Arctic Freshwater in CMIP6: Declining Sea Ice, Increasing Ocean Storage and Export

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannah Zanowski ◽  
Alexandra Jahn ◽  
Marika Holland
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Freshwater Flux ◽  
Bering Strait ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Late 21St Century ◽  
Freshwater Export

<p>Recently, the Arctic has undergone substantial changes in sea ice cover and the hydrologic cycle, both of which strongly impact the freshwater storage in, and export from, the Arctic Ocean. Here we analyze Arctic freshwater storage and fluxes in 7 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and assess their agreement over the historical period (1980-2000) and in two future emissions scenarios, SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. In the historical simulation, few models agree closely with observations over 1980-2000. In both future scenarios the models show an increase in liquid (ocean) freshwater storage in conjunction with a reduction in solid storage and fluxes through the major Arctic gateways (Bering Strait, Fram Strait, Davis Strait, and the Barents Sea Opening) that is typically larger for SSP5-8.5 than SSP1-2.6. The liquid fluxes through the gateways exhibit a more complex pattern, with models exhibiting a change in sign of the freshwater flux through the Barents Sea Opening and little change in the flux through the Bering Strait in addition to increased export from the remaining straits by the end of the 21st century. A decomposition of the liquid fluxes into their salinity and volume contributions shows that the Barents Sea flux changes are driven by salinity changes, while the Bering Strait flux changes are driven by compensating salinity and volume changes. In the straits west of Greenland (Nares, Barrow, and Davis straits), the models disagree on whether there will be a decrease, increase, or steady liquid freshwater export in the early to mid 21st century, although they mostly show increased liquid freshwater export in the late 21st century. The underlying cause of this is a difference in the magnitude and timing of a simulated decrease in the volume flux through these straits. Although the models broadly agree on the sign of late 21st century storage and flux changes, substantial differences exist between the magnitude of these changes and the models’ Arctic mean states, which shows no fundamental improvement in the models compared to CMIP5.</p>

scholarly journals Arctic sea ice area in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate model ensembles – variability and change

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 1077-1131 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. A. Semenov ◽  
T. Martin ◽  
L. K. Behrens ◽  
M. Latif
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea

Abstract. The shrinking Arctic sea ice cover observed during the last decades is probably the clearest manifestation of ongoing climate change. While climate models in general reproduce the sea ice retreat in the Arctic during the 20th century and simulate further sea ice area loss during the 21st century in response to anthropogenic forcing, the models suffer from large biases and the model results exhibit considerable spread. The last generation of climate models from World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), when compared to the previous CMIP3 model ensemble and considering the whole Arctic, were found to be more consistent with the observed changes in sea ice extent during the recent decades. Some CMIP5 models project strongly accelerated (non-linear) sea ice loss during the first half of the 21st century. Here, complementary to previous studies, we compare results from CMIP3 and CMIP5 with respect to regional Arctic sea ice change. We focus on September and March sea ice. Sea ice area (SIA) variability, sea ice concentration (SIC) variability, and characteristics of the SIA seasonal cycle and interannual variability have been analysed for the whole Arctic, termed Entire Arctic, Central Arctic and Barents Sea. Further, the sensitivity of SIA changes to changes in Northern Hemisphere (NH) averaged temperature is investigated and several important dynamical links between SIA and natural climate variability involving the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and sea level pressure gradient (SLPG) in the western Barents Sea opening serving as an index of oceanic inflow to the Barents Sea are studied. The CMIP3 and CMIP5 models not only simulate a coherent decline of the Arctic SIA but also depict consistent changes in the SIA seasonal cycle and in the aforementioned dynamical links. The spatial patterns of SIC variability improve in the CMIP5 ensemble, particularly in summer. Both CMIP ensembles depict a significant link between the SIA and NH temperature changes. Our analysis suggests that, on average, the sensitivity of SIA to external forcing is enhanced in the CMIP5 models. The Arctic SIA variability response to anthropogenic forcing is different in CMIP3 and CMIP5. While the CMIP3 models simulate increased variability in March and September, the CMIP5 ensemble shows the opposite tendency. A noticeable improvement in the simulation of summer SIA by the CMIP5 models is often accompanied by worse results for winter SIA characteristics. The relation between SIA and mean AMOC changes is opposite in September and March, with March SIA changes being positively correlated with AMOC slowing. Finally, both CMIP ensembles demonstrate an ability to capture, at least qualitatively, important dynamical links of SIA to decadal variability of the AMOC, NAO and SLPG. SIA in the Barents Sea is strongly overestimated by the majority of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models, and projected SIA changes are characterized by a large spread giving rise to high uncertainty.

