General decline in the diversity of the airborne microbiota under future climatic scenarios

AbstractMicroorganisms attached to aerosols can travel intercontinental distances, survive, and further colonize remote environments. Airborne microbes are influenced by environmental and climatic patterns that are predicted to change in the near future, with unknown consequences. We developed a new predictive method that dynamically addressed the temporal evolution of biodiversity in response to environmental covariates, linked to future climatic scenarios of the IPCC (AR5). We fitted these models against a 7-year monitoring of airborne microbes, collected in wet depositions. We found that Bacteria were more influenced by climatic variables than by aerosols sources, while the opposite was detected for Eukarya. Also, model simulations showed a general decline in bacterial richness, idiosyncratic responses of Eukarya, and changes in seasonality, with higher intensity within the worst-case climatic scenario (RCP 8.5). Additionally, the model predicted lower richness for airborne potential eukaryotic (fungi) pathogens of plants and humans. Our work pioneers on the potential effects of environmental variability on the airborne microbiome under the uncertain context of climate change.

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Analysing pine forest ecosystems from Transylvania in the context of future Climatic Changes

Present Environment and Sustainable Development ◽

10.15551/pesd2021152016 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 15 (2) ◽

pp. 199-208

Author(s):

Vlad Crisan ◽

Lucian Dinca ◽

Iuliana Gabriela Breaban ◽

Sorin Deca

Keyword(s):

Forest Ecosystems ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

National Level ◽

Climatic Changes ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Best Management ◽

Management Measures ◽

Climatic Scenarios ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Climatic Scenario

A climatic modelling program was used in order to see the extent of changes in future climatic conditions. This can realize prognosis for certain climatic factors that cause extreme climatic phenomena concerning forest ecosystems. The program was applied for forest ecosystems comprised of Scots pine, installed and inventoried on sample surfaces from Transylvania. Simulations were then created within two future climatic scenarios. Two scenarios were chosen: the climatic scenario in which the increase of greenhouse gases would be moderate (rcp-4.5) and the climatic scenario in which the increase would be accentuated (rcp-8.5). The data was then processed, resulting in an analysis focused on the results of future climatic changes on forest ecosystems located in the studied area. By analyzing all three pine stands, we can conclude that the Lechinta stand is the most vulnerable one if the two climatic parameters change. It is necessary to verify and use future climatic scenarios for other areas that have the same species, as well as for other species, in order to see how they will be affected. These results can be used for applying the best management measures for current stands as well as for establishing decisions for installing future stands at a national level.

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Projection of Hydro-Climatic Extreme Events under Climate Change in Yom and Nan River Basins, Thailand

Water ◽

10.3390/w13050665 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (5) ◽

pp. 665

Author(s):

Chanchai Petpongpan ◽

Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit ◽

Supattra Visessri ◽

Duangrudee Kositgittiwong

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Extreme Events ◽

River Basins ◽

Annual Rainfall ◽

Extreme Floods ◽

Extreme Flood ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Near Future ◽

Far Future

Due to a continuous increase in global temperature, the climate has been changing without sign of alleviation. An increase in the air temperature has caused changes in the hydrologic cycle, which have been followed by several emergencies of natural extreme events around the world. Thailand is one of the countries that has incurred a huge loss in assets and lives from the extreme flood and drought events, especially in the northern part. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to assess the hydrological regime in the Yom and Nan River basins, affected by climate change as well as the possibility of extreme floods and droughts. The hydrological processes of the study areas were generated via the physically-based hydrological model, namely the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The projected climate conditions were dependent on the outputs of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 between 2021 and 2095. Results show that the average air temperature, annual rainfall, and annual runoff will be significantly increased in the intermediate future (2046–2070) onwards, especially under RCP 8.5. According to the Flow Duration Curve and return period of peak discharge, there are fluctuating trends in the occurrence of extreme floods and drought events under RCP 2.6 from the future (2021–2045) to the far future (2071–2095). However, under RCP 8.5, the extreme flood and drought events seem to be more severe. The probability of extreme flood remains constant from the reference period to the near future, then rises dramatically in the intermediate and the far future. The intensity of extreme droughts will be increased in the near future and decreased in the intermediate future due to high annual rainfall, then tending to have an upward trend in the far future.

