Imported dengue in Spain: a nationwide analysis with predictive time series analyses

Abstract Background Of febrile illnesses in Europe, dengue is second only to malaria as a cause of travellers being hospitalized. Local transmission has been reported in several European countries, including Spain. This study assesses the evolution of dengue-related admissions in Spain in terms of time, geographical distribution and individuals’ common characteristics; it also creates a predictive model to evaluate the risk of local transmission. Methods This is a retrospective study using the Hospital Discharge Records Database from 1997 to 2016. We calculated hospitalization rates and described clinical characteristics. Spatial distribution and temporal behaviour were also assessed, and a predictive time series model was created to estimate expected cases in the near future. Figures for resident foreign population, Spanish residents’ trips to endemic regions and the expansion of Aedes albopictus were also evaluated. Results A total of 588 dengue-related admissions were recorded: 49.6% were women, and the mean age was 34.3 years. One person died (0.2%), 82% presented with mild-to-moderate dengue and 7–8% with severe dengue. We observed a trend of steady and consistent increase in incidence (P < 0.05), in parallel with the increase in trips to dengue-endemic regions. Most admissions occurred during the summer, showing significant seasonality with 3-year peaks. We also found important regional differences. According to the predictive time series analysis, a continuing increase in imported dengue incidence can be expected in the near future, which, in the worst case scenario (upper 95% confidence interval), would mean an increase of 65% by 2025. Conclusion We present a nationwide study based on hospital, immigration, travel and entomological data. The constant increase in dengue-related hospitalizations, in combination with wider vector distribution, could imply a higher risk of autochthonous dengue transmission in the years to come. Strengthening the human and vector surveillance systems is a necessity, as are improvements in control measures, in the education of the general public and in fostering their collaboration in order to reduce the impact of imported dengue and to prevent the occurrence of autochthonous cases.

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Modelling the impact of a smallpox attack in India and influence of disease control measures

BMJ Open ◽

10.1136/bmjopen-2020-038480 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (12) ◽

pp. e038480

Author(s):

Biswajit Mohanty ◽

Valentina Costantino ◽

Jai Narain ◽

Abrar Ahmad Chughtai ◽

Arpita Das ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Management Strategies ◽

Antiviral Agent ◽

Control Measures ◽

System Capacity ◽

Secondary Outcome ◽

Emerging Infections ◽

Case Scenario ◽

Worst Case ◽

Ring Vaccination ◽

The Impact

ObjectivesTo estimate the impact of a smallpox attack in Mumbai, India, examine the impact of case isolation and ring vaccination for epidemic containment and test the health system capacity under different scenarios with available interventions.SettingThe research is based on Mumbai, India population.InterventionsWe tested 50%, 70%, 90% of case isolation and contacts traced and vaccinated (ring vaccination) in the susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered model and varied the start of intervention between 20, 30 and 40 days after the initial attack.Primary and secondary outcome measuresWe estimated and incorporated in the model the effect of past vaccination protection, age-specific immunosuppression and contact rates and Mumbai population age structure in modelling disease morbidity and transmission.ResultsThe estimated duration of an outbreak ranged from 127 days to 8 years under different scenarios, and the number of vaccine doses needed for ring vaccination ranged from 16 813 to 8 722 400 in the best-case and worst-case scenarios, respectively. In the worst-case scenario, the available hospital beds in Mumbai would be exceeded. The impact of a smallpox epidemic may be severe in Mumbai, especially compared with high-income settings, but can be reduced with early diagnosis and rapid response, high rates of case finding and isolation and ring vaccination.ConclusionsThis study tells us that if smallpox re-emergence occurs, it may have significant health and economic impact, the extent of which will depend on the availability and delivery of interventions such as a vaccine or antiviral agent, and the capacity of case isolation and treatment. Further research on health systems requirements and capacity across the diverse states and territories of India could improve the preparedness and management strategies in the event of re-emergent smallpox or other serious emerging infections.