Sea Ice Thickness Forecast Performance in the Barents Sea

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Hume-Wright ◽  
Emma Fiedler ◽  
Nicolas Fournier ◽  
Joana Mendes ◽  
Ed Blockley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
In Situ Data ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Ice Conditions

Abstract The presence of sea ice has a major impact on the safety, operability and efficiency of Arctic operations and navigation. While satellite-based sea ice charting is routinely used for tactical ice management, the marine sector does not yet make use of existing operational sea ice thickness forecasting. However, data products are now freely available from the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS). Arctic asset managers and vessels’ crews are generally not aware of such products, or these have so far suffered from insufficient accuracy, verification, resolution and adequate format, in order to be well integrated within their existing decision-making processes and systems. The objective of the EU H2020 project “Safe maritime operations under extreme conditions: The Arctic case” (SEDNA) is to improve the safety and efficiency of Arctic navigation. This paper presents a component focusing on the validation of an adaption of the 7-day sea ice thickness forecast from the UK Met Office Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM). The experimental forecast model assimilates the CryoSat-2 satellite’s ice freeboard daily data. Forecast skill is evaluated against unique in-situ data from five moorings deployed between 2015 and 2018 by the Barents Sea Metocean and Ice Network (BASMIN) Joint Industry Project. The study shows that the existing FOAM forecasts produce adequate results in the Barents Sea. However, while studies have shown the assimilation of CryoSat-2 data is effective for thick sea ice conditions, this did not improve forecasts for the thinner sea ice conditions of the Barents Sea.

Climate in the Barents Region

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rasmus Benestad
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Arctic Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Storm Activity ◽  
Svalbard Archipelago ◽  
British Antarctic Survey ◽  
Barents Region ◽  
The Barents Sea

The Barents Sea is a region of the Arctic Ocean named after one of its first known explorers (1594–1597), Willem Barentsz from the Netherlands, although there are accounts of earlier explorations: the Norwegian seafarer Ottar rounded the northern tip of Europe and explored the Barents and White Seas between 870 and 890 ce, a journey followed by a number of Norsemen; Pomors hunted seals and walruses in the region; and Novgorodian merchants engaged in the fur trade. These seafarers were probably the first to accumulate knowledge about the nature of sea ice in the Barents region; however, scientific expeditions and the exploration of the climate of the region had to wait until the invention and employment of scientific instruments such as the thermometer and barometer. Most of the early exploration involved mapping the land and the sea ice and making geographical observations. There were also many unsuccessful attempts to use the Northeast Passage to reach the Bering Strait. The first scientific expeditions involved F. P. Litke (1821±1824), P. K. Pakhtusov (1834±1835), A. K. Tsivol’ka (1837±1839), and Henrik Mohn (1876–1878), who recorded oceanographic, ice, and meteorological conditions.The scientific study of the Barents region and its climate has been spearheaded by a number of campaigns. There were four generations of the International Polar Year (IPY): 1882–1883, 1932–1933, 1957–1958, and 2007–2008. A British polar campaign was launched in July 1945 with Antarctic operations administered by the Colonial Office, renamed as the Falkland Islands Dependencies Survey (FIDS); it included a scientific bureau by 1950. It was rebranded as the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) in 1962 (British Antarctic Survey History leaflet). While BAS had its initial emphasis on the Antarctic, it has also been involved in science projects in the Barents region. The most dedicated mission to the Arctic and the Barents region has been the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), which has commissioned a series of reports on the Arctic climate: the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) report, the Snow Water Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA) report, and the Adaptive Actions in a Changing Arctic (AACA) report.The climate of the Barents Sea is strongly influenced by the warm waters from the Norwegian current bringing heat from the subtropical North Atlantic. The region is 10°C–15°C warmer than the average temperature on the same latitude, and a large part of the Barents Sea is open water even in winter. It is roughly bounded by the Svalbard archipelago, northern Fennoscandia, the Kanin Peninsula, Kolguyev Island, Novaya Zemlya, and Franz Josef Land, and is a shallow ocean basin which constrains physical processes such as currents and convection. To the west, the Greenland Sea forms a buffer region with some of the strongest temperature gradients on earth between Iceland and Greenland. The combination of a strong temperature gradient and westerlies influences air pressure, wind patterns, and storm tracks. The strong temperature contrast between sea ice and open water in the northern part sets the stage for polar lows, as well as heat and moisture exchange between ocean and atmosphere. Glaciers on the Arctic islands generate icebergs, which may drift in the Barents Sea subject to wind and ocean currents.The land encircling the Barents Sea includes regions with permafrost and tundra. Precipitation comes mainly from synoptic storms and weather fronts; it falls as snow in the winter and rain in the summer. The land area is snow-covered in winter, and rivers in the region drain the rainwater and meltwater into the Barents Sea. Pronounced natural variations in the seasonal weather statistics can be linked to variations in the polar jet stream and Rossby waves, which result in a clustering of storm activity, blocking high-pressure systems. The Barents region is subject to rapid climate change due to a “polar amplification,” and observations from Svalbard suggest that the past warming trend ranks among the strongest recorded on earth. The regional change is reinforced by a number of feedback effects, such as receding sea-ice cover and influx of mild moist air from the south.