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Imported dengue in Spain: a nationwide analysis with predictive time series analyses

Journal of Travel Medicine ◽

10.1093/jtm/taz072 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 26 (8) ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

Lidia Redondo-Bravo ◽

Claudia Ruiz-Huerta ◽

Diana Gomez-Barroso ◽

María José Sierra-Moros ◽

Agustín Benito ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Control Measures ◽

Severe Dengue ◽

Vector Surveillance ◽

Case Scenario ◽

Worst Case ◽

Temporal Behaviour ◽

The Impact ◽

Near Future ◽

Local Transmission

Abstract Background Of febrile illnesses in Europe, dengue is second only to malaria as a cause of travellers being hospitalized. Local transmission has been reported in several European countries, including Spain. This study assesses the evolution of dengue-related admissions in Spain in terms of time, geographical distribution and individuals’ common characteristics; it also creates a predictive model to evaluate the risk of local transmission. Methods This is a retrospective study using the Hospital Discharge Records Database from 1997 to 2016. We calculated hospitalization rates and described clinical characteristics. Spatial distribution and temporal behaviour were also assessed, and a predictive time series model was created to estimate expected cases in the near future. Figures for resident foreign population, Spanish residents’ trips to endemic regions and the expansion of Aedes albopictus were also evaluated. Results A total of 588 dengue-related admissions were recorded: 49.6% were women, and the mean age was 34.3 years. One person died (0.2%), 82% presented with mild-to-moderate dengue and 7–8% with severe dengue. We observed a trend of steady and consistent increase in incidence (P < 0.05), in parallel with the increase in trips to dengue-endemic regions. Most admissions occurred during the summer, showing significant seasonality with 3-year peaks. We also found important regional differences. According to the predictive time series analysis, a continuing increase in imported dengue incidence can be expected in the near future, which, in the worst case scenario (upper 95% confidence interval), would mean an increase of 65% by 2025. Conclusion We present a nationwide study based on hospital, immigration, travel and entomological data. The constant increase in dengue-related hospitalizations, in combination with wider vector distribution, could imply a higher risk of autochthonous dengue transmission in the years to come. Strengthening the human and vector surveillance systems is a necessity, as are improvements in control measures, in the education of the general public and in fostering their collaboration in order to reduce the impact of imported dengue and to prevent the occurrence of autochthonous cases.

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New Family of Stream Ciphers as Physically Clone-Resistant VLSI-Structures

Cryptography ◽

10.3390/cryptography3020011 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 3 (2) ◽

pp. 11 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Ayoub Mars ◽

Wael Adi

Keyword(s):

Security Analysis ◽

Stream Ciphers ◽

Nonlinear Feedback ◽

Worst Case ◽

Physically Unclonable Functions ◽

New Family ◽

Nonlinear Feedback Shift Registers ◽

Security Levels ◽

Post Quantum Cryptography ◽

Near Future

A concept for creating a large class of lightweight stream ciphers as Key Stream Generators KSGs is presented. The resulting class-size exceeds 2323 possible different KSGs. If one unknown cipher from the KSG-class is randomly picked-up and stored irreversibly within a VLSI device, the device becomes physically hard-to-clone. The selected cipher is only usable by the device itself, therefore cloning it requires an invasive attack on that particular device. Being an unknown selection out of 2323 possible KSGs, the resulting cipher is seen as a Secret Unknown Cipher (SUC). The SUC concept was presented a decade ago as a digital alternative to the inconsistent traditional analog Physically Unclonable Functions (PUFs). This work presents one possible practical self-creation technique for such PUFs as hard-to-clone unknown KSGs usable to re-identify VLSI devices. The proposed sample cipher-structure is based on non-linear merging of randomly selected 16 Nonlinear Feedback Shift Registers (NLFSRs). The created KSGs exhibit linear complexities exceeding 281 and a period exceeding 2161. The worst-case device cloning time complexity approaches 2162. A simple lightweight identification protocol for physically identifying such SUC structures in FPGA-devices is presented. The required self-reconfiguring FPGAs for embedding such SUCs are not yet available, however, expected to emerge in the near future. The security analysis and hardware complexities of the resulting clone-resistant structures are evaluated and shown to offer scalable security levels to cope even with the post-quantum cryptography.

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Possible Increase of Vegetation Exposure to Spring Frost under Climate Change in Switzerland

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos11040391 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (4) ◽

pp. 391 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Ondřej Lhotka ◽

Stefan Brönnimann

Keyword(s):

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Data Set ◽

Spring Frost ◽

Frost Risk ◽

Historical Climate ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Swiss Plateau ◽

Meteorological Observations ◽

Near Future

We assessed future changes in spring frost risk for the Aare river catchment that comprises the Swiss Plateau, the most important agricultural region of Switzerland. An ensemble of 15 bias-corrected regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the EXAR data set forced by the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 concentration pathways were analysed for two future periods. Correlating actual meteorological observations and Swiss phenological spring index, we proposed and tested an RCM-compatible methodology (based on temperature data only) for estimating a start of spring and severity of frost events. In the historical climate, a significant advancement in start of spring was observed and frost events were more frequent in those years in which spring started sooner. In 2021–2050, spring is projected to start eight (twelve) days earlier, considering the RCP 4.5 (8.5) scenario. Substantial changes were simulated for the 2070–2099 period under RCP 8.5, when the total severity of frost events was projected to be increased by a factor of 2.1 compared to the historical climate. The study revealed the possible future increase of vegetation exposure to spring frost in Switzerland and that this phenomenon is noticeable even in the near future under the ‘low concentration’ RCP 4.5 scenario.