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What is the Worst That Could Happen? Reexamining the 24–25 June 1967 Tornado Outbreak over Western Europe

Weather Climate and Society ◽

10.1175/wcas-d-17-0076.1 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 323-340 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Bogdan Antonescu ◽

Jonathan G. Fairman ◽

David M. Schultz

Keyword(s):

The Netherlands ◽

Western Europe ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Case Scenario ◽

Worst Case ◽

Modern Landscape ◽

The Impact ◽

Near Future ◽

Tornado Outbreaks ◽

Tornado Outbreak

Abstract On 24–25 June 1967 one of the most intense European tornado outbreaks produced extensive damage (approximately 960 houses damaged or destroyed) and resulted in 232 injuries and 15 fatalities in France, Belgium, and the Netherlands. The 24–25 June 1967 tornado outbreak shows that Europe is highly vulnerable to tornadoes. To better understand the impact of European tornadoes and how this impact changed over time, the question is raised, “What would happen if an outbreak similar to the 1967 one occurred 50 years later in 2017 over France, Belgium, and the Netherlands?” Transposing the seven tornado tracks from the June 1967 outbreak over the modern landscape would potentially result in 24 990 buildings being impacted, 255–2580 injuries, and 17–172 fatalities. To determine possible worst-case scenarios, the tornado tracks are moved in a systematic way around their observed positions and positioned over modern maps of buildings and population. The worst-case scenario estimates are 146 222 buildings impacted, 2550–25 440 injuries, and 170–1696 fatalities. These results indicate that the current disaster management policies and mitigation strategies for Europe need to include tornadoes, especially because exposure and tornado risk is anticipated to increase in the near future.

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SPATIOTEMPORAL VISUALIZATION OF TSUNAMI WAVES USING KML ON GOOGLE EARTH

ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences ◽

10.5194/isprs-archives-xlii-2-w7-1291-2017 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol XLII-2/W7 ◽

pp. 1291-1299 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

H. Mohammadi ◽

M. R. Delavar ◽

M. A. Sharifi ◽

M. D. Pirooz

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Disaster Management ◽

Google Earth ◽

Disaster Mitigation ◽

Case Scenario ◽

Worst Case ◽

Tsunami Waves ◽

Spatiotemporal Visualization ◽

Virtual Globes ◽

The Impact

Disaster risk is a function of hazard and vulnerability. Risk is defined as the expected losses, including lives, personal injuries, property damages, and economic disruptions, due to a particular hazard for a given area and time period. Risk assessment is one of the key elements of a natural disaster management strategy as it allows for better disaster mitigation and preparation. It provides input for informed decision making, and increases risk awareness among decision makers and other stakeholders. Virtual globes such as Google Earth can be used as a visualization tool. Proper spatiotemporal graphical representations of the concerned risk significantly reduces the amount of effort to visualize the impact of the risk and improves the efficiency of the decision-making process to mitigate the impact of the risk. The spatiotemporal visualization of tsunami waves for disaster management process is an attractive topic in geosciences to assist investigation of areas at tsunami risk. In this paper, a method for coupling virtual globes with tsunami wave arrival time models is presented. In this process we have shown 2D+Time of tsunami waves for propagation and inundation of tsunami waves, both coastal line deformation, and the flooded areas. In addition, the worst case scenario of tsunami on Chabahar port derived from tsunami modelling is also presented using KML on google earth.

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A Case Study - Life Extension of Offshore Bridge Bearings

10.2118/208148-ms ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Ahmed Abdelkhalek ◽

Govindavilas Sudhesh ◽

Anjan Sarkar ◽

Mohammed Eissa

Keyword(s):

