scholarly journals Synchronous cycles of domestic dog rabies in sub-Saharan Africa and the impact of control efforts

2007 ◽  
Vol 104 (18) ◽  
pp. 7717-7722 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katie Hampson ◽  
Jonathan Dushoff ◽  
John Bingham ◽  
Gideon Brückner ◽  
Y. H. Ali ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Domestic Dogs ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Domestic Dog ◽  
Eastern Africa ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Persistent Problem ◽  
Canine Rabies ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
The Impact

Rabies is a fatal neurological pathogen that is a persistent problem throughout the developing world where it is spread primarily by domestic dogs. Although the disease has been extensively studied in wildlife populations in Europe and North America, the dynamics of rabies in domestic dog populations has been almost entirely neglected. Here, we demonstrate that rabies epidemics in southern and eastern Africa cycle with a period of 3–6 years and show significant synchrony across the region. The observed period is shorter than predictions based on epidemiological parameters for rabies in domestic dogs. We find evidence that rabies prevention measures, including vaccination, are affected by disease prevalence and show that a simple model with intervention responses can capture observed disease periodicity and host dynamics. We suggest that movement of infectious or latent animals combined with coordinated control responses may be important in coupling populations and generating synchrony at the continental scale. These findings have important implications for rabies prediction and control: large-scale synchrony and the importance of intervention responses suggest that control of canine rabies in Africa will require sustained efforts coordinated across political boundaries.

scholarly journals Modelling African biomass burning emissions and the effect of spatial resolution

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dave van Wees ◽  
Guido R. van der Werf
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Fuel Load ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fire Emissions ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Coarse Resolution ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Large-scale fire emission estimates may be influenced by the spatial resolution of the model and input datasets used. Especially in areas with relatively heterogeneous land cover, a coarse model resolution might lead to substantial errors in estimates. In this paper, we developed a model using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite observations of burned area and vegetation characteristics to study the impact of spatial resolution on modelled fire emission estimates. We estimated fire emissions for sub-Saharan Africa at 500-meter spatial resolution (native MODIS burned area) for the 2002–2017 period, using a simplified version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) modelling framework, and compared this to model runs at a range of coarser resolutions (0.050°, 0.125°, 0.250°). We estimated fire emissions of 0.68 PgC yr−1 at 500-meter resolution and 0.82 PgC yr−1 at 0.25° resolution; a difference of 24 %. At 0.25° resolution, our model results were relatively similar to GFED4, which also runs at 0.25° resolution, whereas our 500-meter estimates were substantially lower. We found that lower emissions at finer resolutions are mainly the result of reduced representation errors when comparing modelled estimates of fuel load and consumption to field measurements, as part of the model calibration. Additional errors stem from the model simulation at coarse resolution and lead to an additional 0.02 PgC yr−1 difference in estimates. These errors exist due to the aggregation of quantitative and qualitative model input data; the average- or majority- aggregated values are propagated in the coarse resolution simulation and affect the model parameterization and the final result. We identified at least three error mechanisms responsible for the differences in estimates between 500-meter and 0.25° resolution simulations, besides those stemming from representation errors in the calibration process, namely: 1. biome misclassification leading to errors in parameterization, 2. errors due to the averaging of input data and the associated reduction in variability, and 3. a temporal mechanism related to the aggregation of burned area in particular. Even though these mechanisms largely neutralized each other and only modestly affect estimates at a continental scale, they lead to substantial error at regional scales with deviations up to a factor 4, and may affect large-scale estimates differently for other continents. These findings could prove valuable in improving coarse resolution models and suggest the need for increased spatial resolution in global fire emission models.

scholarly journals Modelling biomass burning emissions and the effect of spatial resolution: a case study for Africa based on the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED)

