scholarly journals A Simple Method of Finding an Approximate Pattern of the COVID-19 Spread

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hemanta Kumar Baruah
Keyword(s):  
Analysis Data ◽  
Growth Patterns ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
The Third ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
The World ◽  
Spread Pattern ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

ABSTRACTWe are going to show that the pattern of spread of COVID-19 outside China is not monotonic. We have considered the data outside China because we are going to study the data starting from March 21, and by that time the spread had almost come to a stop in China. We have used for our analysis data on total cases outside China till April 25, 2020, and data from April 26 to April 30 for comparison of forecasts and observed values. Right from the beginning the spread pattern was nonlinear, and by the end of the third week of March the nonlinearity became nearly exponential. The exponential pattern thereafter has changed by around March 28, April 5, April 11 and April 18. Since March 21, the spread is following a nearly exponential pattern of growth changing observably at almost regular intervals of seven days. It is but natural that at some point of time the countries that had been contributing in observably large numbers to the total cases would start to show diminishing growth patterns. Therefore long term forecasts using our method would give us slightly overestimated results. However, for short term forecasting our simple method does work very well when we consider the total number of cases in the world and not in any particular country.

The Treatment of Germany

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Franz Neumann
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Nations ◽  
The United States ◽  
German Society ◽  
Military Government ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Third ◽  
The World ◽  
Probationary Period

This chapter considers a variety of methods of treating Germany. The main objective of the United Nations in the treatment of Germany is to prevent it from ever again becoming a threat to the security of the world. The problem of securing this objective could be approached through destruction of Germany's industrial potential, destruction of Germany as a political entity, and removal from German society of the causes of aggression. The chapter shows that the first two solutions should be deferred until it is clear that the third alternative proves unworkable. In order to eliminate the causes of aggressiveness in German society, temporary and long-term disabilities should be imposed upon Germany. The chapter also examines the causes of German aggression, the United States' policy toward Germany, short-term measures during the period of military government, conditional measures during the probationary period, and permanent impositions upon Germany.

The Long-term Use of Short-term Debt around the World

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lifang Chen ◽  
Yong Li ◽  
Yizhong Wang ◽  
Bohui Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Short Term ◽  
The World

scholarly journals Cost-effectiveness of a hybrid emergency room system for severe trauma: a health technology assessment from the perspective of the third-party payer in Japan

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Takahiro Kinoshita ◽  
Kensuke Moriwaki ◽  
Nao Hanaki ◽  
Tetsuhisa Kitamura ◽  
Kazuma Yamakawa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Emergency Room ◽  
Healthcare Costs ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Severe Trauma ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Trauma Patients ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Third

Abstract Background Hybrid emergency room (ER) systems, consisting of an angiography-computed tomography (CT) machine in a trauma resuscitation room, are reported to be effective for reducing death from exsanguination in trauma patients. We aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of a hybrid ER system in severe trauma patients without severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). Methods We conducted a cost-utility analysis comparing the hybrid ER system to the conventional ER system from the perspective of the third-party healthcare payer in Japan. A short-term decision tree and a long-term Markov model using a lifetime time horizon were constructed to estimate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and associated lifetime healthcare costs. Short-term mortality and healthcare costs were derived from medical records and claims data in a tertiary care hospital with a hybrid ER. Long-term mortality and utilities were extrapolated from the literature. The willingness-to-pay threshold was set at $47,619 per QALY gained and the discount rate was 2%. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results The hybrid ER system was associated with a gain of 1.03 QALYs and an increment of $33,591 lifetime costs compared to the conventional ER system, resulting in an ICER of $32,522 per QALY gained. The ICER was lower than the willingness-to-pay threshold if the odds ratio of 28-day mortality was < 0.66. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated that the hybrid ER system was cost-effective with a 79.3% probability. Conclusion The present study suggested that the hybrid ER system is a likely cost-effective strategy for treating severe trauma patients without severe TBI.

Enhancing Science and Technology in the SADC Region: Roles of the Secretariat and Member States

2002 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 70-95
Author(s):  
Rubin Patterson ◽  
James Bozeman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Integration ◽  
Final Section ◽  
Science And Technology ◽  
Foreign Affiliate ◽  
Member States ◽  
The Third ◽  
Economic Context ◽  
The World ◽  
The Status

AbstractIncreased economic integration throughout the world, the growing dominance of foreign affiliate production over international exports, the routinization of innovation, and amplified knowledge-intensiveness of FDI collectively characterize the new global economic environment in which SADC nations are attempting to develop and compete. This paper provides a detailed summary of the global economic context and one of its leading engines, namely, science and technology (S&T). Analysis of Africa's post-independence S&T travails and successes constitutes the second section of the paper. Various factors that have collectively arrested S&T growth are discussed. The third and largest section is the analysis of commonalities and particularities of S&T needs and activities by the SADC secretariat and member states. Focused analytical reports on the status of S&T development efforts in Botswana and Zimbabwe comprise the final section. Based on the contextual threats and opportunities discussed above, the paper concludes with two concrete recommendations: integrating and adopting the elements suggested in the paper for a long-term S&T development model, and pursuing state-sponsored or quasi-state-sponsored reverse engineering campaigns.

scholarly journals From hierarchies to markets and partially back again in electricity: responding to decarbonization and security of supply goals

