Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia

Warmer and drier climatic conditions are projected for the 21st century; however, the role played by extreme climatic events on forest vulnerability is still little understood. For example, more severe droughts and heat waves could threaten quaternary relict tree refugia such as Circum-Mediterranean fir forests (CMFF). Using tree-ring data and a process-based model, we characterized the major climate constraints of recent (1950–2010) CMFF growth to project their vulnerability to 21st-century climate. Simulations predict a 30% growth reduction in some fir species with the 2050s business-as-usual emission scenario, whereas growth would increase in moist refugia due to a longer and warmer growing season. Fir populations currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerable in the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat spells causing dieback in the late 20th century. Quantification of growth trends based on climate scenarios could allow defining vulnerability thresholds in tree populations. The presented predictions call for conservation strategies to safeguard relict tree populations and anticipate how many refugia could be threatened by 21st-century dry spells.

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Projected drought conditions by CMIP6 multimodel ensemble over Southeast Asia

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2021.308 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

S. Supharatid ◽

J. Nafung

Keyword(s):

Southeast Asia ◽

21St Century ◽

Water Resource Management ◽

Agricultural Sector ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Climate Extremes ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Multimodel Ensemble ◽

Wet Condition ◽

Dry Conditions

Abstract Southeast Asia (SEA) is vulnerable to climate extremes due to its large and growing population, long coastlines with low-lying areas, reliance on agricultural sector developments. Here, the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) was employed to examine future climate change and drought in this region under two SSP–RCP (shared socioeconomic pathway–representative concentration pathway) scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The CMIP6 multimodel ensemble mean projects a warming (wetting) of 1.99–4.29 °C (9.62–18.43%) in the 21st century. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index at 12-month time scales (SPEI-12) displays moderate-to-severe dry conditions over all countries during the near-future period, then the wet condition is projected from mid-future to far-future periods. The projected drought characteristics show relatively longer durations, higher peak intensities, and more severities under SSP5-8.5, while the higher number of events are projected under SSP2-4.5. Overall, the SPEI-12 over SEA displays significant regional differences with decreasing dryness trend toward the 21st century. All these findings have important implications for policy intervention to water resource management under a changing climate over SEA.

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Åland churches as archives of tree-ring records sensitive to fluctuating climate

Acta Palaeobotanica ◽

10.2478/acpa-2019-0002 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 59 (1) ◽

pp. 131-143 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Samuli Helama ◽

Thomas S. Bartholin

Keyword(s):

Tree Ring ◽

Construction Projects ◽

Late Quaternary ◽

Low Frequency ◽

Time Frame ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Proxy Records ◽

Tree Ring Data ◽

Different Types ◽

Dry Conditions

Abstract Tree-ring chronologies provide high-resolution late Quaternary palaeoclimatic data. An important aim of tree-ring research is to extend the chronologies back in time, before the period covered by old living trees. Tree-ring material from historic buildings offers an opportunity to develop long chronologies that, in some regions, may cover the period of the past millennium. Such materials have remained in conditions favourable to preservation and can be used to date the construction timber by means of dendrochronology. Apart from dating, tree-ring data may prove valuable in interpreting past climatic conditions. Here we analyse the data of 111 Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) tree-ring series from the Åland Islands in south-western Finland. In so doing, we illustrate the variation of wetness and drought in the region over a historical time frame (1057–1826). Non-climatic trends were removed from these series using alternative types of detrending procedures. Tree-ring chronologies constructed from the same raw data but using different types of detrending methods agreed on annual to subcentennial scales. The chronologies produced using regional curve standardization (RCS), preferably combined with implementation of a signal-free approach, were comparable with previously published sedimentary and tree-ring evidence from the same region. While non-RCS methods are effective in removing non-climatic information from the chronology, they also resulted in removal of the long-term variation (low-frequency), which did, at least in our data, represent the palaeoclimatic signal common to different types of proxy records. These records, including our data and those of gridded reconstructions developed previously as the Old World Drought Atlas, agreed in indicating dry conditions over the pre-1250 period and around the mid-15th century. The Åland chronology is characterized by notable fluctuations in the availability of tree-ring samples; the periods with low sample replication probably pinpoint years when large construction projects were suspended on these islands.

