scholarly journals The epidemic volatility index, a novel early warning tool for identifying new waves in an epidemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Polychronis Kostoulas ◽  
Eletherios Meletis ◽  
Konstantinos Pateras ◽  
Paolo Eusebi ◽  
Theodoros Kostoulas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
New York State ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Volatility Index ◽  
Ability To Act ◽  
Threshold Data ◽  
Stable Performance

AbstractEarly warning tools are crucial for the timely application of intervention strategies and the mitigation of the adverse health, social and economic effects associated with outbreaks of epidemic potential such as COVID-19. This paper introduces, the Epidemic Volatility Index (EVI), a new, conceptually simple, early warning tool for oncoming epidemic waves. EVI is based on the volatility of newly reported cases per unit of time, ideally per day, and issues an early warning when the volatility change rate exceeds a threshold. Data on the daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 are used to demonstrate the use of EVI. Results from the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy and New York State are presented here, based on the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, from January 22, 2020, until April 13, 2021. Live daily updated predictions for all world countries and each of the United States of America are publicly available online. For Italy, the overall sensitivity for EVI was 0.82 (95% Confidence Intervals: 0.75; 0.89) and the specificity was 0.91 (0.88; 0.94). For New York, the corresponding values were 0.55 (0.47; 0.64) and 0.88 (0.84; 0.91). Consecutive issuance of early warnings is a strong indicator of main epidemic waves in any country or state. EVI’s application to data from the current COVID-19 pandemic revealed a consistent and stable performance in terms of detecting new waves. The application of EVI to other epidemics and syndromic surveillance tasks in combination with existing early warning systems will enhance our ability to act swiftly and thereby enhance containment of outbreaks.

Seasonal Activity of Haemaphysalis longicornis (Acari: Ixodidae) in Southern New York State

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas P Piedmonte ◽  
Vanessa C Vinci ◽  
Thomas J Daniels ◽  
Bryon P Backenson ◽  
Richard C Falco
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
Activity Patterns ◽  
New York State ◽  
The United States ◽  
Haemaphysalis Longicornis ◽  
Seasonal Activity ◽  
Eastern Asia ◽  
Short Life ◽  
Human Bite

Abstract The Asian longhorned tick, Haemaphysalis longicornis Neumann, is a species native to eastern Asia that has recently been discovered in the United States. In its native range, H. longicornis transmits pathogens that cause disease in humans and livestock. It is currently unknown whether H. longicornis will act as a vector in the United States. Understanding its seasonal activity patterns will be important in identifying which times of the year represent greatest potential risk to humans and livestock should this species become a threat to animal or public health. A study site was established in Yonkers, NY near the residence associated with the first reported human bite from H. longicornis in the United States. Ticks were collected once each week from July 2018 to November 2019. Haemaphysalis longicornis larvae were most active from August to November, nymphs from April to July, and adult females from June to September. This pattern of activity suggests that H. longicornis is capable of completing a generation within a single year and matches the patterns observed in its other ranges in the northern hemisphere. The data presented here contribute to a growing database for H. longicornis phenology in the northeastern United States. Potential implications of the short life cycle for the tick’s vectorial capacity are discussed.

Geographic Variation in Dominance of Spinosad Resistance in Colorado Potato Beetles (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Coby Klein ◽  
Mitchell Baker ◽  
Andrei Alyokhin ◽  
David Mota-Sanchez
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Long Island ◽  
New York State ◽  
The United States ◽  
Island Population ◽  
Potato Beetle ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Leptinotarsa Decemlineata Say ◽  
High Level

Abstract Eastern New York State is frequently the site of Colorado potato beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Say) populations with the highest observed levels of insecticide resistance to a range of active ingredients. The dominance of a resistant phenotype will affect its rate of increase and the potential for management. On organic farms on Long Island, L. decemlineata evolved high levels of resistance to spinosad in a short period of time and that resistance has spread across the eastern part of the Island. Resistance has also emerged in other parts of the country as well. To clarify the level of dominance or recessiveness of spinosad resistance in different parts of the United States and how resistance differs in separate beetle populations, we sampled in 2010 beetle populations from Maine, Michigan, and Long Island. In addition, a highly resistant Long Island population was assessed in 2012. All populations were hybridized with a laboratory-susceptible strain to determine dominance. None of the populations sampled in 2010 were significantly different from additive resistance, but the Long Island population sampled in 2012 was not significantly different from fully recessive. Recessive inheritance of high-level resistance may help manage its increase.

