Exposure of the Canadian Wildland-Human Interface (WHI) and population to wildland fire, under current and future climate conditions

In Canada, recent fire seasons have demonstrated the threat of wildland fire in the Wildland-Human Interface (WHI) areas, where forest fuels intermingle with or abut housing, industry, and infrastructure. Although fire activity is expected to increase further in the coming decades as a result of climate change, no WHI-specific estimates of wildland fire exposure are currently available. This study combines spatial and demographic information sources to estimate the current and future wildland fire exposures, as reflected by fire return intervals (FRI) of WHI areas and populations across Canada. The WHI covers 17.3% of the forested area in Canada. Within the WHI, we found that 19.4% of the area currently experiences FRI ≤ 250 years but, by the end of the century, this could increase to 28.8% under RCP 2.6 and to 43.3% under RCP 8.5. Approximately 12.3% of the Canadian population currently live in the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI), which includes 32.1% of the on-reserve First Nations population. Currently, 17.8% of the on-reserve WUI population is exposed to FRI ≤ 250 years, compared to only 4.7% of the remaining WUI population. By 2100, these proportions could reach 39.3% and 17.4% respectively, under the less optimistic climatic scenarios (RCP 8.5).

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Hydrologic Regime Changes in a High-Latitude Glacierized Watershed under Future Climate Conditions

Water ◽

10.3390/w10020128 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 128 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Melissa Valentin ◽

Terri Hogue ◽

Lauren Hay

Keyword(s):

High Latitude ◽

Future Climate ◽

Balance Model ◽

Historical Period ◽

Glacier Mass Balance ◽

Hydrologic Regime ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Snow Covered Area ◽

Covered Area ◽

Rcp 8.5

A calibrated conceptual glacio-hydrological monthly water balance model (MWBMglacier) was used to evaluate future changes in water partitioning in a high-latitude glacierized watershed in Southcentral Alaska under future climate conditions. The MWBMglacier was previously calibrated and evaluated against streamflow measurements, literature values of glacier mass balance change, and satellite-based observations of snow covered area, evapotranspiration, and total water storage. Output from five global climate models representing two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) was used with the previously calibrated parameters to drive the MWBMglacier at 2 km spatial resolution. Relative to the historical period 1949–2009, precipitation will increase and air temperature in the mountains will be above freezing for an additional two months per year by mid-century which significantly impacts snow/rain partitioning and the generation of meltwater from snow and glaciers. Analysis of the period 1949–2099 reveals that numerous hydrologic regime shifts already occurred or are projected to occur in the study area including glacier accumulation area, snow covered area, and forest vulnerability. By the end of the century, Copper River discharge is projected to increase by 48%, driven by 21% more precipitation and 53% more glacial melt water (RCP 8.5) relative to the historical period (1949–2009).

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Association between Co-Morbidities and the Prevalence of Excessive Daytime Sleepiness over a Four-Year Period

Clocks & Sleep ◽

10.3390/clockssleep1040035 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 1 (4) ◽

pp. 459-470

Author(s):

Karunanayake ◽

Dosman ◽

Fenton ◽

Rennie ◽

Kirychuk ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Regression Model ◽

First Nations ◽

Excessive Daytime Sleepiness ◽

Daytime Sleepiness ◽

First Nation ◽

Longitudinal Change ◽

Canadian Population ◽

Health Project ◽

Multilevel Logistic Regression Model

Excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) is a common problem in general the Canadian population. It can effect day-to-day activities and is also associated with several health issues. This study aimed to investigate the association between co-morbidities and the prevalence of EDS over a four-year period in adults living in two First Nation communities. Data collected during the First Nations Lung Health Project (FNLHP) conducted in two Cree First Nation communities in Saskatchewan in 2012–2013 (Cycle 1) and 2016 (Cycle 2) were used for this analysis. There were 859 participants aged 18 years and older at baseline (Cycle 1) and 821 participants aged 18 years and older at follow-up (Cycle 2) who completed the interviewer-administered questionnaire. An Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) score > 10 was considered to be abnormal and identified as a case of EDS at both time points. A multilevel logistic regression model using a generalized estimating equations approach was used to analyze the data. The prevalence of EDS at baseline (Cycle 1) was 11.2% (91/815) and 10.0% (80/803) at follow-up (Cycle 2). Based on the predicted model, longitudinal change in the prevalence of EDS was −0.11% for 358 individuals who participated in both cycles. There were 49% males at baseline and 48% males at follow-up. Multivariate regression model results revealed that crowding, shortness of breath, loud snoring, chronic lung disease, depression and gastric reflux were the main significant predictors of EDS. In addition, the interaction between sex and age was significant. Some of the co-morbid conditions were associated with EDS. Therefore, managing such conditions requires considerations in strategies to decrease the prevalence of daytime sleepiness.

