Comparative Analysis of Obstetric Hemorrhage Risk Prediction Tools

Author(s):  
Francis M. Hacker ◽  
Jaclyn M. Phillips ◽  
Lara S. Lemon ◽  
Hyagriv N. Simhan

Objective Hemorrhage risk prediction tools were developed in response to rising rates of obstetric hemorrhage (OBH). The California Maternal Quality Care Collaborative (CMQCC) risk prediction tool classifies patients as low, medium, and high risk for OBH based on individual risk factors. At our institution, Magee-Womens Hospital (MWH), a unique OBH risk prediction tool was derived from the CMQCC tool that differs through its use of weighted risk factors and distinctive laboratory value cutoffs. Our objective is to compare this enhanced institution-specific tool to the CMQCC tool. Study Design This study was a retrospective cohort analysis of delivery admissions from a single health care network. Admission OBH risk scores were assigned to each patient using both the MWH and CMQCC scores. Cohen's kappa estimated agreement. Scoring systems and maternal outcomes were compared using chi-square test. Composite morbidity included transfusion, hysterectomy, uterine artery embolization, and intensive care unit admission. Results A total of 21,843 delivery admissions were included. A moderate association was observed between scoring systems (kappa 0.41, p < 0.001). The CMQCC tool categorized 16,184 (74%) patients as low risk, 4,664 (21%) as medium risk, and 995 (5%) as high risk. The MWH tool categorized 13,137 (60%) patients as low risk, 8,113 (37%) as medium risk, and 593 (3%) as high risk. The MWH score recategorized CMQCC low-risk patients to a higher stratum 26% of the time. CMQCC high-risk patients were recategorized to a lower stratum 82% of the time. Both the MWH and CMQCC tools were able to differentiate OBH-related morbidity across risk strata. The MWH tool independently predicted risk of composite morbidity within each stratum of the CMQCC score. Conclusion Both the MWH and CMQCC tools independently distinguish risk of composite morbidity. Adding weighted values to individual risk factors further discriminates risk of morbidity. This suggests it may be reasonable to adapt the CMQCC tool to reflect institutional populations and resources. Key Points

2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (30_suppl) ◽  
pp. 262-262
Author(s):  
Jordan Bernens ◽  
Kara Hartman ◽  
Brendan F. Curley ◽  
Sijin Wen ◽  
Jame Abraham ◽  
...  

262 Background: Patients receiving chemotherapy are at risk for febrile neutropenia following treatment. The American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) and National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) recommend screening patients for risk of febrile neutropenia and risk stratification based on likelihood of febrile neutropenia events. Prophylactic growth factors (G-CSF) should be in patients receiving high-risk regimens or intermediate-risk regimens with individual risk factors. The impact of electronic medical record system (EMR) implementation on compliance with G-CSF support guidelines has not been studied. Methods: At West Virginia University/Mary Babb Randolph Cancer Center we conducted an IRB approved retrospective chart review of cancer patients receiving chemotherapy from January 1, 2007 to August 1, 2008 (pre-EMR) and January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2011 (post-EMR). We reviewed the chemotherapy regimens and patient risk factors for developing febrile neutropenia, and determined if the G-CSF usage was consistent with guideline recommendations. Results: Compliance with prophylactic G-CSF guidelines was 75.6% in the post-EMR arm, compared to 67.5% in the pre-EMR arm (p=0.041, ch-square). The post EMR data of 1,042 new chemotherapy initiations showed: (see Table). The appropriateness of usage in high and low risk patients were the most compliant, as G-CSF orders were built into chemotherapy plans of high risk regimens and omitted from low risk regimens. Conclusions: Appropriate prophylactic G-CSF usage can be improved when orders are integrated into standard chemotherapy order sets in an EMR. An area of further improvement would include automatic identification of individual risk factors by the EMR. [Table: see text]


2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 296-300 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lasantha Ratnayake ◽  
Amy Harris ◽  
Doreen Ko ◽  
Linda Hawtin