Management of personal protective equipment during the COVID-19 pandemic in England and the state of New York: A comparative case study

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (7) ◽  
pp. 71-89
Author(s):  
Amy Barber, BSc ◽  
Annaëlle Vinzent, BS ◽  
Imani Williams, BA
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Health Systems ◽  
Personal Protective Equipment ◽  
New York State ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Comparative Case Study ◽  
Protective Equipment

Background: The COVID-19 crisis placed extraordinary demands on the supply of personal protective equipment (PPE) at the beginning of 2020. These were coupled with shocks to the supply chain resulting from the disease. Many typically well-resourced health systems faced subsequent shortages of equipment and had to implement new strategies to manage their stocks. Stockpiles of protective equipment were held in both the United States and United Kingdom intended to prevent shortages. Method: Cross-comparative case study approach by applying Pettigrew and Whipp’s framework for change management. Setting: The health systems of England and New York state from January 2020 to the end of April 2020. Results: Both cases reacted slowly to their outbreaks and faced problems with supplying enough PPE to their health systems. Their stockpiles were not enough to prevent shortages, with many distribution problems resulting from inadequate governance mechanisms. No sustainable responses to supply disruptions were implemented during the study period in either case. Health systems planned interventions along each part of the supply chain from production and importing, to usage guidelines. Conclusion: Global supply chains are vulnerable to disruptions caused by international crises, and existing mitigation strategies have not been wholly successful. The existence of stockpiles is insufficient to preventing shortages of necessary equipment in clinical settings. Both the governance and quality of stockpiles, as well as distribution channels are important for preventing shortages. At the time of writing, it is not possible to judge the strength of strategies adopted in these cases.

scholarly journals A statewide analysis of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in New York

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erica Lasek-Nesselquist ◽  
Navjot Singh ◽  
Alexis Russell ◽  
Daryl Lamson ◽  
John Kelly ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
York City ◽  
New York State ◽  
The United States ◽  
York State ◽  
Multiple Introductions ◽  
The Public ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Westchester County

AbstractNew York State, in particular the New York City metropolitan area, was the early epicenter of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the United States. Similar to initial pandemic dynamics in many metropolitan areas, multiple introductions from various locations appear to have contributed to the swell of positive cases. However, representation and analysis of samples from New York regions outside the greater New York City area were lacking, as were SARS-CoV-2 genomes from the earliest cases associated with the Westchester County outbreak, which represents the first outbreak recorded in New York State. The Wadsworth Center, the public health laboratory of New York State, sought to characterize the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 across the entire state of New York from March to September with the addition of over 600 genomes from under-sampled and previously unsampled New York counties and to more fully understand the breadth of the initial outbreak in Westchester County. Additional sequencing confirmed the dominance of B.1 and descendant lineages (collectively referred to as B.1.X) in New York State. Community structure, phylogenetic, and phylogeographic analyses suggested that the Westchester outbreak was associated with continued transmission of the virus throughout the state, even after travel restrictions and the on-pause measures of March, contributing to a substantial proportion of the B.1 transmission clusters as of September 30th, 2020.

scholarly journals Unseasonal Transmission of H3N2 Influenza A Virus During the Swine-Origin H1N1 Pandemic

