scholarly journals A plea for realistic assumptions in economic modelling

2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 417
Author(s):  
Leonardo Ivarola
Keyword(s):  
External Validity ◽  
Economic Models ◽  
The Other ◽  
Target System ◽  
Economic Modelling ◽  
Black Swan ◽  
Invariant Factors

The use of unrealistic assumptions in Economics is usually defended not only for pragmatic reasons, but also because of the intrinsic difficulties in determining the degree of realism of assumptions. Additionally, the criterion used for evaluating economic models is associated with their ability to provide accurate predictions. This mode of thought involves –at least implicitly– a commitment to the existence of unvarying invariant factors or regularities. Contrary to this, the present paper presents a critique to the use of invariant knowledge in economics. One reason for this analysis lies in the fact that economic phenomena are not compatible with the logic of invariance, but with the logic of "possibility trees" or "open-ended results". The other reason is that the use of invariant knowledge may entail both external validity problems and negative exposures to a "black swan". Alternatively, an approach where models are understood as possible scenarios is proposed. It is argued that the realism of (substantive) assumptions is crucial here, since it helps to ascertain the degree of resemblance between the different models and the target system.

Improving the External Validity of Conjoint Analysis: The Essential Role of Profile Distribution

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brandon de la Cuesta ◽  
Naoki Egami ◽  
Kosuke Imai
Keyword(s):  
Conjoint Analysis ◽  
Real World ◽  
External Validity ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
The Other ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
Actual Distribution ◽  
Open Source Software Package ◽  
Profile Distribution

Abstract Conjoint analysis has become popular among social scientists for measuring multidimensional preferences. When analyzing such experiments, researchers often focus on the average marginal component effect (AMCE), which represents the causal effect of a single profile attribute while averaging over the remaining attributes. What has been overlooked, however, is the fact that the AMCE critically relies upon the distribution of the other attributes used for the averaging. Although most experiments employ the uniform distribution, which equally weights each profile, both the actual distribution of profiles in the real world and the distribution of theoretical interest are often far from uniform. This mismatch can severely compromise the external validity of conjoint analysis. We empirically demonstrate that estimates of the AMCE can be substantially different when averaging over the target profile distribution instead of uniform. We propose new experimental designs and estimation methods that incorporate substantive knowledge about the profile distribution. We illustrate our methodology through two empirical applications, one using a real-world distribution and the other based on a counterfactual distribution motivated by a theoretical consideration. The proposed methodology is implemented through an open-source software package.

scholarly journals COVID-19: systematic learning across boundaries requires a conceptual agreement

2021 ◽  
pp. 140349482110270
Author(s):  
Knut Ole Sundnes ◽  
Geir Sverre Braut
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Knowledge Base ◽  
External Validity ◽  
Evaluation Research ◽  
The Other ◽  
Basic Knowledge ◽  
Early Publication ◽  
Number Of Publications ◽  
Short Time

The COVID-19 epidemic has revealed a shortage of basic knowledge and understanding of pandemics, especially regarding their dynamics and how to contain them. The results are a host of governments’ decrees and instructions, one replacing the other, often within the same week. It has further, in a truly short time, resulted in an overwhelming number of publications, many of them prioritising early publication over quality. This commentary addresses the concept of structured research related to disasters and how the use of endorsed guidelines will facilitate well-designed evaluation research with improved rigour and external validity, even if applied retrospectively. The outcome should be a solidified knowledge base. Further, the important role of public health efforts is to be highlighted, as their role has proved crucial during the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Education and Energy Intensity: Simple Economic Modelling and Preliminary Empirical Results

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 2625 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tiago Sequeira ◽  
Marcelo Santos
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Model ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Energy Intensity ◽  
The Other ◽  
Economic Modelling ◽  
Empirical Application ◽  
Primary Schooling ◽  
Simple Economic

The ratio of energy use to Gross Domestic Product (defined as energy intensity) is a major determinant of environmental hazard and an indicator of eco-efficiency. This paper explains why education can have an effect in reducing the energy intensity thus affecting eco-efficiency. We devise a stylized economic model with simple and widely accepted assumptions that highlights the role of education in decreasing energy intensity worldwide. In an empirical application that is robust to the features of the data, we show that primary schooling contributes to a decrease in energy intensity which has a very significant effect, even accounting for the other well-known determinants of energy intensity. Additionally, when schooling is taken into account, income is no longer a negative determinant of energy intensity.

Do Easterners and Westerners Treat Contradiction Differently?

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 45-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hugo Mercier ◽  
Jiehai Zhang ◽  
Yuping Qu ◽  
Peng Lu ◽  
Jean-Baptiste Van der Henst
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Differences ◽  
External Validity ◽  
Cross Cultural ◽  
The Other ◽  
Cross Cultural Differences ◽  
Middle Way ◽  
Points Of View ◽  
Law Of Excluded Middle ◽  
Excluded Middle ◽  
Influential Theory

Peng and Nisbett (1999) put forward an influential theory of the influence of culture on the resolution of contradiction. They suggested that Easterners deal with contradiction in a dialectical manner, trying to reconcile opposite points of view and seeking a middle-way. Westerners, by contrast, would follow the law of excluded middle, judging one side of the contradiction to be right and the other to be wrong. However, their work has already been questioned, both in terms of replicability and external validity. Here we test alternative interpretations of two of Peng and Nisbett’s experiments and conduct a new test of their theory in a third experiment. Overall, the Eastern (Chinese) and Western (French) participants behaved similarly, failing to exhibit the cross-cultural differences observed by Peng and Nisbett. Several interpretations of these failed replications and this failed new test are suggested. Together with previous failed replications, the present results raise questions about the breadth of Peng and Nisbett’s interpretation of cross-cultural differences in dealing with contradiction.