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“Band Wagon and Gravy Train”: uses and abuses along the Silk Road

Afghanistan ◽

10.3366/afg.2019.0035 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 2 (2) ◽

pp. 171-194

Author(s):

Warwick Ball

Keyword(s):

20Th Century ◽

21St Century ◽

Silk Road ◽

Late 20Th Century ◽

Ancient Trade ◽

International Image ◽

Academic Discussion ◽

The Silk Road

The Silk Road as an image is a relatively new one for Afghanistan. It appeals to both the pre-Islamic and the perceived Islamic past, thus offering an Islamic balance to previous identities linked to Bamiyan or to the Kushans. It also appeals to a broader and more international image, one that has been taken up by many other countries. This paper traces the rise of the image of the Silk Road and its use as a metaphor for ancient trade to encompass all contacts throughout Eurasia, prehistoric, ancient and modern, but also how the image has been adopted and expanded into many other areas: politics, tourism and academia. It is argued here that the origin and popularity of the term lies in late 20th century (and increasingly 21st century) politics rather than any reality of ancient trade. Its consequent validity as a metaphor in academic discussion is questioned

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Fostering 21st-Century Evolutionary Reasoning: Teaching Tree Thinking to Introductory Biology Students

CBE—Life Sciences Education ◽

10.1187/cbe.15-06-0127 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 15 (4) ◽

pp. ar66 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Laura R. Novick ◽

Kefyn M. Catley

Keyword(s):

21St Century ◽

Assessment Instrument ◽

Medium Size ◽

Introductory Biology ◽

Biology Students ◽

Tree Thinking ◽

Experimental Instruction ◽

Vital Component ◽

New Research ◽

Business As Usual

The ability to interpret and reason from Tree of Life (ToL) diagrams has become a vital component of science literacy in the 21st century. This article reports on the effectiveness of a research-based curriculum, including an instructional booklet, laboratory, and lectures, to teach the fundamentals of such tree thinking in an introductory biology class for science majors. We present the results of a study involving 117 undergraduates who received either our new research-based tree-thinking curriculum or business-as-usual instruction. We found greater gains in tree-thinking abilities for the experimental instruction group than for the business-as-usual group, as measured by performance on our novel assessment instrument. This was a medium size effect. These gains were observed on an unannounced test that was administered ∼5–6 weeks after the primary instruction in tree thinking. The nature of students’ postinstruction difficulties with tree thinking suggests that the critical underlying concept for acquiring expert-level competence in this area is understanding that any specific phylogenetic tree is a subset of the complete, unimaginably large ToL.

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Projected Hydrologic Changes Under Mid-21st Century Climatic Conditions in a Sub-arctic Watershed

Water Resources Management ◽

10.1007/s11269-014-0887-5 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 29 (5) ◽

pp. 1467-1487 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Debjani Deb ◽

Jonathan Butcher ◽

Raghavan Srinivasan

Keyword(s):

21St Century ◽

Climatic Conditions

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Strong sensitivity of late 21st century climate to projected changes in short-lived air pollutants

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres ◽

10.1029/2007jd009176 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 113 (D6) ◽

Cited By ~ 73

Author(s):

Hiram Levy ◽

M. Daniel Schwarzkopf ◽

Larry Horowitz ◽

V. Ramaswamy ◽

K. L. Findell

Keyword(s):

21St Century ◽

Air Pollutants ◽

Late 21St Century ◽

Projected Changes

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Feasibility of The Olympic Marathon Under Climatic And Socioeconomic Change

10.21203/rs.3.rs-906806/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Takahiro Oyama ◽

Jun'ya Takakura ◽

Minoru Fujii ◽

Kenichi Nakajima ◽

Yasuaki Hijioka

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

21St Century ◽

Emission Scenario ◽

Olympic Games ◽

Climate Factors ◽

Socioeconomic Conditions ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Marathon Runners ◽

Late 21St Century ◽

The Impact

Abstract There are concerns about the impact of climate change on Olympic Games, especially endurance events, such as marathons. In recent competitions, many marathon runners dropped out of their races due to extreme heat, and it is expected that more areas will be unable to host the Olympic Games due to climate change. Here, we show the feasibility of the Olympic marathon considering the variations in climate factors, socioeconomic conditions, and adaptation measures. The number of current possible host cities will decline by up to 24% worldwide by the late 21st century. Dozens of emerging cities, especially in Asia, will not be capable of hosting the marathon under the highest emission scenario. Moving the marathon from August to October and holding the games in multiple cities in the country are effective measures, and they should be considered if we are to maintain the regional diversity of the games.

