scholarly journals Inefficiency of SIR models in forecasting COVID-19 epidemic: a case study of Isfahan

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shiva Moein ◽  
Niloofar Nickaeen ◽  
Amir Roointan ◽  
Niloofar Borhani ◽  
Zarifeh Heidary ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Detailed Knowledge ◽  
World War ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Isfahan Province ◽  
Stringency Level

AbstractThe multifaceted destructions caused by COVID-19 have been compared to that of World War II. What makes the situation even more complicated is the ambiguity about the duration and ultimate spread of the pandemic. It is especially critical for the governments, healthcare systems, and economic sectors to have an estimate of the future of this disaster. By using different mathematical approaches, including the classical susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and its derivatives, many investigators have tried to predict the outbreak of COVID-19. In this study, we simulated the epidemic in Isfahan province of Iran for the period from Feb 14th to April 11th and also forecasted the remaining course with three scenarios that differed in terms of the stringency level of social distancing. Despite the prediction of disease course in short-term intervals, the constructed SIR model was unable to forecast the actual spread and pattern of epidemic in the long term. Remarkably, most of the published SIR models developed to predict COVID-19 for other communities, suffered from the same inconformity. The SIR models are based on assumptions that seem not to be true in the case of the COVID-19 epidemic. Hence, more sophisticated modeling strategies and detailed knowledge of the biomedical and epidemiological aspects of the disease are needed to forecast the pandemic.

The Port of Hamburg in the 1940s and 1950s: Physical Reconstruction and Political Restructuring in the Aftermath of World War II

2019 ◽  
pp. 009614421987785
Author(s):  
Christoph Strupp
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Decline ◽  
World War ◽  
Ruhr Area ◽  
Air War ◽  
Economic Elite ◽  
The City

The resilience of cities is usually tested by acute catastrophes such as physical destruction by natural disasters or wars or long-term processes of economic decline. This article discusses another type of catastrophe and the response of the political and economic elite of the city to it in the form of a case study on Germany’s biggest seaport city Hamburg in the aftermath of World War II. Although the air war of 1943-1945 had seriously damaged large parts of the port of Hamburg, the physical reconstruction began soon after the end of the war and made steady progress. This aspect of the disaster of war was to be overcome within a few years. But the war and its aftermath of political confrontation between East and West had changed the geopolitical position of Hamburg and moved it from the center of Europe to the periphery of the West. The hinterland of the port in Eastern Europe was cut off. The founding of the European Economic Community (EEC) in 1957 with its focus on the Rhine-Ruhr area further seemed to marginalize Hamburg. These developments were quickly perceived as a greater disaster than the physical destruction. This article examines the strategies developed by the political and economic leaders in Hamburg in the late 1940s and 1950s for dealing with processes they had no control over and could not directly influence.

scholarly journals CHEMICAL SUPPORT OF TROOPS DURING WORLD WAR II

2020 ◽  
pp. 77-82
Author(s):  
Aleksey N. Malinka ◽  
Aleksey V. Anisimov ◽  
Aleksandr K. Kartashov
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Air Force ◽  
Chemical Defence ◽  
Chemical Weapons ◽  
World War ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Industrial Facilities ◽  
Military Equipment ◽  
German Air Force

When it attacked the USSR, Nazi Germany possessed signifi cant chemical weapons. Chemical support thus became one of the main kinds of operational (combat) support. Short-term course has been created for chemical service commanders and personnel chemical specialists training. The Red Army’s general attention was paid to the chemical defence measures, to eliminate the enemy manpower, weapons and military equipment by use of the fl amethrower and incendiary means, smoke screens were used to mask. Chemical detection and the prevention of chemical weapons use involved chemical, meteorological monitoring; chemical reconnaissance was provided mostly by chemical troops. It took a lot to provide troops with necessary chemical defence means. The fl amethrowers` mission was to burn the enemy out of long-term fi re facilities and fortifi ed buildings, to block strongholds, and to destroy tanks and armoured personnel carriers. Smoke screens were used to mask rear objects, important industrial facilities in cities, railway junctions, bridges and crossings. Smoke screens masking signifi cantly reduced the effectiveness of German air force bombing.