Background: Incidence of carbapenemase-producing enterobacteriaceae (CPE) in the UK is increasing. In 2013, Public Health England (PHE) published a toolkit to control spread of CPE within healthcare settings. Aim: To assess compliance to hospital CPE policy (adapted from PHE) in the identification, isolation and screening of suspected CPE patients. Methods: Admission booklets of 150 patients were evaluated to see whether the relevant section had been completed to identify high-risk CPE patients. Where necessary, patients were interviewed or their GPs were contacted to assess their CPE risk. Additionally, 28 patients screened for CPE were audited to assess compliance to screening and isolation. Findings: Only 23 patients out of 147 (15.6%) were risk assessed on admission. Risk status of 27 (18.4%) patients could not be assessed due to lack of data. Fifteen patients out of 28 (54%) screened for CPE were identified and isolated on admission. Ten out of 19 patients (53%) had three screens 48 h apart. Discussion: This audit highlights difficulties in screening based on individual risk factors as the majority of patients were not screened on admission and documentation on isolation and screening was poor. More needs to be done to raise awareness of the requirements for routine assessment, isolation and screening.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rossella Murtas ◽  
Nuccia Morici ◽  
Chiara Cogliati ◽  
Massimo Puoti ◽  
Barbara Omazzi ◽  
...  

BACKGROUND The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has generated a huge strain on the health care system worldwide. The metropolitan area of Milan, Italy was one of the most hit area in the world. OBJECTIVE Robust risk prediction models are needed to stratify individual patient risk for public health purposes METHODS Two predictive algorithms were implemented in order to foresee the probability of being a COVID-19 patient and the risk of being hospitalized. The predictive model for COVID-19 positivity was developed in 61.956 symptomatic patients, whereas the model for COVID-19 hospitalization was developed in 36.834 COVID-19 positive patients. Exposures considered were age, gender, comorbidities and symptoms associated with COVID-19 (vomiting, cough, fever, diarrhoea, myalgia, asthenia, headache, anosmia, ageusia, and dyspnoea). RESULTS The predictive models showed a good fit for predicting COVID-19 disease [AUC 72.6% (95% CI 71.6%-73.5%)] and hospitalization [AUC 79.8% (95% CI 78.6%-81%)]. Using these results, 118,804 patients with COVID-19 from October 25 to December 11, 2020 were stratified into low, medium and high risk for COVID-19 severity. Among the overall population, 67.030 (56%) were classified as low-risk, 43.886 (37%) medium-risk, and 7.888 (7%) high-risk, with 89% of the overall population being assisted at home, 9% hospitalized, and 2% dead. Among those assisted at home, most people (60%) were classified as low risk, whereas only 4% were classified at high risk. According to ordinal logistic regression, the OR of being hospitalised or dead was 5.0 (95% CI 4.6-5.4) in high-risk patients and 2.7 (95% CI 2.6-2.9) in medium-risk patients, as compared to low-risk patients. CONCLUSIONS A simple monitoring system, based on primary care datasets with linkage to COVID-19 testing results, hospital admissions data and death records may assist in proper planning and allocation of patients and resources during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.


Author(s):  
Halley Ruppel ◽  
Vincent X. Liu ◽  
Neeru R. Gupta ◽  
Lauren Soltesz ◽  
Gabriel J. Escobar

