Demographics in Demographic—Economic Models: A Note on the Basic Activity—Commodity Framework

1988 ◽  
Vol 20 (11) ◽  
pp. 1531-1536 ◽  
Author(s):  
M Hynes ◽  
R W Jackson
Keyword(s):  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Economic Models ◽  
Economic Modelling ◽  
Household Type ◽  
Current State ◽  
Basic Activity ◽  
Subsequent Literature ◽  
New Jobs

The significant contributions of demographic—economic modelling to the area of impact assessment are recognised, but it is argued that much greater attention must be focused on the demographic components of these models. In particular, distinctions between household types must be treated more adequately, and mechanisms for changes in household type must be articulated and refined. The inadequacy of the current state of demographic—economic models in this regard is demonstrated by a reconsideration of the early basic formulation of Madden and Batey, upon which much of the subsequent literature draws. The simple failure of this model to allocate new jobs to unemployed nonheads of households illustrates the need for increased focus on the demographic aspect of demo—economic models.

Does the Current State of Environmental Impact Assessment in Armenia Pose a Challenge for the Future?

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (02) ◽  
pp. 1950004
Author(s):  
Sophya Geghamyan ◽  
Katarina Pavlickova
Keyword(s):  
Soviet Union ◽  
Environmental Impact ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Environmental Impact Assessment ◽  
Former Soviet Union ◽  
Public Involvement ◽  
Legal Framework ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Current State

Many post-Soviet countries are still improving their Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) systems, and Armenia is no exception. In recent years, approximation to and harmonisation with the laws of the European Union has seen Armenia increasingly adopt and apply EU regulations and directives, and this process was supported by adoption of the new law on EIA and Expertise in 2014. The main objectives of this study are to review and analyse the current state of the Armenian EIA system and to assess its legal framework. We applied a method divided into two parts: review and analysis of the legislative aspects of the EIA system in Armenia and the circulation of a survey-questionnaire to EIA experts to establish current practices. The findings of this research provided positive and negative factors which can both be used to improve the assessment system in Armenia. While the most significant EIA strength combines the existence of a systematic law and public involvement in this process, the law has weaknesses in its monitoring, informative and quality control provisions. Moreover, public participation has many weaknesses in practice, including the definition of stakeholders and the lack of guidelines and manuals which challenges expert action. Finally, this paper has explored the major positives and negatives of the Armenian EIA system in practice, and we consider that this should help other Former Soviet Union (FSU) countries define and combat the challenges of their EIA systems.

scholarly journals A Model of an Economic Efficiency Evaluation System of a Maritime Container Supply Chain

2019 ◽  
Vol 82 ◽  
pp. 151-160
Author(s):  
Jędrzej Charłampowicz
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Economic Efficiency ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Evaluation System ◽  
Global Trade ◽  
Economic Modelling ◽  
Efficiency Evaluation ◽  
Current State ◽  
Critical Literature

Containerization was one of the catalysts of the globalization processes that took place in the 20th century. Nowadays container shipping is one of the main transport modes in the global economy. The ability to connect distant production centres with consumption centres largely influenced the acceleration of the global trade. Due to the globalization and characteristics of the global trade it is almost impossible to perceive global supply chains without maritime transport. Although the efficiency of the supply chain is a crucial factor of the economic perspective of supply chain management, not much space is devoted to that issue in the literature. The main purpose of this paper is to design and develop a model of an economic efficiency evaluation system of maritime container supply chains. Some general research methods, such as a critical literature review and methods of logical reasoning were used to achieve this goal. Additionally some economic modelling methods were adapted. Thepresented model isdeveloping the current state-of-the-art knowledge in the field of economic efficiency evaluation of supply chains. Unfortunately this model could not be confronted with real business data due to research limitations.

OP11 Structural Uncertainty In Economic Modelling For Smoking Cessation

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (S1) ◽  
pp. 6-7
Author(s):  
Becky Pennington ◽  
Alex Filby ◽  
Matthew Taylor ◽  
Lesley Owen
Keyword(s):  
Smoking Cessation ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Recurrent Events ◽  
Smoking Status ◽  
Discrete Event ◽  
Economic Models ◽  
Economic Modelling ◽  
Model Structure ◽  
Cohort Model ◽  
The Impact

INTRODUCTION:Guidance for developing economic models recommend that model structure is carefully considered, and assumptions varied in sensitivity analysis (1). Models in smoking cessation have typically used cohort-level approaches, although recently discrete event simulations (DESs) have been developed (2). DESs allow additional flexibility such as modelling changing risk over time, and recurrent events. Our aim was to explore the impact of varying model structure and assumptions on the cost-effectiveness of smoking cessation programs.METHODS:We built a cohort state-transition model which related mortality to smoking status and considered the prevalence (based on smoking status) of five comorbidities associated with smoking, each of which has an associated cost and quality of life decrement. We additionally built a patient-level DES, using the Discretely Integrated Condition Event framework (3). The DES used the same data as the cohort model, except considering incidence for comorbidities rather than prevalence. We considered a population of smokers aged 16 years old and an intervention costing GBP827 on which 27 percent of people quit, compared with no treatment. We produced results using the two models for comparable scenarios, and ran additional scenarios considering different assumptions.RESULTS:In the cohort model, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for intervention versus no treatment was GBP4,000/quality-adjusted life year (QALY). In the DES, modelling mortality linked to smoker status produced an ICER of GBP1,000/QALY and modelling mortality linked to comorbidities produced an ICER of GBP6,000/QALY. In the DES with mortality linked to comorbidities, varying the relative risk of comorbidities with time since quitting gave an ICER of GBP3,000/QALY. Including relapse increased the ICER to GBP21,000/QALY.CONCLUSIONS:The ICER for the smoking cessation program changes when model assumptions are varied, although the choice of DES versus cohort model appears to make a relatively small difference. Inclusion of relapse substantially changes the ICER, demonstrating the importance of long-term effects in economic models.

