scholarly journals Mathematical model of COVID-19 intervention scenarios for São Paulo—Brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Osmar Pinto Neto ◽  
Deanna M. Kennedy ◽  
José Clark Reis ◽  
Yiyu Wang ◽  
Ana Carolina Brisola Brizzi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Algorithm Design ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Protective Behavior ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Multi Objective Genetic Algorithm

AbstractWith COVID-19 surging across the world, understanding the effectiveness of intervention strategies on transmission dynamics is of primary global health importance. Here, we develop and analyze an epidemiological compartmental model using multi-objective genetic algorithm design optimization to compare scenarios related to strategy type, the extent of social distancing, time window, and personal protection levels on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in São Paulo, Brazil. The results indicate that the optimal strategy for São Paulo is to reduce social distancing over time with a stepping-down reduction in the magnitude of social distancing every 80-days. Our results also indicate that the ability to reduce social distancing depends on a 5–10% increase in the current percentage of people strictly following protective guidelines, highlighting the importance of protective behavior in controlling the pandemic. Our framework can be extended to model transmission dynamics for other countries, regions, states, cities, and organizations.

scholarly journals Mathematical model of COVID-19 intervention scenarios for São Paulo-Brazil

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Osmar Pinto Neto ◽  
José Clark Reis ◽  
Ana Carolina Brisola Brizzi ◽  
Gustavo José Zambrano ◽  
Joabe Marcos de Souza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Optimal Solutions ◽  
Personal Protection ◽  
Protective Behavior ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Oscillatory Level

AbstractAn epidemiological compartmental model was used to simulate social distancing strategies to contain the COVID-19 pandemic and prevent a second wave in São Paulo, Brazil. Optimization using genetic algorithm was used to determine the optimal solutions. Our results suggest the best-case strategy for São Paulo is to maintain or increase the current magnitude of social distancing for at least 60 more days and increase the current levels of personal protection behaviors by a minimum of 10% (e.g., wearing facemasks, proper hand hygiene and avoid agglomeration). Followed by a long-term oscillatory level of social distancing with a stepping-down approach every 80 days over a period of two years with continued protective behavior.

scholarly journals Mathematical model of COVID-19 intervention scenarios for São Paulo- Brazil

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Osmar Pinto Neto ◽  
José Clark Reis ◽  
Ana Carolina Brisola Brizzi ◽  
Gustavo José Zambrano ◽  
Joabe Marcos de Souza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Optimal Solutions ◽  
Personal Protection ◽  
Protective Behavior ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Oscillatory Level

Abstract An epidemiological compartmental model was used to simulate social distancing strategies to contain the COVID-19 pandemic and prevent a second wave in São Paulo, Brazil. Optimization using genetic algorithm was used to determine the optimal solutions. Our results suggest the best-case strategy for São Paulo is to maintain or increase the current magnitude of social distancing for at least 60 more days and increase the current levels of personal protection behaviors by a minimum of 10% (e.g., wearing facemasks, proper hand hygiene and avoid agglomeration). Followed by a long-term oscillatory level of social distancing with a stepping-down approach every 80 days over a period of two years with continued protective behavior.

scholarly journals Impact of nonpharmaceutical strategies on trends of COVID-19 in São Paulo State

2021 ◽  
Vol 55 ◽  
pp. 48
Author(s):  
Cristiane Ravagnani Fortaleza ◽  
Thomas Nogueira Vilches ◽  
Gabriel Berg de Almeida ◽  
Claudia Pio Ferreira ◽  
Lenice do Rosário de Souza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Paulo State ◽  
São Paulo State ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mandatory Use

Interrupted time series analyses were conducted to measure the impact of social distancing policies (instituted on March 22, 2020) and of subsequent mandatory masking in the community (instituted on May 4, 2020) on the incidence and effective reproductive number of COVID-19 in São Paulo State, Brazil. Overall, the impact of social distancing both on incidence and Rt was greater than the incremental effect of mandatory masking. Those findings may reflect either a small impact of face masking or the loosening of social distancing after mandatory use of masks.