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Climate change risks to push large parts of global food production and population centres to unprecedented conditions

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-12897 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Matti Kummu ◽

Matias Heino ◽

Maija Taka ◽

Olli Varis ◽

Daniel Viviroli

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Food Production ◽

Crop Production ◽

Ghg Emissions ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Production Areas ◽

Global Food

The majority of global food production, as we know it, is based on agricultural practices developed within stable Holocene climate conditions. Climate change is altering the key conditions for human societies, such as precipitation, temperature and aridity. Their combined impact on altering the conditions in areas where people live and grow food has not yet, however, been systematically quantified on a global scale. Here, we estimate the impacts of two climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 8.5) on major population centres and food crop production areas at 5 arc-min scale (~10 km at equator) using Holdridge Life Zones (HLZs), a concept that incorporates all the aforementioned climatic characteristics. We found that if rapid growth of GHG emissions is not halted (RCP 8.5), in year 2070, one fifth of the major food production areas and one fourth of the global population centres would experience climate conditions beyond the ones where food is currently produced, and people are living. Our results thus reinforce the importance of following the RCP 2.6 path, as then only a small fraction of food production (5%) and population centres (6%) would face such unprecedented conditions. Several areas experiencing these unprecedented conditions also have low resilience, such as those within Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Chad, and Guinea-Bissau. In these countries over 75% of food production and population would experience unprecedented climatic conditions under RCP 8.5. These and many other hotspot areas require the most urgent attention to secure sustainable development and equity.

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Using a Statistical Preanalysis Approach as an Ensemble Technique for the Unbiased Mapping of GCM Changes to Local Stations

Journal of Hydrometeorology ◽

10.1175/jhm-d-17-0198.1 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 19 (9) ◽

pp. 1447-1465 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Cristián Chadwick ◽

Jorge Gironás ◽

Sebastián Vicuña ◽

Francisco Meza ◽

James McPhee

Keyword(s):

Climatic Variability ◽

Alternative Methods ◽

Absolute Difference ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Mean Absolute Difference ◽

Local Climate ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Ensemble Technique ◽

Climatic Scenarios

Abstract Accounting for climate change, GCM-based projections and their uncertainty are relevant to study potential impacts on hydrological regimes as well as to analyze, operate, and design water infrastructure. Traditionally, several downscaled and/or bias-corrected GCM projections are individually or jointly used to map the raw GCMs’ changes to local stations and evaluate uncertainty. However, the preservation of GCMs’ statistical attributes is by no means guaranteed, and thus alternative methods to cope with this issue are needed. This work develops an ensemble technique for the unbiased mapping of GCM changes to local stations, which preserves local climate variability and the GCMs’ statistics. In the approach, trend percentiles are extracted from the GCMs to represent the range of future long-term climate conditions to which local climatic variability is added. The approach is compared against a method in which each GCM is individually used to build future climatic scenarios from which percentiles are computed. Both approaches were compared to study future precipitation conditions in three Chilean basins under future climate projections based on 45 GCM runs under the RCP8.5 scenario. Overall, the approaches produce very similar results, even if a few trend percentiles are adopted in the GCM preanalysis. In fact, using 5–10 percentiles produces a mean absolute difference of 0.4% in the estimation of the probabilities of consecutive years under different precipitation thresholds, which is ~60% less than the error obtained using the median trend. Thus, the approach successfully preserves the GCM’s statistical attributes while incorporating the range of projected climates.

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Effects of prospective climate change on pasture productivity in the Italian Alps.

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-16229 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Francesca Casale ◽

Daniele Bocchiola

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Availability ◽

Future Climate ◽

Environmental Stability ◽

Special Focus ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Italian Alps ◽