Abstract Objective This study aimed to evaluate the performance of the California Maternal Quality Care Collaborative (CMQCC) admission risk criteria for stratifying postpartum hemorrhage risk in a large obstetrics population. Study Design Using detailed electronic health record data, we classified 261,964 delivery hospitalizations from Kaiser Permanente Northern California hospitals between 2010 and 2017 into high-, medium-, and low-risk groups based on CMQCC criteria. We used logistic regression to assess associations between CMQCC risk groups and postpartum hemorrhage using two different postpartum hemorrhage definitions, standard postpartum hemorrhage (blood loss ≥1,000 mL) and severe postpartum hemorrhage (based on transfusion, laboratory, and blood loss data). Among the low-risk group, we also evaluated associations between additional present-on-admission factors and severe postpartum hemorrhage. Results Using the standard definition, postpartum hemorrhage occurred in approximately 5% of hospitalizations (n = 13,479), with a rate of 3.2, 10.5, and 10.2% in the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups. Severe postpartum hemorrhage occurred in 824 hospitalizations (0.3%), with a rate of 0.2, 0.5, and 1.3% in the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups. For either definition, the odds of postpartum hemorrhage were significantly higher in medium- and high-risk groups compared with the low-risk group. Over 40% of postpartum hemorrhages occurred in hospitalizations that were classified as low risk. Among the low-risk group, risk factors including hypertension and diabetes were associated with higher odds of severe postpartum hemorrhage. Conclusion We found that the CMQCC admission risk assessment criteria stratified women by increasing rates of severe postpartum hemorrhage in our sample, which enables early preparation for many postpartum hemorrhages. However, the CMQCC risk factors missed a substantial proportion of postpartum hemorrhages. Efforts to improve postpartum hemorrhage risk assessment using present-on-admission risk factors should consider inclusion of other nonobstetrical factors.


Blood ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 120 (21) ◽  
pp. 3070-3070
Author(s):  
Michael Henry ◽  
Rong Guo ◽  
Mala Parthasarathy ◽  
John Lopez ◽  
Patrick Stiff

Abstract Abstract 3070 Life-threatening cardiac events following allogeneic bone marrow transplants (BMT) are not uncommon at 5–12.5% of patients. While BMT programs perform screening EKGs and ejection fraction measurements, solid organ transplant centers follow a risk stratification screening algorithm to assess for coronary artery disease (CAD) which includes stress tests and as indicated, angiography in those with 2 or more risk factors. It is currently unknown whether this algorithm should be applied in the BMT setting. Methods: We performed a retrospective review of 296 patients who underwent allogeneic BMT at Loyola University Medical Center 2007–2011, to assess cardiac events using the solid organ transplant advanced screening criteria: age over 60 or over 40 with peripheral vascular disease or diabetes and then divided patients into low risk (one CV risk factor) and high risk groups (greater than one CV risk factor). Risk factors included age, hypertension, diabetes, smoking, family history of CAD, and obesity according to the Framingham risk assessment score for CAD. Cardiac events during the first year post-transplant were recorded including CHF, myocardial infarction (MI), and symptomatic arrhythmias. One hundred day and 1-year Kaplan-Meier survival for high and low risk patients were determined and curves compared by log-rank tests. A multivariate analysis of the various prognostic factors was performed using the Cox regression model. Results: Of the 296 total allografts, 116 patients (39%) fit the solid organ transplant criteria for advanced screening; 62% were male (n = 72) and the mean age was 60.6 (range 40–72). Graft source was evenly distributed between siblings (42%), unrelated (39%) and cord blood (28%). Acute myeloid leukemia was the most common indication for BMT at 40%, followed by MDS (21%), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (16%), and CLL (10%). Of the 116, 21 were considered low risk (1 risk factor), while 95 were high risk (2+ risk factors). Low risk and high risk groups did not differ in disease type (p = 0.43), graft source (p = 0.81), or graft type (p = 0.54). Surprisingly, both high and low risk patients had a similar incidence of cardiac events of 36% and 48%, respectively. This correlated to comparable 100-day and 1 year survival rates. To determine the importance of cardiac complications on outcome and whether there were other risk factors for complications we analyzed those with a complication. Forty-four cardiac events occurred in the first year after transplant in 38 (33%) patients. Cardiac events included arrhythmias (n = 33), new onset CHF (n = 6), and MI (n = 5). Median time to event was 16 days post-transplant. Symptomatic arrhythmias included atrial fibrillation (n = 27, 82%), supraventricular tachycardia (n = 5, 15%) and sustained ventricular tachycardia (n =1, 3%). Median age for patients with cardiac events was 62.7 years, compared to 59.6 for patients who experienced no cardiac events (hazard ratio estimate: 1.076; p = 0.02). As compared to patients with no post-transplant cardiac events, both the 100 day and 1 year survival rates of patients with cardiac events were lower with one year survival of 21% vs. 63% (p < 0.0001). Evaluating risk factors, 3 were significant: donor source with MUD donors the highest hazard (p = 0.04); age, with cardiac events occurring at a rate twice as high in patients greater than age 60 (n = 27, 36.5% vs. n = 6, 19.4%), and with all five cases of myocardial infarction and 5/6 new CHF diagnoses occurring in patients aged 60 or greater; and patients with a history of atrial fibrillation demonstrated a higher probability of developing a cardiac event post-transplant (p = 0.02). Conclusions: In this analysis, we saw a much higher incidence of post-BMT cardiac events (33%) than previously reported, although we focused only on at risk patients using the solid organ screening algorithm (pts > 40 with significant risk factors or all pts > 60). As mortality rates at 100 day and 1 year are higher for patients who suffer a post-BMT cardiac event, and only graft source, age and prior atrial fibrillation marked patients at a very high risk, this data indicates that it is appropriate to investigate prospectively the solid organ transplant algorithm in all allogeneic BMT patients > age 40, with low cardiac risk or any patient > 60 with stress tests and as indicated, cardiac catheterization. Whether this will decrease events and thereby improve survival remains to be determined by prospective studies. Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.


