scholarly journals Probabilistic tsunami forecasting for early warning

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Selva ◽  
S. Lorito ◽  
M. Volpe ◽  
F. Romano ◽  
R. Tonini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Tsunami Warning ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Tsunami Early Warning ◽  
Tsunami Forecasting ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
High Uncertainty

AbstractTsunami warning centres face the challenging task of rapidly forecasting tsunami threat immediately after an earthquake, when there is high uncertainty due to data deficiency. Here we introduce Probabilistic Tsunami Forecasting (PTF) for tsunami early warning. PTF explicitly treats data- and forecast-uncertainties, enabling alert level definitions according to any predefined level of conservatism, which is connected to the average balance of missed-vs-false-alarms. Impact forecasts and resulting recommendations become progressively less uncertain as new data become available. Here we report an implementation for near-source early warning and test it systematically by hindcasting the great 2010 M8.8 Maule (Chile) and the well-studied 2003 M6.8 Zemmouri-Boumerdes (Algeria) tsunamis, as well as all the Mediterranean earthquakes that triggered alert messages at the Italian Tsunami Warning Centre since its inception in 2015, demonstrating forecasting accuracy over a wide range of magnitudes and earthquake types.

scholarly journals A new multi-sensor approach to simulation assisted tsunami early warning

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 1085-1100 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Behrens ◽  
A. Androsov ◽  
A. Y. Babeyko ◽  
S. Harig ◽  
F. Klaschka ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Near Field ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Tsunami Warning ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Tsunami Early Warning ◽  
Arrival Times ◽  
Rigorous Approach ◽  
Tsunami Forecasting ◽  
Wave Heights

Abstract. A new tsunami forecasting method for near-field tsunami warning is presented. This method is applied in the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System, as part of the Indonesian Tsunami Warning Center in Jakarta, Indonesia. The method employs a rigorous approach to minimize uncertainty in the assessment of tsunami hazard in the near-field. Multiple independent sensors are evaluated simultaneously in order to achieve an accurate estimation of coastal arrival times and wave heights within very short time after a submarine earthquake event. The method is validated employing a synthetic (simulated) tsunami event, and in hindcasting the minor tsunami following the Padang 30 September 2009 earthquake.

scholarly journals Tsunami Impact Prediction System Based on TsunAWI Inundation Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-40
Author(s):  
Yedi Dermadi ◽  
Yoanes Bandung
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Detection Algorithm ◽  
Tsunami Warning ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Tsunami Early Warning ◽  
Impact Prediction ◽  
Short Period

It is very important for tsunami early warning systems to provide inundation predictions within a short period of time. Inundation is one of the factors that directly cause destruction and damage from tsunamis. This research proposes a tsunami impact prediction system based on inundation data analysis. The inundation data used in this analysis were obtained from the tsunami modeling called TsunAWI. The inundation data analysis refers to the coastal forecast zones for each city/regency that are currently used in the Indonesia Tsunami Early Warning System (InaTEWS). The data analysis process comprises data collection, data transformation, data analysis (through GIS analysis, predictive analysis, and simple statistical analysis), and data integration, ultimately producing a pre-calculated inundation database for inundation prediction and tsunami impact prediction. As the outcome, the tsunami impact prediction system provides estimations of the flow depth and inundation distance for each city/regency incorporated into generated tsunami warning bulletins and impact predictions based on the Integrated Tsunami Intensity Scale (ITIS-2012). In addition, the system provides automatic sea level anomaly detection from tide gauge sensors by applying a tsunami detection algorithm. Finally, the contribution of this research is expected to bring enhancements to the tsunami warning products of InaTEWS.

scholarly journals Near-field tsunami early warning and emergency planning in the Mediterranean Sea

2013 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 4 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerassimos A. Papadopoulos ◽  
Anna Fokaefs
Keyword(s):  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Travel Time ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Tsunami Wave ◽  
Near Field ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Emergency Planning ◽  
Tsunami Early Warning ◽  
Tsunami Detection ◽  
The Mediterranean

