scholarly journals Analysis of government bonds and prediction of their development after the pandemic caused by COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 91 ◽  
pp. 01044
Author(s):  
Petr Suler ◽  
Vaclav Polan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Yield Curves ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
The Government

This paper describes the current state of the government bond market and predicts the future development of government bond yields using the yield curve to bond maturity, spot yield curve, credit rating and simple prediction. The ongoing economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is changing the lives of many people. In order for each individual country to help its households, prevent mass job lay-offs and high mortality, their fiscal budget deficits are growing to unexpected heights. The aim of this paper is to analyse government bonds as one of the tools that can help both the state and individual households at this time. Government bond yields are analysed and compared with other countries based on the development of government bonds using credit ratings, yield curves to maturity, spot yield curves and simple historical development of government bonds from the previous economic crisis in 2008. Based on the results, we conclude that countries severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent mortality, such as Italy, have a relatively stable yield. In contrast, for countries such as the Czech Republic and South Korea, yields to maturity at both ends are relatively declining.

A Note Concerning the Dynamics of Government Bond Yields

2021 ◽  
pp. 056943452098827
Author(s):  
Tanweer Akram
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
State Theory ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Government Bonds

Keynes argued that the central bank can influence the long-term interest rate on government bonds and the shape of the yield curve mainly through the short-term interest rate. Several recent empirical studies that examine the dynamics of government bond yields not only substantiate Keynes’s view that the long-term interest rate responds markedly to the short-term interest rate but also have relevance for macroeconomic theory and policy. This article relates Keynes’s discussions of money, the state theory of money, financial markets, investors’ expectations, uncertainty, and liquidity preference to the dynamics of government bond yields for countries with monetary sovereignty. Investors’ psychology, herding behavior in financial markets, and uncertainty about the future reinforce the effects of the short-term interest rate and the central bank’s monetary policy actions on the long-term interest rate. JEL classifications: E12; E40; E43; E50; E58; E60; F30; G10; G12; H62; H63

scholarly journals Spatio‑Temporal Analysis of the Impact of Credit Rating Agency Announcements on the Government Bond Yield in the World in the Period of 2008–2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (342) ◽  
pp. 133-150
Author(s):  
Elżbieta Szulc ◽  
Dagna Wleklińska
Keyword(s):  
Credit Rating ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Credit Rating Agency ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Spatial Panel Data Models ◽  
The World ◽  
Spatial Panel Data ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The paper concerns the impact of announcements published by rating agencies on the government bond yield in selected countries of the world. Ratings assigned to debt securities on account of the issuer’s financial standing are an important determinant of their yield. Factors that affect the rate of return of a given traded debt, in addition to idiosyncratic factors, i.e. those related to the issuer’s economy, and global factors, also include the ratings of connected countries. Moreover, empirical studies carried out in this area prove that the relationship is asymmetrical. This allows us to suppose that favourable information concerning the improvement of government bond ratings is not reflected in the decrease in their yield. The aim of the paper is the analysis of interactions between the yields of 10‑year government bonds issued by selected economies. A subject that is of particular interest is the evaluation of the impact of positive and negative changes in credit rating assessments made by international agencies on the yield of bonds issued by other economies than the country concerned in the assessment. The spatial scope of the analysis concerns 10‑year government bonds issued by 40 countries in the period of 2008-2017. In the study, dynamic spatial models for pooled time series and cross‑sectional data and dynamic spatial panel data models were used.

scholarly journals ON THE REFLECTION OF CORONOMICS IN ECONOMIC SCIENCE AND ECONOMIC POLICY

2020 ◽  
pp. 15-24
Author(s):  
VLADIMER PAPAVA
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Economic Incentives ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Economic Science ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
The Government

The paper discusses the economic issues of the COVID-19 pandemic. The resulting coronomic crisis is not a typical economic crisis since the coronomic crisis was not formed in the economy itself but is the result of the inability of medicine to solve the pandemic problem. The coronomic crisis is, by its very nature, an atypical economic crisis and is fundamentally different from other atypical economic crises that took place in the XX century. The coronomic crisis put the issue of the “crisis of globalization” on the agenda. The coronomic crisis exposed the weaknesses of globalization. Overcoming the COVID-19 pandemic is possible exclusively at the global level. The paper shows that the current process of de-globalization is “forced” by its nature and it will definitely be replaced by a qualitatively renewed process of globalization. Economic recovery from the corona crisis will be most successful only on the basis of the adherence to a free trade regime. In economic science, the problem of government intervention in the economy, especially during the pandemic and the post-pandemic period, is still relevant. The corona crisis has clearly confirmed the inability of inflation targeting to achieve macroeconomic stability. The coronomic crisis requires two approaches to economic policy. In particular, we mean an anti-crisis economic policy and a post-crisis economic policy. Economic incentives provided by the government to businesses contribute to the zombieing of the economy which will be one of the most difficult problems of the post-crisis period. The coronomic crisis made the issue of the economic security of each individual country even more urgent. The problem of ensuring food security is equally important. The economic policy of the post-crisis period must necessarily include measures to ensure a country’s food security. Since the possibility of a repetition of a pandemic in the future is similar to the current one, the problems of coronomics should remain in the field of study of economists for many years.

scholarly journals The Long-Run Determinants of Indian Government Bond Yields

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 168-205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tanweer Akram ◽  
Anupam Das
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Indian Government ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Key Driver ◽  
The Government

This paper investigates the long-term determinants of the nominal yields of Indian government bonds (IGBs). It examines whether John Maynard Keynes’ supposition that the short-term interest rate is the key driver of the long-term government bond yield holds over the long run, after controlling for key economic factors. It also appraises if the government fiscal variable has an adverse effect on government bond yields over the long run. The models estimated in this paper show that in India the short-term interest rate is the key driver of the long-term government bond yield over the long run. However, the government debt ratio does not have any discernible adverse effect on IGB yields over the long run. These findings will help policy makers to (i) use information on the current trend of the short-term interest rate and other key macro variables to form their long-term outlook about IGB yields, and (ii) understand the policy implications of the government's fiscal stance.