2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (7) ◽  

Introduction: Patients undergoing hemodialysis are at increased risk of stroke. However, less known about the impact of some of the stroke risk factors, and the value of stroke risk scores in determining the risk in those patients. Our main goal. To assess the risk factors for stroke in hemodialysis patients and the use of the new CHA2DS2-VASc score for stroke assessment. Methods: Single center, retrospective cohort study of 336 patients undergoing hemodialysis from June 24, 2018, to September 6, 2018, was recruited. Baseline demographics, clinical, and laboratory data were collected. We calculated the CHA2 DS2 -VASc score for stroke assessment in all patients and categorized them into high, moderate and low risk patients according to CHA2 DS2 - VASc score and subcategorized them to two groups atrial fibrillation (AFib) and Non- Atrial fibrillation (Non AFib) patients. Results: 336 patients were included in our study; the majority of patients were at high risk with a CHA2 DS2 -VASc Score mean of 2.9± 1.5, although history of stroke was observed only in 15 patients (4.46%). According to CHA2 DS2 - VASc score, 280 patients were at high risk, 172 (51.19%) were high-risk patients on treatment (anticoagulant or antiplatelet) and 108(32.14%) patients were high risk patients not on treatment 48 were at moderate risk (14.28%) and 8 were at low risk (2.38 %). Patients were divided into subgroups as non-AFib and AFib. In non-AFib patients 320 (95.23%), high-risk patients 103 (32.18%) were not treated; high-risk patients with treatment are 162 (50.62%), moderate patients were 47 (14.68%), 8(2.5%) was in low risk. AFib patients were 16 with a mean CHA2 DS2 -VASc score of 4.4±1.1. Patients with AFib were all at high risk except 1 was at moderate risk (6.25%). There were 11 (68.75%) patients on treatment and 5 (31.25%) patients not on treatment. The risk factors for stroke that were statistically significant in increasing score risk for all patients were: age > 65 (95% CI, -2.04– -1.29; p = 0.000), being female (95% CI, -1.36– -0.68; p = 0.000) hypertension (95% CI, -2.59– -1.37; p = 0.000), diabetes (95% CI, -2.10– -1.50; p = 0.000), CVD (95% CI, -2.07– -1.24; p=0.000), history of stroke or TIA (95% CI, -3.70– -2.03; p = 0.000), CHF or LVEF (95% CI, -2.28– - 0.91; p = 0.000). Conclusions: The risk of stroke in hemodialysis patients is significant according to the use of CHA2 DS2 -VASc score in Non-AFib hemodialysis patients shows supportive evidence of increased risk of stroke in those patients, which suggest the importance of close monitoring of patients with stroke risk factors by the nephrologist and the stroke team which will lead to the initiation of early prophylaxis in those patients.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adnan I Qureshi