The new European project <em>Near-field Tsunami Early Warning and Emergency Planning in the Mediterranean Sea</em> (NEARTOWARN) faces the need to develop operational tsunami early warning systems in near-field (local) conditions where the travel time of the first tsunami wave is very short, that is less than 30 min, which is a typical case in the North East Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea region but also elsewhere around the globe. The operational condition that should be fulfilled is that the time of tsunami detection, plus the time of warning transmitting, plus the time of evacuation should not exceed the travel time of the first tsunami wave from its source to the closest evacuation zone. To this goal the time to detect of the causative earthquake should be compressed at the very minimum. In this context the core of the proposed system is a network of seismic early warning devices, which activate and send alert in a few seconds after the generation of a near-field earthquake, when a seismic ground motion exceeding a prescribed threshold is detected. Then civil protection mobilizes to manage the earthquake crisis but also to detect and manage a possible tsunami through a geographical risk management system. For the tsunami detection the system is supported by tide-gauges of radar type, a database of presimulated tsunami scenarios, and a local tsunami decision matrix. The island of Rhodes in the eastern termination of the Hellenic Arc and Trench has been selected for a pilot and operational development of the local tsunami warning system given that the island is a highly popular tourist destination, historically it was hit by large tsunamigenic earthquakes and was recently the master test-site for the pan-European FP6 tsunami research project <em>Tsunami Risk ANd Strategies For the European Region</em> (TRANSFER).

Setting up of the Indian Tsunami Early Warning System (ITEWS): National and International Interactions for the Success of ITEWS

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harsh Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Tsunami Warning ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Ocean Bottom ◽  
Tsunami Early Warning ◽  
The Public ◽  
2004 Sumatra Earthquake ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
International Interactions

&lt;p&gt;The 26 December 2004 Sumatra earthquake of Mw 9.2 and the resultant tsunami that claimed over 2,50,000 human lives is probably the most destructive natural disaster of the 21&lt;sup&gt;st&lt;/sup&gt; Century so far. Although the science of tsunami warning had advanced sufficiently by that time, with several tsunami warning centers operating in various oceans, no such system existed for the Indian Ocean. Here we present the discussions and interactions held in India and globally to convince setting up of ITEWS. False tsunami alarms subsequent to 26 December 2004 earthquake had developed a sense of scientific disbelief in the public and to a certain extent in Government of India. We demonstrated to the national and international community that there are only two stretches of faults that could host tsunamigenic earthquakes as far as the India Ocean is concerned. These are: 1) a stretch of some 4000 km of a fault segment extending from Sumatra to Andaman Islands and 2) an area of about 500 km radius off the Makaran Coast in the Arabian Sea. And if we cover these two areas with ocean bottom pressure recorders, the problem of false alarms would be reduced to a large- extant. This plan was finally agreed to and necessary financial, logistic and technical support was made available. The setting up of the ITEWS started in middle 2005 and was completed in August 2007. It has performed very efficiently since then. Over the past ~ 8 years, it monitored ~ 500 M &amp;#8805; 6.5 and provided advisories. As against the requirement placed by IOC of issuing an advisory in 10 to 15 minutes time, ITEWS has been doing it in ~ 8 minutes. Since its inception in 2007, no false alarm has been issued and it is rated among the best in the world.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;IOC has designated ITEWS as the Regional Tsunami advisory Provider (TSP) Indian Ocean Regional Tsunami Center.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Development of tsunami early warning systems and future challenges

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1923-1935 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Wächter ◽  
A. Babeyko ◽  
J. Fleischer ◽  
R. Häner ◽  
M. Hammitzsch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Tsunami Warning ◽  
Information And Communications Technology ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
System Architectures ◽  
Tsunami Early Warning ◽  
Distant Early Warning

Abstract. Fostered by and embedded in the general development of information and communications technology (ICT), the evolution of tsunami warning systems (TWS) shows a significant development from seismic-centred to multi-sensor system architectures using additional sensors (e.g. tide gauges and buoys) for the detection of tsunami waves in the ocean. Currently, the beginning implementation of regional tsunami warning infrastructures indicates a new phase in the development of TWS. A new generation of TWS should not only be able to realise multi-sensor monitoring for tsunami detection. Moreover, these systems have to be capable to form a collaborative communication infrastructure of distributed tsunami warning systems in order to implement regional, ocean-wide monitoring and warning strategies. In the context of the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and in the EU-funded FP6 project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination has been newly developed and demonstrated. In particular, standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS) have been successfully incorporated. In the FP7 project Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC), new developments in ICT (e.g. complex event processing (CEP) and event-driven architecture (EDA)) are used to extend the existing platform to realise a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems.

scholarly journals The short-term tsunami forecast

2021 ◽  
Vol 946 (1) ◽  
pp. 012022
Author(s):  
Yu P Korolev
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
The United States ◽  
Kuril Islands ◽  
Express Method ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Tsunami Forecast ◽  
Tsunami Early Warning ◽  
Tsunami Forecasting ◽  
The Kuril Islands

Abstract A brief overview of the methods of a tsunami early warning in the Kuril Islands, which turned out to be ineffective during recent events, is presented. A hydrophysical method for short-term tsunami forecasting based on information about a tsunami in the ocean, used in the United States, and an express method, also using information about a tsunami in the ocean, are briefly described. The results of the retrospective forecast of the tsunami that occured on March 11, 2011, by the express method are presented.