scholarly journals A plea for realistic assumptions in economic modelling

2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 417
Author(s):  
Leonardo Ivarola
Keyword(s):  
External Validity ◽  
Economic Models ◽  
The Other ◽  
Target System ◽  
Economic Modelling ◽  
Black Swan ◽  
Invariant Factors

The use of unrealistic assumptions in Economics is usually defended not only for pragmatic reasons, but also because of the intrinsic difficulties in determining the degree of realism of assumptions. Additionally, the criterion used for evaluating economic models is associated with their ability to provide accurate predictions. This mode of thought involves –at least implicitly– a commitment to the existence of unvarying invariant factors or regularities. Contrary to this, the present paper presents a critique to the use of invariant knowledge in economics. One reason for this analysis lies in the fact that economic phenomena are not compatible with the logic of invariance, but with the logic of "possibility trees" or "open-ended results". The other reason is that the use of invariant knowledge may entail both external validity problems and negative exposures to a "black swan". Alternatively, an approach where models are understood as possible scenarios is proposed. It is argued that the realism of (substantive) assumptions is crucial here, since it helps to ascertain the degree of resemblance between the different models and the target system.

scholarly journals ЕКОНОМІКО-МАТЕМАТИЧНЕ МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ В СИСТЕМІ ЕКОНОМІЧНИХ ДОСЛІДЖЕНЬ

2019 ◽  
Vol 129 (6) ◽  
pp. 48-55
Author(s):  
Наталія Сергіївна Ручинська
Keyword(s):  
Economic Theory ◽  
Economic Models ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Economic Science ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Economic Modelling ◽  
Mathematical Economic ◽  
Mathematical Methods ◽  
Unique Identifier ◽  
Functional Changes

Contemporary realia of transformational processes in Ukraine's economy drive the need for implementation of a specific toolkit that seamlessly integrates a range of mathematical methods to solve economic problems. Mathematical economic models are increasingly becoming indispensable tools for modern theoretical and applied economics. However, the self-sufficiency of this research approach has been repeatedly questioned due to a number of organizational and institutional challenges in the economic science and education domains, as well as in the context of functional changes in the economy as a whole. The purpose of this study is to substantiate the concept of the role and significance of mathematical economic modelling within the framework of theoretical and applied economic research, along with providing insights into the role of mathematical economic modelling as a separate area of study and applied economic research viewed as a connecting link in the triad of "economic theory – economic policy – business practice". It is argued that a mathematical economic model has to be legitimized as a separate research subject (to some extent similar to the concept of a legal entity in the economy) that complies with certain requirements of economic theory and economic information. For this purpose the model should entail specific inherent characteristics including the model datasheet which is a unique identifier of a model, contributing to clear differentiation of one model from another. Alongside with the need to enhance the methodology and application of mathematical economic models, an overdue challenge is the demand for inventory of existing model park, the preparation of a comprehensive Handbook on mathematical economic modelling tools providing specific outcomes of their application which is consistent with published scholarly literature and applied studies on modelling methods and models of real objects and systems.

scholarly journals Economic Modelling of the Delay in Passing the Petroleum Industry Bill in Nigeria and Its Impact on Deep Offshore Investments and Government Take Statistics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oghenerume Ogolo ◽  
Petrus Nzerem
Keyword(s):  
Petroleum Industry ◽  
Economic Models ◽  
Economic Modelling ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Production Sharing ◽  
The Government ◽  
Petroleum Sector ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Offshore Region

Abstract The petroleum industry bill (PIB) in Nigeria aims to reform the petroleum sector of the country and increase government revenue from petroleum investments. Despite the benefits the bill offers to the country, its passage has suffered several setbacks. This research therefore studied the impact of the delay in passing the bill on deep offshore investments. Economic models were built using the fiscal terms in PIB 2009 and 1993 production sharing contract (PSC) arrangement to evaluate the impact of the bill. The model with the 1993 PSC fiscal terms was adjusted to capture the delay in passing the bill. The bill was assumed to be passed on a yearly basis for 10 years (2010 to 2019). The impact of the delay in passing the bill based on the reserve portfolio of firms in the deep offshore region of the country was also evaluated. The delay in passing the PIB reduced the government take. It was seen that for the non-passage of the bill, the government lost about $1227.2 MM. When the bill was passed in 2019, the government had been losing about $11.843 MM on a yearly basis due to the delay in passing the bill.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document