2010 ◽  
Vol 84 (11) ◽  
pp. 5715-5718 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elodie Ghedin ◽  
David E. Wentworth ◽  
Rebecca A. Halpin ◽  
Xudong Lin ◽  
Jayati Bera ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Influenza A Virus ◽  
Influenza A ◽  
New York State ◽  
The United States ◽  
Influenza Viruses ◽  
Influenza A Viruses ◽  
York State ◽  
Low Incidence ◽  
H3n2 Influenza

ABSTRACT The initial wave of swine-origin influenza A virus (pandemic H1N1/09) in the United States during the spring and summer of 2009 also resulted in an increased vigilance and sampling of seasonal influenza viruses (H1N1 and H3N2), even though they are normally characterized by very low incidence outside of the winter months. To explore the nature of virus evolution during this influenza “off-season,” we conducted a phylogenetic analysis of H1N1 and H3N2 sequences sampled during April to June 2009 in New York State. Our analysis revealed that multiple lineages of both viruses were introduced and cocirculated during this time, as is typical of influenza virus during the winter. Strikingly, however, we also found strong evidence for the presence of a large transmission chain of H3N2 viruses centered on the south-east of New York State and which continued until at least 1 June 2009. These results suggest that the unseasonal transmission of influenza A viruses may be more widespread than is usually supposed.

NEWS AND ANNOUNCEMENTS

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1970 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 164-165
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Medical Center ◽  
New York State ◽  
The United States ◽  
Atlantic City ◽  
York State Department ◽  
United States Department ◽  
Executive Council ◽  
Department Of Health ◽  
President Elect

Officers Elected: At the annual meeting of the Ambulatory Pediatric Association in Atlantic City in April 1970, the following officers and members of the Executive Council were elected: President John H. Kennell, President Elect Donald L. Fink, Executive Council Members: Ray E. Helfer and Roland B. Scott. Institites for Physicians and Nurses in the Care of Premature and Other Highrisk Infants, sponsored by the New York State Department of Health and the United States Department of Health, Education and Welfare, and conducted at the New York Hospital-Cornell Medical Center five times during the academic year, will begin in September, 1970.

The All-Powerful NIMBY

2000 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hans Tammemagi
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
Waste Management ◽  
New York State ◽  
The United States ◽  
Modern Technology ◽  
Strong Trend ◽  
The People ◽  
Transfer Stations ◽  
Almost All

Our society has reached a frustrating impasse: everyone wants consumer goods, but nobody wants the associated waste. In all levels of society from the grass-roots to the highest level of politics, enormous public opposition has developed to siting landfills, incinerators, or transfer stations. With complex judicial and political systems that promote empowerment of the people, it has become common for opposition groups to delay or halt altogether the introduction of new waste management facilities. The NIMBY—Not In My Back Yard—syndrome has become a powerful force. This chapter explores the process by which the sites for landfills and related waste facilities are selected. This fascinating topic goes far beyond technical issues: it provides insight into human behavior and the ways political decisions are made. An understanding of the NIMBY phenomenon is essential for anyone who wishes to pursue a career in waste management. In some regions there is already a crisis. In New Jersey, for example, the number of landfills has dropped from more than 300 to about a dozen in the past two decades. As a result, more than half of New Jersey’s municipal solid waste must be exported to other states. In New York state, 298 landfills were closed and only 6 new ones opened in the decade since 1982. The same story is unfolding in almost all jurisdictions in North America; the number of landfills in the United States dwindled from 20,000 in 1979 to about 5,300 in 1993 (Miller, 1997). There is a very strong trend toward fewer—but much bigger—landfills. In the United States it is estimated that 8% of the existing landfills handle 75% of the country’s garbage. As the number of landfills decreases, their heights grow, casting dark shadows across the land. There is no doubt that new landfills are safer than old ones: they are generally better sited and incorporate better engineering and modern technology such as liners, covers, and leachate and gas extraction systems. However, people still do not want them next door. Thus, the few new landfills that are being developed are getting larger and larger; the megadump is the trend of the future.

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