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Exposure of the Canadian Wildland-Human Interface (WHI) and population to wildland fire, under current and future climate conditions

Canadian Journal of Forest Research ◽

10.1139/cjfr-2020-0422 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Sandy Erni ◽

Lynn M Johnston ◽

Yan Boulanger ◽

Francis Manka ◽

Pierre Bernier ◽

...

Keyword(s):

First Nations ◽

Wildland Fire ◽

Fire Exposure ◽

Demographic Information ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Forest Fuels ◽

Human Interface ◽

Canadian Population ◽

Climatic Scenarios ◽

Rcp 8.5

In Canada, recent fire seasons have demonstrated the threat of wildland fire in the Wildland-Human Interface (WHI) areas, where forest fuels intermingle with or abut housing, industry, and infrastructure. Although fire activity is expected to increase further in the coming decades as a result of climate change, no WHI-specific estimates of wildland fire exposure are currently available. This study combines spatial and demographic information sources to estimate the current and future wildland fire exposures, as reflected by fire return intervals (FRI) of WHI areas and populations across Canada. The WHI covers 17.3% of the forested area in Canada. Within the WHI, we found that 19.4% of the area currently experiences FRI ≤ 250 years but, by the end of the century, this could increase to 28.8% under RCP 2.6 and to 43.3% under RCP 8.5. Approximately 12.3% of the Canadian population currently live in the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI), which includes 32.1% of the on-reserve First Nations population. Currently, 17.8% of the on-reserve WUI population is exposed to FRI ≤ 250 years, compared to only 4.7% of the remaining WUI population. By 2100, these proportions could reach 39.3% and 17.4% respectively, under the less optimistic climatic scenarios (RCP 8.5).

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Flood-risk vulnerabilities of sanitation facilities in urban informal settlements: Lessons from Kisumu City, Kenya

East African Journal of Science, Technology and Innovation ◽

10.37425/eajsti.v2i4.371 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 2 (4) ◽

Author(s):

Calvince Othoo ◽

Simeon Dulo ◽

Daniel Olago

Keyword(s):

Flood Risk ◽

Informal Settlements ◽

Risk Indicators ◽

Probability Of Exceedance ◽

Flood Risks ◽

Kisumu City ◽

Physical Infrastructure ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Urban Informal Settlements ◽

Near Future

Flood disasters have increased in frequency and severity over the recent decades causing untold destruction to vulnerable physical infrastructure such as sanitation facilities. Factors including construction quality, design, siting, and users’ behaviour further exacerbate the vulnerability of facilities. Despite this reality, very little has been done to document the extent of flood risk facing such facilities in the pro-poor urban informal settlements in developing countries. This study assessed the flood risks of vulnerable sanitation facilities in the urban informal settlements of Kisumu city, Kenya. The methodology involved assessment of sanitation facilities’ flood vulnerabilities and assessment of flood risk models. Flood risk was assessed by estimating runoff from yearly rainfall totals and also by calculating storm return period and probability of exceedance. Vulnerability assessment for each sanitation facility was done by scoring against flood risk indicators ordered by weighted rank. The study observed that majority sanitation facilities in the urban informal settlements were considered “highly vulnerable” (57%). Flood risk analysis predicted growing vulnerability due to shorter storm return periods, especially under the RCP 8.5 scenario. It was established that over 20% of all rainfall events in the 50-year timeline had a higher than 80% probability of exceedance rainfall, signifying higher storm risks. Additionally, the study showed that between 44% of rainfall received in the study area could translate to runoff, in the near future, further compounding flood risk predictions. With key informal settlements such as Nyalenda and Manyatta facing stronger future flood risks, general public health may be threatened, leading to increased social and economic instability on families and households. The study recommends adherence to improved toilet standards of construction and toilet-raising as methods of improving flood risk resilience and adaptation.

