Assessing the performance of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR5 climate models in simulating and projecting wind speeds over China

AbstractThe time scales of the Paris Climate Agreement indicate urgent action is required on climate policies over the next few decades, in order to avoid the worst risks posed by climate change. On these relatively short time scales the combined effect of climate variability and change are both key drivers of extreme events, with decadal time scales also important for infrastructure planning. Hence, in order to assess climate risk on such time scales, we require climate models to be able to represent key aspects of both internally driven climate variability and the response to changing forcings. In this paper we argue that we now have the modeling capability to address these requirements—specifically with global models having horizontal resolutions considerably enhanced from those typically used in previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exercises. The improved representation of weather and climate processes in such models underpins our enhanced confidence in predictions and projections, as well as providing improved forcing to regional models, which are better able to represent local-scale extremes (such as convective precipitation). We choose the global water cycle as an illustrative example because it is governed by a chain of processes for which there is growing evidence of the benefits of higher resolution. At the same time it comprises key processes involved in many of the expected future climate extremes (e.g., flooding, drought, tropical and midlatitude storms).

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Atmospheric Blocking and Mean Biases in Climate Models

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/2010jcli3728.1 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 23 (23) ◽

pp. 6143-6152 ◽

Cited By ~ 134

Author(s):

Adam A. Scaife ◽

Tim Woollings ◽

Jeff Knight ◽

Gill Martin ◽

Tim Hinton

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Horizontal Resolution ◽

Small Scale ◽

Model Data ◽

Atmospheric Blocking ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Weather And Climate ◽

Main Culprit

Abstract Models often underestimate blocking in the Atlantic and Pacific basins and this can lead to errors in both weather and climate predictions. Horizontal resolution is often cited as the main culprit for blocking errors due to poorly resolved small-scale variability, the upscale effects of which help to maintain blocks. Although these processes are important for blocking, the authors show that much of the blocking error diagnosed using common methods of analysis and current climate models is directly attributable to the climatological bias of the model. This explains a large proportion of diagnosed blocking error in models used in the recent Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change report. Furthermore, greatly improved statistics are obtained by diagnosing blocking using climate model data corrected to account for mean model biases. To the extent that mean biases may be corrected in low-resolution models, this suggests that such models may be able to generate greatly improved levels of atmospheric blocking.

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An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society ◽

10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 93 (4) ◽

pp. 485-498 ◽

Cited By ~ 8089

Author(s):

Karl E. Taylor ◽

Ronald J. Stouffer ◽

Gerald A. Meehl

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Global Climate ◽

Experiment Design ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Model Output ◽

Earth System ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

System Models ◽

Earth System Models

The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) will produce a state-of-the- art multimodel dataset designed to advance our knowledge of climate variability and climate change. Researchers worldwide are analyzing the model output and will produce results likely to underlie the forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Unprecedented in scale and attracting interest from all major climate modeling groups, CMIP5 includes “long term” simulations of twentieth-century climate and projections for the twenty-first century and beyond. Conventional atmosphere–ocean global climate models and Earth system models of intermediate complexity are for the first time being joined by more recently developed Earth system models under an experiment design that allows both types of models to be compared to observations on an equal footing. Besides the longterm experiments, CMIP5 calls for an entirely new suite of “near term” simulations focusing on recent decades and the future to year 2035. These “decadal predictions” are initialized based on observations and will be used to explore the predictability of climate and to assess the forecast system's predictive skill. The CMIP5 experiment design also allows for participation of stand-alone atmospheric models and includes a variety of idealized experiments that will improve understanding of the range of model responses found in the more complex and realistic simulations. An exceptionally comprehensive set of model output is being collected and made freely available to researchers through an integrated but distributed data archive. For researchers unfamiliar with climate models, the limitations of the models and experiment design are described.