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 4681-4703
Author(s):  
Dave van Wees ◽  
Guido R. van der Werf
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Fuel Load ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fire Emissions ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Coarse Resolution ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Large-scale fire emission estimates may be influenced by the spatial resolution of the model and input datasets used. Especially in areas with relatively heterogeneous land cover, a coarse model resolution might lead to substantial errors in estimates. We developed a model using MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite observations of burned area and vegetation characteristics to study the impact of spatial resolution on modelled fire emission estimates. We estimated fire emissions for sub-Saharan Africa at 500 m spatial resolution (native MODIS burned area) for the 2002–2017 period, using a simplified version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) modelling framework, and compared this to model runs at a range of coarser resolutions (0.050, 0.125, 0.250∘). We estimated fire emissions of 0.68 Pg C yr−1 at 500 m resolution and 0.82 Pg C yr−1 at 0.25∘ resolution; a difference of 24 %. At 0.25∘ resolution, our model results were relatively similar to GFED4, which also runs at 0.25∘ resolution, whereas our 500 m estimates were substantially lower. We found that lower emissions at finer resolutions are mainly the result of reduced representation errors when comparing modelled estimates of fuel load and consumption to field measurements, as part of the model calibration. Additional errors stem from the model simulation at coarse resolution and lead to an additional 0.02 Pg C yr−1 difference in estimates. These errors exist due to the aggregation of quantitative and qualitative model input data; the average- or majority- aggregated values are propagated in the coarse-resolution simulation and affect the model parameterization and the final result. We identified at least three error mechanisms responsible for the differences in estimates between 500 m and 0.25∘ resolution simulations, besides those stemming from representation errors in the calibration process, namely (1) biome misclassification leading to errors in parameterization, (2) errors due to the averaging of input data and the associated reduction in variability, and (3) a temporal mechanism related to the aggregation of burned area in particular. Even though these mechanisms largely neutralized each other and only modestly affect estimates at a continental scale, they lead to substantial error at regional scales with deviations of up to a factor 4 and may affect large-scale estimates differently for other continents. These findings could prove valuable in improving coarse-resolution models and suggest the need for increased spatial resolution in global fire emission models.

scholarly journals Resource frontiers and agglomeration economies: The varied logics of transnational land-based investing in Southern and Eastern Africa

AMBIO ◽  
2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dilini Abeygunawardane ◽  
Angela Kronenburg García ◽  
Zhanli Sun ◽  
Daniel Müller ◽  
Almeida Sitoe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Data ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Agglomeration Economies ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Eastern Africa ◽  
Track Record ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Forestry Investments ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Investment Location

AbstractActor-level data on large-scale commercial agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa are scarce. The peculiar choice of transnational investing in African land has, therefore, been subject to conjecture. Addressing this gap, we reconstructed the underlying logics of investment location choices in a Bayesian network, using firm- and actor-level interview and spatial data from 37 transnational agriculture and forestry investments across 121 sites in Mozambique, Zambia, Tanzania, and Ethiopia. We distinguish four investment locations across gradients of resource frontiers and agglomeration economies to derive the preferred locations of different investors with varied skillsets and market reach (i.e., track record). In contrast to newcomers, investors with extensive track records are more likely to expand the land use frontier, but they are also likely to survive the high transaction costs of the pre-commercial frontier. We highlight key comparative advantages of Southern and Eastern African frontiers and map the most probable categories of investment locations.

scholarly journals Modelling the influence of naturally acquired immunity from subclinical infection on outbreak dynamics and persistence of rabies in domestic dogs

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (7) ◽  
pp. e0009581
Author(s):  
Susannah Gold ◽  
Christl A. Donnelly ◽  
Rosie Woodroffe ◽  
Pierre Nouvellet
Keyword(s):  
Control Strategies ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Domestic Dogs ◽  
Domestic Dog ◽  
Acquired Immunity ◽  
High Exposure ◽  
Common Assumption ◽  
Canine Rabies ◽  
Low Levels

A number of mathematical models have been developed for canine rabies to explore dynamics and inform control strategies. A common assumption of these models is that naturally acquired immunity plays no role in rabies dynamics. However, empirical studies have detected rabies-specific antibodies in healthy, unvaccinated domestic dogs, potentially due to immunizing, non-lethal exposure. We developed a stochastic model for canine rabies, parameterised for Laikipia County, Kenya, to explore the implications of different scenarios for naturally acquired immunity to rabies in domestic dogs. Simulating these scenarios using a non-spatial model indicated that low levels of immunity can act to limit rabies incidence and prevent depletion of the domestic dog population, increasing the probability of disease persistence. However, incorporating spatial structure and human response to high rabies incidence allowed the virus to persist in the absence of immunity. While low levels of immunity therefore had limited influence under a more realistic approximation of rabies dynamics, high rates of exposure leading to immunizing non-lethal exposure were required to produce population-level seroprevalences comparable with those reported in empirical studies. False positives and/or spatial variation may contribute to high empirical seroprevalences. However, if high seroprevalences are related to high exposure rates, these findings support the need for high vaccination coverage to effectively control this disease.