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Winter tourism and climate change in the Pyrenees and the French Alps: relevance of snowmaking as a technical adaptation

10.5194/tc-2018-253 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Pierre Spandre ◽

Hugues François ◽

Deborah Verfaillie ◽

Marc Pons ◽

Matthieu Vernay ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Reference Period ◽

Winter Tourism ◽

French Alps ◽

Ski Resorts ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

The Alps ◽

Natural Snow ◽

Near Future

Abstract. Climate change is increasingly regarded as a threat for winter tourism due to the combined effect of decreasing natural snow amounts and decreasing suitable periods for snowmaking. The present work investigated the snow reliability of 175 ski resorts in France (Alps and Pyrenees), Spain and Andorra under past and future conditions using state-of-the-art snowpack modelling and climate projections. The natural snow reliability (i.e. without snowmaking) elevation showed a significant spatial variability in the reference period (1986–2005) and to be highly impacted by the on-going climate change. The technical reliability (i.e. including snowmaking) is projected to rise by 200 m to 300 m in the Alps and by 400 m to 600 m in the Pyrenees in the near future (2030–2050) compared to the reference period for all climate scenarios. While 99 % of ski lift infrastructures are reliable in the reference period thanks to snowmaking, a significant fraction (14 % to 25 %) may be considered "at risk" in the near future. Beyond the mid century, climate projections highly depend on the scenario with steady conditions compared to the near future (RCP 2.6) or continuous decrease of snow reliability (RCP 8.5). According to the "business as usual" scenario (RCP 8.5), there would no longer be any snow reliable ski resorts based on natural snow conditions in French Alps and Pyrenees (France, Spain and Andorra) at the end of the century (2080–2100). Only 24 resorts are projected to remain technically reliable, all being located in the Alps.

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Monitoring the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in China, South Korea, Italy and USA through the net relative rate of infection of the total number of confirmed cases

10.1101/2020.05.15.20103259 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Joao Manoel Losada Moreira

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

South Korea ◽

Real Time ◽

Doubling Time ◽

Temporal Evolution ◽

Relative Rate ◽

Rate Of Change ◽

Spread Rate ◽

And Control ◽

Near Future

Managing the COVID-19 pandemic in the middle of the events requires real-time monitoring of its evolution to perform analyses of containment actions and to project near future scenarios. This work proposes a scheme to monitor the temporal evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic using the time series of its total number of confirmed cases in a given region. The monitored parameter is the spread rate obtained from this time series (day-1) expressed in %/day. The scheme's capability is verified using the epidemic data from China and South Korea. Its projection capability is shown for Italy and United States with scenarios for the ensuing 30 days from April 2nd, 2020. The spread rate (relative rate of change of the time series) is very sensitive to sudden changes in the epidemic evolution and can be used to monitor in real-time the effectiveness of containment actions. The logarithm of this variable allows identifying clear trends of the evolution of the COVID-10 epidemic in these countries. The spread rate calculated from the number of confirmed cases of infection is interpreted as a probability per unit of time of virus infection and containment actions. Its product with the number of confirmed cases of infections yields the number of new cases per day. The stabilization and control of the epidemic for China and South Korea appear to occur for values of this parameter below 0.77 %/day (doubling time of 90 days).

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A framework to incorporate environmental effects into stock assessments informed by fishery-independent surveys: a case study with American lobster (Homarus americanus)

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences ◽

10.1139/cjfas-2020-0076 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 77 (10) ◽

pp. 1700-1710

Author(s):

Cameron T. Hodgdon ◽

Kisei R. Tanaka ◽

Jocelyn Runnebaum ◽

Jie Cao ◽

Yong Chen

Keyword(s):

Environmental Variability ◽

Stock Assessment ◽

Homarus Americanus ◽

Assessment Model ◽

American Lobster ◽

Multiple Model ◽

Environmental Covariates ◽

Model Based ◽

Stock Assessments ◽

Abundance Indices

Stock assessments for a majority of the world’s fisheries often do not explicitly consider the effects of environmental conditions on target species, which can raise model uncertainty and potentially reduce forecasting quality. Model-based abundance indices were developed using a delta generalized linear mixed model that incorporates environmental variability for use in stock assessment to understand how the incorporation of environmental variability impacts our understanding of population dynamics. For this study, multiple model-based abundance indices were developed to test the incorporation of environmental covariates in a length-structured assessment of the American lobster (Homarus americanus) stock in the Gulf of Maine – Georges Bank on the possible improvement of stock assessment quality. Comparisons reveal that modelled indices with environmental covariates appear to be more precise than traditional indices, but model performance metrics and hindcasted fishery statuses revealed that these improvements to indices may not necessarily mean an improved assessment. Model-based abundance indices are not intrinsically better than design-based indices and should be tested for each species individually.

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