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Arctic Freshwater in CMIP6: Declining Sea Ice, Increasing Ocean Storage and Export

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6391 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Hannah Zanowski ◽

Alexandra Jahn ◽

Marika Holland

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

21St Century ◽

Barents Sea ◽

The Arctic ◽

Historical Period ◽

Freshwater Flux ◽

Bering Strait ◽

The Barents Sea ◽

Late 21St Century ◽

Freshwater Export

<p>Recently, the Arctic has undergone substantial changes in sea ice cover and the hydrologic cycle, both of which strongly impact the freshwater storage in, and export from, the Arctic Ocean. Here we analyze Arctic freshwater storage and fluxes in 7 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and assess their agreement over the historical period (1980-2000) and in two future emissions scenarios, SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. In the historical simulation, few models agree closely with observations over 1980-2000. In both future scenarios the models show an increase in liquid (ocean) freshwater storage in conjunction with a reduction in solid storage and fluxes through the major Arctic gateways (Bering Strait, Fram Strait, Davis Strait, and the Barents Sea Opening) that is typically larger for SSP5-8.5 than SSP1-2.6. The liquid fluxes through the gateways exhibit a more complex pattern, with models exhibiting a change in sign of the freshwater flux through the Barents Sea Opening and little change in the flux through the Bering Strait in addition to increased export from the remaining straits by the end of the 21st century. A decomposition of the liquid fluxes into their salinity and volume contributions shows that the Barents Sea flux changes are driven by salinity changes, while the Bering Strait flux changes are driven by compensating salinity and volume changes. In the straits west of Greenland (Nares, Barrow, and Davis straits), the models disagree on whether there will be a decrease, increase, or steady liquid freshwater export in the early to mid 21st century, although they mostly show increased liquid freshwater export in the late 21st century. The underlying cause of this is a difference in the magnitude and timing of a simulated decrease in the volume flux through these straits. Although the models broadly agree on the sign of late 21st century storage and flux changes, substantial differences exist between the magnitude of these changes and the models&#8217; Arctic mean states, which shows no fundamental improvement in the models compared to CMIP5.</p>

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Wonder, Horror, Mystery: Letters on Cinema and Religion in Malick, Von Trier, and Kieślowski

10.53288/0359.1.00 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Morgan Meis ◽

J.M. Tyree

Keyword(s):

20Th Century ◽

21St Century ◽

Film Theory ◽

The Other ◽

Life Meaning ◽

Late 20Th Century ◽

Early 21St Century ◽

Lars Von Trier ◽

Creative Writer ◽

Film Critic

Wonder, Horror, Mystery is a dialogue between two friends, both notable arts critics, that takes the form of a series of letters about movies and religion. One of the friends, J.M. Tyree, is a film critic, creative writer, and agnostic, while the other, Morgan Meis, is a philosophy PhD, art critic, and practicing Catholic. The question of cinema is raised here in a spirit of friendly friction that binds the personal with the critical and the spiritual. What is film? What’s it for? What does it do? Why do we so intensely love or hate films that dare to broach the subjects of the divine and the diabolical? These questions stimulate further thoughts about life, meaning, philosophy, absurdity, friendship, tragedy, humor, death, and God. The letters focus on three filmmakers who challenged secular assumptions in the late 20th century and early 21st century through various modes of cinematic re-enchantment: Terrence Malick, Lars von Trier, and Krzysztof Kieślowski. The book works backwards in time, giving intensive analysis to Malick’s To The Wonder (2012), Von Trier’s Antichrist (2009), and Kieślowski’s Dekalog (1988), respectively, in each of the book’s three sections. Meis and Tyree discuss the filmmakers and films as well as related ideas about philosophy, theology, and film theory in an accessible but illuminating way. The discussion ranges from the shamelessly intellectual to the embarrassingly personal. Spoiler alert: No conclusions are reached either about God or the movies. Nonetheless, it is a fun ride.

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