Hysteresis of tropical forests in the 21st century

Abstract Tropical forests modify the conditions they depend on through feedbacks at different spatial scales. These feedbacks shape the hysteresis (history-dependence) of tropical forests, thus controlling their resilience to deforestation and response to climate change. Here, we determine the emergent hysteresis from local-scale tipping points and regional-scale forest-rainfall feedbacks across the tropics under the recent climate and a severe climate-change scenario. By integrating remote sensing, a global hydrological model, and detailed atmospheric moisture tracking simulations, we find that forest-rainfall feedback expands the geographic range of possible forest distributions, especially in the Amazon. The Amazon forest could partially recover from complete deforestation, but may lose that resilience later this century. The Congo forest currently lacks resilience, but is predicted to gain it under climate change, whereas forests in Australasia are resilient under both current and future climates. Our results show how tropical forests shape their own distributions and create the climatic conditions that enable them.

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Hysteresis of tropical forests in the 21st century

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-7217 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Arie Staal ◽

Ingo Fetzer ◽

Lan Wang-Erlandsson ◽

Joyce Bosmans ◽

Stefan Dekker ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Tropical Forests ◽

Spatial Scales ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Amazon Forest ◽

Recent Climate ◽

Severe Climate Change ◽

The Tropics

Tropical forests modify the conditions they depend on through feedbacks on different spatial scales. These feedbacks shape the hysteresis (history-dependence) of tropical forests, thus controlling their resilience to deforestation and response to climate change. Here we present the emergent hysteresis from local-scale tipping points and regional-scale forest-rainfall feedbacks across the tropics under the recent climate and a severe climate-change scenario. By integrating remote sensing, a global hydrological model, and detailed atmospheric moisture tracking simulations, we find that forest-rainfall feedback expands the range of possible forest distributions especially in the Amazon. The Amazon forest could partially recover from complete deforestation, but may lose that resilience later this century. The Congo forest lacks resilience, but gains it under climate change, whereas forests in Australasia are resilient under both current and future climates. Our results show how tropical forests shape their own distributions and create the climatic conditions that enable them.

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Natural durability and improved resistance of 20 Amazonian wood species after 30 years in ground contact

Holzforschung ◽

10.1515/hf-2020-0192 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 0 (0) ◽

Author(s):

Fernando Nunes Gouveia ◽

Marcelo Fontana da Silveira ◽

Alencar Garlet

Keyword(s):

Wood Species ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Natural Durability ◽

Amazon Forest ◽

Ground Contact ◽

Forest Environment ◽

Ground Test ◽

The Tropics ◽

Dipteryx Odorata ◽

Copper Arsenate

Abstract This study aimed to assess the natural durability of 20 Amazonian wood species preserved with chromated copper arsenate (CCA) after 30 years in ground contact in an experimental field test at National Forest of Tapajós, Pará state - Brazil. Heartwood samples with a cross-section of 5 × 5 cm and 50 cm of length were half-buried in soil and inspected every year for decay. The species were classified according to natural durability following the classification method proposed by Findlay (Findlay, W.P.K. (1985). The nature and durability of wood. In: Findlay, W.P.K. (Ed.), Preservation of timber in the tropics. Springer Science, Whitchurch, pp. 1–13). After 30 years in ground test, six species were classified as Perishable, seven as Non-durable, three as Durable and four as Very durable, namely: Trichilia lecointei, Lecythis pisonis, Pseudopiptadenia suaveolens, and Dipteryx odorata (Very durable), Protium tenuifolium, Dinizia excelsa, and Ormosia paraensis (Durable), Endopleura uchi, Goupia glabra, Pouteria egregia, Tachigali chrysophylla, Tachigali paraensis, Vatairea sericea, and Vochysia maxima (Non-durable) and Chrysophyllum lucentifolium, Couratari oblongifolia, Didymopanax morototoni, Lueheopsis duckeana, Sterculia excelsa, and Xylopia nitida (Perishable). CCA preservative treatment was effective to promote timber protection, even under harsh climatic conditions of the Amazon forest environment.

