scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Variability in Extreme Precipitation in China from Observations and Projections

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 1089 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yifeng Peng ◽  
Xiang Zhao ◽  
Donghai Wu ◽  
Bijian Tang ◽  
Peipei Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
The Past ◽  
Spatiotemporal Characteristics ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Extreme precipitation events, which have intensified with global warming over the past several decades, will become more intense in the future according to model projections. Although many studies have been performed, the occurrence patterns for extreme precipitation events in past and future periods in China remain unresolved. Additionally, few studies have explained how extreme precipitation events developed over the past 58 years and how they will evolve in the next 90 years as global warming becomes much more serious. In this paper, we evaluated the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation events using indices for the frequency, quantity, intensity, and proportion of extreme precipitation, which were proposed by the World Meteorological Organization. We simultaneously analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation in China from 2011 to 2100 using data obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Despite the fixed threshold, 95th percentile precipitation values were also used as the extreme precipitation threshold to reduce the influence of various rainfall events caused by different geographic locations; then, eight extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) were calculated to evaluate extreme precipitation in China. We found that the spatial characteristics of the eight EPIs exhibited downward trends from south to north. In the periods 1960–2017 and 2011–2100, trends in the EPIs were positive, but there were differences between different regions. In the past 58 years, the extreme precipitation increased in the northwest, southeast, and the Tibet Plateau of China, while decreased in northern China. Almost all the trends of EPIs are positive in the next two periods (2011–2055 and 2056–2100) except for some EPIs, such as intensity of extreme precipitation, which decrease in southeastern China in the second period (2056–2100). This study suggests that the frequency of extreme precipitation events in China will progressively increase, which implies that a substantial burden will be placed on social economies and terrestrial ecological processes.

scholarly journals Changes in Intense Precipitation over the Central United States

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavel Ya. Groisman ◽  
Richard W. Knight ◽  
Thomas R. Karl
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
The Past ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Intense Precipitation ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Extreme Rain ◽  
Rain Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract In examining intense precipitation over the central United States, the authors consider only days with precipitation when the daily total is above 12.7 mm and focus only on these days and multiday events constructed from such consecutive precipitation days. Analyses show that over the central United States, a statistically significant redistribution in the spectra of intense precipitation days/events during the past decades has occurred. Moderately heavy precipitation events (within a 12.7–25.4 mm day−1 range) became less frequent compared to days and events with precipitation totals above 25.4 mm. During the past 31 yr (compared to the 1948–78 period), significant increases occurred in the frequency of “very heavy” (the daily rain events above 76.2 mm) and extreme precipitation events (defined as daily and multiday rain events with totals above 154.9 mm or 6 in.), with up to 40% increases in the frequency of days and multiday extreme rain events. Tropical cyclones associated with extreme precipitation do not significantly contribute to the changes reported in this study. With time, the internal precipitation structure (e.g., mean and maximum hourly precipitation rates within each preselected range of daily or multiday event totals) did not noticeably change. Several possible causes of observed changes in intense precipitation over the central United States are discussed and/or tested.

Extreme precipitation events during the South Asian summer monsoon season in the past century

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Renaud Falga ◽  
Chien Wang
Keyword(s):  
South Asian ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Past Century ◽  
South Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
The South ◽  
The Past ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

<p>The South Asian monsoon system impacts the livelihoods of over a billion people. While the overall monsoon rainfall is believed to have decreased during the 20<sup>th</sup> century, there is a good agreement that the extreme precipitation events have been rising in some parts of India. As an important part of the Indian population is dependent on rainfed agriculture, such a rise in extremes, along with resulting flood events, can be all the more problematic. Although studies tend to link this rise in extreme events with anthropogenic forcing, some uncertainties remain on the exact causes. In order to examine the correlation between anthropogenic forcings and the different trends in extreme events, we have analyzed the high-resolution daily rainfall data in the past century delivered by the Indian Meteorological Department alongside several other economic and ecological estimates. The results from this analysis will be presented in detail.</p>

scholarly journals How Well Can IMERG Products Capture Typhoon Extreme Precipitation Events over Southern China?

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chaoying Huang ◽  
Junjun Hu ◽  
Sheng Chen ◽  
Asi Zhang ◽  
Zhenqing Liang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Bias Analysis ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Measurement ◽  
Global Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Events

This study assesses the performance of the latest version 05B (V5B) Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) (IMERG) Early and Final Runs over southern China during six extremely heavy precipitation events brought by six powerful typhoons from 2016 to 2017. Observations from a dense network composed of 2449 rain gauges are used as reference to quantify the performance in terms of spatiotemporal variability, probability distribution of precipitation rates, contingency scores, and bias analysis. The results show that: (1) both IMERG with gauge calibration (IMERG_Cal) and without gauge correction (IMERG_Uncal) generally capture the spatial patterns of storm-accumulated precipitation with moderate to high correlation coefficients (CCs) of 0.57–0.87, and relative bias (RB) varying from −17.21% to 30.58%; (2) IMERG_Uncal and IMERG_Cal capture well the area-average hourly series of precipitation over rainfall centers with high CCs ranging from 0.78 to 0.94; (3) IMERG_Cal tends to underestimate precipitation especially the rainfall over the rainfall centers when compared to IMERG_Uncal. The IMERG Final Run shows promising potentials in typhoon-related extreme precipitation storm applications. This study is expected to give useful feedbacks about the latest V5B Final Run IMERG product to both algorithm developers and the scientific end users, providing a better understanding of how well the V5B IMERG products capture the typhoon extreme precipitation events over southern China.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of Heavy Precipitation Forecasts to Small Modifications of Large-Scale Weather Patterns for the Elbe River

