Modelling evacuation decision-making in the 2016 Chimney Tops 2 fire in Gatlinburg, TN

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (12) ◽  
pp. 1120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erica D. Kuligowski ◽  
Emily H. Walpole ◽  
Ruggiero Lovreglio ◽  
Sarah McCaffrey
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Perception ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Decision Model ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Protective Action ◽  
Model Risk ◽  
Protective Action Decision Model ◽  
Online Sampling ◽  
Wildfire Evacuation

As wildfires occurring at the wildland–urban interface (WUI) continue to become more severe, there is an increasing need to understand human behaviour in these situations, and evacuation decision-making in particular. To contribute to this understanding, an online survey (using both mail and online sampling methods) was disseminated to households impacted by the 2016 Chimney Tops 2 fire in Tennessee. The survey instrument measured pre-event variables such as awareness of fire risks and previous experience with evacuations as well as the types of warnings and fire cues received during the event, with a focus on factors known to impact evacuation decisions and risk perception. Using linear and logistic regression analyses, it was found that fire cues and receiving warnings from a trusted source influenced risk perceptions leading up to an evacuation decision. In line with the Protective Action Decision Model, risk perception also highly influenced evacuation decisions, along with other variables, i.e. gender and prior preparation actions. Results from this work provide support for findings from previous wildfire evacuation research as well as produce some novel findings, along with several methodological recommendations, which will be further explored.

scholarly journals Determinant Factors in Personal Decision-Making to Adopt COVID-19 Prevention Measures in Chile

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (15) ◽  
pp. 8131
Author(s):  
Karina Fernanda Gonzalez ◽  
Maria Teresa Bull ◽  
Sebastian Muñoz-Herrera ◽  
Luis Felipe Robledo
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Model ◽  
Protective Action ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Protective Measures ◽  
Protective Action Decision Model ◽  
Exploratory Survey ◽  
Relevant Variables ◽  
Personal Decision ◽  
Action Decision

The pandemic has challenged countries to develop stringent measures to reduce infections and keep the population healthy. However, the greatest challenge is understanding the process of adopting self-care measures by individuals in different countries. In this research, we sought to understand the behavior of individuals who take self-protective action. We selected the risk homeostasis approach to identify relevant variables associated with the risk of contagion and the Protective Action Decision Model to understand protective decision-making in the pandemic. Subsequently, we conducted an exploratory survey to identify whether the same factors, as indicated in the literature, impact Chile’s adoption of prevention measures. The variables gender, age, and trust in authority behave similarly to those found in the literature. However, socioeconomic level, education, and media do not impact the protection behaviors adopted to avoid contagion. Furthermore, the application of the Protective Action Decision Model is adequate to understand the protective measures in the case of a pandemic. Finally, women have a higher risk perception and adopt more protective measures, and in contrast, young people between 18 and 30 years of age are the least concerned about COVID-19 infection.

scholarly journals Heat adaptation measures in private households: an application and adaptation of the protective action decision model

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabrina Katharina Beckmann ◽  
Michael Hiete ◽  
Michael Schneider ◽  
Christoph Beck
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Decision Model ◽  
Protective Action ◽  
Hierarchical Regression ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Heat Adaptation ◽  
Private Households ◽  
Protective Action Decision Model ◽  
Heat Risk ◽  
Action Decision

AbstractExtreme heatwaves will occur more frequently and with higher intensity in future. Their consequences for human health can be fatal if adaptation measures will not be taken. This study analyses factors related to heat adaptation measures in private households in Germany. During the summer months of 2019, indoor temperatures were measured in over 500 private households in the City of Augsburg, Germany, accompanied by a survey to find out about heat perception and adaptation measures. Hypotheses deducted from the Protective Action Decision Model were tested using one-way ANOVAs, regression analysis and in the end a multiple hierarchical regression model. The results of the hypotheses tested imply an influence of knowledge and heat risk perception of heat adaptation behaviour and an influence of age on heat risk perception. The results of the regression model show an influence of the efficacy-related attribute, of age, indoor temperature, subjective heat stress and health implications to heat adaptation behaviour. In the end, this study proposes adjustments to the PADM according to the results of the hierarchical regression analysis.