Cost Savings ◽

Holistic Approach ◽

Life Extension ◽

Case Scenario ◽

Worst Case ◽

Maintenance And Repair ◽

Seasonal Monitoring ◽

The Impact ◽

Bridge Bearings

Abstract Structural bearings of 47 offshore platform-link bridges with average age of 40 years were inspected and recommended for replacements due to their poor condition. Replacement of bridge bearings involves major risk and production interruptions given the structural modifications, and critical piping and E&I disconnections required for safe jacking-lifting activities required during the process. This paper presents the approach adopted to assure the integrity of the bridges and extend their lives without the need to replace the bearings. The approach employed failure mode and effect analysis to identifying and narrowing down areas that need focused efforts while tackling the problem. Scenario based structural assessments were carried out to examine the impact of the level of movement-allowing bearings functionality on the integrity of the bridge and its supporting structures; identify critical locations to be targeted during focused inspections; and establish envelopes for monitoring thermal expansion and contraction of the bridges. Guidelines were developed and implemented for integrated inspection-maintenance and repair campaign, which aimed to tackle corrosion issues and to install movement-monitoring indicators. Indicator seasonal monitoring is employed to establish the functionality of bearings on the long-term. The what-if structural assessments revealed that even in the worst-case scenario (in which the bearing are completely jammed) the option of local strengthening of the bridge and its supporting elements is more attractive than bearing replacement. The integrated inspection-maintenance and repair campaigns revealed that excessive corrosion levels observed from historic visual inspections on external non-critical bearing components (e.g: guide plates, angles, etc.) is not indicative of the condition of the internal load-bearing components (pedestals) which experienced much lower corrosion levels. The seasonal monitoring of bridge movements revealed that the 40+ years old Teflon pads are still functional and allow the bridges expansion and contraction. The developed holistic approach enabled demonstration of the fitness for service of the bearings, and provided means for assuring their long-term performance through monitoring. The results assured safety, integrity and delivered significant cost savings through aversion brownfield modifications, and production loss associated with bridge jacking and bearing replacement operations.

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Assembly System Configuration Design for Reconfigurability Under Uncertain Production Evolution

Journal of Manufacturing Science and Engineering ◽

10.1115/1.4043581 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 141 (7) ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Zhengqian Jiang ◽

Hui Wang ◽

Maxim A. Dulebenets ◽

Junayed Pasha

Keyword(s):

System Throughput ◽

Assembly System ◽

Configuration Design ◽

System Configuration ◽

Case Scenario ◽

Worst Case ◽

Design Evolution ◽

Product Evolution ◽

Concurrent Optimization ◽

The Impact

Assembly system configuration determines the topological arrangement of stations with defined logical material flow among them. The design of assembly system configuration involves (1) subassembly planning that defines subassembly tasks and between-task material flows and (2) workload balancing that determines the task-station assignments. The assembly system configuration should be flexibly changed and updated to cope with product design evolution and updating. However, the uncertainty in future product evolution poses significant challenges to the assembly system configuration design since the higher cost can be incurred if the assembly line suitable for future products is very different from that for the current products. The major challenges include (1) the estimation of reconfiguration cost, (2) unavailability of probability values for possible scenarios of product evolution, and (3) consideration of the impact of the subassembly planning on the task-station assignments. To address these challenges, this paper formulates a concurrent optimization problem to design the assembly system configuration by jointly determining the subassembly planning and task-station assignments considering uncertain product evolution. A new assembly hierarchy similarity model is proposed to estimate the reconfiguration effort by comparing the commonalities among different subassembly plans of current and potential future product designs. The assembly system configuration is chosen by maximizing both assembly hierarchy similarity and assembly system throughput under the worst-case scenario. A case study motivated by real-world scenarios demonstrates the applicability of the proposed method including scenario analysis.

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The Impact of Flexbarrier Ingress on Flexlok Stress

Volume 3: Pipeline and Riser Technology ◽

10.1115/omae2009-79624 ◽

2009 ◽

Author(s):

Jing Lu ◽

Frank Ma ◽

Zhimin Tan ◽

Terry Sheldrake

Keyword(s):

