The impact of climate change on road and building infrastructure: a four-country study

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 382-396 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Chinowsky ◽  
Amy Schweikert ◽  
Gordon Hughes ◽  
Carolyn S. Hayles ◽  
Niko Strzepek ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Built Environment ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to examine the potential impact of climate change on the built environment in four Northern Asian countries. The impact on roads and buildings infrastructure in China, Japan, South Korea and Mongolia were considered during the decades 2030, 2050 and 2090. Design/methodology/approach – The study is based on a stressor-response approach, where using the analysis of 17 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approved Global Circulation Model (GCM) scenarios, projections for impacts from flooding events, precipitation amounts and temperature were determined. The cost of the impacts, based on both maintenance and new construction considerations, were then determined. “Adapt” and “No Adapt” scenarios were incorporated to predict potential costs in each era. Findings – Mongolia is vulnerable under the majority of scenarios and faces the greatest opportunity cost in terms of potential loss to enhancing the road stock. China is also vulnerable, but the extent of this vulnerability varies widely based on the climate scenarios. Japan is primarily vulnerable to road stock impacts, although some scenarios indicate buildings vulnerability. South Korea appears to have the least vulnerability but could still face $1 billion annual costs from climate change impacts. Practical implications – Results indicate the need for proactive policy planning to avoid costly impacts later in the century. Originality/value – The study illustrates the diverse affects that may occur under climate change scenarios and the potential benefit gained from understanding and planning for the projected climate impacts on the built environment.

scholarly journals Investigating the Impact of Climate Change on Future Runoff of River Satluj

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 10-21
Author(s):  
Narayan P Gautam ◽  
Manohar Arora ◽  
N.K. Goel ◽  
A.R.S. Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Climatic Condition ◽  
The Impact

Climate change has been emerging as one of the challenges in the global environment. Information of predicted climatic changes in basin scale is highly useful to know the future climatic condition in the basin that ultimately becomes helpful to carry out planning and management of the water resources available in the basin. Climatic scenario is a plausible and often simplified representation of the future climate, based on an internally consistent set of climatological relationships that has been constructed for explicit use in investigating the potential consequences of anthropogenic climate change. This study based on statistical downscaling, provide good example focusing on predicting the rainfall and runoff patterns, using the coarse general circulation model (GCM) outputs. The outputs of the GCMs are utilized to study the impact of climate change on water resources. The present study has been taken up to identify the climate change scenarios for Satluj river basin, India.Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology, Vol. 8(1) p.10-21

Impact of climate change on streamflow and water quality in the upper Dong Nai river basin, Vietnam

2018 ◽  
pp. 70-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Le Viet Thang ◽  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Ho Long Phi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Sediment Load ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Nutrient Load ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

In this study, we investigated the impact of climate change on streamflow and water quality (TSS, T-N, and T-P loads) in the upper Dong Nai River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model is a reasonable tool for simulating streamflow and water quality for this basin. Based on the well-calibrated SWAT model, the responses of streamflow, sediment load, and nutrient load to climate change were simulated. Climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were developed from five GCM simulations (CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-ESM-MR) using the delta change method. The results indicated that climate in the study area would become warmer and wetter in the future. Climate change leads to increases in streamflow, sediment load, T-N load, and T-P load. Besides that, the impacts of climate change would exacerbate serious problems related to water shortage in the dry season and soil erosion and degradation in the wet season. In addition, it is indicated that changes in sediment yield and nutrient load due to climate change are larger than the corresponding changes in streamflow.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Mekong River basin: a case study of the Nam Ou basin, Lao PDR

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Shrestha ◽  
M. S. Babel ◽  
S. Maskey ◽  
A. van Griensven ◽  
S. Uhlenbrook ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sediment Yield ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Sediment Flux ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Nam Ou basin located in northern Laos. Future climate (temperature and precipitation) from four general circulation models (GCMs) that are found to perform well in the Mekong region and a regional circulation model (PRECIS) are downscaled using a delta change approach. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to assess future changes in sediment flux attributable to climate change. Results indicate up to 3.0 °C shift in seasonal temperature and 27% (decrease) to 41% (increase) in seasonal precipitation. The largest increase in temperature is observed in the dry season while the largest change in precipitation is observed in the wet season. In general, temperature shows increasing trends but changes in precipitation are not unidirectional and vary depending on the greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES), climate models, prediction period and season. The simulation results show that the changes in annual stream discharges are likely to range from a 17% decrease to 66% increase in the future, which will lead to predicted changes in annual sediment yield ranging from a 27% decrease to about 160% increase. Changes in intra-annual (monthly) discharge as well as sediment yield are even greater (−62 to 105% in discharge and −88 to 243% in sediment yield). A higher discharge and sediment flux are expected during the wet seasons, although the highest relative changes are observed during the dry months. The results indicate high uncertainties in the direction and magnitude of changes of discharge as well as sediment yields due to climate change. As the projected climate change impact on sediment varies remarkably between the different climate models, the uncertainty should be taken into account in both sediment management and climate change adaptation.