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Global warming in Amazonia: impacts and Mitigation

Acta Amazonica ◽

10.1590/s0044-59672009000400030 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 39 (4) ◽

pp. 1003-1011 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Philip Martin Fearnside

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Forest Fires ◽

El Niño ◽

El Nino ◽

Cost Effective ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Carbon Accounting ◽

Amazon Forest ◽

Temperature Oscillations

Global warming has potentially catastrophic impacts in Amazonia, while at the same time maintenance of the Amazon forest offers one of the most valuable and cost-effective options for mitigating climate change. We know that the El Niño phenomenon, caused by temperature oscillations of surface water in the Pacific, has serious impacts in Amazonia, causing droughts and forest fires (as in 1997-1998). Temperature oscillations in the Atlantic also provoke severe droughts (as in 2005). We also know that Amazonian trees die both from fires and from water stress under hot, dry conditions. In addition, water recycled through the forest provides rainfall that maintains climatic conditions appropriate for tropical forest, especially in the dry season. What we need to know quickly, through intensified research, includes progress in representing El Niño and the Atlantic oscillations in climatic models, representation of biotic feedbacks in models used for decision-making about global warming, and narrowing the range of estimating climate sensitivity to reduce uncertainty about the probability of very severe impacts. Items that need to be negotiated include the definition of "dangerous" climate change, with the corresponding maximum levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mitigation of global warming must include maintaining the Amazon forest, which has benefits for combating global warming from two separate roles: cutting the flow the emissions of carbon each year from the rapid pace of deforestation, and avoiding emission of the stock of carbon in the remaining forest that can be released by various ways, including climate change itself. Barriers to rewarding forest maintenance include the need for financial rewards for both of these roles. Other needs are for continued reduction of uncertainty regarding emissions and deforestation processes, as well as agreement on the basis of carbon accounting. As one of the countries most subject to impacts of climate change, Brazil must assume the leadership in fighting global warming.

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Wind waves in the Adriatic Sea under a severe climate change scenario and implications for the coasts

International Journal of Climatology ◽

10.1002/joc.6524 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 40 (12) ◽

pp. 5389-5406 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Davide Bonaldo ◽

Edoardo Bucchignani ◽

Angela Pomaro ◽

Antonio Ricchi ◽

Mauro Sclavo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenario ◽

Adriatic Sea ◽

Wind Waves ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Severe Climate Change

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SMOS-IC L-VOD reveals that tropical forests did not recover from the strong 2015–2016 El Niño event

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-4020 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Lei Fan ◽

Jean-pierre Wigneron ◽

Philippe Ciais ◽

Ana Bastos ◽

Martin Brandt ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Tropical Forests ◽

Land Surface ◽

Atmospheric Transport ◽

Low Frequency ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Severe Drought ◽

Global Carbon Budget ◽

Large Spread ◽

The Tropics ◽

Atmospheric Inversions

Severe drought and extreme heat associated with the 2015&#8211;2016 El Ni&#241;o event have led to large carbon emissions from the tropical vegetation to the atmosphere. With the return to normal climatic conditions in 2017, tropical forest aboveground carbon (AGC) stocks are expected to partly recover due to increased productivity, but the intensity and spatial distribution of this recovery are unknown. Simulations from land-surface models used in the global carbon budget (GCB) suggest a strong reinvigoration of the tropical land sink after the 2015&#8211;2016 El Ni&#241;o. However, models and atmospheric inversions display large divergences in tropical CO2 fluxes during the 2017 recovery event. For instance, models predict a total net land sink recovery (2017 sink minus the 2015&#8211;2016 average sink) ranging from 0.3 to 2.6 Pg C, and the land sink recovery estimated from five atmospheric inversions ranges from &#8722;0.08 to +1.92 Pg C. The results of different inversions show a large spread in the tropics due to the scarcity of stations and uncertainties in atmospheric transport simulations.We used low-frequency microwave satellite data (L-VOD) to feature precise monitoring of AGC changes and show that the AGC recovery of tropical ecosystems was slow and that by the end of 2017, AGC had not reached predrought levels of 20141. From 2014 to 2017, tropical AGC stocks decreased by 1.3 Pg C due to persistent AGC losses in Africa (-0.9 Pg C) and America (-0.5 Pg C). Pantropically, drylands recovered their carbon stocks to pre&#8211;El Ni&#241;o levels, but African and American humid forests did not, suggesting carryover effects from enhanced forest mortality.&#160;Reference<ol><li>J.-P. Wigneron, L. Fan, P. Ciais, A. Bastos, M. Brandt, J. Chave, S. Saatchi, A. Baccini, R. Fensholt, Tropical forests did not recover from the strong 2015&#8211;2016 El Ni&#241;o event. Science Advances. 6, eaay4603 (2020).</li> </ol>

