The Impact Assessment of Climate Change on the Long-Term Runoff on the Han River in South Korea Based on RCP Climate Change Scenarios

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seung Jin Hong ◽  
Se Jin Jung ◽  
Byung Sik Kim ◽  
Hung Soo Kim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Han River ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Climate change impact assessment as function of model inaccuracy

2007 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 2875-2899
Author(s):  
P. Droogers ◽  
A. van Loon ◽  
W. Immerzeel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Model Errors ◽  
Climate Change Impact Assessment ◽  
Scenario Model ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Numerical simulation models are frequently applied to assess the impact of climate change on hydrology and agriculture. A common hypothesis is that unavoidable model errors are reflected in the reference situation as well as in the climate change situation so that by comparing reference to scenario model errors will level out. For a polder in The Netherlands an innovative procedure has been introduced, referred to as the Model-Scenario-Ratio (MSR), to express model inaccuracy on climate change impact assessment. MSR values close to 1, indicating that impact assessment is mainly a function of the scenario itself rather than of the quality of the model, were found for most indicators evaluated. More extreme climate change scenarios and indicators based on threshold values showed lower MSR values, indicating that model accuracy is an important component of the climate change impact assessment. It was concluded that the MSR approach can be applied easily and will lead to more robust impact assessment analyses.

The impact of climate change on road and building infrastructure: a four-country study

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 382-396 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Chinowsky ◽  
Amy Schweikert ◽  
Gordon Hughes ◽  
Carolyn S. Hayles ◽  
Niko Strzepek ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Built Environment ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to examine the potential impact of climate change on the built environment in four Northern Asian countries. The impact on roads and buildings infrastructure in China, Japan, South Korea and Mongolia were considered during the decades 2030, 2050 and 2090. Design/methodology/approach – The study is based on a stressor-response approach, where using the analysis of 17 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approved Global Circulation Model (GCM) scenarios, projections for impacts from flooding events, precipitation amounts and temperature were determined. The cost of the impacts, based on both maintenance and new construction considerations, were then determined. “Adapt” and “No Adapt” scenarios were incorporated to predict potential costs in each era. Findings – Mongolia is vulnerable under the majority of scenarios and faces the greatest opportunity cost in terms of potential loss to enhancing the road stock. China is also vulnerable, but the extent of this vulnerability varies widely based on the climate scenarios. Japan is primarily vulnerable to road stock impacts, although some scenarios indicate buildings vulnerability. South Korea appears to have the least vulnerability but could still face $1 billion annual costs from climate change impacts. Practical implications – Results indicate the need for proactive policy planning to avoid costly impacts later in the century. Originality/value – The study illustrates the diverse affects that may occur under climate change scenarios and the potential benefit gained from understanding and planning for the projected climate impacts on the built environment.

scholarly journals Evaluating Nature-Based Solution for Flood Reduction in Spercheios River Basin under Current and Future Climate Conditions

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 3885
Author(s):  
Christos Spyrou ◽  
Michael Loupis ◽  
Νikos Charizopoulos ◽  
Ilektra Apostolidou ◽  
Angeliki Mentzafou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Maximum Velocity ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The Impact

Nature-based solutions (NBS) are being deployed around the world in order to address hydrometeorological hazards, including flooding, droughts, landslides and many others. The term refers to techniques inspired, supported and copied from nature, avoiding large constructions and other harmful interventions. In this work the development and evaluation of an NBS applied to the Spercheios river basin in Central Greece is presented. The river is susceptible to heavy rainfall and bank overflow, therefore the intervention selected is a natural water retention measure that aims to moderate the impact of flooding and drought in the area. After the deployment of the NBS, we examine the benefits under current and future climate conditions, using various climate change scenarios. Even though the NBS deployed is small compared to the rest of the river, its presence leads to a decrease in the maximum depth of flooding, maximum velocity and smaller flooded areas. Regarding the subsurface/groundwater storage under current and future climate change and weather conditions, the NBS construction seems to favor long-term groundwater recharge.

scholarly journals Differential long-term effects of climate change and management on stocks and distribution of soil organic carbon in productive grasslands

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 1055-1096 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. M. G. De Bruijn ◽  
P. Calanca ◽  
C. Ammann ◽  
J. Fuhrer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Organic C ◽  
Soil C ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Soc Stocks

Abstract. We studied the impact of climate change on the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in productive grassland systems undergoing two types of management, an intensive type with frequent harvests and fertilizer applications and an extensive system where fertilization is omitted and harvests are fewer. The Oensingen Grassland Model was explicitly developed for this study. It was calibrated using measurements taken in a recently established permanent sward in Central Switzerland, and run to simulate SOC dynamics over 2001–2100 under three climate change scenarios assuming different elements of IPCC A2 emission scenarios. We found that: (1) management intensity dominates SOC until approximately 20 yr after grassland establishment. Differences in SOC between climate scenarios become significant after 20 yr and climate effects dominate SOC dynamics from approximately 50 yr after establishment, (2) carbon supplied through manure contributes about 60% to measured organic C increase in fertilized grassland. (3) Soil C accumulates particularly in the top 10 cm soil until 5 yr after establishment. In the long-term, C accumulation takes place in the top 15 cm of the soil profile, while C content decreases below this depth. The transitional depth between gains and losses of C mainly depends on the vertical distribution of root senescence and root biomass. We discuss the importance of previous land use on carbon sequestration potentials that are much lower at the Oensingen site under ley-arable rotation and with much higher SOC stocks than most soils under arable crops. We further discuss the importance of biomass senescence rates, because C balance estimations indicate that these may differ considerably between the two management systems.