HIV/AIDS

2020 ◽  
pp. 901-933
Author(s):  
Sarah Fidler ◽  
Timothy E.A. Peto ◽  
Philip Goulder ◽  
Christopher P. Conlon
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
People Living With Hiv ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
The People ◽  
Reduce Life Expectancy ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Living With Hiv ◽  
The Impact

Since its discovery in 1983, the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) has been associated with a global pandemic that has affected more than 78 million people and caused more than 39 million deaths. Globally, 36.9 million (34.3–41.4 million) people were living with HIV at the end of 2013. An estimated 0.8% of adults aged 15–49 years worldwide are living with HIV, although the burden of the epidemic continues to vary considerably between countries and regions. Sub-Saharan Africa remains most severely affected, with nearly 1 in every 20 adults living with HIV and accounting for nearly 71% of the people living with HIV worldwide. The impact of HIV in some African countries has been sufficient to reverse population growth and reduce life expectancy into the mid-30s, although HIV incidence has declined in some of these high-prevalence countries. However, there are large-scale HIV epidemics elsewhere (e.g. India, the Russian Federation, and Eastern Europe).

scholarly journals Investigation of the temporal roaming behaviour of free-roaming domestic dogs in Indigenous communities in northern Australia to inform rabies incursion preparedness

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth K. Maher ◽  
Michael P. Ward ◽  
Victoria J. Brookes
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Indigenous Communities ◽  
Domestic Dog ◽  
Northern Australia ◽  
Remote Communities ◽  
Canine Rabies ◽  
Torres Strait ◽  
Associated Risk Factors ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Australia is canine rabies free but free-roaming, domestic dog populations in remote northern communities are at risk of an incursion due to proximity to rabies-endemic south-east Asia. Unrestricted contact between dogs could facilitate rabies spread following an incursion, and increase the impact on both dogs and people. Whilst dog vaccination is the foundation of rabies prevention, control strategies could be enhanced by understanding the temporal pattern of roaming and associated risk factors, so that movement restrictions can be targeted. Global positioning system datasets from 132 dogs in eight Indigenous communities in the Torres Strait and Northern Peninsula Area (NPA) of Australia were analysed using regression methods. The influence of risk factors (including age, sex, location, season and hour of day) on dogs’ distance from their residences were assessed. Dogs roamed furthest in the NPA and during the dry season. Daily peaks in mean roaming distance were observed at 1000–1100 hrs and 1700–1800 hrs in the Torres Strait, and 1700–1800 hrs in the NPA. These findings demonstrate that understanding community-specific temporal roaming patterns can inform targeted movement restrictions during an outbreak of rabies in remote communities in northern Australia.

scholarly journals Serological detection of infection with canine distemper virus, canine parvovirus and canine adenovirus in communal dogs from Zimbabwe

2014 ◽  
Vol 85 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna McRee ◽  
Rebecca P. Wilkes ◽  
Jessica Dawson ◽  
Roger Parry ◽  
Chris Foggin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Canine Distemper Virus ◽  
Wildlife Conservation ◽  
Canine Parvovirus ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Domestic Dogs ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay ◽  
Canine Distemper ◽  
The Impact

Domestic dogs are common amongst communities in sub-Saharan Africa and may serve as important reservoirs for infectious agents that may cause diseases in wildlife. Two agents of concern are canine parvovirus (CPV) and canine distemper virus (CDV), which may infect and cause disease in large carnivore species such as African wild dogs and African lions, respectively. The impact of domestic dogs and their diseases on wildlife conservation is increasing in Zimbabwe, necessitating thorough assessment and implementation of control measures. In this study, domestic dogs in north-western Zimbabwe were evaluated for antibodies to CDV, CPV, and canine adenovirus (CAV). These dogs were communal and had no vaccination history. Two hundred and twenty-five blood samples were collected and tested using a commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for antibodies to CPV, CDV, and CAV. Of these dogs, 75 (34%) had detectable antibodies to CDV, whilst 191 (84%) had antibodies to CPV. Antibodies to canine adenovirus were present in 28 (13%) dogs. Canine parvovirus had high prevalence in all six geographic areas tested. These results indicate that CPV is circulating widely amongst domestic dogs in the region. In addition, CDV is present at high levels. Both pathogens can infect wildlife species. Efforts for conservation of large carnivores in Zimbabwe must address the role of domestic dogs in disease transmission.

