scholarly journals Global short-term forecasting of COVID-19 cases

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Thiago de Paula Oliveira ◽  
Rafael de Andrade Moral
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare Services ◽  
Great Accuracy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
The World ◽  
The Hierarchical Structure ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
Model Components ◽  
Global Planning

AbstractThe continuously growing number of COVID-19 cases pressures healthcare services worldwide. Accurate short-term forecasting is thus vital to support country-level policy making. The strategies adopted by countries to combat the pandemic vary, generating different uncertainty levels about the actual number of cases. Accounting for the hierarchical structure of the data and accommodating extra-variability is therefore fundamental. We introduce a new modelling framework to describe the pandemic’s course with great accuracy and provide short-term daily forecasts for every country in the world. We show that our model generates highly accurate forecasts up to seven days ahead and use estimated model components to cluster countries based on recent events. We introduce statistical novelty in terms of modelling the autoregressive parameter as a function of time, increasing predictive power and flexibility to adapt to each country. Our model can also be used to forecast the number of deaths, study the effects of covariates (such as lockdown policies), and generate forecasts for smaller regions within countries. Consequently, it has substantial implications for global planning and decision making. We present forecasts and make all results freely available to any country in the world through an online Shiny dashboard.

scholarly journals A Simple Method of Finding an Approximate Pattern of the COVID-19 Spread

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hemanta Kumar Baruah
Keyword(s):  
Analysis Data ◽  
Growth Patterns ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
The Third ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
The World ◽  
Spread Pattern ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

ABSTRACTWe are going to show that the pattern of spread of COVID-19 outside China is not monotonic. We have considered the data outside China because we are going to study the data starting from March 21, and by that time the spread had almost come to a stop in China. We have used for our analysis data on total cases outside China till April 25, 2020, and data from April 26 to April 30 for comparison of forecasts and observed values. Right from the beginning the spread pattern was nonlinear, and by the end of the third week of March the nonlinearity became nearly exponential. The exponential pattern thereafter has changed by around March 28, April 5, April 11 and April 18. Since March 21, the spread is following a nearly exponential pattern of growth changing observably at almost regular intervals of seven days. It is but natural that at some point of time the countries that had been contributing in observably large numbers to the total cases would start to show diminishing growth patterns. Therefore long term forecasts using our method would give us slightly overestimated results. However, for short term forecasting our simple method does work very well when we consider the total number of cases in the world and not in any particular country.

Policy Review: Dubai Health Authority’s COVID-19 Rapid Response

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (Special) ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Healthcare Services ◽  
Rapid Response ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
World Health ◽  
Healthcare Sector ◽  
Services Delivery ◽  
First Case ◽  
The World

Dubai Health Authority (DHA) is the entity regulating the healthcare sector in the Emirate of Dubai, ensuring high quality and safe healthcare services delivery to the population. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic on the 11th of March 2020, indicating to the world that further infection spread is very likely, and alerting countries that they should be ready for possible widespread community transmission. The first case of COVID-19 in the United Arab Emirates was confirmed on 29th of January 2020; since then, the number of cases has continued to grow exponentially. As of 8th of July 2020 (end of the day), 53,045 cases of coronavirus have been confirmed with a death toll of 327 cases. The UAE has conducted over 3,720,000 COVID-19 tests among UAE citizens and residents over the past four months, in line with the government’s plans to strengthen virus screening to contain the spread of COVID-19. There were vital UAE policies, laws, regulations, and decrees that have been announced for immediate implementation to limit the spread of COVID- 19, to prevent panic and to ensure the overall food, nutrition, and well-being are provided. The UAE is amongst the World’s Top 10 for COVID-19 Treatment Efficiency and in the World’s Top 20 for the implementation of COVID-19 Safety measures. The UAE’s mission is to work towards resuming life after COVID-19 and enter into the recovery phases. This policy research paper will discuss the Dubai Health Authority’s rapid response initiatives towards combating the control and spread of COVID-19 and future policy implications and recommendations. The underlying factors and policy options will be discussed in terms of governance, finance, and delivery.

