scholarly journals Mathematical model of COVID-19 intervention scenarios for São Paulo-Brazil

Author(s):  
Osmar Pinto Neto ◽  
José Clark Reis ◽  
Ana Carolina Brisola Brizzi ◽  
Gustavo José Zambrano ◽  
Joabe Marcos de Souza ◽  
...  

AbstractAn epidemiological compartmental model was used to simulate social distancing strategies to contain the COVID-19 pandemic and prevent a second wave in São Paulo, Brazil. Optimization using genetic algorithm was used to determine the optimal solutions. Our results suggest the best-case strategy for São Paulo is to maintain or increase the current magnitude of social distancing for at least 60 more days and increase the current levels of personal protection behaviors by a minimum of 10% (e.g., wearing facemasks, proper hand hygiene and avoid agglomeration). Followed by a long-term oscillatory level of social distancing with a stepping-down approach every 80 days over a period of two years with continued protective behavior.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Osmar Pinto Neto ◽  
José Clark Reis ◽  
Ana Carolina Brisola Brizzi ◽  
Gustavo José Zambrano ◽  
Joabe Marcos de Souza ◽  
...  

Abstract An epidemiological compartmental model was used to simulate social distancing strategies to contain the COVID-19 pandemic and prevent a second wave in São Paulo, Brazil. Optimization using genetic algorithm was used to determine the optimal solutions. Our results suggest the best-case strategy for São Paulo is to maintain or increase the current magnitude of social distancing for at least 60 more days and increase the current levels of personal protection behaviors by a minimum of 10% (e.g., wearing facemasks, proper hand hygiene and avoid agglomeration). Followed by a long-term oscillatory level of social distancing with a stepping-down approach every 80 days over a period of two years with continued protective behavior.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Osmar Pinto Neto ◽  
Deanna M. Kennedy ◽  
José Clark Reis ◽  
Yiyu Wang ◽  
Ana Carolina Brisola Brizzi ◽  
...  

AbstractWith COVID-19 surging across the world, understanding the effectiveness of intervention strategies on transmission dynamics is of primary global health importance. Here, we develop and analyze an epidemiological compartmental model using multi-objective genetic algorithm design optimization to compare scenarios related to strategy type, the extent of social distancing, time window, and personal protection levels on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in São Paulo, Brazil. The results indicate that the optimal strategy for São Paulo is to reduce social distancing over time with a stepping-down reduction in the magnitude of social distancing every 80-days. Our results also indicate that the ability to reduce social distancing depends on a 5–10% increase in the current percentage of people strictly following protective guidelines, highlighting the importance of protective behavior in controlling the pandemic. Our framework can be extended to model transmission dynamics for other countries, regions, states, cities, and organizations.


Parasitology ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 136 (6) ◽  
pp. 681-689 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. E. PRESTES-CARNEIRO ◽  
D. H. P. SOUZA ◽  
G. C. MORENO ◽  
C. TROIANI ◽  
V. SANTARÉM ◽  
...  

SUMMARYSeroprevalence of Toxocara and Taenia solium and risk factors for infection with these parasites were explored in a long-term rural settlement in São Paulo state, Brazil. An ELISA for the detection of anti-Toxocara IgG and IgE and anti-T. solium cysticerci was standardized using Toxocara excretory-secretory antigens (TES) obtained from the cultured second-stage larvae of T. canis and by vesicular fluid antigen from Taenia crassiceps cysticerci (VF). For cysticercosis, the reactive ELISA samples were assayed by Western blot using 18 kDa and 14 kDa proteins purified from VF. Out of 182 subjects, 25 (13·7%) presented anti-Toxocara IgG and a positive correlation between total IgE and the reactive index of specific anti-TES IgE (P=0·0265) was found amongst the subjects found seropositive for anti-Toxocara IgG. In these individuals 38·0% showed ocular manifestations. The frequency of anti-T. solium cysticerci confirmed by Western blot was 0·6%. Seropositivity for Toxocara was correlated with low educational levels and the owning of dogs. Embryonated eggs of Toxocara spp. were found in 43·3% of the analysed areas.


2021 ◽  
Vol 79 (3) ◽  
pp. 229-232
Author(s):  
Ana Beatriz Ayroza Galvão Ribeiro GOMES ◽  
Milena Sales PITOMBEIRA ◽  
Douglas Kazutoshi SATO ◽  
Dagoberto CALLEGARO ◽  
Samira Luisa APÓSTOLOS-PEREIRA

ABSTRACT Background: Azathioprine is a common first-line therapy for neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD). Objective: The aim of this study was to determine whether long-term treatment (>10 years) with azathioprine is safe in NMOSD. Methods: We conducted a retrospective medical record review of all patients at the School of Medicine of the University of São Paulo (São Paulo, Brazil) who fulfilled the 2015 international consensus diagnostic criteria for NMOSD and were treated with azathioprine for at least 10 years. Results: Out of 375 patients assessed for eligibility, 19 were included in this analysis. These patients’ median age was 44 years (range=28-61); they were mostly female (17/19) and AQP4-IgG seropositive (18/19). The median disease duration was 15 years (range=10-39) and most patients presented a relapsing clinical course (84.2%). The median duration of treatment was 11.9 years (range=10.0-23.8). The median annualized relapse rates (ARR) pre- and post-treatment with azathioprine were 1 (range=0.1-2) and 0.1 (range=0-0.35); p=0.09. Three patients (15.7%) had records of adverse events during the follow-up, which consisted of chronic B12 vitamin deficiency, pulmonary tuberculosis and breast cancer. Conclusion: Azathioprine may be considered a safe agent for long-term treatment (>10 years) of NMOSD, but continuous vigilance for infections and malignancies is required.


