scholarly journals A control framework to optimize public health policies in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor M. L. Pataro ◽  
Juliane F. Oliveira ◽  
Marcelo M. Morato ◽  
Alan A. S. Amad ◽  
Pablo I. P. Ramos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Control ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Optimal Control Strategy ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Control Framework ◽  
Political Conditions ◽  
Mitigation Policies ◽  
Varying Population

AbstractThe SARS-CoV-2 pandemic triggered substantial economic and social disruptions. Mitigation policies varied across countries based on resources, political conditions, and human behavior. In the absence of widespread vaccination able to induce herd immunity, strategies to coexist with the virus while minimizing risks of surges are paramount, which should work in parallel with reopening societies. To support these strategies, we present a predictive control system coupled with a nonlinear model able to optimize the level of policies to stop epidemic growth. We applied this system to study the unfolding of COVID-19 in Bahia, Brazil, also assessing the effects of varying population compliance. We show the importance of finely tuning the levels of enforced measures to achieve SARS-CoV-2 containment, with periodic interventions emerging as an optimal control strategy in the long-term.

scholarly journals A control framework to optimize public health policies in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor M L Pataro ◽  
Juliane F Oliveira ◽  
Marcelo M Morato ◽  
Alan A S Amad ◽  
Pablo I P Ramos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Predictive Control ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Optimal Control Strategy ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Control Framework ◽  
Political Conditions ◽  
Adaptive Predictive Control

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic triggered substantial economic and social disruptions. Mitigation policies varied across countries based on resources, political conditions, and human behavior. In the absence of widespread vaccination able to induce herd immunity, strategies to coexist with the virus while minimizing risks of surges are paramount, which should work in parallel with reopening societies. To support these strategies, we present a predictive control system coupled with a nonlinear model able to optimize the level of policies to stop epidemic growth. We applied this system to study the unfolding of COVID-19 in Bahia, Brazil, also assessing the effects of varying population compliance. We show the importance of finely tuning the levels of enforced measures to achieve SARS-CoV-2 containment, with periodic interventions emerging as an optimal control strategy in the long-term.One-sentence summaryWe present an adaptive predictive control algorithm to provide optimal public health measures to slow the COVID-19 transmission rate.

scholarly journals Long-term transmission patterns and public health policies leading to malaria elimination in Panamá

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisbeth Hurtado ◽  
Alberto Cumbrera ◽  
Chystrie Rigg ◽  
Milixa Perea ◽  
Ana María Santamaría ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Malaria Elimination ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Public Health Policies

scholarly journals Assessment of Anti-SARS CoV-2 seroprevalence in habitants of Assam (AASSHA): report of the first serosurvey in Assam

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 2490
Author(s):  
Jyotismita Pathak ◽  
Mridusmita Das ◽  
Khalil Siddique
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Blood Samples ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Background: Today, there is a pressing need to identify the proportion of people immune to the infection by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) so that public health policies can be formulated accordingly for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Keeping this in mind, we designed a serosurvey in Assam with aims to estimate the prevalence of infection as well as the infection to case ratio of the novel coronavirus in Assam.Methods: A total of 9 districts belonging to three different strata of districts were randomly selected for the study. In these selected districts, blood samples were collected from a sample of population and were checked for the antibodies (IgG type). Those testing reactive for the mentioned antibodies were considered to have been infected ever before the onset of the study.Results: A total of 2390 study subjects were tested for the presence of antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2. The proportion of people harboring antibodies against the infection was found to be 23.7 percent.Conclusions: The serosurvey revealed that the proportion of people having antibodies was lower than that required for attaining herd immunity levels in a population. The case to infection ratios reveal that there is a large chunk of population who didn’t know about their infection.

scholarly journals Impact of Vaccination on the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from U.S. States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao Chen ◽  
Hanwei Huang ◽  
Jiandong Ju ◽  
Ruoyan Sun ◽  
Jialiang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Vaccine Hesitancy ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The U.S