Mountain Areas ◽

Climatic Scenarios ◽

Rcp 8.5

We present here preliminary results in fulfilment of the project IPCC MOUPA (Interdisciplinary Project for assessing current and expected Climate Change impacts on MOUntain PAstures) project, funded by Fondazione Cariplo of Italy, aimed to i) evaluate potentially modified productivity of pasture lands under climate change scenarios, and subsequent on socio-economic, wildlife and biodiversity impacts, within the Italian Alps, and ii) propose management strategies for pasture and multi-functional use of mountain areas.In high mountain areas pastures are a source of living for local communities, and further agriculture and livestock supply ecosystems services (ES). In the last century, increase of temperature nearby +1.5&#176;C was observed in the Alpine region, to increase hereon, and future climate scenarios display potential reduction of water availability, with an increase in precipitation extremes, potentially impacting soil moisture, vegetation, and pasture dynamics (phenology/timing), deeply dependent upon precipitation, temperature, and snow cover.We here defined some fragility indices (FIs), to sketch the effects of climate change on pastures in the Alps, with special focus on Valtellina valley, in the central Alps of Italy. FIs can be used to highlight pressures experienced by pastures, and thresholds for failure, and to develop policies to i) determine zones needing particular management, and adaptation, ii) monitor trends of global environmental stability, iii) evaluate the overall impact of climate change and anthropic influence, and iv) investigate the dynamics of pasture fragility. We chose indices of climate, productivity, and water usage. Some of these FIs can be evaluated starting from observations, but others have to be calculated using models of pasture growth, and water availability. For this reason, a pasture model Poli-Pasture has been set up to simulate the pasture growth, and to evaluate FIs in the target area.To explore the broad range of variability under uncertain future climate, FIs are calculated for present conditions of pastures, and for future projected conditions using i) three climatic scenarios of AR5 of IPCC (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) as depicted by three Global Circulation Models GCMs (EC-Earth, Echam6.0, CCSM4), and ii) four climatic scenarios of the AR6 (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 7.0, RCP 8.5) depicted by three GCMs (EC-Earth3, Echam6.3, CESM2), and some preliminary conclusion are reported for future pasture dynamics, and management therein.

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Climate change threatens the survival of highly endangered Sardinian populations of the snake Hemorrhois hippocrepis

Animal Biology ◽

10.1163/157075511x584191 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 61 (3) ◽

pp. 239-248 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Massimo Capula ◽

Luca Luiselli ◽

Pierluigi Bombi ◽

Manuela D'Amen

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Present Condition ◽

Potential Range ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Anthropogenic Habitat ◽

Climatic Scenarios ◽

Short And Long Term ◽

Suitable Habitats ◽

Habitat Suitability Map

Abstract Sardinian populations of the snake Hemorrhois (= Coluber) hippocrepis are likely the most endangered populations of snakes in Italy. Major threats to survivorship are the anthropogenic habitat alteration and the extremely low population density, while nothing is known about the potential effects that climate change could exert on this species. The main goal of this paper is to provide helpful instruments for the short- and long-term conservation of H. hippocrepis in Sardinia. By means of an ecological modeling approach, we derived the Sardinian whip snake habitat suitability map, and we compared the potential range extent under present condition and future climatic scenarios. Results clearly show an alarming trend for H. hippocrepis conservation: changing climate conditions will cause a dramatic reduction on suitable surface since 2020, with a further collapse by 2050 (down to 11 km2). We also identified areas of species potential persistence up till 2050, where prospective management initiatives could have the greatest probability of success in this region. In particular, only one existing protected area will likely still keep suitable habitats for H. hippocrepis. Therefore, we suggest that very careful management of this relictual area should be implemented by now if we really want to save these exceedingly threatened snake populations.

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Arable Podzols Are a Substantial Carbon Sink under Current and Future Climates: Evidence from a Long-Term Experiment in the Vladimir Region, Russia

Agronomy ◽

10.3390/agronomy11010090 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 90

Author(s):

Igor Ilichev ◽

Vladimir Romanenkov ◽

Sergei Lukin ◽

Vera Pavlova ◽

Stanislav Siptits ◽

...

Keyword(s):

21St Century ◽

Carbon Sink ◽

Soil Layer ◽

Soil Health ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Central Russia ◽

Vladimir Region ◽

Climatic Scenarios ◽

Long Term Experiment

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is an essential component of soil health and a potential sink for greenhouse gases. SOC dynamics in a long-term field experiment with mineral and organic fertilization on loamy sand podzol in the Vladimir Region, Russia, was traced with the dynamic carbon model RothC from 1968 until the present. During this period, C stock increased by 21%, compared to the initial level, with the application of manure, at an average annual rate of 10 t·ha−1. The model was also used to forecast SOC changes up to 2090 for two contrasting RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climatic scenarios. Up to 2090, steady growth of SOC stocks is expected in all compared treatments for both climate scenarios. In the scenarios, this growth rate was the highest up to 2040, decreased in the period 2040–2070, and increased again in the period 2070–2090 for RCP4.5. The highest annual gain was 21–27‰ under the RCP4.5 scenario and 16–21‰ under the RCP8.5 scenario in 2020–2040 in a 0–20 cm soil layer. Under the expected climate conditions in the 21st century, the C input will increase 1.3–1.5 times under the RCP4.5 scenario and decrease by 13–20% for the same period under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Modelling demonstrated potentially more favourable conditions for SOC stability in arable podzols than in Retisols in central Russia in the 21st century.