scholarly journals Climate-driven benthic invertebrate activity and biogeochemical functioning across the Barents Sea polar front

2020 ◽  
Vol 378 (2181) ◽  
pp. 20190365 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Solan ◽  
Ellie R. Ward ◽  
Christina L. Wood ◽  
Adam J. Reed ◽  
Laura J. Grange ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ecosystem Functioning ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Benthic Invertebrate ◽  
Polar Front ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Nutrient Concentrations ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Biological Communities ◽  
The Barents Sea

Arctic marine ecosystems are undergoing rapid correction in response to multiple expressions of climate change, but the consequences of altered biodiversity for the sequestration, transformation and storage of nutrients are poorly constrained. Here, we determine the bioturbation activity of sediment-dwelling invertebrate communities over two consecutive summers that contrasted in sea-ice extent along a transect intersecting the polar front. We find a clear separation in community composition at the polar front that marks a transition in the type and amount of bioturbation activity, and associated nutrient concentrations, sufficient to distinguish a southern high from a northern low. While patterns in community structure reflect proximity to arctic versus boreal conditions, our observations strongly suggest that faunal activity is moderated by seasonal variations in sea ice extent that influence food supply to the benthos. Our observations help visualize how a climate-driven reorganization of the Barents Sea benthic ecosystem may be expressed, and emphasize the rapidity with which an entire region could experience a functional transformation. As strong benthic-pelagic coupling is typical across most parts of the Arctic shelf, the response of these ecosystems to a changing climate will have important ramifications for ecosystem functioning and the trophic structure of the entire food web. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The changing Arctic Ocean: consequences for biological communities, biogeochemical processes and ecosystem functioning'.

Redescription of Admete sadko Gorbunov, 1946 (Gastropoda: Cancellariidae)

Zootaxa ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 4508 (3) ◽  
pp. 427
Author(s):  
IVAN O. NEKHAEV
Keyword(s):  
Barents Sea ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
Bering Strait ◽  
Arctic Seas ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
The Family

Five species of the family Cancellariidae are currently known from Arctic seas: Admete contabulata Friele, 1879, A. clivicola Høisæter, 2011, A. solida (Aurivillius, 1885), A. viridula (Fabricius, 1780) and Iphinopsis inflata (Friele, 1879) (Golikov et al. 2001; Kantor & Sysoev 2006; Høisæter 2011). Admete contabulata, A. clivicola and Iphinopsis inflata are only known from the Atlantic part of the Arctic, i.e. Norwegian and southwestern Barents seas (Høisæter 2011; Nekhaev 2014). Admete solida has been rarely reported since its first description from the Bering Strait (Sysoev & Kantor 2002), however Nekhaev & Krol (2017) recently reported a specimen from the eastern region of the Barents Sea that is similar in morphology to the holotype of this species. Admete viridula is the only representative of Admete reported from Siberian seas (Golikov et al. 2001; Lyubin 2003; Kantor & Sysoev, 2006). 