2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 770-780 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ingo Schlüter ◽  
Gerd Schädler
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Synoptic Situation ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract Extreme flood events are caused by long-lasting and/or intensive precipitation. The detailed knowledge of the distribution, intensity, and spatiotemporal variability of precipitation is, therefore, a prerequisite for hydrological flood modeling and flood risk management. For hydrological modeling, temporal and spatial high-resolution precipitation data can be provided by meteorological models. This study deals with the question of how small changes in the synoptic situation affect the characteristics of extreme forecasts. For that purpose, two historic extreme precipitation events were hindcasted using the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling (COSMO) model of the German Weather Service (DWD) with different grid resolutions (28, 7, and 2.8 km), where the domains with finer resolutions were nested into the ones with coarser resolution. The results show that the model is capable of simulating such extreme precipitation events in a satisfactory way. To assess the impact of small changes in the synoptic situations on extreme precipitation events, the large-scale atmospheric fields were shifted to north, south, east, and west with respect to the orography by about 28 and 56 km, respectively, in one series of runs while in another series, the relative humidity and temperature were increased to modify the amount of precipitable water. Both series were performed for the Elbe flood events in August 2002 and January 2003, corresponding to two very different synoptic situations. The results show that the modeled precipitation can be quite sensitive to small changes of the synoptic situation with changes in the order of 20% for the maximum daily precipitation and that the types of synoptic situations play an important role. While van Bebber weather conditions, of Mediterranean origin, were quite sensitive to modifications, more homogeneous weather patterns were less sensitive.

Projected changes in extreme precipitation events over Iran in the 21st century based on CMIP5 models

2020 ◽  
Vol 82 ◽  
pp. 75-95
Author(s):  
M Darand
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Precipitation Events

Climate extremes have large impacts on human societies and natural ecosystems. Projection of changes in climate extremes is very important for long-term planning. The current study investigated future changes in extreme precipitation events over Iran based on 18 CMIP5 models for the period 2006-2100. National gridded data from the Asfazari database were used to evaluate climate model simulation. Results indicate that models with higher spatial resolution (CCSM4 and MRI-CGCM3) perform better than those with lower resolution in capturing the spatial features of extreme precipitation events. Bias correction was applied to the models and the projected changes were assessed with the nonparametric modified Mann-Kendal trend test and Sen slope estimator at a 95% confidence level. Annual total precipitation (PRPCTOT) and rainy days (RD) were projected to decrease but the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes were predicted to increase significantly. The projected decreases were larger in northwestern parts than other regions, with PRPCTOT decreasing by 18 to 22 mm decade-1 and RD by 4 to 4.8 d decade-1. Although there were discrepancies in rates between the models, extreme precipitation events over Iran were generally projected to increase. An increase in consecutive dry days (CDD) was predicted for most regions by the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, with the largest increase of 5 to 6.8 d decade-1 found for northwestern Iran. In eastern areas of Iran, where precipitation occurs extremely rarely, the number of days with daily precipitation exceeding 10 mm (R10) or even 20 mm (R20) were projected to increase significantly. In conclusion, these changes suggest an increased risk of flash floods in Iran from increased extreme precipitation under the RCP8.5 emission scenario.

scholarly journals Extreme Precipitation Events in Chennai Metro City Using Data Mining

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 99-108
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Information Extraction ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Initial Step ◽  
Recent Decade ◽  
The Past ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Precipitation Events

A information mining approach is displayed and connected to examine the climatic reasons for outrageous climatic occasions. Our methodology involves two primary strides of information extraction connected progressively, so as to decrease the trouble of the first informational index. The objective is to recognize an a lot littler subset of climatic factors that may in any case have the option to portray or even anticipate the outrageous occasions. The initial step applies a class correlation strategy. The subsequent advance comprises of a choice tree learning calculation utilized as a prescient model to outline set of measurably most huge atmosphere factors recognized in the past advance to classes of precipitation quality. The procedure is utilized to the investigation the climatic reasons for two outrageous occasions happened in India the most recent decade: the Chennai 2015 extraordinary precipitation disaster and the Tamilnadu(except Chennai) inadequacy of 2016. In the two cases, our outcomes are in great concurrence with investigations distributed in the writing

scholarly journals Impacts of the Sahel-Sahara Interface Reforestation on West African Climate: Intraseasonal Variability and Extreme Precipitation Events

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ibrahima Diba ◽  
Moctar Camara ◽  
Alioune Badara Sarr
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Summer Rainfall ◽  
Maximum Length ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Content Increase ◽  
Atmospheric Moisture ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

This study aims to evaluate the impacts of the Sahel-Sahara interface reforestation on spatiotemporal variability of the summer rainfall and extreme precipitation events over West Africa using the RegCM4 model. The land surface scheme of RegCM4 was modified to incorporate an East-West reforested zone (15°N and 20°N). Two runs were performed using the standard version of RegCM4 and the modified one of the same model taking into account the incorporated forest. The reforestation significantly modifies rainfall signal over West Africa by increasing it over the reforested zone and the Fouta Jallon highlands (FJH). This rainfall increase is associated with a strengthening of the atmospheric moisture over the reforested area. This atmospheric moisture content increase associated with the wind dynamic may explain the spatiotemporal change of the rainfall and extreme precipitation events. The analysis of the impacts of the reforestation on some rainfall indices shows an increase of the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles over the reforested zone and off the FJH. This reforestation also causes an increase of the maximum length of the consecutive wet days over and off FJH and a decrease of the maximum length of the consecutive dry days over the northern Sahel and the reforested zone.

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