scholarly journals 90 Days of COVID-19 Social Distancing and Its Impacts on Air Quality and Health in Sao Paulo, Brazil

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniela Debone ◽  
Mariana da Costa ◽  
Simone Miraglia
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Quality Improvement ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Premature Deaths ◽  
Health Loss ◽  
Air Quality Improvement ◽  
Concentration Levels

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic caused by spreading rapidly a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has imposed a unique situation for the humanity. Sao Paulo has reported 124,105 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 5,623 deaths up to June 14th, being considered the epicenter of the pandemic in Brazil and in South America. Due to the measures for social distancing, there was a drop in the air pollution concentration in Sao Paulo. Starting on March 16th, 2020, we broke 90 days of social distancing into 13 weeks and compared to an equivalent period in 2019. We investigated the air quality improvement during the quarantine period and compared the associated avoided deaths to COVID-19 burden deaths. Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) was the best indicator of air quality in the analyzed weeks, since its reduction reached 58 %. Our study showed that the 5,623 deaths occurred during the analyzed weeks of quarantine represents an economic health loss of US$ 10.5 billion. In opposite, we observed a significant air quality improvement due to pollutants concentrations’ reductions during the analyzed weeks. Considering PM10, PM2.5 and NO2, the decrease of concentration levels respectively avoided 78, 337 and 387 premature deaths and prevented up to US$ 1.5 billion on health costs. These results highlight the importance of continuing to enforce existing air pollution regulations and measures to protect human health both during and after COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Teaching geriatrics during the COVID-19 pandemic: experience of a brazilian medical school

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 203-206
Author(s):  
Marcos Daniel Saraiva ◽  
Milton Luiz Gorzoni
Keyword(s):  
Geriatric Medicine ◽  
Practical Experience ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Learning Tool ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Course Content ◽  
Web Based Learning ◽  
The Impact

INTRODUCTION: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the discipline of geriatrics at the Santa Casa de Sao Paulo School of Medical Sciences of São Paulo was adapted to a web-based learning environment due to social distancing measures. OBJECTIVE: To describe the full adaptation of the discipline of geriatrics to a web-based learning tool, of two activities that were developed including the current COVID-19 to illustrate some of the main concepts of geriatric medicine. METHODS: The course was fully adapted to the open-source course management system called MOODLE. The first activity was a COVID-19 clinical case discussion, whose main objective was to include COVID-19 in the content of our course, illustrating some of the main concepts of geriatrics. The second activity was a Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) experience, done via videoconference, which also assessed the impact of social distancing measures on the health of older adults. RESULTS: A total of 43 medical students performed both activities, and 95% of the students considered the inclusion of the COVID-19 into the discipline of geriatrics useful, 88% approved the practical experience of CGA, and 84% felt that they contributed to the health of the interviewees after contact. CONCLUSION: Adapting our discipline to a web-based learning tool, while including the current COVID-19 in our course content and a practical experience of CGA via videoconference was possible and approved by students. The adoption of this initiative may not only be an academic strategy, but also a possible way to improve the quality of life of older people during the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals The impact of early social distancing at COVID-19 Outbreak in the largest Metropolitan Area of Brazil

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabiana Ganem ◽  
Fabio Macedo Mendes ◽  
Silvano Barbosa de Oliveira ◽  
Victor Bertollo Gomes Porto ◽  
Wildo Navegantes de Araújo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Impact

AbstractWe calculated the impact of early social distancing on the COVID-19 transmission in the São Paulo metropolitan area and forecasted the ICU beds needed to cope the epidemic demand by using an age-stratified SEIR model. Within 60 days, these measures would avoid 89,133 deaths.

scholarly journals Corrigendum: Self-Perception of Changes in Routines in Adults and Older Adults Associated to Social Distancing Due to COVID-19—A Study in São Paulo, Brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adriana Machado-Lima ◽  
Angélica Castilho Alonso ◽  
Débora Gozzo ◽  
Gisele Garcia Zanca ◽  
Guilherme Carlos Brech ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Self Perception ◽  
Social Distancing

scholarly journals 90 Days of COVID-19 Social Distancing and Its Impacts on Air Quality and Health in Sao Paulo, Brazil