The Role of Moist Intrusions in Winter Arctic Warming and Sea Ice Decline

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (12) ◽  
pp. 4473-4485 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cian Woods ◽  
Rodrigo Caballero
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Strong Inversion ◽  
Ice Concentration

Abstract This paper examines the trajectories followed by intense intrusions of moist air into the Arctic polar region during autumn and winter and their impact on local temperature and sea ice concentration. It is found that the vertical structure of the warming associated with moist intrusions is bottom amplified, corresponding to a transition of local conditions from a “cold clear” state with a strong inversion to a “warm opaque” state with a weaker inversion. In the marginal sea ice zone of the Barents Sea, the passage of an intrusion also causes a retreat of the ice margin, which persists for many days after the intrusion has passed. The authors find that there is a positive trend in the number of intrusion events crossing 70°N during December and January that can explain roughly 45% of the surface air temperature and 30% of the sea ice concentration trends observed in the Barents Sea during the past two decades.

scholarly journals Observations of surface momentum exchange over the marginal-ice-zone and recommendations for its parameterization

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (19) ◽  
pp. 26609-26660 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. D. Elvidge ◽  
I. A. Renfrew ◽  
A. I. Weiss ◽  
I. M. Brooks ◽  
T. A. Lachlan-Cope ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Roughness ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Momentum Exchange ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Aircraft Observations ◽  
Marginal Ice Zone ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Ice Fraction

Abstract. Comprehensive aircraft observations are used to characterise surface roughness over the Arctic marginal ice zone (MIZ) and consequently make recommendations for the parameterization of surface momentum exchange in the MIZ. These observations were gathered in the Barents Sea and Fram Strait from two aircraft as part of the Aerosol–Cloud Coupling And Climate Interactions in the Arctic (ACCACIA) project. They represent a doubling of the total number of such aircraft observations currently available over the Arctic MIZ. The eddy covariance method is used to derive estimates of the 10 m neutral drag coefficient (CDN10) from turbulent wind velocity measurements, and a novel method using albedo and surface temperature is employed to derive ice fraction. Peak surface roughness is found at ice fractions in the range 0.6 to 0.8 (with a mean interquartile range in CDN10 of 1.25 to 2.85 × 10−3). CDN10 as a function of ice fraction is found to be well approximated by the negatively skewed distribution provided by a leading parameterization scheme (Lüpkes et al., 2012) tailored for sea ice drag over the MIZ in which the two constituent components of drag – skin and form drag – are separately quantified. Current parameterization schemes used in the weather and climate models are compared with our results and the majority are found to be physically unjustified and unrepresentative. The Lüpkes et al. (2012) scheme is recommended in a computationally simple form, with adjusted parameter settings. A good agreement is found to hold for subsets of the data from different locations despite differences in sea ice conditions. Ice conditions in the Barents Sea, characterised by small, unconsolidated ice floes, are found to be associated with higher CDN10 values – especially at the higher ice fractions – than those of Fram Strait, where typically larger, smoother floes are observed. Consequently, the important influence of sea ice morphology and floe size on surface roughness is recognised, and improvement in the representation of this in parameterization schemes is suggested for future study.

The shallowing surface temperature inversions in the Arctic

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-30
Author(s):  
Lin Zhang ◽  
Minghu Ding ◽  
Tingfeng Dou ◽  
Yi Huang ◽  
Junmei Lv ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Atmospheric Stability ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
Temperature Inversions

AbstractTemperature inversion plays an important role in various physical processes by affecting the atmospheric stability, regulating the development of clouds and fog, and controlling the transport of heat and moisture fluxes. In the past few decades, previous studies have analyzed the spatiotemporal variability of Arctic inversions, but few studies have investigated changes in temperature inversions. In this study, the changes in the depth of Arctic inversions in the mid-21st century are projected based on a 30-member ensemble from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project. The ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses were employed to verify the model results. The CESM-LE can adequately reproduce the spatial distribution and trends of present-day inversion depth in the Arctic, and the simulation is better in winter. The mean inversion depth in the CESM-LE is slightly underestimated, and the discrepancy is less than 11 hPa within a reasonable range. The model results show that during the mid-21st century, the inversion depth will strongly decrease in autumn and slightly decrease in winter. The shallowing of inversion is most obvious over the Arctic Ocean, and the maximum decrease is over 65 hPa in the Pacific sector in autumn. In contrast, the largest decrease in the inversion depth, which is more than 45 hPa, occurs over the Barents Sea in winter. Moreover, the area where the inversion shallows is consistent with the area where the sea ice is retreating, indicating that the inversion depth over the Arctic Ocean in autumn and winter is likely regulated by the sea ice extent through modulating surface heat fluxes.

