Rapid growth of the US wildland-urban interface raises wildfire risk

The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is the area where houses and wildland vegetation meet or intermingle, and where wildfire problems are most pronounced. Here we report that the WUI in the United States grew rapidly from 1990 to 2010 in terms of both number of new houses (from 30.8 to 43.4 million; 41% growth) and land area (from 581,000 to 770,000 km2; 33% growth), making it the fastest-growing land use type in the conterminous United States. The vast majority of new WUI areas were the result of new housing (97%), not related to an increase in wildland vegetation. Within the perimeter of recent wildfires (1990–2015), there were 286,000 houses in 2010, compared with 177,000 in 1990. Furthermore, WUI growth often results in more wildfire ignitions, putting more lives and houses at risk. Wildfire problems will not abate if recent housing growth trends continue.

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How emissions, climate, and land use change will impact mid-century air quality over the United States: a focus on effects at National Parks

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions ◽

10.5194/acpd-14-26495-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 14 (19) ◽

pp. 26495-26543 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

M. Val Martin ◽

C. L. Heald ◽

J.-F. Lamarque ◽

S. Tilmes ◽

L. K. Emmons ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Land Use ◽

Air Quality ◽

National Parks ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

The United States ◽

Western Us ◽

The Us ◽

Us Epa ◽

Surface O3

Abstract. We use a global coupled chemistry-climate-land model (CESM) to assess the integrated effect of climate, emissions and land use changes on annual surface O3 and PM2.5 on the United States with a focus on National Parks (NPs) and wilderness areas, using the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections. We show that, when stringent domestic emission controls are applied, air quality is predicted to improve across the US, except surface O3 over the western and central US under RCP8.5 conditions, where rising background ozone counteracts domestic emissions reductions. Under the RCP4.5, surface O3 is substantially reduced (about 5 ppb), with daily maximum 8 h averages below the primary US EPA NAAQS of 75 ppb (and even 65 ppb) in all the NPs. PM2.5 is significantly reduced in both scenarios (4 μg m−3; ~50%), with levels below the annual US EPA NAAQS of 12 μg m−3 across all the NPs; visibility is also improved (10–15 deciviews; >75 km in visibility range), although some parks over the western US (40–74% of total sites in the US) may not reach the 2050 target to restore visibility to natural conditions by 2064. We estimate that climate-driven increases in fire activity may dominate summertime PM2.5 over the western US, potentially offsetting the large PM2.5 reductions from domestic emission controls, and keeping visibility at present-day levels in many parks. Our study suggests that air quality in 2050 will be primarily controlled by anthropogenic emission patterns. However, climate and land use changes alone may lead to a substantial increase in surface O3 (2–3 ppb) with important consequences for O3 air quality and ecosystem degradation at the US NPs. Our study illustrates the need to consider the effects of changes in climate, vegetation, and fires in future air quality management and planning and emission policy making.

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How emissions, climate, and land use change will impact mid-century air quality over the United States: a focus on effects at national parks

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-15-2805-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 15 (5) ◽

pp. 2805-2823 ◽

Cited By ~ 57

Author(s):

M. Val Martin ◽

C. L. Heald ◽

J.-F. Lamarque ◽

S. Tilmes ◽

L. K. Emmons ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Land Use ◽

Air Quality ◽

National Parks ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

The United States ◽

Western Us ◽

The Us ◽

Emission Controls ◽

Surface O3

Abstract. We use a global coupled chemistry–climate–land model (CESM) to assess the integrated effect of climate, emissions and land use changes on annual surface O3 and PM2.5 in the United States with a focus on national parks (NPs) and wilderness areas, using the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections. We show that, when stringent domestic emission controls are applied, air quality is predicted to improve across the US, except surface O3 over the western and central US under RCP8.5 conditions, where rising background ozone counteracts domestic emission reductions. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, surface O3 is substantially reduced (about 5 ppb), with daily maximum 8 h averages below the primary US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) of 75 ppb (and even 65 ppb) in all the NPs. PM2.5 is significantly reduced in both scenarios (4 μg m−3; ~50%), with levels below the annual US EPA NAAQS of 12 μg m−3 across all the NPs; visibility is also improved (10–15 dv; >75 km in visibility range), although some western US parks with Class I status (40–74 % of total sites in the US) are still above the 2050 planned target level to reach the goal of natural visibility conditions by 2064. We estimate that climate-driven increases in fire activity may dominate summertime PM2.5 over the western US, potentially offsetting the large PM2.5 reductions from domestic emission controls, and keeping visibility at present-day levels in many parks. Our study indicates that anthropogenic emission patterns will be important for air quality in 2050. However, climate and land use changes alone may lead to a substantial increase in surface O3 (2–3 ppb) with important consequences for O3 air quality and ecosystem degradation at the US NPs. Our study illustrates the need to consider the effects of changes in climate, vegetation, and fires in future air quality management and planning and emission policy making.