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Timothy yield and nutritive value with a three-harvest system under the projected future climate in Canada

Canadian Journal of Plant Science ◽

10.4141/cjps2013-279 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 94 (2) ◽

pp. 213-222 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

Qi Jing ◽

Gilles Bélanger ◽

Budong Qian ◽

Vern Baron

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Nutritive Value ◽

Climate Models ◽

Phleum Pratense ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Future Climate ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Stochastic Weather Generator ◽

The Impact

Jing, Q., Bélanger, G., Qian, B. and Baron, V. 2014. Timothy yield and nutritive value with a three-harvest system under the projected future climate in Canada. Can. J. Plant Sci. 94: 213–222. Timothy (Phleum pratense L.) is harvested twice annually in Canada but with projected climate change, an additional harvest may be possible. Our objective was to evaluate the impact on timothy dry matter (DM) yield and key nutritive value attributes of shifting from a two- to a three-harvest system under projected future climate conditions at 10 sites across Canada. Future climate scenarios were generated with a stochastic weather generator (AAFC-WG) using two global climate models under the forcing of two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios and, then, used by the CATIMO (Canadian Timothy Model) grass model to simulate DM yield and key nutritive value attributes. Under future climate scenarios (2040–2069), the additional harvest and the resulting three-harvest system are expected to increase annual DM yield (+0.46 to +2.47 Mg DM ha−1) compared with a two-harvest system across Canada but the yield increment will on average be greater in eastern Canada (1.88 Mg DM ha−1) and Agassiz (2.02 Mg DM ha−1) than in the prairie provinces of Canada (0.84 Mg DM ha−1). The DM yield of the first harvest in a three-harvest system is expected to be less than in the two-harvest system, while that of the second harvest would be greater. Decreases in average neutral detergent fibre (NDF) concentration (−19 g kg−1 DM) and digestibility (dNDF, −5 g kg−1 NDF) are also expected with the three-harvest system under future conditions. Our results indicate that timothy will take advantage of projected climate change, through taking a third harvest, thereby increasing annual DM production.

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Assessment of the impacts of climate change on maize production in the Wami Ruvu basin of Tanzania

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2016.055 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

pp. 142-164 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Philbert Luhunga ◽

Ladslaus Chang'a ◽

George Djolov

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Lower Altitude ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Maize Yields ◽

The Impact ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) assessment reports confirm that climate change will hit developing countries the hardest. Adaption is on the agenda of many countries around the world. However, before devising adaption strategies, it is crucial to assess and understand the impacts of climate change at regional and local scales. In this study, the impact of climate change on rain-fed maize (Zea mays) production in the Wami-Ruvu basin of Tanzania was evaluated using the Decision Support System for Agro-technological Transfer. The model was fed with daily minimum and maximum temperatures, rainfall and solar radiation for current climate conditions (1971–2000) as well as future climate projections (2010–2099) for two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. These data were derived from three high-resolution regional climate models, used in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment program. Results showed that due to climate change future maize yields over the Wami-Ruvu basin will slightly increase relative to the baseline during the current century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. However, maize yields will decline in the mid and end centuries. The spatial distribution showed that high decline in maize yields are projected over lower altitude regions due to projected increase in temperatures in those areas.

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Detection of large above-ground biomass variability in lowland forest ecosystems by airborne LiDAR

Biogeosciences ◽

10.5194/bg-10-3917-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 10 (6) ◽

pp. 3917-3930 ◽

Cited By ~ 28

Author(s):

J. Jubanski ◽

U. Ballhorn ◽

K. Kronseder ◽

F. Siegert ◽

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Forest Type ◽

Airborne Lidar ◽

Above Ground Biomass ◽

Inventory Data ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Lowland Forest ◽

