A multivariate analysis of biophysical factors and forest fires in Spain, 1991 - 2005

2012 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 498 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felipe Verdú ◽  
Javier Salas ◽  
Cristina Vega-García

The main goal of this study was to explain the relationship between forest fires and different climatic, topographic and vegetation factors, establishing explanatory models from multivariate analysis. The study area comprised peninsular Spain. Two dependent variables were considered: probability of burning and fire size class, from a forest-fire map derived from visual analysis of satellite images from 1991 to 2005 (3337 fires greater than 25 ha). Logistic regression, discriminant analysis and regression trees were used to analyse the probability of burning. The models showed a significant relationship with land cover and slope, where the classification achieved an agreement of ~66%, and this was very similar for the three statistical methods used. Discriminant analysis and regression trees were used to model fire size class. These models appeared more related to ecozones and climatic variables (winter precipitation and mean summer temperature). In this case, the best classification results were obtained in the category of very large fires (>5000 ha), with an agreement above 80%. Regression trees achieved better results for fire size class models.

1987 ◽  
Vol 17 (10) ◽  
pp. 1207-1212 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin E. Eberhart ◽  
Paul M. Woodard

Fire size and shape, number and size of islands of residual vegetation, amount of edge, and distances to residual vegetation were analyzed for 69 fires that burned in Alberta between 1970 and 1983. These fires ranged in size from 21 to 17 770 ha. Distribution of residual vegetation was compared among five fire size classes. Fires in the smallest size class (20–40 ha) did not contain any islands of unburned vegetation. Percent of area within the fire perimeter that was actually disturbed decreased with increasing fire size. The number of unburned islands per 100 ha was highest for the third and fourth largest fire size classes (201–400 and 401–2000 ha). Median island area per fire, fire shape index, and edge index increased with fire size. Percentages of burned area within 100, 200, 300, 400, and 500 m of residual vegetation decreased with increasing fire size. These results indicate decreased potential for natural reforestation and increased benefits to some wildlife habitats as fire size increases.


2006 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 361 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc-André Parisien ◽  
Vernon S. Peters ◽  
Yonghe Wang ◽  
John M. Little ◽  
Erin M. Bosch ◽  
...  

The present study characterized the spatial patterns of forest fires in 10 fire-dominated ecozones of Canada by using a database of mapped fires ≥200 ha from 1980 to 1999 (n = 5533 fires). Spatial metrics were used individually to compare measures of fire size, shape (eccentricity and complexity), clustering, and geographic orientation among ecozones and were used concurrently in a multivariate analysis. In addition, a set of factors that influence the fire regime at the ecozone level – topography, climate, fuels, and anthropogenic factors – was compared with the metric outputs. We found significant differences in all spatial metrics among ecozones. The multivariate analysis showed that the Montane Cordillera ecozone, which covers most of British Columbia, had the most distinctive fires: its fires were smaller, less complex, and had a more regular distribution. The fire regime descriptors of ecozones were useful to interpret the spatial variation of some spatial metrics, such as fire size, eccentricity, and clustering, but provided little insight into the mechanisms of patterns of fire complexity, which were shown to be sensitive to data quality. Our results provide additional information about the creation of spatially heterogeneous landscapes. Furthermore, they illustrate the potential use of spatial metrics for a more detailed characterization of fire regimes and provide novel information for ecosystems-based land management.


2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 710-720 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. L. Solanas ◽  
M. R. Cussó

Multivariate Consumption Profiling (MCP) is a methodology to analyse the readings made by Intelligent Meter (IM) systems. Even in advanced water companies with well supported IM, full statistical analyses are not performed, since no efficient methods are available to deal with all the data items. Multivariate Analysis has been proposed as a convenient way to synthesise all IM information. MCP uses Factor Analysis, Cluster Analysis and Discriminant Analysis to analyse data variability by categories and levels, in a cyclical improvement process. MCP obtains a conceptual schema of a reference population on a set of classifying tables, one for each category. These tables are quantitative concepts to evaluate consumption, meter sizing, leakage and undermetering for populations and groupings and individual cases. They give structuring items to enhance “traditional” statistics. All the relevant data from each new meter reading can be matched to the classifying tables. A set of indexes is computed and thresholds are used to select those cases with the desired profiles. The paper gives an example of a MCP conceptual schema for five categories, three variables, and five levels, and obtains its classifying tables. It shows the use of case profiles to implement actions in accordance with the operative objectives.