Abstract Governments worldwide are implementing mass vaccination programs in an effort to end the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Here, we evaluated the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccination program and predicted the path to herd immunity in the U.S. We estimated that vaccination reduced the total number of new cases by 4.4 million (from 33.0 to 28.6 million), prevented approximately 0.12 million hospitalizations (from 0.89 to 0.78 million), and decreased the population infection rate by 1.34 percentage points (from 10.10–8.76%). We built a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model with vaccination to predict herd immunity. Our model predicts that the U.S. can achieve herd immunity by the last week of July 2021, with a cumulative vaccination coverage of 60.2%. Herd immunity could be achieved earlier with a faster vaccination pace, lower vaccine hesitancy, and higher vaccine effectiveness. These findings improve our understanding of the COVID-19 vaccination and can inform future public health policies.

scholarly journals Frailty variation models for susceptibility and exposure to SARS-CoV-2

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Gabriela M. Gomes ◽  
Marcelo U. Ferreira ◽  
Maria Chikina ◽  
Wesley Pegden ◽  
Ricardo Aguas
Keyword(s):  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Acquired Immunity ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Theoretical Understanding ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Force Of Infection ◽  
Coefficients Of Variation ◽  
Direct Measurements ◽  
Relevant Variation

Individual variation in susceptibility and exposure is subject to selection by force of infection, accelerating the natural acquisition of immunity, and reducing herd immunity thresholds and epidemic final sizes. This is a manifestation of a wider population phenomenon known as "frailty variation" in demography. Despite this theoretical understanding, public health policies continue to be guided by mathematical models that leave out most of the relevant variation and as a result inflate projected infection burdens. Here we focus on the trajectories of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in England and Scotland. We fit models to series of daily deaths and estimate relevant epidemiological parameters, including coefficients of variation which we find in agreement with direct measurements based on published contact surveys. Our estimates are robust to whether the data series encompass one or two pandemic waves. We conclude that herd immunity thresholds are being reached with a larger contribution of vaccination in Scotland than in England, where naturally acquired immunity is higher. These results are relevant to global vaccination policies.

scholarly journals 9.I. Workshop: Healthy ageing and public health: a bound fate

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Older Adults ◽  
Community Care ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Healthy Ageing ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Model Of Care ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Public Health Policies

Abstract The promotion of healthy ageing at all ages of life is a key point of public health strategy in almost all health systems throughout the world with a special focus on the systems of the advanced economies. The World Health Organization promotes a lifespan approach in order to put the basis of healthy ageing in the early life, supported by a growing set of data that show the relevance of life habits and socio-economic condition since the childhood for the older adults' health. However, we already witness the impact of large cohort of older adults who fuel the demand for health and social services, with worrying projection for the next 20-30 years in terms of economic stressors on the public finances coming from the request for Long Term Care as well as for Acute care services. Prevention at all age, namely at older age, is crucial to manage the demand for care. What interventions can lead this approach? What model of care could be put on the field in order to offer a mix of integrate health and social care able to meet the individual needs and to promote the best possible quality of life for each individual? what is the role of bio-psycho-social frailty as synthetic indicator of the needs of care at population level as well as of key information to stratify the risk of negative event at individual level? what professionals should be more involved in the new model of community care? what pathway in terms of training could we promote in the next years to support the shift from acute to long term care? what contribution should be asked to civil society to allow the spread of community care? Answers to these questions should fit with different geographical, political, social and economic settings as well as with different health systems. At the same time the development of a multidimensional assessment of the demand of care, both at individual and population level, is a crucial step to plan effective interventions. The main obstacles to this process seem to stem from the organization of community care still in silos with rare collaboration among different professionals. To overcome the obstacles a mindset change should be achieved mainly by training of personnel to set up a new model of care based on the systematic interaction among the prevention and care actors. Moreover, a pro-active component of prevention and care programs at community level, could strengthen many interventions that address a population which is not always aware of the risk associated to the progression of frailty. Finally, ICT devices could provide a valuable contribution to the reshuffling of community care, if they are embedded in a comprehensive model including a robust investment in human resources. The aim of the workshop is to report on the challenges that healthy ageing process has to face in different world areas and to discuss future developments likely to affect public health policies. Key messages Multidimensional approach to public health policies aimed at increasing health promotion programs impact on older adults is the key to promote healthy ageing. Pro-active services could increase the involvement of older adults’ population into healthy ageing program.

scholarly journals Electronic Cigarettes: Can Dependable Public Health Policies be Developed and Applied without Relevant and Reliable Risk Assessments?

