Wind power prediction system for wind farm based on auto regressive statistical model and physical model

The application of wind power prediction system (WPPS) contributes to security economic dispatching of power grid and stable operation of wind farm. This paper established short-term prediction model based on BP neural network and ultrashort-term prediction model based on improved time-series algorithm according to Xichang Wind Farm Phase I Project. A new probability model using two consecutive power points before prediction time was built to improve the traditional time-series algorithm. The system framework was designed. C# Language and SQL Server 2008 were taken to develop the system on the Microsoft .net platform. The WPPS uses distributed architecture, realizing seamless connection with the energy management system (EMS) of Xichang dispatching department.

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Long-Term Wind Power Prediction Based on Rough Set

Applied Mechanics and Materials ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.329.411 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 329 ◽

pp. 411-415 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Shuang Gao ◽

Lei Dong ◽

Xiao Zhong Liao ◽

Yang Gao

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Wind Power ◽

Rough Set ◽

Wind Farm ◽

Rough Set Theory ◽

Prediction Method ◽

Key Factors ◽

Power Prediction ◽

Wind Power Prediction

In long-term wind power prediction, dealing with the relevant factors correctly is the key point to improve the prediction accuracy. This paper presents a prediction method with rough set analysis. The key factors that affect the wind power prediction are identified by rough set theory. The chaotic characteristics of wind speed time series are analyzed. The rough set neural network prediction model is built by adding the key factors as the additional inputs to the chaotic neural network model. Data of Fujin wind farm are used for this paper to verify the new method of long-term wind power prediction. The results show that rough set method is a useful tool in long-term prediction of wind power.

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Gaussian models for probabilistic and deterministic Wind Power Prediction: Wind farm and regional

International Journal of Hydrogen Energy ◽

10.1016/j.ijhydene.2020.07.081 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 45 (51) ◽

pp. 27779-27791

Author(s):

Ali Ahmadpour ◽

Saeid Gholami Farkoush

Keyword(s):

Wind Power ◽

Wind Farm ◽

Power Prediction ◽

Gaussian Models ◽

Wind Power Prediction

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Forecast of Short-Term Wind Power Based on GA Optimized Elman Neural Network

Applied Mechanics and Materials ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.536-537.470 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 536-537 ◽

pp. 470-475

Author(s):

Ye Chen

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Power Systems ◽

Wind Power ◽

Wind Farm ◽

Wind Farms ◽

Power Prediction ◽

Elman Neural Network ◽

Wind Power Prediction ◽

Forecasting Method ◽

Safety And Stability

Due to the features of being fluctuant, intermittent, and stochastic of wind power, interconnection of large capacity wind farms with the power grid will bring about impact on the safety and stability of power systems. Based on the real-time wind power data, wind power prediction model using Elman neural network is proposed. At the same time in order to overcome the disadvantages of the Elman neural network for easily fall into local minimum and slow convergence speed, this paper put forward using the GA algorithm to optimize the weight and threshold of Elman neural network. Through the analysis of the measured data of one wind farm, shows that the forecasting method can improve the accuracy of the wind power prediction, so it has great practical value.

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A comparative study of optimal hybrid methods for wind power prediction in wind farm of Alberta, Canada

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews ◽

10.1016/j.rser.2013.06.022 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 27 ◽

pp. 20-29 ◽

Cited By ~ 20

Author(s):

Nooshin Bigdeli ◽

Karim Afshar ◽

Amin Shokri Gazafroudi ◽

Mostafa Yousefi Ramandi

Keyword(s):

Comparative Study ◽

Wind Power ◽

Wind Farm ◽

Hybrid Methods ◽

Power Prediction ◽

Wind Power Prediction

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Wind Power Prediction Based on Grey Theory and Simulation Study

Applied Mechanics and Materials ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.448-453.1835 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 448-453 ◽

pp. 1835-1839

Author(s):

Zhong Hua Cai ◽

Ting Ting An ◽

Hong Tu Zhang

Keyword(s):

Wind Power ◽

Simulation Study ◽

Wind Farm ◽

Grey Theory ◽

Grey Prediction ◽

Power Prediction ◽

Wind Power Integration ◽

Proposed Model ◽

Wind Power Prediction ◽

New Research

Due to the significant instability, anti-peak-regulation and intermittency of wind power, wind power integration needs an accurate prediction technique to be a basis. At present, the difficulty of wind power integration has resulted in a large number of wind curtailment phenomena and wasted a lot of renewable energy. Grey prediction model has many advantages such as requiring little historical data and the simple model, with high prediction accuracy and convenient calculation, and without regard to regularities of distribution, etc. This paper puts forward the method for short-term wind power prediction using gray model GM (1, 1) and carries out simulation study and empirical analysis using the data from a wind farm of Jilin province, which shows the science and operability of the proposed model. It provides a new research method for the wind power prediction.

