scholarly journals Gravity model and Pakistan - China Trade

2021 ◽  
Vol 258 ◽  
pp. 06036
Author(s):  
Alexander Okhotnikov ◽  
Muhammad Imtiaz Subhani ◽  
Shatila Khodor ◽  
Denis Ushakov
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
New Paradigm ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Export Volume

Pakistan being an important ally of the war against terror paying huge price of not merely of innocent lives of people but huge monetary losses in many sectors of economy, one lucrative sector is international trade. Pakistan’s export potential has undergone strenuous pressures to perform according to the past performance. There was a need to reveal new export potential and lucrative sectors of economy with recommended policy changes so that new paradigm change in international trade can be initiated. This empirical study carried to meet the objective in which gravity model is used for investigating the bilateral trade between Pakistan and China. This model is being used extensively by the researchers worldwide to make predictions about volume of international trade to suggest the policy changes in international trade management. The findings confirm that the tariff rates significantly and negatively affects the Export Volume from Pakistan to China as t-stats > 1.5 which results the trade deficit to be increased, while the affinity (i.e. bilateral visits of people of Pakistan and China to each other countries, bilateral dialogues between China and Pakistan, Social integrations programs between China and Pakistan etc.) between China and Pakistan and Geography (i.e. the trading countries are both in Asia with the connected borders) significantly and positively affects the Export Volume from Pakistan to China as t-stats > 1.5, thus the trade deficit is reduced due to stated affinity and geography. The large value of F-stats also reports that the relationships of export volume from Pakistan to China with all outlined stated explanatory variables/ predictors (i.e. the gravity model for bilateral trade between Pakistan and China) will remain alive for longer period of time in future.

Currency Manipulations and Bilateral Trade Between China and the USA

2017 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 171-184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masoud Moghaddam ◽  
Jie Duan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
The Us ◽  
Spot Exchange Rate ◽  
Main Culprit ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Strong Relation

The US trade deficit with China has existed for a long time, and its dollar value has been on the rise recently. It is widely believed that the main culprit is the manipulated value of Renminbi relative to the US dollar. Towards that end, this article re-examines the spot exchange rate and bilateral trade nexus using the Fourier approximation and a variant of the well-known gravity model during the sample period 1993: q1–2014: q1. Although China’s exports to the US Granger cause the exchange rate in a co-integrated space, the findings of a vector error correction model indicate that there is not a strong relation between the two. Indeed, within the aforementioned sample, only 15.52 per cent of changes in China’s exports to the USA are attributable to changes in the spot exchange rate. This is noticeably much smaller than impacts of the other variables utilized in the estimated gravity model. As such, the palpable trade imbalance between the USA and China cannot be single-handedly blamed on the spot exchange rate manipulations.

The Thucydides Trap as an Alternative Explanation for the US–China Trade War

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 42-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Imad A. Moosa
Keyword(s):  
Alternative Explanation ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
National Income ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Basic Principles ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Thucydides Trap ◽  
Trade War

The current trade war between the USA and China is perceived to be motivated by the US desire to curtail the bilateral trade deficit, on the assumption that reducing the deficit boosts economic growth. This flawed proposition indicates gross misunderstanding of the national income identity and the basic principles of macroeconomics. The imposition of tariffs will not reduce the trade deficit as the assumptions and conditions required for a smooth working of the process are unrealistic and counterfactual. The notion of an economic Thucydides trap is put forward to explain why the trade war is motivated by US apprehension about China’s rising economic power.

scholarly journals The Effect of Corruption on International Trade: A Case Study of Indonesian Trade to Nine Countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Danang Ibnu Atsir ◽  
Sunaryati Sunaryati
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Random Effect ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Geographical Distance ◽  
Pseudo Maximum Likelihood