Background and Purpose There is increasing recognition of a relatively high burden of pre-existing cardiovascular disease in Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID 19) infected patients. We determined the burden of pre-existing cardiovascular disease in persons residing in United States (US) who are at risk for severe COVID-19 infection. Methods Age (60 years or greater), presence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, mellitus, hypertension, and/or malignancy were used to identify persons at risk for admission to intensive care unit, or invasive ventilation, or death with COVID-19 infection. Persons were classified as low risk (no risk factors), moderate risk (1 risk factor), and high risk (two or more risk factors present) using nationally representative sample of US adults from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2017 and 2018 survey. Results Among a total of 5856 participants, 2386 (40.7%) were considered low risk, 1325 (22.6%) moderate risk, and 2145 persons (36.6%) as high risk for severe COVID-19 infection. The proportion of patients who had pre-existing stroke increased from 0.6% to 10.5% in low risk patients to high risk patients (odds ratio [OR]19.9, 95% confidence interval [CI]11.6-34.3). The proportion of who had pre-existing myocardial infection (MI) increased from 0.4% to 10.4% in low risk patients to high risk patients (OR 30.6, 95% CI 15.7-59.8). Conclusions A large proportion of persons in US who are at risk for developing severe COVID 19 infection are expected to have pre-existing cardiovascular disease. Further studies need to identify whether targeted strategies towards cardiovascular diseases can reduce the mortality in COVID-19 infected patients.


2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (7_suppl) ◽  
pp. 308-308
Author(s):  
Eugene J. Pietzak ◽  
S. Bruce Malkowicz ◽  
Thomas J. Guzzo

308 Background: Despite level one evidence demonstrating improved survival with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC), studies suggest that many eligible patients with muscle invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) never receive it prior to radical cystectomy (RC). Our objective was to determine if the absence of known pre-operative risk factors can indeed stratify for low risk of extravesical disease with RC alone. Methods: We identified consecutive NAC-naive patients with clinical stage cT2N0M0 urothelial type bladder cancer treated with RC at our center. cT2 patients with either hydronephrosis, transurethral resection (TUR) specimens containing lymphovascular invasion (LVI), or mixed variant histology were grouped as high risk. Clinicopathologic and survival outcomes were compared to cT2 patients without these adverse features, who were grouped as low risk. Results: Of 251 cT2 patients, 119 (47.4%) were high risk [LVI=31, hydronephrosis=69, mixed histology=54; ≥2 risk factors=70]. High and low risk cohorts did not differ in age, gender, race, BMI, smoking, co-morbidities, prior intravescial therapy, or treatment delay. At time of RC, high risk patients more often had lymph node metastasis (38.6% v. 26.7% p=0.04) & tumor upstaging to pT3/4 (53.7% v. 40.2 p<0.001), with significantly less achieving pT0 (2.5% v. 12.1% p=0.004). There was no difference in adjuvant chemotherapy rates (26.4% v. 25% p=0.8). Two and five year cancer-specific survival (CSS) was 84.8% and 62.3% for low risk patients, but only 59.5% and 42% for high risk patients (p=0.008), with competing risk analysis revealing worse bladder cancer specific mortality (BCSM) (sub HR=2.08 [95%CI=1.36 – 3.2]). Odds Ratio for BCSM was 1.29 (95%CI=0.68-2.5) if one risk factor was present, & 3.2 (95%CI=1.7-5.8) if two risk factors. Only hydronephrosis (2.2 [95%CI=1.2-4.2]) and mixed histology (2.4 [95%CI=1.2-4.8]) were independently associated with worse BCSM on multi-variable analysis. Conclusions: Good cancer control is provided by RC alone to many patients with cT2 MIBC without adverse risk factors, particularly if hydronephrosis & mixed variant histology is absent. However, tumor upstaging and lymph node involvement is not trivial even in low risk patients, which must be included in informed decision making on NAC.


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