Change Models ◽

Ground Biomass

Abstract. Quantification of tropical forest above-ground biomass (AGB) over large areas as input for Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) projects and climate change models is challenging. This is the first study which attempts to estimate AGB and its variability across large areas of tropical lowland forests in Central Kalimantan (Indonesia) through correlating airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) to forest inventory data. Two LiDAR height metrics were analysed, and regression models could be improved through the use of LiDAR point densities as input (R2 = 0.88; n = 52). Surveying with a LiDAR point density per square metre of about 4 resulted in the best cost / benefit ratio. We estimated AGB for 600 km of LiDAR tracks and showed that there exists a considerable variability of up to 140% within the same forest type due to varying environmental conditions. Impact from logging operations and the associated AGB losses dating back more than 10 yr could be assessed by LiDAR but not by multispectral satellite imagery. Comparison with a Landsat classification for a 1 million ha study area where AGB values were based on site-specific field inventory data, regional literature estimates, and default values by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) showed an overestimation of 43%, 102%, and 137%, respectively. The results show that AGB overestimation may lead to wrong greenhouse gas (GHG) emission estimates due to deforestation in climate models. For REDD+ projects this leads to inaccurate carbon stock estimates and consequently to significantly wrong REDD+ based compensation payments.

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The Impact of Stratospheric Ozone Recovery on Tropopause Height Trends

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/2008jcli2215.1 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 22 (2) ◽

pp. 429-445 ◽

Cited By ~ 55

Author(s):

Seok-Woo Son ◽

Lorenzo M. Polvani ◽

Darryn W. Waugh ◽

Thomas Birner ◽

Hideharu Akiyoshi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Southern Hemisphere ◽

Climate Models ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Reliable Estimate ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

The Future ◽

Realistic Representation ◽

High Vertical Resolution ◽

The Impact

Abstract The evolution of the tropopause in the past, present, and future climate is examined by analyzing a set of long-term integrations with stratosphere-resolving chemistry climate models (CCMs). These CCMs have high vertical resolution near the tropopause, a model top located in the mesosphere or above, and, most important, fully interactive stratospheric chemistry. Using such CCM integrations, it is found that the tropopause pressure (height) will continue to decrease (increase) in the future, but with a trend weaker than that in the recent past. The reduction in the future tropopause trend is shown to be directly associated with stratospheric ozone recovery. A significant ozone recovery occurs in the Southern Hemisphere lower stratosphere of the CCMs, and this leads to a relative warming there that reduces the tropopause trend in the twenty-first century. The future tropopause trends predicted by the CCMs are considerably smaller than those predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) models, especially in the southern high latitudes. This difference persists even when the CCMs are compared with the subset of the AR4 model integrations for which stratospheric ozone recovery was prescribed. These results suggest that a realistic representation of the stratospheric processes might be important for a reliable estimate of tropopause trends. The implications of these finding for the Southern Hemisphere climate change are also discussed.

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Twentieth-Century Surface Air Temperature over China and the Globe Simulated by Coupled Climate Models

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli3952.1 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 19 (22) ◽

pp. 5843-5858 ◽

Cited By ~ 220

Author(s):

Tianjun Zhou ◽

Rucong Yu

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Twentieth Century ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Climate Models ◽

Eastern China ◽

Surface Air Temperature ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Coupled Climate Models ◽

Anthropogenic Forcings

Abstract This paper examines variations of the surface air temperature (SAT) over China and the globe in the twentieth century simulated by 19 coupled climate models driven by historical natural and anthropogenic forcings. Most models perform well in simulating both the global and the Northern Hemispheric mean SAT evolutions of the twentieth century. The inclusion of natural forcings improves the simulation, in particular for the first half of the century. The reproducibility of the SAT averaged over China is lower than that of the global and hemispheric averages, but it is still acceptable. The contribution of natural forcings to the SAT over China in the first half of the century is not as robust as that to the global and hemispheric averages. No model could successfully produce the reconstructed warming over China in the 1920s. The prescribed natural and anthropogenic forcings in the coupled climate models mainly produce the warming trends and the decadal- to interdecadal-scale SAT variations with poor performances at shorter time scales. The prominent warming trend in the last half of the century over China and its acceleration in recent decades are weakly simulated. There are discrepancies between the simulated and observed regional features of the SAT trend over China. Few models could produce the summertime cooling over the middle part of eastern China (27°–36°N), while two models acceptably produce the meridional gradients of the wintertime warming trends, with north China experiencing larger warming. Limitations of the current state-of-the-art coupled climate models in simulating spatial patterns of the twentieth-century SAT over China cast a shadow upon their capability toward projecting credible geographical distributions of future climate change through Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario simulations.