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Development of Wind Power Prediction Models for Pawan Danavi Wind Farm in Sri Lanka

Mathematical Problems in Engineering ◽

10.1155/2021/4893713 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 2021 ◽

pp. 1-13

Author(s):

Piyal Ekanayake ◽

Amila T. Peiris ◽

J. M. Jeevani W. Jayasinghe ◽

Upaka Rathnayake

Keyword(s):

Wind Speed ◽

Sri Lanka ◽

Ambient Temperature ◽

Wind Power ◽

Correlation Coefficient ◽

Wind Farm ◽

Prediction Models ◽

Power Prediction ◽

Independent Variables ◽

Wind Power Prediction

This paper presents the development of wind power prediction models for a wind farm in Sri Lanka using an artificial neural network (ANN), multiple linear regression (MLR), and power regression (PR) techniques. Power generation data over five years since 2015 were used as the dependent variable in modeling, while the corresponding wind speed and ambient temperature values were used as independent variables. Variation of these three variables over time was analyzed to identify monthly, seasonal, and annual patterns. The monthly patterns are coherent with the seasonal monsoon winds exhibiting little annual variation, in the absence of extreme meteorological changes during the period of 2015–2020. The correlation within each pair of variables was also examined by applying statistical techniques, which are presented in terms of Pearson’s and Spearman’s correlation coefficients. The impact of unit increase (or decrease) in the wind speed and ambient temperature around their mean values on the output power was also quantified. Finally, the accuracy of each model was evaluated by means of the correlation coefficient, root mean squared error (RMSE), bias, and the Nash number. All the models demonstrated acceptable accuracy with correlation coefficient and Nash number closer to 1, very low RMSE, and bias closer to 0. Although the ANN-based model is the most accurate due to advanced features in machine learning, it does not express the generated power output in terms of the independent variables. In contrast, the regression-based statistical models of MLR and PR are advantageous, providing an insight into modeling the power generated by the other wind farms in the same region, which are influenced by similar climate conditions.

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M2GSNet: Multi-Modal Multi-Task Graph Spatiotemporal Network for Ultra-Short-Term Wind Farm Cluster Power Prediction

Applied Sciences ◽

10.3390/app10217915 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (21) ◽

pp. 7915

Author(s):

Hang Fan ◽

Xuemin Zhang ◽

Shengwei Mei ◽

Kunjin Chen ◽

Xinyang Chen

Keyword(s):

Wind Power ◽

Large Scale ◽

Wind Farm ◽

Weather Prediction ◽

Wind Farms ◽

Task Graph ◽

Probabilistic Prediction ◽

Power Prediction ◽

Short Term ◽

Wind Power Prediction

Ultra-short-term wind power prediction is of great importance for the integration of renewable energy. It is the foundation of probabilistic prediction and even a slight increase in the prediction accuracy can exert significant improvement for the safe and economic operation of power systems. However, due to the complex spatiotemporal relationship and the intrinsic characteristic of nonlinear, randomness and intermittence, the prediction of regional wind farm clusters and each wind farm’s power is still a challenge. In this paper, a framework based on graph neural network and numerical weather prediction (NWP) is proposed for the ultra-short-term wind power prediction. First, the adjacent matrix of wind farms, which are regarded as the vertexes of a graph, is defined based on geographical distance. Second, two graph neural networks are designed to extract the spatiotemporal feature of historical wind power and NWP information separately. Then, these features are fused based on multi-modal learning. Third, to enhance the efficiency of prediction method, a multi-task learning method is adopted to extract the common feature of the regional wind farm cluster and it can output the prediction of each wind farm at the same time. The cases of a wind farm cluster located in Northeast China verified that the accuracy of a regional wind farm cluster power prediction is improved, and the time consumption increases slowly when the number of wind farms grows. The results indicate that this method has great potential to be used in large-scale wind farm clusters.

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Forecasting Models for Wind Power Using Extreme-Point Symmetric Mode Decomposition and Artificial Neural Networks

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su11030650 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (3) ◽

pp. 650 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Jianguo Zhou ◽

Xiaolei Xu ◽

Xuejing Huo ◽

Yushuo Li

Keyword(s):

Wind Speed ◽

Wind Power ◽

Wind Farm ◽

Meteorological Data ◽

Frequency Component ◽

High Frequency Component ◽

Power Prediction ◽

Short Term ◽

Combined Model ◽

Wind Power Prediction

The randomness and volatility of wind power poses a serious threat to the stability, continuity, and adjustability of the power system when it is connected to the grid. Accurate short-term wind power prediction methods have important practical value for achieving high-precision prediction of wind farm power generation and safety and economic dispatch. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel combined model to improve the accuracy of short-term wind power prediction, which involves grey correlation degree analysis, ESMD (extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition), sample entropy (SampEn) theory, and a hybrid prediction model based on three prediction algorithms. The meteorological data at different times and altitudes is firstly selected as the influencing factors of wind power. Then, the wind power sub-series obtained by the ESMD method is reconstructed into three wind power characteristic components, namely PHC (high frequency component of wind power), PMC (medium frequency component of wind power), and PLC (low frequency component of wind power). Similarly, the wind speed sub-series obtained by the ESMD method is reconstructed into three wind speed characteristic components, called SHC (high frequency component of wind speed), SMC (medium frequency component of wind speed), and SLC (low frequency component of wind speed). Subsequently, the Bat-BP model, Adaboost-ENN model, and ENN (Elman neural network), which have high forecasting accuracy, are selected to predict PHC, PMC, and PLC, respectively. Finally, the prediction results of three characteristic components are aggregated into the final prediction values of the original wind power series. To evaluate the prediction performance of the proposed combined model, 15-min wind power and meteorological data from the wind farm in China are adopted as case studies. The prediction results show that the combined model shows better performance in short-term wind power prediction compared with other models.

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