Transformation of Atlantic Water in the Barents Sea in winter: overview of “Transarctika-2019” cruise results

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Ivanov ◽  
Ivan Frolov ◽  
Kirill Filchuk
Keyword(s):  
Characteristic Feature ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Water Column ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Atlantic Water ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Open Sea ◽  
The Arctic Ocean

<p>In the recent few years the topic of accelerated sea ice loss, and related changes in the vertical structure of water masses in the East-Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean, including the Barents Sea and the western part of the Nansen Basin, has been in the foci of multiple studies. This region even earned the name the “Arctic warming hotspot”, due to the extreme retreat of sea ice and clear signs of change in the vertical hydrographic structure from the Arctic type to the sub-Arctic one. A gradual increase in temperature and salinity in this area has been observed since the mid-2000s. This trend is hypothetically associated with a general decrease in the volume of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, which leads to a decrease of ice import in the Barents Sea, salinization, weakening of density stratification, intensification of vertical mixing and an increase of heat and salt fluxes from the deep to the upper mixed layer. The result of such changes is a further reduction of sea ice, i.e. implementation of positive feedback, which is conventionally refereed as the “atlantification. Due to the fact that the Barents Sea is a relatively shallow basin, the process of atlantification might develop here much faster than in the deep Nansen Basin. Thus, theoretically, the hydrographic regime in the northern part of the Barents Sea may rapidly transform to a “Nordic Seas – wise”, a characteristic feature of which is the year-round absence of the ice cover with debatable consequences for the climate and ecosystem of the region and adjacent land areas. Due to the obvious reasons, historical observations in the Barents Sea mostly cover the summer season. Here we present a rare oceanographic data, collected during the late winter - early spring in 2019. Measurements were occupied at four sequential oceanographic surveys from the boundary between the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea – the so called Barents Sea opening to the boundary between the Barents Sea and the Kara Sea. Completed hydrological sections allowed us to estimate the contribution of the winter processes in the Atlantic Water transformation at the end of the winter season. Characteristic feature of the observed transformation is the homogenization of the near-to-bottom part of the water column with remaining stratification in the upper part. A probable explanation of such changes is the dominance of shelf convection and cascading of dense water over the open sea convection. In this case, complete homogenization of the water column does not occur, since convection in the open sea is impeded by salinity and density stratification, which is maintained by melting of the imported sea ice in the relatively warm water. The study was supported by RFBR grant # 18-05-60083.</p>

scholarly journals The Arctic Ocean Seasonal Cycles of Heat and Freshwater Fluxes: Observation-Based Inverse Estimates

2018 ◽  
Vol 48 (9) ◽  
pp. 2029-2055 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takamasa Tsubouchi ◽  
Sheldon Bacon ◽  
Yevgeny Aksenov ◽  
Alberto C. Naveira Garabato ◽  
Agnieszka Beszczynska-Möller ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Water Layer ◽  
Atlantic Water ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Bering Strait ◽  
The Arctic Ocean

AbstractThis paper presents the first estimate of the seasonal cycle of ocean and sea ice heat and freshwater (FW) fluxes around the Arctic Ocean boundary. The ocean transports are estimated primarily using 138 moored instruments deployed in September 2005–August 2006 across the four main Arctic gateways: Davis, Fram, and Bering Straits, and the Barents Sea Opening (BSO). Sea ice transports are estimated from a sea ice assimilation product. Monthly velocity fields are calculated with a box inverse model that enforces mass and salt conservation. The volume transports in the four gateways in the period (annual mean ± 1 standard deviation) are −2.1 ± 0.7 Sv in Davis Strait, −1.1 ± 1.2 Sv in Fram Strait, 2.3 ± 1.2 Sv in the BSO, and 0.7 ± 0.7 Sv in Bering Strait (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1). The resulting ocean and sea ice heat and FW fluxes are 175 ± 48 TW and 204 ± 85 mSv, respectively. These boundary fluxes accurately represent the annual means of the relevant surface fluxes. The ocean heat transport variability derives from velocity variability in the Atlantic Water layer and temperature variability in the upper part of the water column. The ocean FW transport variability is dominated by Bering Strait velocity variability. The net water mass transformation in the Arctic entails a freshening and cooling of inflowing waters by 0.62 ± 0.23 in salinity and 3.74° ± 0.76°C in temperature, respectively, and a reduction in density by 0.23 ± 0.20 kg m−3. The boundary heat and FW fluxes provide a benchmark dataset for the validation of numerical models and atmospheric reanalysis products.

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