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Influence of future climate and cropland expansion on isoprene emissions and tropospheric ozone

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-14-1011-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 14 (2) ◽

pp. 1011-1024 ◽

Cited By ~ 23

Author(s):

O. J. Squire ◽

A. T. Archibald ◽

N. L. Abraham ◽

D. J. Beerling ◽

C. N. Hewitt ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

21St Century ◽

Tropospheric Ozone ◽

Climate Model ◽

Anthropogenic Emissions ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Dynamic Global Vegetation Model ◽

The Tropics

Abstract. Over the 21st century, changes in CO2 levels, climate and land use are expected to alter the global distribution of vegetation, leading to changes in trace gas emissions from plants, including, importantly, the emissions of isoprene. This, combined with changes in anthropogenic emissions, has the potential to impact tropospheric ozone levels, which above a certain level are harmful to animals and vegetation. In this study we use a biogenic emissions model following the empirical parameterisation of the MEGAN model, with vegetation distributions calculated by the Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (SDGVM) to explore a range of potential future (2095) changes in isoprene emissions caused by changes in climate (including natural land use changes), land use, and the inhibition of isoprene emissions by CO2. From the present-day (2000) value of 467 Tg C yr−1, we find that the combined impact of these factors could cause a net decrease in isoprene emissions of 259 Tg C yr−1 (55%) with individual contributions of +78 Tg C yr−1 (climate change), −190 Tg C yr−1 (land use) and −147 Tg C yr−1 (CO2 inhibition). Using these isoprene emissions and changes in anthropogenic emissions, a series of integrations is conducted with the UM-UKCA chemistry-climate model with the aim of examining changes in ozone over the 21st century. Globally, all combined future changes cause a decrease in the tropospheric ozone burden of 27 Tg (7%) from 379 Tg in the present-day. At the surface, decreases in ozone of 6–10 ppb are calculated over the oceans and developed northern hemispheric regions, due to reduced NOx transport by PAN and reductions in NOx emissions in these areas respectively. Increases of 4–6 ppb are calculated in the continental tropics due to cropland expansion in these regions, increased CO2 inhibition of isoprene emissions, and higher temperatures due to climate change. These effects outweigh the decreases in tropical ozone caused by increased tropical isoprene emissions with climate change. Our land use change scenario consists of cropland expansion, which is most pronounced in the tropics. The tropics are also where land use change causes the greatest increases in ozone. As such there is potential for increased crop exposure to harmful levels of ozone. However, we find that these ozone increases are still not large enough to raise ozone to such damaging levels.

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Systemic range shift lags among a pollinator species assemblage following rapid climate change1This article is part of a Special Issue entitled “Pollination biology research in Canada: Perspectives on a mutualism at different scales”.

Botany ◽

10.1139/b2012-052 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 90 (7) ◽

pp. 587-597 ◽

Cited By ~ 16

Author(s):

Felicity E. Bedford ◽

Robert J. Whittaker ◽

Jeremy T. Kerr

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Range Shift ◽

Range Shifts ◽

Geographical Range ◽

Large Species ◽

Species Assemblage ◽

Mobile Species ◽

Recent Climate ◽

Winter Temperatures

Contemporary climate change is driving widespread geographical range shifts among many species. If species are tracking changing climate successfully, then leading populations should experience similar climatic conditions through time as new populations establish beyond historical range margins. Here, we investigate geographical range shifts relative to changing climatic conditions among a particularly well-sampled assemblage of butterflies in Canada. We assembled observations of 81 species and measured their latitudinal displacement between two periods: 1960–1975 (a period of little climate change) and 1990–2005 (a period with large climate change). We find an unexpected trend for species’ northern borders to shift progressively less relative to increasing minimum winter temperatures in northern Canada. This study demonstrates a novel, systemic latitudinal gradient in lags among a large species assemblage in responses to recent climate change. Even among the most mobile species and without anthropogenic barriers to dispersal, these pollinators have been unable to extend their ranges as fast as required to keep pace with climate change.