A Systematic Review of the Factors Affecting the Cyclone Evacuation Decision Process in Bangladesh

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 742-753 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Nasif Ahsan ◽  
◽  
Kuniyoshi Takeuchi ◽  
Karina Vink ◽  
Miho Ohara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Content Analysis ◽  
Risk Perception ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Cultural Context ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Cultural Issues ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Warning Messages

Researchers are investigating a broad spectrum of factors affecting positively and/or negatively the evacuation decision-making process occurring after people at risk receive cyclone warnings and advisories. Previous studies suggest that early warnings themselves do not propagate evacuation processes to be investigated but, rather, that human risk perceptions do so. This in turn encourages the sociopsychological dimensions of risk perception to be evaluated, which must be done within a country’s own cultural context. In applying content analysis here, we review the literature on evacuation decision-making processes during rapidonset hazards, i.e., tropical cyclones, in coastal Bangladesh. We focus on three broad overlapping themes – early warning, risk perception, and evacuation decision-making. Major content-analysis findings suggest that two things – a lack of credibility in early warning messages and an inefficient dissemination process – tend to affect the risk perception of people at risk and are likely to eventually determine the success of evacuation decision-making. Findings also show that different socioeconomic and socio-cultural issues related to risk perception appear to be more influential than formal warning messages in propagating decisions to evacuate during a cyclone. Based on these results, we suggest specific policy recommendations for improving local evacuation efficiency.

scholarly journals Cumulative disaster exposure, gender and the protective action decision model

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 100042
Author(s):  
Jessica L. Liddell ◽  
Leia Y. Saltzman ◽  
Regardt J. Ferreira ◽  
Amy E. Lesen
Keyword(s):  
Decision Model ◽  
Protective Action ◽  
Protective Action Decision Model ◽  
Disaster Exposure ◽  
Action Decision

scholarly journals Risk Perception of the Iranian Healthcare Workers Concerning the Covid-19 Crisis and the Factors Affecting it: A Cross-Sectional Study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ezat Samadipour ◽  
Fatemeh Ghardashi ◽  
Roghayeh Zardosht ◽  
Fatemeh Borzoee ◽  
Elham Navipour
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Online Social Networks ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Healthcare Workers ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Health Workers ◽  
Average Risk ◽  
Snowball Sampling ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Perception Score

Abstract Background: The emergent Covid-19 disease with conspicuous prevalence is putting the healthcare workers' job security at risk. The preventive behaviors in every individual have a close relationship with his/her risk perception of the risk factor. Hence the present study has been undertaken aiming at determining the Iranian healthcare workers' risk perception of the Covid-19 disease and the relevant effective factors. Methods: This anonymous online survey was conducted in March-April, 2020 using targeted snowball sampling among the Iranian healthcare workers. The data was collected via online-social networks using a questionnaire containing demographical specifications (5 questions), risk perceptions (20 questions), with five sub-scales including cognitive, cultural, political, social and emotional factors. Data analysis was performed using SPSS v.16 software.Results: From 165 participants, the youth (20-49 years of age) with 84% and the females with 60% constituted the majority of participants. The average risk perception score of the healthcare workers was 66.43±8.17. The Spearman correlation coefficient showed the significant direct relationship between the risk perception score and all the sub-scales at 0.01 significance level. The political and cultural factors had the highest correlation with the personnel risk perception (r > 0.75).Conclusion: Health workers did not have an excellent risk perception of the emergent Covid-19 disease.

scholarly journals Risk Perception, Risk Communication, and Mitigation Actions of Flash Floods: Results from a Survey in Three Types of Communities

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 12389
Author(s):  
Ming Zhong ◽  
Lu Xiao ◽  
Qian Zhang ◽  
Tao Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Risk Communication ◽  
Rural Community ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Protective Action ◽  
Community Resilience ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Flood Hazards ◽  
Flood Warnings

In order to improve the decision-making of risk management and enhance community resilience to flash floods, the perception of risks, communication of warnings, and mitigation actions concerning flash floods were investigated in this study. The survey involves 280 participants from three types of communities in flash flood-prone areas. Results show that: (i) About 55.4% of community participants misperceived or underestimated the risk of flash floods, especially in the suburban communities, and people had misconceptions about the safety of crossing fast-flowing water, even though most of them had experienced flash flood hazards. (ii) In total, 67.9% of participants indicated that they had at some point received a flash flood warning. The perception of accuracy was related to trust in flash flood warnings, but they were different constructs for some individuals. Moreover, residents in the rural community and suburban community reported a closer social communication with neighbors, which would greatly influence inhabitants’ attitudes and behaviors towards the flash flood warnings and mitigation actions. (iii) Most of the participants indicated they would take some protective action when they received a warning. Risk perceptions and risk communications influence the mitigation actions in the community. Significant variables in the rural community and non-rural community were explored, and some important suggestions are highlighted. These findings suggest that risk perception and risk communication in neighborhoods help people to decide what action to take in the given scenarios, contribute to enhancing the community resilience, and contribute to coping with future flash floods in a more specific and effective way.