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (18) ◽  
pp. 7440 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniela Debone ◽  
Mariana V. da Costa ◽  
Simone G. E. K. Miraglia
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Quality Improvement ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Risk Function ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Significant Drop ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Air Quality Improvement

The COVID-19 pandemic has imposed a unique situation for humanity, reaching up to 5623 deaths in Sao Paulo city during the analyzed period of this study. Due to the measures for social distancing, an improvement of air quality was observed worldwide. In view of this scenario, we investigated the air quality improvement related to PM10, PM2.5, and NO2 concentrations during 90 days of quarantine compared to an equivalent period in 2019. We found a significant drop in air pollution of 45% of PM10, 46% of PM2.5, and 58% of NO2, and using a relative-risk function, we estimated that this significant air quality improvement avoided, respectively, 78, 337, and 387 premature deaths, respectively, and prevented approximately US $720 million on health costs. Moreover, we estimated that 5623 deaths by COVID-19 represent an economic health loss of US $10.5 billion. Both health and economic gains associated with air pollution reductions give a positive perspective of the efforts towards keeping air pollution reduced even after the pandemic, highlighting the importance of improving the strategies of air pollution mitigation actions, as well as the crucial role of adopting efficient measures to protect human health both during and after the COVID-19 global health crisis.

scholarly journals Pertussis booster vaccine for adolescents and young adults in São Paulo, Brazil

2011 ◽  
Vol 45 (6) ◽  
pp. 1162-1171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela Carvalho Freitas ◽  
Valdir Okano ◽  
Júlio Cesar Rodrigues Pereira
Keyword(s):  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Booster Vaccination ◽  
Vaccination Schedule ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Booster Vaccine ◽  
Age Dependent ◽  
Waning Immunity ◽  
The City ◽  
Strategy I

OBJECTIVE: To develop a model to assess different strategies of pertussis booster vaccination in the city of São Paulo. METHODS: A dynamic stationary age-dependent compartmental model with waning immunity was developed. The "Who Acquires Infection from Whom" matrix was used to modeling age-dependent transmission rates. There were tested different strategies including vaccine boosters to the current vaccination schedule and three of them were reported: (i) 35% coverage at age 12, or (ii) 70% coverage at age 12, and (iii) 35% coverage at age 12 and 70% coverage at age 20 at the same time. RESULTS: The strategy (i) achieved a 59% reduction of pertussis occurrence and a 53% reduction in infants while strategy (ii) produced 76% and 63% reduction and strategy (iii) 62% and 54%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Pertussis booster vaccination at age 12 proved to be the best strategy among those tested in this study as it achieves the highest overall reduction and the greatest impact among infants who are more susceptible to pertussis complications.

scholarly journals Social distancing in São Paulo State: demonstrating the reduction in cases using time series analysis of deaths due to COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Henrique de Brito Cruz
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Paulo State ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
The Social ◽  
Isolation Index ◽  
São Paulo State

ABSTRACT: Introduction: Demonstrating the results of Social Distancing Strategies (SDS) became a relevant factor to obtain support by the population in São Paulo State and in Brazil. The delay in the processing of PCR tests and the small number of tests available limits the ability of sanitary authorities to make meaningful data available as to the number of cases or the number of deaths due to COVID-19. Methodology: We use a time series analysis of deaths due to COVID-19 referenced to the date of deaths (as opposed to the date in which the test results were obtained). Results: We demonstrate that the SDS adopted in São Paulo City and State clearly brought meaningful results to delay the growth of COVID-19 cases. We also show that by using this type of time series it is possible to identify different trends for regions, allowing for targeted approaches. Additionally, by using a time series which is death-oriented makes it possible to identify, for São Paulo City, the effects of the SDS with the Social Isolation Index (SII) adopted in the state and to make a gross estimate for the SII, which prevents the growth of the disease. Conclusion: The use of a time series of deaths due to COVID-19 referenced to the date of the event allows a better understanding of the effects of the SDS on the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic in São Paulo State, Brazil.

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