scholarly journals KOERI’s Tsunami Warning System in the Eastern Mediterranean and Its Connected Seas: A Decade of Achievements and Challenges

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (23) ◽  
pp. 11247
Author(s):  
Öcal Necmioğlu ◽  
Fatih Turhan ◽  
Ceren Özer Sözdinler ◽  
Mehmet Yılmazer ◽  
Yavuz Güneş ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Tsunami Warning ◽  
Tsunami Warning System ◽  
Tsunami Early Warning ◽  
The North ◽  
Earthquake Research ◽  
Monitoring Center

A tsunami warning system providing services in the Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean, Marmara and Black Seas under the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC)—Intergovernmental Coordination Group (ICG) for the Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System in the North-Eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAMTWS) framework was established in Turkey by the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) (Özel et al., 2011). KOERI’s Regional Earthquake and Tsunami Monitoring Center (RETMC) was established on the foundations of the legacy KOERI National Earthquake Monitoring Center (NEMC) by adding observation, analysis and operational capability related to tsunami early warnings after an extensive preparatory period during 2009 and 2011. The center initiated its test-mode 7/24 operational status as a national tsunami warning center in 2011, and after a one year period it became operational as a candidate tsunami warning center for NEAMTWS on 1 July 2012, together with CENALT (Centre d’Alerte aux Tsunamis—France) and followed by the NOA (National Observatory of Athens—Greece) on 28 August 2012, INGV (Instituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia—Italy) on 1 October 2014 and IPMA (Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera—Portugal) on 1 February 2018, completing full coverage of the tsunami-prone regions monitored by NEAMTWS. In this paper, an overview of the progress and continuous improvement of KOERI’s tsunami early warning system will be presented, together with lessons learned from important tsunamigenic events, such as the 20 July 2017 Bodrum–Kos Mw 6.6 and 30 October 2020 Samos–Izmir Mw 6.9 earthquakes. Gaps preventing the completion of an effective tsunami warning cycle and areas for future improvement are also addressed.

Review on Near-Field Tsunami Forecasting from Offshore Tsunami Data and Onshore GNSS Data for Tsunami Early Warning

2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 339-357 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroaki Tsushima ◽  
◽  
Yusaku Ohta ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Near Field ◽  
Leading Edge ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Satellite System ◽  
Coastal Communities ◽  
Tsunami Early Warning ◽  
Tsunami Forecasting ◽  
Global Navigation Satellite ◽  
Gnss Data

This paper reviews recent studies on methods of realtime forecasting for near-field tsunamis that use either offshore tsunami data or onshore global navigation satellite system (GNSS) data. Tsunami early warning systems for near-field coastal communities are vital because evacuation time before tsunami arrival is usually very short. We focus on forecasting between the occurrence of a tsunamigenic earthquake and the arrival of the first tsunami at a near-field coast – typically a few tens of minutes or less after the earthquake. Offshore tsunami measurement that provides coastal communities with direct information on impending tsunamis is very effective in providing reliable tsunami predictions. Crustal deformation due to coseismic slips at an earthquake fault detected by real-time GNSS analysis is quite useful in estimating fault expansion and the amount of slip, which in turn contributes to timely tsunami warnings, e.g., within 10 minutes, even for huge interplate earthquakes. Our review encompasses methods on the leading edge of research and those already in the process of being applied practically. We also discuss an effective combination of methods developed for mitigating tsunami disasters.

The Biology of Mediterranean-Type Ecosystems

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen J. Esler ◽  
Anna L. Jacobsen ◽  
R. Brandon Pratt
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Invasive Species ◽  
Habitat Loss ◽  
Endemic Species ◽  
Geographic Area ◽  
Cutting Edge ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Mediterranean Type Ecosystems

The world’s mediterranean-type climate regions (including areas within the Mediterranean, South Africa, Australia, California, and Chile) have long been of interest to biologists by virtue of their extraordinary biodiversity and the appearance of evolutionary convergence between these disparate regions. Comparisons between mediterranean-type climate regions have provided important insights into questions at the cutting edge of ecological, ecophysiological and evolutionary research. These regions, dominated by evergreen shrubland communities, contain many rare and endemic species. Their mild climate makes them appealing places to live and visit and this has resulted in numerous threats to the species and communities that occupy them. Threats include a wide range of factors such as habitat loss due to development and agriculture, disturbance, invasive species, and climate change. As a result, they continue to attract far more attention than their limited geographic area might suggest. This book provides a concise but comprehensive introduction to mediterranean-type ecosystems. As with other books in the Biology of Habitats Series, the emphasis in this book is on the organisms that dominate these regions although their management, conservation, and restoration are also considered.

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