Internal Pressure ◽

Structural Function ◽

Analysis Model ◽

Flexible Pipe ◽

Case Scenario ◽

Element Analysis ◽

Worst Case ◽

Ongoing Research ◽

Nominal Size ◽

The Impact

An unbonded flexible pipe typically consists of multiple metallic and thermoplastic layers, where each layer is designed to provide a specific structural function. The burst resistance against the internal pressure in an unbonded flexible pipe is provided mainly by its Flexlok layer. The Flexlok is made by helically-wound steel wires, with neighbouring wires interlocking each other. Beneath the Flexlok is the Flexbarrier, a polymer layer, acting as the boundary for conveyed fluids. The internal pressure is passed onto the Flexlok through the Flexbarrier layer. Under internal pressure, the Flexbarrier can creep into the gaps between Flexlok wires. Theoretically, the polymer material ingress could reduce the flexibility of the Flexlok due to premature lock-up between Flexlok wires and subsequently increase the stress levels. This study presents a 3D finite element analysis model developed to quantify the stress elevation in the Flexlok wire, caused by the Flexbarrier layer ingress. In terms of Flexlok gap size distribution, both nominal and worst case scenarios are studied. In the nominal scenario, the Flexlok gap sizes are evenly distributed. In the worst case scenario, the Flexlok gap is assumed to be completely closed at one position while the gaps at the neighbouring positions are twice the nominal size. Flexbarrier ingress with different temperatures is also studied. Conclusions are obtained by analyzing the simulation results. The work presented is part of an ongoing research and development project.

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Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ◽

10.1073/pnas.1912206117 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 117 (17) ◽

pp. 9250-9259 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

Kevin Schneider ◽

Wopke van der Werf ◽

Martina Cendoya ◽

Monique Mourits ◽

Juan A. Navas-Cortés ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Xylella Fastidiosa ◽

Plant Diseases ◽

Disease Spread ◽

Economic Damage ◽

Climatic Suitability ◽

Case Scenario ◽

Worst Case ◽

Ongoing Research ◽

Phytosanitary Measures ◽

The Impact

Xylella fastidiosa is the causal agent of plant diseases that cause massive economic damage. In 2013, a strain of the bacterium was, for the first time, detected in the European territory (Italy), causing the Olive Quick Decline Syndrome. We simulate future spread of the disease based on climatic-suitability modeling and radial expansion of the invaded territory. An economic model is developed to compute impact based on discounted foregone profits and losses in investment. The model projects impact for Italy, Greece, and Spain, as these countries account for around 95% of the European olive oil production. Climatic suitability modeling indicates that, depending on the suitability threshold, 95.5 to 98.9%, 99.2 to 99.8%, and 84.6 to 99.1% of the national areas of production fall into suitable territory in Italy, Greece, and Spain, respectively. For Italy, across the considered rates of radial range expansion the potential economic impact over 50 y ranges from 1.9 billion to 5.2 billion Euros for the economic worst-case scenario, in which production ceases after orchards die off. If replanting with resistant varieties is feasible, the impact ranges from 0.6 billion to 1.6 billion Euros. Depending on whether replanting is feasible, between 0.5 billion and 1.3 billion Euros can be saved over the course of 50 y if disease spread is reduced from 5.18 to 1.1 km per year. The analysis stresses the necessity to strengthen the ongoing research on cultivar resistance traits and application of phytosanitary measures, including vector control and inoculum suppression, by removing host plants.

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Lossless WDM PON Photonic Integrated Receivers Including SOAs

Applied Sciences ◽

10.3390/app9122457 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 9 (12) ◽

pp. 2457 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Goki ◽

Imran ◽

Porzi ◽

Toccafondo ◽

Fresi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Numerical Analysis ◽

Wavelength Division Multiplexing ◽

Flip Chip ◽

Optical Network ◽

Silicon On Insulator ◽

Passive Optical Network ◽

Case Scenario ◽

Worst Case ◽

The Impact ◽

Wdm Transmission

The role of a semiconductor optical amplifier (SOA) for amplifying downstream traffic at optical network terminals (ONT) within a silicon-photonics integrated receiver in a high capacity passive optical network (PON) is investigated. The nearly traveling wave SOA effects are evaluated by considering fabrication and link loss constraints through numerical analysis and experimental validation. The impact of hybrid integration of a SOA chip on a silicon on insulator (SOI) photonic chip using the flip chip bonding technique on SOA design is evaluated through numerical analysis of a multi section cavity model. The performance of the proposed ONT receiver design employing twin parallel SOAs is evaluated experimentally on a 32 × 25 Gb/s OOK WDM transmission system considering cross gain modulation (XGM) and amplified spontaneous emission (ASE) constraints. The XGM impact is evaluated through 32 channel wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) transmission and a likely PON worst case scenario of high channel power difference (~10 dB) between adjacent channels. The impact of ASE is evaluated through the worst-case polarization condition, i.e., when all of the signal is coupled to only one. Successful transmission was achieved in both worst-case conditions with limited impact on performance. SOA results indicate that a maximum residual facet reflectivity of 4 × 10−4 for the chip-bonded device can lead to a power penalty below 2 dB in a polarization-diversity twin SOAs receiver.