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Algerian Inuleae tribe species distribution modeling underinfluence of current and future climate conditions

Biodiversity Research and Conservation ◽

10.2478/biorc-2020-0002 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 57 (1) ◽

pp. 23-31

Author(s):

Djilali Tahri ◽

Fatiha Elhouiti ◽

Mohamed Ouinten ◽

Mohamed Yousfi

Keyword(s):

Predictive Power ◽

Species Distribution Modeling ◽

Maximum Entropy Model ◽

Entropy Model ◽

Climatic Zones ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Mean Values ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

Climatic Scenarios ◽

The Impact

AbstractThis study aims to predict the impact of bioclimatic variables in current and future climatic scenarios on the distribution of Inuleae tribe species. Modeling the distribution of 30 species of the Inuleae tribe in Algeria was carried out with a maximum entropy model. Two models with 99 occurrence points were obtained with mean values of Area Under a Curve (AUC) of 0.987±0.01 and 0.971±0.02, reflecting excellent predictive power. Three bioclimatic variables contributed mainly to the first model and four - to the second one with cumulative contributions of 83.8% and 79%, respectively elucidating differences between species of the two major climatic zones in Algeria: the Tell and the Sahara. Two-dimensional niches of Algerian Inuleae species allowed to distinguish these two groups with the distribution of 18 Tell species, characterized by high rainfall (14-18°C, 400-1000 mm) and the other 12 species – distributed in hot and dry environments (17-24°C, 20-200 mm). Modeling the distribution under future conditions showed that habitats of the Saharan region would be much less suitable for these species with a variation in the annual mean temperature increase up to 20% and a decrease in annual precipitation, which could raise to 11 and 15%.

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General decline in the diversity of the airborne microbiota under future climatic scenarios

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-99223-x ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Vicente J. Ontiveros ◽

Joan Cáliz ◽

Xavier Triadó-Margarit ◽

David Alonso ◽

Emilio O. Casamayor

Keyword(s):

Environmental Variability ◽

Temporal Evolution ◽

Worst Case ◽

Environmental Covariates ◽

General Decline ◽

Climatic Scenarios ◽

Airborne Microbes ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Near Future ◽

Climatic Scenario

AbstractMicroorganisms attached to aerosols can travel intercontinental distances, survive, and further colonize remote environments. Airborne microbes are influenced by environmental and climatic patterns that are predicted to change in the near future, with unknown consequences. We developed a new predictive method that dynamically addressed the temporal evolution of biodiversity in response to environmental covariates, linked to future climatic scenarios of the IPCC (AR5). We fitted these models against a 7-year monitoring of airborne microbes, collected in wet depositions. We found that Bacteria were more influenced by climatic variables than by aerosols sources, while the opposite was detected for Eukarya. Also, model simulations showed a general decline in bacterial richness, idiosyncratic responses of Eukarya, and changes in seasonality, with higher intensity within the worst-case climatic scenario (RCP 8.5). Additionally, the model predicted lower richness for airborne potential eukaryotic (fungi) pathogens of plants and humans. Our work pioneers on the potential effects of environmental variability on the airborne microbiome under the uncertain context of climate change.

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Helicobacter pyloriin First Nations and Recent Immigrant Populations in Canada

Canadian Journal of Gastroenterology ◽

10.1155/2012/174529 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 26 (2) ◽

pp. 97-103 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

Nicola L Jones ◽

Naoki Chiba ◽

Carlo Fallone ◽

Alan Thomson ◽

Richard Hunt ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Gastric Cancer ◽

First Nations ◽

Cost Effective ◽

Gastrointestinal Diseases ◽

Population Based ◽

Peptic Ulcers ◽

Canadian Population ◽

High Prevalence ◽

H Pylori ◽

Low Prevalence

The diminishing prevalence ofHelicobacter pyloriinfection among most segments of the Canadian population has led to changes in the etiologies and patterns of associated upper gastrointestinal diseases, including fewer peptic ulcers and their complications. Canadian Aboriginals and recent immigrants are among populations in which the prevalence ofH pyloriinfection remains high and, therefore, the health risks imposed byH pyloriremain a significant concern. Population-based strategies forH pylorieradication in groups with a low prevalence of infection are unlikely to be cost effective, but such measures are attractive in groups in which the prevalence rates of infection remain substantial. In addition to a lower prevalence of peptic ulcers and dyspepsia, the public health value of eradication may be particularly important if this leads to a reduction in the prevalence of gastric cancer in high prevalence groups. Therefore The Canadian Helicobacter Study Group held a conference that brought together experts in the field to address these issues, the results of which are reviewed in the present article. Canadians with the highest prevalence ofH pyloriinfection are an appropriate focus for considering the health advantages of eradicating persistent infection. In Canadian communities with a high prevalence of bothH pyloriand gastric cancer, there remains an opportunity to test the hypothesis thatH pyloriinfection is a treatable risk factor for malignancy.

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