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Assessing the Impact of Projected Climate Change on Zoo Visitation in Toronto (Canada)

Journal of Geography and Geology ◽

10.5539/jgg.v8n2p30 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 8 (2) ◽

pp. 30 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Micah J. Hewer ◽

William A. Gough

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Local Climate ◽

The Impact

Weather and climate have been widely recognised as having an important influence on tourism and recreational activities. However, the nature of these relationships varies depending on the type, timing and location of these activities. Climate change is expected to have considerable and diverse impacts on recreation and tourism. Nonetheless, the potential impact of climate change on zoo visitation has yet to be assessed in a scientific manner. This case study begins by establishing the baseline conditions and statistical relationship between weather and zoo visitation in Toronto, Canada. Regression analysis, relying on historical weather and visitation data, measured at the daily time scale, formed the basis for this analysis. Climate change projections relied on output produced by Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2013 Fifth Assessment Report, ranked and selected using the herein defined Selective Ensemble Approach. This seasonal GCM output was then used to inform daily, local, climate change scenarios, generated using Statistical Down-Scaling Model Version 5.2. A series of seasonal models were then used to assess the impact of projected climate change on zoo visitation. While accounting for the negative effects of precipitation and extreme heat, the models suggested that annual visitation to the zoo will likely increase over the course of the 21st century due to projected climate change: from +8% in the 2020s to +18% by the 2080s, for the least change scenario; and from +8% in the 2020s to +34% in the 2080s, for the greatest change scenario. The majority of the positive impact of projected climate change on zoo visitation in Toronto will likely occur in the shoulder season (spring and fall); with only moderate increases in the off season (winter) and potentially negative impacts associated with the peak season (summer), especially if warming exceeds 3.5 °C.

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Abrupt Circulation Responses to Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Warming in a Relatively Simple Stratosphere-Resolving AGCM

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-11-00166.1 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 25 (12) ◽

pp. 4097-4115 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

Shuguang Wang ◽

Edwin P. Gerber ◽

Lorenzo M. Polvani

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

General Circulation ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Polar Vortex ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Hadley Cell ◽

Critical Threshold ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Upper Troposphere

Abstract The circulation response of the atmosphere to climate change–like thermal forcing is explored with a relatively simple, stratosphere-resolving general circulation model. The model is forced with highly idealized physics, but integrates the primitive equations at resolution comparable to comprehensive climate models. An imposed forcing mimics the warming induced by greenhouse gasses in the low-latitude upper troposphere. The forcing amplitude is progressively increased over a range comparable in magnitude to the warming projected by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change coupled climate model scenarios. For weak to moderate warming, the circulation response is remarkably similar to that found in comprehensive models: the Hadley cell widens and weakens, the tropospheric midlatitude jets shift poleward, and the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) increases. However, when the warming of the tropical upper troposphere exceeds a critical threshold, ~5 K, an abrupt change of the atmospheric circulation is observed. In the troposphere the extratropical eddy-driven jet jumps poleward nearly 10°. In the stratosphere the polar vortex intensifies and the BDC weakens as the intraseasonal coupling between the troposphere and the stratosphere shuts down. The key result of this study is that an abrupt climate transition can be effected by changes in atmospheric dynamics alone, without need for the strong nonlinearities typically associated with physical parameterizations. It is verified that the abrupt climate shift reported here is not an artifact of the model’s resolution or numerics.

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