“From Each according to Their Ability, to Each according to Their Need”

2019 ◽  
Vol 51 (S1) ◽  
pp. 7-29
Author(s):  
Martha Lampland
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
World War Ii ◽  
Physical Capacity ◽  
Scientific Management ◽  
World War ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Capitalist Economy ◽  
Structural Character ◽  
History Of

Two wage systems designed to improve productivity among Hungarian workers are compared. The first, calorie money, was a short-term solution to keep workers properly nourished and hard at work in a capitalist economy in the midst of inflationary chaos at the end of World War II. The second, technical norms, was a long-term project initiated by the socialist state to design norms based on workers’ physical capacity in order to extract the greatest amount of effort most efficiently. In both cases, wages were set according to the level of exertion expended by the worker, not by output, which is commonly understood to be the measure of productivity. The purpose of this article is twofold: (1) to situate the early socialist project in Hungary within a longer history of rationalization and scientific management in the first half of the twentieth century; and (2) to explain how different conceptualizations of labor generate distinct approaches to determining wages and establishing norm rates. This approach draws attention to two central questions: the structural character of the transition to socialism in 1940s Hungary and the historical contingencies of the definition and assessment of work.

scholarly journals Assessing Volcanic Hazard and Exposure at Obscure Volcanic Fields: A Case Study from the Bolaven Volcanic Field, Laos

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Verolino ◽  
Susanna F. Jenkins ◽  
Kerry Sieh ◽  
Jason S. Herrin ◽  
Dayana Schonwalder-Angel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Surface Waters ◽  
Volcanic Field ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
World War ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Flow Simulations ◽  
Life Threatening

Abstract Southeast Asia hosts a large number of active and well-studied volcanoes, the majority of which are located in Indonesia and the Philippines. Northern Southeast Asia (Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam) also hosts volcanoes that for several reasons (post-World War II conflicts, poor accessibility due to dense vegetation, no known historical activity) have been little studied. Systematic assessments of the threat these volcanoes pose to resident populations do not exist, despite evidence of numerous eruptions through the late Pleistocene and likely even during the Holocene. A recent study that inferred the location of the Australasian meteorite impact (which produced the largest known tektite strewn field on Earth) beneath the Bolaven Volcanic Field in southern Laos provided a wealth of data for that volcanic field, in particular, mapping of vents and flows, and their absolute ages. Building upon this foundation, we used the Bolaven Volcanic Field as a case study for assessing the potential exposure of populations and infrastructure to lava flows during future eruptions there. Our study uses remote sensing of past flows, lava-flow simulations and open-access exposure data, to assess hazards and exposure. Our results show that future vents are most likely to occur in a N-S band atop the Bolaven Plateau, with some flows channelled into canyons that spill down the plateau flanks onto lower plains that support more populated areas such as the provincial centre, Pakse. Our exposure assessment suggests that around 300,000 people could experience socio-economic impacts from future eruptions. The largest impacts would be on two of the main economic sectors in the region, agriculture and hydropower. The potential also exists for life-threatening explosions from interactions between magma and surface waters, which are abundant in the region. We estimate an Average Recurrence Interval of approximately 10,400 years.

Genocide and Resistance in Hitler’s Bosnia

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marko Attila Hoare
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
National Identity ◽  
Civil War ◽  
World War ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Narrative History ◽  
Guerrilla Movements ◽  
History Of

This volume is a study of revolution, genocide and national identity in Bosnia-Hercegovina during World War II. It explains the civil war between two rival guerrilla movements — the Partisans and the Chetniks — both in terms of long-term socio-economic and cultural fissures in Bosnia-Hercegovina, and in terms of short-term differences in policy and ideology. A chronological narrative history of the Bosnian Partisan movement allows the reader to understand how it evolved, as it first provoked the emergence of its Chetnik rival, and was then forced to adapt under pressure from the latter.

scholarly journals Forecasting Covid-19 epidemic in Isfahan using a dynamic modeling approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shiva Moein ◽  
Niloofar Nickaeen ◽  
Amir Roointan ◽  
Niloofar Borhani ◽  
Zarifeh Heidari ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Dynamic Modeling ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Healthcare Systems ◽  
Preventive Strategies ◽  
World War ◽  
Final Size ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Isfahan Province