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Development of a Robust Design of a Wet Etched Co-integrated Pressure Sensor

MRS Proceedings ◽

10.1557/opl.2011.61 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 1299 ◽

Author(s):

Wolfgang Schreiber-Prillwitz ◽

Mikko Saukoski ◽

Gerhard Chmiel ◽

Reinhart Job

Keyword(s):

Robust Design ◽

Pressure Sensor ◽

Electrical Signal ◽

Strong Impact ◽

Front Side ◽

Case Scenario ◽

Worst Case ◽

Scale Range ◽

Alignment Errors ◽

The Impact

ABSTRACTThe performance of a co-integrated silicon pressure sensor for the 1-bar full scale range was optimized. A gain in signal of ca. 5% was calculated and verified by optimizing the piezoresis-tors position on the membrane. The influence of alignment errors between the backside cavity mask and the positions of the piezoresistors on the membrane’s front side were calculated. De-pending on the asymmetry, a maximal electrical signal deviation of 1% was found. The impact of underetching effects (KOH) at the backside mask on electrical signals was also analyzed. Un-deretching has a certain range, alters the membrane size, and has a strong impact on sensor per-formances. In a worst case scenario signal variations caused by underetching could be finally reduced from 15% to 4%.

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Lithological controls on soil formation rates and the implications for soil sustainability

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-11626 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Daniel Evans ◽

John Quinton ◽

Andrew Tye ◽

Angel Rodes ◽

Jessica Davies ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Soil Erosion ◽

Soil Formation ◽

Case Scenario ◽

Worst Case ◽

Radionuclide Analysis ◽

Rock Types ◽

Soil Sustainability ◽

The Uk ◽

The Impact ◽

Cosmogenic Radionuclide

Soils deliver multiple ecosystem services and their long-term sustainability is fundamentally determined by the rates at which they form and erode. Our knowledge and understanding of soil formation is not commensurate with that of soil erosion, but developments in cosmogenic radionuclide analysis have enabled soil scientists to more accurately constrain the rates at which soils form from bedrock. To date, all three major rock types &#8211; igneous, sedimentary and metamorphic lithologies &#8211; have been examined in such work. Soil formation rates have been measured and compared between these rock types but the impact of rock characteristics such as mineralogy or porosity on soil formation rates has seldom been explored. In this UK-based study, we addressed this knowledge gap by using cosmogenic radionuclide analysis to investigate whether the lithological variability of sandstone governs pedogenesis. Soil formation rates from two arable hillslopes underlain by different types of arenite sandstone were calculated. Rates ranged from 0.090 to 0.193 mm yr-1 and although the sandstones differed in porosity, no significant differences in soil formation rates were found between them. On the contrary, these rates significantly differed from those measured at two other sandstone-based sites in the UK, and with the rates compiled in global inventory of cosmogenic studies on sandstone-based soils. We suggest that this is due to the absence of matrix and the greater porosities exhibited at our UK sites in comparison to the matrix-abundant, less porous wackes that have been studied previously. We then used soil formation rates to calculate first-order soil lifespans for both of our hillslopes. In a worst case scenario, the lifespan of the A horizon at one of our sites could be eroded in less than 40 years, with bedrock exposure occurring in less than 190 years. &#160;This underlines the urgency required in ameliorating rates of soil erosion. However, we also demonstrate the importance of measuring soil erosion and formation in parallel, at the site of interest, rather than calculating a mean rate from the literature, as we demonstrate soil formation rates can vary significantly among variants of the same rock type.&#160;

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