scholarly journals Facilitating Informed Decision Making: Determinants of University Students’ COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tugce Varol ◽  
Francine Schneider ◽  
Ilse Mesters ◽  
Robert A.C. Ruiter ◽  
Gerjo Kok ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Perception ◽  
University Students ◽  
Self Efficacy ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Informed Decision ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
Informed Decision Making ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Important Target

Objective: Although several COVID-19 vaccines are available, the current challenge is achieving high vaccine uptake. We aimed to explore university students’ intention to get vaccinated and select the most relevant determinants/beliefs to facilitate informed decision-making around COVID-19 vaccine uptake.Methods: A cross-sectional online survey with students (N = 434) from Maastricht University was conducted in March 2021. The most relevant determinants/beliefs of students’ COVID-19 vaccine intention (i.e., determinants linked to vaccination intention, and with enough potential for change) were visualized using CIBER plots. Results: Students’ intention to get the COVID-19 vaccine is high (80 %). Concerns about safety and side effects of the vaccine and trust in government, quality control, and the pharmaceutical industry are identified as the most relevant determinants of vaccine intention. Other predictors are risk perception, attitude, perceived norm, and self-efficacy beliefs. Conclusion: Our study identified several predictors of COVID-19 vaccine intention (e.g., safety, trust, risk perception, etc.) and helped to select the most relevant determinants/beliefs to target in an intervention to maximize the COVID-19 uptake. Where concerns and trust related to the COVID-19 vaccine are the most important target for future interventions, other determinants that were already positive (i.e., risk perception, attitudes, perceived norms, and self-efficacy) could be further confirmed.

scholarly journals Experiencing the risk of overutilising opioids among patients with chronic non-cancer pain in ambulatory care (ERONA): the protocol of an exploratory, randomised controlled trial

BMJ Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. e037642
Author(s):  
Odette Wegwarth ◽  
Claudia Spies ◽  
Erika Schulte ◽  
Joerg J Meerpohl ◽  
Christine Schmucker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Cancer Pain ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Controlled Trial ◽  
Risk Behaviour ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Term Administration ◽  
Randomised Controlled

IntroductionThe US opioid crisis and increasing prescription rates in Europe suggest inappropriate risk perceptions and behaviours of people who prescribe, take or advise on opioids: physicians, patients and pharmacists. Findings from cognitive and decision science in areas other than drug safety suggest that people’s risk perception and behaviour can differ depending on whether they learnt about a risk through personal experience or description. Experiencing the risk of overutilising opioids among patients with chronic non-cancer pain in ambulatory care (ERONA) is the first-ever conducted trial that aims at investigating the effects of these two modes of learning on individuals’ risk perception and behaviour in the long-term administration of WHO-III opioids in chronic non-cancer pain.Methods and analysisERONA—an exploratory, randomised controlled online survey intervention trial with two parallel arms—will examine the opioid-associated risk perception and behaviour of four groups involved in the long-term administration of WHO-III opioids: (1) family physicians, (2) physicians specialised in pain therapy, (3) patients with chronic (≥3 months) non-cancer pain and (4) pharmacists who regularly dispense narcotic substances. Participants will be randomly assigned to one of two online risk education interventions, description based or experiencebased. Both interventions will present the best medical evidence available. Participants will be queried at baseline and after intervention on their risk perception of opioids’ benefit–harm ratio, their medical risk literacy and their current/intended risk behaviour (in terms of prescribing, taking or counselling, depending on study group). A follow-up will occur after 9 months, when participants will be queried on their actual risk behaviour. The study was developed by the authors and will be conducted by the market research institution IPSOS Health.Ethics and disseminationThe study was approved by the Institutional Review Board of the Max Planck Institute for Human Development. Results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals, conference presentations and social media.Trial registration numberDRKS00020358.

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