Abstract The multidimensional destructions caused by Covid-19 have been compared to that of World War II. What makes the situation even more complicated is the ambiguity regarding the duration and the final size of the pandemic. It is critical especially for the governments, healthcare systems, and economic sectors to have an estimation of the future of this disaster. Using a dynamic model, we have here simulated the epidemic in Isfahan province, Iran for the episode of Feb 14th to April 11th and also have forecasted the remaining course with three scenarios which differ in terms of the stringency of social distancing. Results of this study indicate that in a “good scenario”, the epidemic could be overcome by following a strict lockdown for some weeks. Notably, even partial restrictions in the “feasible scenario” decline hospital admissions and mortality rates by one third compared to the “bad scenario” in which no limitation is imposed. Taken together, inattention to preventive strategies will result in a dramatic increase of the medical, social, and economical burden of the outbreak.

Intercultural Experience, the Anglo-American Occupation and UNESCO in Germany 1945–1949

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 193-213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elaine Morley
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
United Nations ◽  
Cultural Diplomacy ◽  
Scientific Organization ◽  
World War ◽  
United Nations Educational ◽  
Intercultural Experience ◽  
Anglo American ◽  
Negative Sense

Independent of each other, though contemporaneous, the Anglo-American occupiers of Germany and the newly founded United Nations Educational, Cultural and Scientific Organization employed culture to foster greater intercultural and international understanding in 1945. Both enterprises separately saw culture as offering a means of securing the peace in the long term. This article compares the stated intentions and activities of the Anglo-American occupiers and UNESCO vis-à-vis transforming morals and public opinion in Germany for the better after World War II. It reconceptualizes the mobilization of culture to transform Germany through engaging theories of cultural diplomacy and propaganda. It argues that rather than merely engaging in propaganda in the negative sense, elements of these efforts can also be viewed as propaganda in the earlier, morally neutral sense of the term, despite the fact that clear geopolitical aims lay at the heart of the cultural activities of both the occupiers and UNESCO.

LONG-TERM TRENDS IN MARITAL STATUS MORTALITY DIFFERENCES IN THE NETHERLANDS 1850–1970

2001 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-303 ◽  
Author(s):  
FRANS VAN POPPEL ◽  
INEZ JOUNG
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Marital Status ◽  
Cause Of Death ◽  
Relative Increase ◽  
World War ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Married Men ◽  
Long Term Trends

This article describes the long-term trends in marital status mortality differences in the Netherlands using a unique dataset relating to the period 1850–1970. Poisson regression analysis was applied to calculate relative mortality risks by marital status. For two periods, cause-of-death by marital status could be used. Clear differences in mortality by marital status were observed, with strongly increasing advantages for married men and women and a relative increase in the mortality of widowed compared with non-married people. Excess mortality among single and formerly married men and women was visible in many cause-of-death categories, and this became more widespread during the last decades of the nineteenth century. Hypotheses are formulated that might explain why married men and women underwent a stronger decrease in mortality up until the end of World War II.

Men's and Women's Mating Preferences: Distinct Evolutionary Mechanisms?

2002 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 88-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lynn Carol Miller ◽  
Anila Putcha-Bhagavatula ◽  
William C. Pedersen
Keyword(s):  
Sexual Functioning ◽  
Large Female ◽  
Detailed Knowledge ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Evolutionary Mechanisms ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Mating Preferences ◽  
Chemical Mechanisms ◽  
Species Comparisons

Have men and women evolved sex-distinct mating preferences for short-term and long-term mating, as postulated by some evolutionary theorists? Direct tests of assumptions, consideration of confounds with gender, and examination of the same variables for both sexes suggest men and women are remarkably similar. Furthermore, cross-species comparisons indicate that humans do not evidence mating mechanisms indicative of short-term mating (e.g., large female sexual skins, large testicles). Understanding human variability in mating preferences is apt to involve more detailed knowledge of the links between these preferences and biological and chemical mechanisms associated with sexual motivation, sexual arousal, and sexual functioning.

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