scholarly journals Mark Blaug's unrealistic crusade for realistic economics

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Uskali Mäki
Keyword(s):  
Academic Research ◽  
The Other ◽  
Economic Science ◽  
Economic Modelling ◽  
Trade Off

Mark Blaug's normative methodology of economics is an attempt to articulate certain intuitions about how economic science could be improved by making it more "realistic". I discuss two such articulations, one in terms of falsificationist principles, the other in terms of an alleged trade-off between relevance and mathematical rigour. My conclusion is that Blaug's methodology is itself unrealistic, both descriptively and normatively. His (well intended) methodological prescriptions for the improvement of economics are not based on a systematic, consistent, descriptively adequate, and normatively viable account. I suggest that Blaug's intuitions can be developed into a more realistic account by incorporating the analysis of two further topics: economic modelling and the institutions of academic research.

scholarly journals GENERAL REVIEW OF THE GENETIC AND GEOLOGICAL-ECONOMIC MODELING OF THE MINERAL DEPOSITS OF SERBIA

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (6) ◽  
pp. 38-45
Author(s):  
Radule Tosovic
Keyword(s):  
Mineral Resources ◽  
Economic Modeling ◽  
The Other ◽  
Mineral Deposits ◽  
Economic Modelling ◽  
Geological Exploration ◽  
Market Conditions ◽  
Genetic Characteristics ◽  
General Review ◽  
Geological Work

Changed marketing and economy-ambiental conditions of planning, realization and evaluation of the geological exploration, order quantitative different approach in which are integral implied geology important elements of the deposit of mineral row materials, based the genetic characteristics and marketing necessary question of economy payfull. The conditions and the way of origin the deposit, respectively genetic characteristics, directly across the geological specific of the deposits reflect on the conception and methodology of their geological exploration. On the other side, the changed market conditions, after made community political changes in Serbia, together with the transition problems, in the first plan propound the profitability of the geological work and the results of the geological explorations. In such economy-economic defined conditions of the valorization of mineral resources of Serbia, especially important role has the connected genetic and geological–economic modelling of the deposits of the mineral row materials.

scholarly journals Development of a Spatial Discount Task to Measure Impulsive Choices in Dogs

Animals ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 469
Author(s):  
Paolo Mongillo ◽  
Anna Scandurra ◽  
Carla Jade Eatherington ◽  
Biagio D’Aniello ◽  
Lieta Marinelli
Keyword(s):  
Sex Differences ◽  
External Validity ◽  
Learning Phase ◽  
The Other ◽  
Food Motivation ◽  
Training Phase ◽  
Behavioural Test

Impulsive choices reflect an individual’s tendency to prefer a smaller immediate reward over a larger delayed one. Here, we have developed a behavioural test which can be easily applied to assess impulsive choices in dogs. Dogs were trained to associate one of two equidistant locations with a larger food amount when a smaller amount was presented in the other location, then the smaller amount was placed systematically closer to the dog. Choices of the smaller amount, as a function of distance, were considered a measure of the dog’s tendency to make impulsive choices. All dogs (N = 48) passed the learning phase and completed the entire assessment in under 1 h. Choice of the smaller food amount increased as this was placed closer to the dog. Choices were independent from food motivation, past training, and speed of learning the training phase; supporting the specificity of the procedure. Females showed a higher probability of making impulsive choices, in agreement with analogue sex differences found in human and rodent studies, and supporting the external validity of our assessment. Overall, the findings support the practical applicability and represent a first indication of the validity of this method, making it suitable for investigations into impulsivity in dogs.

scholarly journals The fake food buffet – a new method in nutrition behaviour research

2011 ◽  
Vol 107 (10) ◽  
pp. 1553-1560 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Bucher ◽  
K. van der Horst ◽  
M. Siegrist
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Method ◽  
Experimental Research ◽  
External Validity ◽  
Food Choice ◽  
Energy Content ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
The Other ◽  
Experimental Assessment ◽  
Food Items ◽  
Portion Sizes

Experimental research in behavioural nutrition is often limited by practical applicability. In the present study, we assess the reproducibility and validity of a new experimental method using food replicas. A total of fifty-seven people were invited on two separate occasions with an interval of 2 weeks to serve themselves a meal from a fake food buffet (FFB) containing replica carrots, beans, pasta and chicken. The external validity of the FFB was assessed in a second study by comparing meals served from replica foods (beans, pasta, chicken) with meals served from a corresponding real food buffet (RFB). For the second study, forty-eight participants were invited on two separate occasions; first to serve themselves a meal from the FFB or an RFB and 2 weeks later from the other buffet. The amounts of food items served and (theoretical) energy content were compared. Correlation coefficients between the amounts of fake foods served were 0·77 (95 % CI 0·68, 0·86) for chicken, 0·79 (95 % CI 0·68, 0·87) for carrots, 0·81 (95 % CI 0·69, 0·89) for beans and 0·89 (95 % CI 0·82, 0·93) for pasta. For the FFB meal and the RFB meal, the correlations ranged between 0·76 (95 % CI 0·73, 0·91) for chicken and 0·87 (95 % CI 0·77, 0·92) for beans. The theoretical energy of the fake meal was 132 kJ (32 kcal) lower compared to the energy of the real meal. Results suggest that the FFB can be a valuable tool for the experimental assessment of relative effects of environmental influences on portion sizes and food choice under well-controlled conditions.

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