The causes of poverty in Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-36
Author(s):  
I.S. Ivanchenko
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Regional Development ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Financial Situation ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Development Plans ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

Subject. This article analyzes the changes in poverty of the population of the Russian Federation. Objectives. The article aims to identify macroeconomic variables that will have the most effective impact on reducing poverty in Russia. Methods. For the study, I used the methods of logical, comparative, and statistical analyses. Results. The article presents a list of macroeconomic variables that, according to Western scholars, can influence the incomes of the poorest stratum of society and the number of unemployed in the country. The regression analysis based on the selected variables reveals those ones that have a statistically significant impact on the financial situation of the Russian poor. Relevance. The results obtained can be used by the financial market mega-regulator to make anti-poverty decisions. In addition, the models built can be useful to the executive authorities at various levels for short-term forecasting of the number of unemployed and their income in drawing up regional development plans for the areas.

Digital Economy: New Opportunities and Threats for the Development of the World Economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 18-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. A. Strelkova
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Practical Experience ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Digital Economy ◽  
The State ◽  
Market Exchange ◽  
Country Level ◽  
The World ◽  
Business Structures ◽  
Definition Of

The paper examines various approaches to the definition of the term «digital economy» in the scientific and business environment along with factors and forms of its development in different countries taking into account the specifics of the current stage of the Russian economy, which is a matter of particular importance in seeking new sources of the world economy growth. The subject of the research is opportunities and threats inherent in the process of digitalization of economies and their impact on the operation of international and national markets as well as the development of the world economy as a whole. The purpose of the paper was to analyze the practical experience in the formation and development of the digital economy in foreign countries and Russia and identify the changes it brings to the activities of state institutions and business structures, established rules of market exchange, the process of promotion and use of innovations. All the above made it possible to determine the country-level specifics of the digital economy evolution reveal the contradictory nature of its manifestations and justify the necessity for active participation of the state in stimulation and support of potentially promising digital innovations in various sectors of the economy. It is concluded that the level of the digital economy development depends on the real-sector performance, the maturity of markets, the state of the national economy. It is highlighted that the criteria for a comprehensive assessment of the results of the economy digitalization must be developed.

Assessing social sustainability in the gig economy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muralidharan Loganathan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Social Protection ◽  
Social Sustainability ◽  
Decent Work ◽  
Sustainable Development Goal ◽  
Development Goal ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Gig Economy ◽  
The World ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth

Sustainable Development Goal 8 to “Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all” necessitates country level measures across the world. We take forward a comparative analysis of India’s SDG 8 indicator list with both the UN and ILO measurements. We note inadequate measurements on social-protection and rights for non-standard forms of employment including gig work, that are intermediated by ICT platforms. From our analysis we identify some levers to broaden the current indicator measurements to include these non-standard workers as well, to improve social sustainability.

The Long-term Use of Short-term Debt around the World

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lifang Chen ◽  
Yong Li ◽  
Yizhong Wang ◽  
Bohui Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Short Term ◽  
The World

Very short-term forecasting of wind power generation using hybrid deep learning model

2021 ◽  
Vol 296 ◽  
pp. 126564
Author(s):  
Md Alamgir Hossain ◽  
Ripon K. Chakrabortty ◽  
Sondoss Elsawah ◽  
Michael J. Ryan
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Wind Power Generation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
Deep Learning Model

Comprehensive Effects of Short-Term Rental Platforms Across Hotel Types in U.S. and International Destinations

2021 ◽  
pp. 193896552110335
Author(s):  
John W. O’Neill ◽  
Jihwan Yeon
Keyword(s):  
Service Providers ◽  
Comprehensive Analysis ◽  
Competitive Market ◽  
Substitution Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Hotel Performance ◽  
The World ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Location Type ◽  
The Impact

In recent years, short-term rental platforms in the lodging sector, including Airbnb, VRBO, and HomeAway, have received extensive attention and emerged as potentially alternative suppliers of services traditionally provided by established commercial accommodation providers, that is, hotels. Short-term rentals have dramatically increased the available supply of rooms for visitors to multiple international destinations, potentially siphoning demand away from hotels to short-term rental businesses. In a competitive market, an increase in supply with constant demand would negatively influence incumbent service providers. In this article, we examine the substitution effects of short-term rental supply on hotel performance in different cities around the world. Specifically, we comprehensively investigate the substitution effects of short-term rental supply on hotel performance based on hotel class, location type, and region. Furthermore, we segment the short-term rental supply based on its types of accommodations, that is, shared rooms, private rooms, and entire homes, and both examine and quantify the differential effects of these types of short-term rentals on different types of hotels. This study offers a comprehensive analysis regarding the impact of multiple short-term rental platforms on hotel performance and offers both conceptual and practical insights regarding the nature and extent of the effects that were identified.

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