2005 ◽  
Vol 277-279 ◽  
pp. 816-823
Author(s):  
Sang Hee Lee ◽  
Gi Hyuk Choi ◽  
Hyo Suk Lim ◽  
Joo Hee Lee ◽  
Kwon Ho Lee ◽  
...  

The great fires were detected through the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations over Northeast Asia. The large amount of smoke produced near Lake Baikal was transported to East Asia using high Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) as seen through the satellite images. The smoke pollution from the Russian forest fires would sometimes reach Korea through Mongolia and eastern China. In May 2003, a number of large fires blazed through eastern Russian, producing a thick, widespread pall of smoke over much of East Asia. This study focuses on the identification of the carbon monoxide (CO) for MOPITT released from MOPITT primarily into East Asia during the Russian Fires. In the wake of the fires, the 700hPa MOPITT retrieved CO concentrations which reached up to 250ppbv. Smoke aerosol retrieval using a separation technique was also applied to the MODIS data observed in 14-22 May 2003. Large AOT, 2.0 ~ 5.0, was observed over Korea on 20 May 2003 due to the influence of the long range transport of smoke aerosol plume from the Russian Fires.


2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 113-124
Author(s):  
Raheel Abbas ◽  
Muhammad Asghar ◽  
Rashid Saeed

The study aims to empirically testify the devolution intervention in the budgetary allocations of the primary education sector of the Punjab province. It addresses the question; whether devolution intervention has an impact on primary education policy and input indicators or not? This study is based on Content Analysis to derive a meaningful conclusion about policy interventions. The budgetary interventions are verified by Multivariate Analysis of Variance (MANOVA) and Descriptive Discriminant Analysis (DDA) to measure the impact of devolution intervention. The analysis shows that there is no mere shift in policy initiatives and budgetary allocations. However, the primary education sector is relatively better as compared to the pre-devolution period but still, a lot of interventions are required for further improvement.  


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  

Forest and wildland fires are a natural part of ecosystems worldwide, but large fires in particular can cause societal, economic and ecological disruption. Fires are an important source of greenhouse gases and black carbon that can further amplify and accelerate climate change. In recent years, large forest fires in Sweden demonstrate that the issue should also be considered in other parts of Fennoscandia. This final report of the project “Forest fires in Fennoscandia under changing climate and forest cover (IBA ForestFires)” funded by the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, synthesises current knowledge of the occurrence, monitoring, modelling and suppression of forest fires in Fennoscandia. The report also focuses on elaborating the role of forest fires as a source of black carbon (BC) emissions over the Arctic and discussing the importance of international collaboration in tackling forest fires. The report explains the factors regulating fire ignition, spread and intensity in Fennoscandian conditions. It highlights that the climate in Fennoscandia is characterised by large inter-annual variability, which is reflected in forest fire risk. Here, the majority of forest fires are caused by human activities such as careless handling of fire and ignitions related to forest harvesting. In addition to weather and climate, fuel characteristics in forests influence fire ignition, intensity and spread. In the report, long-term fire statistics are presented for Finland, Sweden and the Republic of Karelia. The statistics indicate that the amount of annually burnt forest has decreased in Fennoscandia. However, with the exception of recent large fires in Sweden, during the past 25 years the annually burnt area and number of fires have been fairly stable, which is mainly due to effective fire mitigation. Land surface models were used to investigate how climate change and forest management can influence forest fires in the future. The simulations were conducted using different regional climate models and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Simulations, extending to 2100, indicate that forest fire risk is likely to increase over the coming decades. The report also highlights that globally, forest fires are a significant source of BC in the Arctic, having adverse health effects and further amplifying climate warming. However, simulations made using an atmospheric dispersion model indicate that the impact of forest fires in Fennoscandia on the environment and air quality is relatively minor and highly seasonal. Efficient forest fire mitigation requires the development of forest fire detection tools including satellites and drones, high spatial resolution modelling of fire risk and fire spreading that account for detailed terrain and weather information. Moreover, increasing the general preparedness and operational efficiency of firefighting is highly important. Forest fires are a large challenge requiring multidisciplinary research and close cooperation between the various administrative operators, e.g. rescue services, weather services, forest organisations and forest owners is required at both the national and international level.