scholarly journals Characterizing the contribution of high temperatures to child undernourishment in Sub-Saharan Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel E. Baker ◽  
Jesse Anttila-Hughes
Keyword(s):  
High Temperatures ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Child Nutrition ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Eastern Africa ◽  
Multiple Time Scales ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Despite improvements to global economic conditions, child undernourishment has increased in recent years, with approximately 7.5% of children suffering from wasting. Climate change is expected to worsen food insecurity and increase potential threats to nutrition, particularly in low-income and lower-middle income countries where the majority of undernourished children live. We combine anthropometric data for 192,000 children from 30 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with historical climate data to directly estimate the effect of temperature on key malnutrition outcomes. We first document a strong negative relationship between child weight and average temperature across regions. We then exploit variation in weather conditions to statistically identify the effects of increased temperatures over multiple time scales on child nutrition. Increased temperatures in the month of survey, year leading up to survey and child lifetime lead to meaningful declines in acute measures of child nutrition. We find that the lifetime-scale effects explain most of the region-level negative relationship between weight and temperature, indicating that high temperatures may be a constraint on child nutrition. We use CMIP5 local temperature projections to project the impact of future warming, and find substantial increases in malnutrition depending on location: western Africa would see a 37% increase in the prevalence of wasting by 2100, and central and eastern Africa 25%.

scholarly journals Reduction of malaria vector mosquitoes in a large-scale intervention trial in rural Burkina Faso using Bti based larval source management

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Dambach ◽  
Till Baernighausen ◽  
Issouf Traoré ◽  
Saidou Ouedraogo ◽  
Ali Sié ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Malaria Vector ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Intermittent Preventive Treatment ◽  
Indoor Residual Spraying ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Intervention Period ◽  
Selective Treatment ◽  
Breeding Sites ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Malaria remains one of the most important causes of morbidity and death in sub-Saharan Africa. Along with early diagnosis and treatment of malaria cases and intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy (IPTp), vector control is an important tool in the reduction of new cases. Alongside the use of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS), targeting the vector larvae with biological larvicides, such as Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis (Bti) is gaining importance as a means of reducing the number of mosquito larvae before they emerge to their adult stage. This study presents data corroborating the entomological impact of such an intervention in a rural African environment. Methods The study extended over 2 years and researched the impact of biological larviciding with Bti on malaria mosquitoes that were caught indoors and outdoors of houses using light traps. The achieved reductions in female Anopheles mosquitoes were calculated for two different larviciding choices using a regression model. Results In villages that received selective treatment of the most productive breeding sites, the number of female Anopheles spp. dropped by 61% (95% CI 54–66%) compared to the pre-intervention period. In villages in which all breeding sites were treated, the number of female Anopheles spp. was reduced by 70% (95% CI 64–74%) compared to the pre-intervention period. Conclusion It was shown that malaria vector abundance can be dramatically reduced through larviciding of breeding habitats and that, in many geographical settings, they are a viable addition to current malaria control measures.

scholarly journals A Modeling Study of the Causes and Predictability of the Spring 2011 Extreme U.S. Weather Activity

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (21) ◽  
pp. 7869-7887 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siegfried Schubert ◽  
Yehui Chang ◽  
Hailan Wang ◽  
Randal Koster ◽  
Max Suarez
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Primary Source ◽  
Ohio River ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Initial State ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Sst Forcing ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study examines the causes and predictability of the spring 2011 U.S. extreme weather using the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5, (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model simulations. The focus is on assessing the impact on precipitation of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, land conditions, and large-scale atmospheric modes of variability. A key result is that the April record-breaking precipitation in the Ohio River valley was primarily the result of the unforced development of a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like mode of variability with unusually large amplitude, limiting the predictability of the precipitation in that region at 1-month leads. SST forcing (La Niña conditions) contributed to the broader continental-scale pattern of precipitation anomalies, producing drying in the southern plains and weak wet anomalies in the northeast, while the impact of realistic initial North American land conditions was to enhance precipitation in the upper Midwest and produce deficits in the Southeast. It was further found that 1) the 1 March atmospheric initial condition was the primary source of the ensemble mean precipitation response over the eastern United States in April (well beyond the limit of weather predictability), suggesting an influence on the initial state of the previous SST forcing and/or tropospheric–stratospheric coupling linked to an unusually persistent and cold polar vortex; and 2) stationary wave model experiments suggest that the SST-forced base state for April enhanced the amplitude of the NAO response compared to that of the climatological state, though the impact is modest and can be of either sign.

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