ILUMINURAS ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (42) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivana Teixeira

Através de uma análise das atividades desenvolvidas pelos terapeutas da zooterapia, apresentado pela experiência de um trabalho de observação de longa duração, este artigo se propõe a colocar em questão a associação do homem e do animal, em um corpus de conhecimentos vindo de uma “etologia” empírica e de um corpus elaborado e estruturado de saberes antropológicos. A zooterapia enquanto mediação animal é uma técnica de cuidado para além de uma constatação trivial interespecífica ou de uma projeção antropomórfica sobre os animais de categorias universalmente reconhecidas como humanas. Ela permite nos interrogarmos sobre o recurso à participação animal e seu estatuto de sujeito dotado de capacidades agentivas, ao lado de um terapeuta humano e face à uma pessoa doente. Por ocasião de três estudos de caso contextualmente situados nas cidades de Porto Alegre, Rio de Janeiro e São Paulo, destacamos a questão mais geral da interação entre os dados empíricos que a zooterapia acumula e as representações sociais que são implicitamente mobilizadas para situar o animal dentro de uma cadeia operativa. De modo geral a problemática de interesse deste artigo trata das práticas e horizontes relacionais que atravessam vários grupos sociais e indivíduos contemporâneos que apostam na direção de uma relação interespecífica. Essa problemática é também empírica e epistemológica, pois demarca uma remodelação das diferenças entre natureza e cultura, baseada em uma conjunção de fenômenos invocados a caracterizar os sujeitos (conduta, ações, afetos, comportamento).Palavras-chave: Antropologia da natureza. Agentividade dos animais. Zooterapia. Modalidades de ações.The interspecific relations for human care in the conventional health system: an anthropological analysis of the dynamics of zootherapyAbstractThrough an analysis of the activities developed by zootherapy therapists, presented by the experience of a long-term work of observation, this article proposes to put in question the association of man and animal, in a corpus of knowledge coming from an empirical "ethology" and an elaborate and structured anthropological knowledge corpus. The zootherapy as an animal care mediation is a technique other than an interspecific trivial finding, or an anthropomorphic projection on animals of universally recognized as human categories. It allows us to interrogate about the use of animals and their status as subjects endowed with agentive capacities, alongside a human therapist and in face of a sick person. Based on three case studies contextually located in the cities of Porto Alegre, Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, we highlight the more general question of the interaction between the empirical data that zootherapy accumulates and social representations that are implicitly mobilized to locate the animal inside of an operative chain. More comprehensively the issue of interest in this paper deals with the practical and relational horizons that cut across social groups and contemporary individuals who bet on the direction of an interspecies relationship. This problem is also empirical and epistemological because it marks a remodel of the differences between nature and culture, based on a combination of phenomena invoked to characterize the subjects (behavior, actions, feelings).Keywords: Anthropology of nature. Animal agency. Zootherapy. Modalities of actions.


2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 024009 ◽  
Author(s):  
C L Z Vieira ◽  
E Janot-Pacheco ◽  
C Lage ◽  
A Pacini ◽  
P Koutrakis ◽  
...  

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (8) ◽  
pp. 1655-1662
Author(s):  
Adam Arshad ◽  
Estela Azeka ◽  
Samia Barbar ◽  
Raphael Marcondes ◽  
Adailson Siqueira ◽  
...  

2010 ◽  
Vol 26 (11) ◽  
pp. 2059-2067 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marly Augusto Cardoso ◽  
Luciana Yuki Tomita ◽  
Elaine Cristina Laguna

This study describes the validity of a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) in 93 low-income women (20-65 years), participating in a case-control study in São Paulo, Brazil. Two FFQ (FFQ1 and FFQ2, 12 months apart) and three 24-hour dietary recalls (24hR) were conducted between 2003 and 2004 to estimate dietary intake during the past year. The Pearson correlation coefficients (crude, energy-adjusted and de-attenuated) were used for comparisons between FFQ and 24hR. The agreement between the methods was further examined by the Bland-Altman analysis. For the assessment of long-term reliability, the energy-adjusted intra-class correlation coefficients were mostly around 0.40, but higher for vitamin A and folate (0.50-0.56). Energy-adjusted, attenuation-corrected Pearson validity correlations between FFQ and DR ranged from 0.30-0.54 for macronutrients to 0.20-0.48 for micronutrients, with higher value for calcium (0.75). There were small proportions of grossly misclassified nutrient intakes, while Bland-Altman plots indicated that the FFQ is accurate in assessing nutrient intake at a group level.


2021 ◽  
Vol 55 ◽  
pp. 48
Author(s):  
Cristiane Ravagnani Fortaleza ◽  
Thomas Nogueira Vilches ◽  
Gabriel Berg de Almeida ◽  
Claudia Pio Ferreira ◽  
Lenice do Rosário de Souza ◽  
...  

Interrupted time series analyses were conducted to measure the impact of social distancing policies (instituted on March 22, 2020) and of subsequent mandatory masking in the community (instituted on May 4, 2020) on the incidence and effective reproductive number of COVID-19 in São Paulo State, Brazil. Overall, the impact of social distancing both on incidence and Rt was greater than the incremental effect of mandatory masking. Those findings may reflect either a small impact of face masking or the loosening of social distancing after mandatory use of masks.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document