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Regional aspects of global climate change simulations : Validation and assessment of climate response over Indian monsoon region to transient increase of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols

MAUSAM ◽

10.54302/mausam.v52i1.1691 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 52 (1) ◽

pp. 229-244

Author(s):

K. RUPA KUMAR ◽

R. G. ASHRIT

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Greenhouse Gases ◽

General Circulation ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Ocean General Circulation Model ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Sulfate Aerosols ◽

Monsoon Climate

The regional climatic impacts associated with global climatic change and their assessment are very important since agriculture, water resources, ecology etc., are all vulnerable to climatic changes on regional scale. Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations provide a range of scenarios, which can be used, for the assessment of impacts and development of adaptive or mitigative strategies. Validation of the models against the observations and establishing the sensitivity to climate change forcing are essential before the model projections are used for assessment of possible impacts. Moreover model simulated climate projections are often of coarse resolution while the models used for impact assessment, (e.g. crop simulation models, or river runoff models etc.) operate on a higher spatial resolution. This spatial mismatch can be overcome by adopting an appropriate strategy of downscaling the GCM output. This study examines two AOGCM (ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HadCM2) climate change simulations for their performance in the simulation of monsoon climate over India and the sensitivity of the simulated monsoon climate to transient changes in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols. The results show that the two models simulate the gross features of climate over India reasonably well. However the inter-model differences in simulation of mean characteristics, sensitivity to forcing and in the simulation of climate change suggest need for caution. Further an empirical downscaling approach in used to assess the possibility of using GCM projections for preparation of regional climate change scenario for India.

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Recent climate change affecting rainstorm occurrences: a case study in East China

Climate of the Past ◽

10.5194/cp-4-303-2008 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 4 (4) ◽

pp. 303-309 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

M. Domroes ◽

D. Schaefer

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenario ◽

Practical Importance ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Subtropical China ◽

Weather Events ◽

Recent Climate ◽

Direct Linkage ◽

Increasing Trends

Abstract. The paper aims to investigate the occurrences of rainstorms and their relationship with the climate change scenario. The study period under investigation refers to the period of greatest recent warming between 1976–2000 whereas the study area covers China east of 105 E longitude. This region is commonly considered to be controlled by the monsoon type of climate over East Asia. Positive (increasing) trends of rainstorm occurrences, both in annual and summer respects, have been shown for subtropical China whereas a non-uniform picture is associated with temperate China. The increase of rainstorms in subtropical China corresponds with an increasing trend of precipitation. At the same time, subtropical China experiences a mostly decreasing recent temperature change. No clear evidence could, however, be proved for a direct linkage between increasing temperatures and greater rainstorm occurrences. Within the climate change scenario a great risk of rainstorm occurrences must be regarded as part of the increasing risk of extreme weather events. Rainstorm occurrences are of a great practical importance as they increase the risk for environmental hazards such as landslides, landslips and floods. Landuse planners must therefore pay a great attention to an increasing number of rainstorms and their adverse risk impact on the environment. Such practical aspects need particular attention in subtropical China as the region of largest increase of rainstorm occurrences and where, at the same time, the mountains and hilly landscapes are particularly hazard-prone to landslides and floods.

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1.5°C Hotspots: Climate Hazards, Vulnerabilities, and Impacts

Annual Review of Environment and Resources ◽

10.1146/annurev-environ-102017-025835 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 43 (1) ◽

pp. 135-163 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Carl-Friedrich Schleussner ◽

Delphine Deryng ◽

Sarah D'haen ◽

William Hare ◽

Tabea Lissner ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Scientific Evidence ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Sub Saharan Africa ◽

Global Mean Temperature ◽

Climate Hazards ◽

The Difference ◽

Sub Saharan ◽

The Tropics

Differentiating the impacts of climate change between 1.5°C and 2°C requires a regional and sector-specific perspective. Whereas for some regions and sectors the difference in climate variables might be indistinguishable from natural variability, other areas especially in the tropics and subtropics will experience significant shifts. In addition to region-specific changes in climatic conditions, vulnerability and exposure also differ substantially across the world. Even small differences in climate hazards can translate into sizeable impact differences for particularly vulnerable regions or sectors. Here, we review scientific evidence of regional differences in climate hazards at 1.5°C and 2°C and provide an assessment of selected hotspots of climate change, including small islands as well as rural, urban, and coastal areas in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, that are particularly affected by the additional 0.5°C global mean temperature increase. We interlink these with a review of the vulnerability and exposure literature related to these hotspots to provide an integrated perspective on the differences in climate impacts between 1.5°C and 2°C.

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