Author(s):  
Д.А. МЕТЛЕНКИН ◽  
Ю.Т. ПЛАТОВ ◽  
Р.А. ПЛАТОВА ◽  
А.Е. РУБЦОВ ◽  
А.М. МИХАЙЛОВА

Для идентификации кофе используют методы газовой и жидкостной хроматографии, которые дают точную и подробную информацию о его химическом составе, однако трудоемки, сложны по пробоподготовке и непригодны для оперативного мониторинга качества. Цель настоящего исследования – разработка и апробация метода идентификации кофе по ботаническому виду, географическому месту произрастания и обжарке с применением Фурье-ИК-спектроскопии и многомерного анализа. В качестве объектов исследования были образцы кофе в зернах, различающиеся по ботаническому виду (арабика/робуста), географическому месту произрастания (Азия/Америка/Африка) и обжарке (жареный/нежареный). Для разработки моделей идентификации кофе в зернах была сформирована база спектральных данных и применены методы многомерного анализа – метод главных компонент (МГК) и дискриминантный анализ (ДА). ИК-спектры образцов кофе регистрировали с помощью Фурье-ИК-спектрометра Bruker ALPHA с алмазным модулем НПВО в диапазоне 4000–400 см–1 при разрешающей способности спектрометра 2 см–1. Спектральные данные были экспортированы из встроенного программного обеспечения OPUS 7.3.5.0 в Excel. При анализе матрицы спектральных данных выявлены наиболее интенсивные полосы поглощения ИК-спектра, приписываемые наличию функциональных групп воды, липидов, полисахаридов, кофеина и хлорогеновой кислоты в кофе. При сравнении ИК-спектров образцов кофеина, декофеинизированного кофе и кофе в зернах выявлены полосы поглощения спектра, которые можно использовать для построения калибровочной модели содержания кофеина в составе кофе в зернах. По спектральным данным МГК построена многомерная модель градации образцов кофе в зависимости от ботанического вида и наличия обжарки. По матрице факторных нагрузок выявлены полосы поглощения спектра, объясняющие различия образцов по ботаническому виду и обжарке и вносящие наибольший вклад в разделение образцов кофе на группы. Методом ДА по 19 переменным – коэффициентам поглощения на волновых числах спектра разработана система классификационных функций градации образцов кофе по географическому месту произрастания. Доказано, что сочетание Фурье-ИК-спектроскопии с методами многомерного анализа можно использовать как быстрый и неразрушающий инструмент для идентификации кофе в зернах. Gas and liquid chromatography methods are used to identify coffee. They provide accurate and detailed information about its chemical composition; however they are time-consuming, complex in sample preparation and unsuitable for operational quality monitoring. The purpose of this study is to develop and test a method for identifying coffee by botanical species, geographical place of growth and roasting using FTIR-spectroscopy and multivariate analysis. Samples of coffee beans were selected as objects of research, differing in botanical type (Arabica/Robusta), geographical place of growth (Asia/America/Africa) and roasting (roasted/not roasted). To develop models for the identification of grain coffee, a spectral database was formed and the methods of multivariate analysis were applied: principal components analysis (PCA), discriminant analysis. The IR-spectra of coffee samples were recorded using a Bruker ALPHA FTIR-spectrometer with a diamond module in the range of 4000–400 cm–1 with a resolution of the spectrometer of 2 cm–1. Spectral data were exported from the OPUS 7.3.5.0 embedded software to Excel. During analysis the matrix of spectral data, the most intense absorption bands of the IR-spectrum were revealed, attributed to the presence of functional groups of water, lipids, polysaccharides, caffeine and chlorogenic acid in grain coffee. By comparison the IR spectra of the samples: caffeine, decaffeinated coffee and grain coffee, absorption bands of the spectrum were revealed, which can be used to build a calibration model of the caffeine content in the composition of coffee beans. Using PCA based on the spectral data, a multivariate model of the gradation of coffee by botanical type and depending on the roast was build. According to the matrix of factor loadings, absorption bands of the spectrum were revealed, explaining the differences between the samples in botanical type and roasting and making the greatest contribution to the division of coffee samples into groups. By the method of discriminant analysis using 19 variables – absorption coefficients at the wave numbers of the spectrum – a system of classification functions for the gradation of grain coffee samples according to the geographical place of growth has been developed. It is proved that the combination of FTIR-spectroscopy with multivariate analysis methods can be used as a fast and non-destructive tool for identifying coffee beans.


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