Corruption is a form of abuse of ethical authority by public officials, which is divided into two parts: bribery and forced collection. The effect of corruption like bribes and illegal levies is widespread in the public sector. One interesting investigation is the effect of corruption on international trade. Corruption becomes a barrier in international trade, where corruption plays a role in the access of trade goods and services from within and abroad. Using the gravity model, the focus of this research was the effect of corruption on international trade by taking a case study of Indonesia’s bilateral trade with its nine largest export destination countries. Using panel data, analysis tools used in this research were common effect, fixed effect, random effect and poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML). In this research, it was found that geographical distance variable in its fixed units caused the omitted variable so that the error term correlated with independent variables. In order to overcome the problem, poisson pseudo maximum likelihood method was used in performing regression gravity model with linear log form, so the omitted variable issue on the geographical distance can be eliminated. The results of this research concluded that corruption played a role in international trade through bureaucratic mechanisms of trade and investment licensing and the effect of corruption was more detrimental to exporters.Keywords:   Gravity Model, Corruption, International Trade, Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML).

scholarly journals International trade and endogenous standards: the case of GMO regulations

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 415-437 ◽  
Author(s):  
MAURO VIGANI ◽  
VALENTINA RAIMONDI ◽  
ALESSANDRO OLPER
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
Approval Process ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flows ◽  
Gmo Regulation ◽  
Bilateral Differences

AbstractThis paper quantifies the effect of GMO regulation on bilateral trade flows of agricultural products. We develop a composite index of GMO regulations and using a gravity model we show that bilateral differences in GMO regulation negatively affect trade flows. This effect is especially driven by labeling, approval process, and traceability. Our results are robust to the endogeneity of GMO standards to trade flows.

Causes of U.S.-China trade imbalances: a review

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-44
Author(s):  
Yongqing Wang
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Previous Literature ◽  
Common View ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trade Imbalances ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Trump Administration

Purpose It is a common view to Trump administration and public that devaluation of Chinese currency is the origin of the US trade deficit. However, the previous literature does not support this common view. To better understand the causes of the US trade imbalances with China, this study aims to review the previous literature focusing on the causes of bilateral trade imbalances between the USA and China. Design/methodology/approach Review previous literature according to the different reasons that each paper studies. Findings Based on the previous literature, the Chinese exchange rate is not the main reason for the US trade imbalances. The official US trade figures overestimate the amount of deficit. The actual causes for the US trade deficit with China perhaps should be the relocation of production to China, low saving in the USA and high saving in China, and the US dollar as the international currency and reserve. Originality/value By reviewing previous literature, the authors could better understand the puzzle of the US trade deficit with China.

Gravity's Rainbow: A dynamic latent space model for the world trade network

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
MICHAEL D. WARD ◽  
JOHN S. AHLQUIST ◽  
ARTURAS ROZENAS
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Directed Graphs ◽  
Gravity Models ◽  
Model Specification ◽  
Trade Data ◽  
Latent Space ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
The Usa

AbstractThe gravity model, long the empirical workhorse for modeling international trade, ignores network dependencies in bilateral trade data, instead assuming that dyadic trade is independent, conditional on a hierarchy of covariates over country, time, and dyad. We argue that there are theoretical as well as empirical reasons to expect network dependencies in international trade. Consequently, standard gravity models are empirically inadequate. We combine a gravity model specification with “latent space” networks to develop a dynamic mixture model for real-valued directed graphs. The model simultaneously incorporates network dependencies in both trade incidence and trade volumes. We estimate this model using bilateral trade data from 1990 to 2008. The model substantially outperforms standard accounts in terms of both in- and out-of-sample predictive heuristics. We illustrate the model's usefulness by tracking trading propensities between the USA and China.

scholarly journals International Trade and Income Differences

2010 ◽  
Vol 100 (5) ◽  
pp. 2093-2124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael E Waugh
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Total Factor Productivity ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Factor Productivity ◽  
Income Differences ◽  
Poor Countries ◽  
Standards Of Living ◽  
Trade Frictions ◽  
Rich Countries

I develop a novel view of the trade frictions between rich and poor countries by arguing that to reconcile bilateral trade volumes and price data within a standard gravity model, the trade frictions between rich and poor countries must be systematically asymmetric, with poor countries facing higher costs to export relative to rich countries. I provide a method to model these asymmetries and demonstrate the merits of my approach relative to alternatives in the trade literature. I then argue that these trade frictions are quantitatively important to understanding the large differences in standards of living and total factor productivity across countries. (JEL F11, F13, F14, O19)

scholarly journals Predictably Unpredictable Trade Policy – the United States versus All Others