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Paul L. Joskow
Keyword(s):  
Market Integration ◽  
Investment Incentives ◽  
Wholesale Market ◽  
Security Of Supply ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Institutional Adaptation ◽  
The World ◽  
New Challenges ◽  
And Storage

Abstract Electric power sectors around the world have changed dramatically in the last 25 years as a result of sector liberalization policies. Many electricity sectors are now pursuing deep decarbonization goals which will entail replacing dispatchable fossil generation primarily with intermittent renewable generation (wind and solar) over the next 20–30 years. This transition creates new challenges for both short-term wholesale market design and investment incentives consistent with achieving both decarbonization commitments and security of supply criteria. Thinking broadly about the options for institutional change from a Williamsonian perspective – thinking like Williamson – provides a useful framework for examining institutional adaptation. Hybrid markets that combine ‘competition for the market’ that relies on competitive procurement for long-term purchased power agreements with wind, solar, and storage developers, ideally in a technology neutral fashion, and ‘competition in the market’ that relies on short-term markets designed to produce efficient and reliable operations of intermittent generation and storage, is identified as a promising direction for institutional adaptation. Many auction, contract, and market integration issues remain to be resolved.

scholarly journals Win-win or unequal exchange? The case of the Sino-Congolese cooperation agreements

2009 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 371-396 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefaan Marysse ◽  
Sara Geenen
Keyword(s):  
Joint Venture ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Public Infrastructure ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Internal Development ◽  
Unequal Exchange ◽  
The World ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Investment Agreements

ABSTRACTThe recent involvement of China in sub-Saharan Africa is challenging and changing the world geostrategic scene. In the article, we analyse the agreements between the Congolese government and a group of Chinese state-owned enterprises. A number of public infrastructure works will be financed with Chinese loans. To guarantee reimbursement, a Congolese/Chinese joint venture will be created to extract and sell copper, cobalt and gold. These are the biggest trade/investment agreements that China has so far signed in Africa. This article seeks to contribute to the discussion regarding the agreement's impact on internal development in Congo. Does it create a ‘win-win’ situation for all, or is it an unequal exchange? We outline the internal and international debates and analyse several noteworthy characteristics of the agreements. In conclusion, we present a balanced view on the likely impact on Congo's short-term and long-term development.

scholarly journals The long-term effects of modifiable and unmodifiable risk factors of stroke

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 4626
Author(s):  
Khaled M. Hassan ◽  
Asala M. Wafa ◽  
Manea S. Alosaimi ◽  
Kawthar A. Bokari ◽  
Mosab A. Alsobhi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Arabian Peninsula ◽  
Modifiable Risk Factors ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Kingdom Of Saudi Arabia ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
The Third ◽  
The World

Stroke is a major cerebrovascular disease causes high mortality and morbidity in people around the world. Stroke is the third leading cause of death and the leading cause of adult disability. The largest country in the middle East, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), has been occupying approximately four-fifths of the Arabian Peninsula supporting a population of more than 28 million. Stroke is getting to be a quickly expanding issue and is the leading cause of illness and deaths in Saudi Arabia. It is clear that researches and studies regarding the incidence, prevalence and their sociodemographic properties of stroke is still incomplete due to lack of present studies being conducted in these specified areas. This article aims to discuss the aspect of stroke in Saudi Arabia beside the effects of modifiable and the non-modifiable risk factors from the literature published. 

scholarly journals The new structural economics: patient capital as a comparative advantage

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 4 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justin Yifu Lin ◽  
Yan Wang
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Advantage ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Institutional Factors ◽  
Capital Account ◽  
Public Infrastructure ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Capital Account Liberalization ◽  
The World ◽  
New Structural Economics

The world economy needs a growth-lifting strategy, and infrastructure financing seems to hold the key. Based on the New Structural Economics (Lin, 2010; 2012) we discuss the heterogeneity of capital focusing on the long-term versus short-term orientation (STO). Traditional neoliberalism assumes that capital is homogenous, complete capital account liberalization is “beneficial”.However, previous studies have found evidence of long-term orientation (LTO) in the culture of many Asian economies (Hofstede, 1991). In this exploratory paper, we suggest that the LTO can be considered a special endowment which, under certain circumstances, can be developed into a comparative advantage (CA) in patient capital. If these countries can turn their latent CA into arevealed CA in patient capital, and develop the ability to “package” profitable and non-profitable projects in meaningful ways, they would have a “revealed” competitive advantage in infrastructure financing. The ability to “package” public infrastructure and private services is one of the key institutional factors for success in overseas cooperation.

scholarly journals Prospects for Vietnam’s Economy in 2013

2013 ◽  
Vol 215 ◽  
pp. 02-11
Author(s):  
NGÂN TRẦN HOÀNG
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Economic Restructuring ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Growth Model ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Growth

In 2012, Vietnam?s economy faced great challenges. The world economy experienced more difficulties and complicated upheavals. International trade fell drastically while global growth rate was lower than predicted target, which affected badly the Vietnamese economy because of its full integration into the world economy and large openness. In this context, principal targets set for 2013 are macroeconomic stability, lower inflation rate, higher growth rate, three strategic breakthroughs associated with restructuring of the economy, and a new economic growth model. This paper analyzes obstacles to Vietnam?s economic growth, and offers short-term solutions to bottlenecks and long-term ones to the economic restructuring.

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