ASSESSING THE RISKS TO THE JAPANESE GOVERNMENT BOND MARKET

2013 ◽  
Vol 04 (01) ◽  
pp. 1350002 ◽  
Author(s):  
WAIKEI RAPHAEL LAM ◽  
KIICHI TOKUOKA
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Japanese Government ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Market Capacity ◽  
Debt Dynamics ◽  
The Government

Despite the rise in public debt, Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields have remained low and stable, supported by steady inflows from household and corporate sectors, high domestic ownership of JGBs, and safe-haven flows in light of ongoing European debt crisis. Nonetheless, the market capacity to absorb new government debt will likely decline over time as the population ages, posing risks for the JGB market. This paper examines the key risks of the JGB market, including a decline of private sector savings and potential spillovers from global financial distress, which could push up the government bond yields. A sharp rise in interest rate could pose challenges on public debt dynamics and financial stability in Japan. In that regard, more ambitious fiscal reforms to reduce public debt will help limit these risks.

German shift on austerity would risk 'wrong' lessons

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Trade Surplus ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Black Spots ◽  
Angela Merkel ◽  
Deficit Financing ◽  
The Government

Significance Chancellor Angela Merkel faces a rising tide of euro-area members in favour of a policy shift away from austerity and possibly towards more favourable debt deals for euro-area black spots. Adding to the pressure for change, her own voters may prefer a slower pace of debt reduction: German government debt has already been falling as a percentage of GDP -- from over 80% in 2010 to under 77% at the end of 2014 -- and debt is starting to fall in absolute terms as well. The government has delivered enough stabilisation (ie, austerity) and growth to tame the 2009-10 debt surge and maintain its AAA credit rating, but is now over-achieving in terms of its own tough targets because the greater-than-expected fall in debt interest costs is pushing the budget into surplus. Some modest spending adjustments look likely to curb this windfall surplus, yet many will argue that more could be done to re-energise the sluggish economy -- and boost the euro-area. Impacts The plummeting euro will provoke another rise in German exports (already near 50% of GDP) and tensions over Germany's bulging trade surplus. While a fiscal stimulus and/or higher wage payments could address these tensions and raise imports, there is no sign of such action. Germany's critics are gathering support to end austerity, to the point of ignoring the risks of deficit financing and reneging on debts. Ultra-low German bond yields, encouraged by the prospective supply fall, are dragging down euro-area yields, delivering wider benefits.

scholarly journals Inflationary Impact of Funding Options for Budget Deficits in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
pp. 41-51
Author(s):  
Apinran Martins ◽  
Ogiji Patrick ◽  
Laniyan Chioma ◽  
Usman Nuruddeen
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Optimal Choice ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Government Deficits ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the inflationary impact of the various financing options for the federal government budget deficit which has accumulated overtime. Using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methodology and quarterly data over the period 2000Q1 to 2017Q2, the study found significant relationship between inflation and the current financing options of the Government. Overall, the result of our ARDL model affirm that the impact of fiscal spending in Nigeria on inflation is captured more in the short-run since none of the variables is significant in the long-run. In addition, the use of Banking System Financing to fund government deficits has better potentials as the optimal choice because its impact on inflation is insignificant. Federal Government Bonds as a tool for financing budget deficits is also considered an optimal choice because though it causes inflation to rise by the second quarter, but its impact on inflation is expected to fizzle out in the long-run. Ways and Means Advances on the other hand, was shown to have the highest inflationary impact and as such, its use as a tool for financing government deficit should be discouraged. We, therefore, recommend a couple of appropriate policy options for financing budget deficits in Nigeria namely monetary financing and the issuance of federal government bonds. On the policy side, more efficient public expenditure management. Capital market, co-financing arrangements with pension funds and issuance of project-tied bonds, would be beneficial.

scholarly journals The impact of ESG rating on corporate bond yields

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 474-488
Author(s):  
Balázs Kotró ◽  
Martin Márkus
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
Time Horizon ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Corporate Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Yield Curves ◽  
Social Governance ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Rating Category

This paper is to investigate whether markets assess corporate bonds riskier if their issuers have lower ESG (Environmental Social Governance) scores. For the study we used the corporate yield curves of Refinitiv further segmented by credit rating. The added risk of the ESG factor was measured in the time horizon of 2015 to 2020. It has turned out that in the USA in the group of the best debtor companies by Moody’s investors expected companies with the lowest ESG scores to provide a 35 basis point higher risk premium compared to their counterparts with the highest ESG scores. This statement is also valid for the E, S and G-rating separately. In line with another trend, the riskier your credit rating category, the lower is the risk premium caused by the lack of responsible management.

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