scholarly journals Differential long-term effects of climate change and management on stocks and distribution of soil organic carbon in productive grasslands

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 1997-2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. M. G. De Bruijn ◽  
P. Calanca ◽  
C. Ammann ◽  
J. Fuhrer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Organic C ◽  
Soil C ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Soc Stocks

Abstract. We studied the impact of climate change on the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in productive grassland systems undergoing two types of management, an intensive type with frequent harvests and fertilizer applications and an extensive system without fertilization and fewer harvests. Simulations were conducted with a dedicated newly developed model, the Oensingen Grassland Model. It was calibrated using measurements taken in a recently established permanent sward in Central Switzerland, and run to simulate SOC dynamics over 2001–2100 under various climate change scenarios assuming different elements of IPCC A2 emission scenarios. We found that: (1) management intensity dominates SOC until approximately 20 years after grassland establishment. Differences in SOC between climate scenarios become significant after 20 years and climate effects dominate SOC dynamics from approximately 50 years after establishment. (2) Carbon supplied through manure contributes about 60 % to measured organic C increase in fertilized grassland. (3) Soil C accumulates particularly in the top 10 cm of the soil until 5 years after establishment. In the long-term, C accumulation takes place in the top 15 cm of the soil profile, while C content decreases below this depth. The transitional depth between gains and losses of C mainly depends on the vertical distribution of root senescence and root biomass. We discuss the importance of previous land use on carbon sequestration potentials that are much lower at the Oensingen site under ley-arable rotation with much higher SOC stocks than most soils under arable crops. We further discuss the importance of biomass senescence rates, because C balance estimations indicate that these may differ considerably between the two management systems.

scholarly journals Quantifying the impact of model inaccuracy in climate change impact assessment studies using an agro-hydrological model

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 669-678 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Droogers ◽  
A. Van Loon ◽  
W. W. Immerzeel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Model Errors ◽  
Climate Change Impact Assessment ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Reference Situation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Numerical simulation models are frequently applied to assess the impact of climate change on hydrology and agriculture. A common hypothesis is that unavoidable model errors are reflected in the reference situation as well as in the climate change situation so that by comparing reference to scenario model errors will level out. For a polder in The Netherlands an innovative procedure has been introduced, referred to as the Model-Scenario-Ratio (MSR), to express model inaccuracy on climate change impact assessment studies based on simulation models comparing a reference situation to a climate change situation. The SWAP (Soil Water Atmosphere Plant) model was used for the case study and the reference situation was compared to two climate change scenarios. MSR values close to 1, indicating that impact assessment is mainly a function of the scenario itself rather than of the quality of the model, were found for most indicators evaluated. A climate change scenario with enhanced drought conditions and indicators based on threshold values showed lower MSR values, indicating that model accuracy is an important component of the climate change impact assessment. It was concluded that the MSR approach can be applied easily and will lead to more robust impact assessment analyses.

Impact assessment of common bean availability in Brazil under climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Vol 191 ◽  
pp. 103174
Author(s):  
Luís A.S. Antolin ◽  
Alexandre B. Heinemann ◽  
Fábio R. Marin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Common Bean ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

scholarly journals Assessing the long-term effectiveness of Nature-Based Solutions under different climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
pp. 148515
Author(s):  
Eulalia Gómez Martín ◽  
María Máñez Costa ◽  
Sabine Egerer ◽  
Uwe Schneider
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

scholarly journals Urban Geometry Optimization to Mitigate Climate Change: Towards Energy-Efficient Buildings

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Hatem Mahmoud ◽  
Ayman Ragab
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Thermal Efficiency ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Building Blocks ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Urban Geometry ◽  
Outdoor Spaces ◽  
The Impact

The density of building blocks and insufficient greenery in cities tend to contribute dramatically not only to increased heat stress in the built environment but also to higher energy demand for cooling. Urban planners should, therefore, be conscious of their responsibility to reduce energy usage of buildings along with improving outdoor thermal efficiency. This study examines the impact of numerous proposed urban geometry cases on the thermal efficiency of outer spaces as well as the energy consumption of adjacent buildings under various climate change scenarios as representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate projections for New Aswan city in 2035. The investigation was performed at one of the most underutilized outdoor spaces on the new campus of Aswan University in New Aswan city. The potential reduction of heat stress was investigated so as to improve the thermal comfort of the investigated outdoor spaces, as well as energy savings based on the proposed strategies. Accordingly, the most appropriate scenario to be adopted to cope with the inevitable climate change was identified. The proposed scenarios were divided into four categories of parameters. In the first category, shelters partially (25–50% and 75%) covering the streets were used. The second category proposed dividing the space parallel or perpendicular to the existing buildings. The third category was a hybrid scenario of the first and second categories. In the fourth category, a green cover of grass was added. A coupling evaluation was applied utilizing ENVI-met v4.2 and Design-Builder v4.5 to measure and improve the thermal efficiency of the outdoor space and reduce the cooling energy. The results demonstrated that it is better to cover outdoor spaces with 50% of the overall area than transform outdoor spaces into canyons.

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