Emerging climate changes and the risks to the operation of building assets in the UK

2016 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdullah Alzahrani ◽  
Halim Boussabaine ◽  
Ali Nasser Alzaed
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Climate Change Risks ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to report results from a survey on emerging climate changes and the risks to the operation of building assets in the UK. The property sector is facing major challenges as a result of projected climate change scenarios. Predictions concerning future climate change and the subsequent impact on building operations are still subject to a high degree of uncertainty. However, it is important that building stockholders consider a range of possible future risks that may influence the operation of their assets. Design/methodology/approach – The literature review and questionnaire are used to elicit and assess the likelihood of occurrence of climate change risks impacting building operations. The survey was carried out among building stockowners and professionals in the UK. Statistical methods were used to rank and compare the findings. Findings – The majority of the respondents strongly agreed that the list of risks that were elicited from the literature will have an impact on their building assets within a 0-5 years’ time horizon. It was found that the professionals were most concerned about higher energy prices and an increase in operation costs in general; they were least concerned about an electricity blackout. Research limitations/implications – This paper is limited to the UK, and regional variations are not explored. Nevertheless, the buildings’ operation risk study provides a starting point for further investigations into the emerging risks from climate change, and their impact on the operation of building stock. Future work could investigate direct mapping between climate risks and the financial value of properties. Originality/value – Findings of this paper can help professionals and building stockowners improve their understanding of climate change risks and the impact on their assets. This paper could also help these individuals to formulate appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies.

scholarly journals Projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of Ross River virus: methodological challenges and research needs

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (10) ◽  
pp. 2013-2023 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. YU ◽  
P. DALE ◽  
L. TURNER ◽  
S. TONG
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Ross River Virus ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Development Scenarios ◽  
Methodological Challenges ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYRoss River virus (RRV) is the most common vector-borne disease in Australia. It is vitally important to make appropriate projections on the future spread of RRV under various climate change scenarios because such information is essential for policy-makers to identify vulnerable communities and to better manage RRV epidemics. However, there are many methodological challenges in projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of RRV disease. This study critically examined the methodological issues and proposed possible solutions. A literature search was conducted between January and October 2012, using the electronic databases Medline, Web of Science and PubMed. Nineteen relevant papers were identified. These studies demonstrate that key challenges for projecting future climate change on RRV disease include: (1) a complex ecology (e.g. many mosquito vectors, immunity, heterogeneous in both time and space); (2) unclear interactions between social and environmental factors; and (3) uncertainty in climate change modelling and socioeconomic development scenarios. Future risk assessments of climate change will ultimately need to better understand the ecology of RRV disease and to integrate climate change scenarios with local socioeconomic and environmental factors, in order to develop effective adaptation strategies to prevent or reduce RRV transmission.

The impact of climate change on cocoa production in West Africa

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 296-314 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth Ofori-Boateng ◽  
Baba Insah
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Yield Response ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Cocoa Production ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The study aimed at examining the current and future impact of climate change on cocoa production in West Africa. Design/methodology/approach – A translog production function based on crop yield response framework was used. A panel model was estimated using data drawn from cocoa-producing countries in West Africa. An in-sample simulation was used to determine the predictive power of the model. In addition, an out-sample simulation revealed the effect of future trends of temperature and precipitation on cocoa output. Findings – Temperature and precipitation play a considerable role in cocoa production in West Africa. It was established that extreme temperature adversely affected cocoa output in the sub-region. Furthermore, increasing temperature and declining precipitation trends will reduce cocoa output in the future. Practical implications – An important implication of this study is the recognition that lagging effects are the determinants of cocoa output and not coincident effects. This finds support from the agronomic point of view considering the gestation period of the cocoa crop. Originality/value – Although several studies have been carried out in this area, this study modeled and estimated the interacting effects of factors that influence cocoa production. This is closer to reality, as climatic factors and agricultural inputs combine to yield output.

Economic impacts of climate change and variability on agricultural production in the Middle East and North Africa region

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 463-472 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed Alboghdady ◽  
Salah E. El-Hendawy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change And Variability ◽  
Cent Increase ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Purpose The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of climate change and variability on agricultural production in Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) where the deleterious impacts of climate change are generally projected to be greatest. Design/methodology/approach The study used a production function model using Fixed Effect Regression (FER) analysis and then using marginal impact analysis to assess the impact of climate change and variability on agricultural production. Therefore, the study utilized panel data for the period 1961-2009 pooled from 20 countries in MENA region. Findings Results showed that 1 per cent increase in temperature during winter resulted in 1.12 per cent decrease in agricultural production. It was also observed that 1 per cent increase in temperature variability during winter and spring resulted in 0.09 and 0.14 per cent decrease in agricultural production, respectively. Results also indicated that increasing precipitation during winter and fall season and precipitation variability during winter and summer seasons had negative impact. The estimated parameters of square temperature and precipitation indicated that climate change has significant nonlinear impacts on agricultural production in MENA region. Originality/value Despite there are many studies on the impact of climate change on agricultural production, there is a lack of publications to address the economic impact of both climate change and variability on agricultural production in MENA region. Thus, these results are more comprehensive and more informative to policymakers than the results from field trials.

scholarly journals Future Changes in Drought Characteristics under Extreme Climate Change over South Korea

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joo-Heon Lee ◽  
Hyun-Han Kwon ◽  
Ho-Won Jang ◽  
Tae-Woong Kim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Korea ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Significance Test ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Future

This study attempts to analyze several drought features in South Korea from various perspectives using a three-month standard precipitation index. In particular, this study aims to evaluate changes in spatial distribution in terms of frequency and severity of droughts in the future due to climate change, using IPCC (intergovernmental panel on climate change) GCM (general circulation model) simulations. First, the Mann-Kendall method was adopted to identify drought trends at the five major watersheds. The simulated temporal evolution of SPI (standardized precipitation index) during the winter showed significant drying trends in most parts of the watersheds, while the simulated SPI during the spring showed a somewhat different feature in the GCMs. Second, this study explored the low-frequency patterns associated with drought by comparing global wavelet power, with significance test. Future spectra decreased in the fractional variance attributed to a reduction in the interannual band from 2 to 8 years. Finally, the changes in the frequency and the severity under climate change were evaluated through the drought spell analyses. Overall features of drought conditions in the future showed a tendency to increase (about 6%) in frequency and severity of droughts during the dry season (i.e., from October to May) under climate change.

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