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 113-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. S. DMITRIEV
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Market Access ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Import Restrictions

The article explores the Trump administration’s trade policy,  characterized by: attempts to rewrite the rules of international trade  according to the regulations established by the American side, “skepticism” with respect to the international regulatory  institutions of foreign trade, a course on the renegotiation of the  existing agreements. In a relationship with a number of countries,  manifestations of “ultimatizm” – the desire to negotiate with them from a position of strength are becoming increasingly evident.  Relapses of economic isolationism under the slogan “Restore the Greatness of America” periodically are being transformed into  concrete protectionist actions. The number of imposed import restrictions is growing, and their arsenal is expanding. It is  concluded, that tightening of the market access to the domestic  market for foreign suppliers is unlikely to lead to a significant  reduction in the US trade deficit. Bet on abandoning multilateral  arrangements in favor of bilateral trade agreements, conscious  downplaying of the role and importance of the WTO and other  international institutions can also be counterproductive. Focus on  dominance in the sphere of foreign economic activity apparently will remain the main direction of Trump trade policy until the end of the  term of his administration. However, under pressure from competitors, and because of the lack of real allies, the United States  will be forced to demonstrate greater flexibility and pragmatism, the  propensity to compromise and to establishment of temporary or  permanent blocs with their main trading partners. The idea of  “normality”, refraining from populism, will gradually begin to return  to the trade policy of this country. If, however the Trump  government will continue to act in isolation, without taking into  account the opinion of the world community, an increasing number  of partners of the United States will perceive it not as a leader, but as a violator of the rules of international trade. Under certain  circumstances, such a policy can provoke local and global trade  conflicts. In addition, the United States not necessarily will have to be the winner in them.

scholarly journals Determining the economic impact of cryptocurrency adoption on international trade from a gravity model framework

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric R. Chen
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Aggregated Data ◽  
Weak Institutions ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flows

As cryptocurrencies develop and circulate at greater rates, countries have appeared to consider the technology as an adoptable medium of exchange. By expanding the influence of cryptocurrencies through adoption, countries raise its impact on the global economy. This paper is the first to apply an augmented version of the gravity model to examine the effects of global cryptocurrency adoption on international trade. This empirical study involves aggregating datasets on U.S. bilateral trade flows, gravity variable statistics, and the adoption of cryptocurrencies. In application of the gravity model, regression analyses are used on the aggregated data to test the magnitude of cryptocurrencies’ impact on trade. Based on the overall findings, the variables for cryptocurrency adoption produce negative coefficients suggesting a negative correlation between the adoption of cryptocurrencies and international trade. The central tendency in the empirical evidence offers the interpretation that countries with weak institutions to promote trade are more likely to adopt cryptocurrencies resulting in a negative association between cryptocurrency adoption and trade.

The Day After Tomorrow: Evaluating the Burden of Trump's Trade War

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meixin Guo ◽  
Lin Lu ◽  
Liugang Sheng ◽  
Miaojie Yu
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
The United States ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Unilateral Action ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Welfare Losses ◽  
Trade War

During his U.S. presidential campaign Donald Trump threatened China with the imposition of high import tariffs on its exports to the United States. To evaluate the repercussions of such an action, this paper uses Eaton and Kortum's 2002 multi-sector, multi-country general equilibrium model with intersectional linkages to forecast how exports, imports, output, and real wages would change if Trump's threat of 45 percent tariffs is carried out. To view plausible scenarios, we evaluate the case of a unilateral action on the part of the United States, as well as a scenario where China retaliates by imposing an equally high 45 percent tariff on its imports from the United States. In addition, because the high U.S. trade deficit with China is a factor that underpins calls for tariff action, we explore simulations where the trade balance is restored to balance as well as a scenario in which the trade balance is unchanged. In all of the scenarios, the calibration exercise suggests that a trade war triggered by high U.S. import tariffs will lead to a collapse in U.S.–China bilateral trade. In all of the scenarios, the United States will experience large social welfare losses, whereas China may lose or gain slightly depending on the effect of trade war on the U.S.–China trade balance. Globally, some small open economies may experience small benefits, while other countries may suffer collateral damage.

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