2018 ◽  
Vol 46 (5) ◽  
pp. 245-248
Author(s):  
Michael Balls ◽  
Robert Combes
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Electronic Cigarettes ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Animal Testing ◽  
Acceptable Risk ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Clinical Investigations ◽  
Scant Attention

The use of electronic cigarettes is being encouraged as a way of escaping from the harm resulting from conventional tobacco smoking, while scant attention is being paid to the long-term risks of inhaling electronic cigarette vapour. More information is needed for an acceptable risk assessment, from integrated non-animal testing and sound clinical investigations

Against the Public Goods Conception of Public Health

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 225-233
Author(s):  
Justin Bernstein ◽  
Pierce Randall
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Public Goods ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Political Corruption ◽  
Moral Disagreement ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Related ◽  
Definition Of

Abstract Public health ethicists face two difficult questions. First, what makes something a matter of public health? While protecting citizens from outbreaks of communicable diseases is clearly a matter of public health, is the same true of policies that aim to reduce obesity, gun violence or political corruption? Second, what should the scope of the government’s authority be in promoting public health? May government enact public health policies some citizens reasonably object to or policies that are paternalistic? Recently, some theorists have attempted to address these questions by arguing that something is a matter of public health if and only if it involves a health-related public good, such as clean water or herd immunity. Relatedly, they have argued that appeals to the promotion of public health should only be used to justify the provision of health-related public goods. This public goods conception of public health (PGC) is meant to enjoy advantages over its rivals in three respects: it provides a better definition of public health than rival views, it respects moral disagreement, and it avoids licensing objectionably paternalistic public health policies. We argue, however, that the PGC does just as poorly, or worse, than its rivals in all three respects.

scholarly journals “We’ve all Lost so Much”: The Experiences of Essential Family Caregivers’ Long Term Care Visitations During COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 808-808
Author(s):  
Charlene Chu ◽  
Amanda Yee ◽  
Vivian Stamatopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Family Caregivers ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Irreparable Harm ◽  
Pandemic Response ◽  
Family Centered

Abstract Family caregivers are integral to the care of long-term care (LTC) residents. COVID-19 public health policies initially restricted all essential caregivers from visiting LTC homes. In lieu of in-person visitations, caregivers were allowed technology-based visits then restrictive outdoor visits, followed by indoor visitations. This study aims to illuminate the experiences of essential caregivers’ as they visited their loved ones in LTC during COVID-19’s restrictive policies. We conducted seven caregiver focus groups (N=30) from Ontario and British Columbia, Canada. Thematic analysis and line-by-line coding were completed using NVivo. We found six themes that were common to all the visitation types: 1) “LTC Home disorganization” to facilitate visits and poor communication; 2) “Lack of staffing and resources”; 3) “Mistreatment from staff and management” as caregivers were seen as inconveniences; 4) “Shock and disbelief” when family members first saw their loved ones; 5) “Significant lack of person-centered or family-centered ethos” for example the residents’ needs were ignored such that their cognitive and physical impairments sometimes made visitations impossible, as well as the burden of multiple weekly COVID-19 tests; and, 6) “Collateral damage” in the form of trauma and irreparable harm to the relationships between residents and families. These results emphasized caregivers who ultimately felt betrayed and ignored by the broader healthcare system. Our findings provide an in-depth understanding of how COVID-19 public health policies have impacted the essential caregivers and the long-lasting impacts on residents and caregivers alike. Understanding caregiver’s experiences can inform future pandemic response policies and encourage more person-centered protocols.

scholarly journals La médicalisation de la procréation en Transjordanie. Trajectoires féminines à l’époque du Mandat

Gesnerus ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 75 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-112
Author(s):  
Irene Maffi
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Local Society ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Birth Attendants ◽  
Life Trajectories ◽  
Women's Lives ◽  
Biomedical System ◽  
The Impact

The article focusses on the medicalisation of procreation promoted by the colonial governement in Transjordan and on the consequent transformation of birth practices in the local society. It specifically investigates the impact of public health policies on colonised women’s lives considering the ways the former changed local procreation practices and the new life trajectories they elicited for the women who chose to train as birth attendants. Transjordanian midwives and nurses trained in the newly imposed biomedical system became at the same time objects and agents of social change contributing in the long term to the transformation of birth, parenting and family representations.

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