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United States

Secularity and Science ◽

10.1093/oso/9780190926755.003.0003 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 25-53

Author(s):

Elaine Howard Ecklund ◽

David R. Johnson ◽

Brandon Vaidyanathan ◽

Kirstin R. W. Matthews ◽

Steven W. Lewis ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

At Risk ◽

Scientific Community ◽

Scientific Work ◽

The United States ◽

Religion And Science ◽

Religious People ◽

The Us ◽

Beneficial Impact

US scientists believe that the US religious public is generally antiscience. However the views of religious Americans are much more nuanced and religious Americans are often more open to science and scientific issues than scientists would believe. Nevertheless, scientists’ perceptions of the religious public in the United States shape their views of religion and science. Scientists who are religious generally keep their science and their faith separate. Religious scientists feel they are at risk of discrimination within the scientific community, because of existing stereotypes about religious people. Religious scientists are often influenced by their faith when choosing scientific work that they think will have a beneficial impact on society.

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In the Line of Fire: Consequences of Human-Ignited Wildfires to Homes in the U.S. (1992–2015)

Fire ◽

10.3390/fire3030050 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 3 (3) ◽

pp. 50

Author(s):

Nathan Mietkiewicz ◽

Jennifer K. Balch ◽

Tania Schoennagel ◽

Stefan Leyk ◽

Lise A. St. Denis ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Confidence Interval ◽

The United States ◽

Land Area ◽

Wildland Urban Interface ◽

Residential Homes ◽

Annual Basis ◽

The U.S

With climate-driven increases in wildfires in the western U.S., it is imperative to understand how the risk to homes is also changing nationwide. Here, we quantify the number of homes threatened, suppression costs, and ignition sources for 1.6 million wildfires in the United States (U.S.; 1992–2015). Human-caused wildfires accounted for 97% of the residential homes threatened (within 1 km of a wildfire) and nearly a third of suppression costs. This study illustrates how the wildland-urban interface (WUI), which accounts for only a small portion of U.S. land area (10%), acts as a major source of fires, almost exclusively human-started. Cumulatively (1992–2015), just over one million homes were within human-caused wildfire perimeters in the WUI, where communities are built within flammable vegetation. An additional 58.8 million homes were within one kilometer across the 24-year record. On an annual basis in the WUI (1999–2014), an average of 2.5 million homes (2.2–2.8 million, 95% confidence interval) were threatened by human-started wildfires (within the perimeter and up to 1-km away). The number of residential homes in the WUI grew by 32 million from 1990–2015. The convergence of warmer, drier conditions and greater development into flammable landscapes is leaving many communities vulnerable to human-caused wildfires. These areas are a high priority for policy and management efforts that aim to reduce human ignitions and promote resilience to future fires, particularly as the number of residential homes in the WUI grew across this record and are expected to continue to grow in coming years.

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Rapid displacement of SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 by B.1.617.2 and P.1 in the United States

10.1101/2021.06.20.21259195 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Alexandre Bolze ◽

Elizabeth T Cirulli ◽

Shishi Luo ◽

Simon White ◽

Tyler Cassens ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Growth Rate ◽

Rapid Growth ◽

The United States ◽

Vaccination Rate ◽

The Us ◽

Viral Sequencing

The SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern B.1.617.2 displaced B.1.1.7 as the dominant variant in England and other countries. This study aimed to determine whether B.1.617.2 was also displacing B.1.1.7 in the United States. We analyzed PCR testing results and viral sequencing results of samples collected across the United States, and showed that B.1.1.7 was rapidly being displaced and is no longer responsible for the majority of new cases. The percentage of SARS-CoV-2 positive cases that are B.1.1.7 dropped from 70% in April 2021 to 42% in just 6 weeks. Our analysis showed rapid growth of variants B.1.617.2 and P.1 as the primary drivers for this displacement. Currently, the growth rate of B.1.617.2 was higher than P.1 in the US (0.61 vs. 0.22), which is consistent with reports from other countries. Lastly, we showed that B.1.617.2 was growing faster in counties with a lower vaccination rate.

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Historical Range, Current Distribution, and Conservation Status of the Swift Fox, Vulpes velox, in North America

The Canadian Field-Naturalist ◽

10.22621/cfn.v123i4.1004 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 123 (4) ◽

pp. 346 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Marsha A. Sovada ◽

Robert O. Woodward ◽

Lawrence D. Igl

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Land Use ◽

North America ◽

Current Distribution ◽

The United States ◽

Vulpes Velox ◽

Swift Fox ◽

European Settlement ◽

The Us ◽

Historical Range

The Swift Fox (Vulpes velox) was once common in the shortgrass and mixed-grass prairies of the Great Plains of North America. The species' abundance declined and its distribution retracted following European settlement of the plains. By the late 1800s, the species had been largely extirpated from the northern portion of its historical range, and its populations were acutely depleted elsewhere. Swift Fox populations have naturally recovered somewhat since the 1950s, but overall abundance and distribution remain below historical levels. In a 1995 assessment of the species' status under the US Endangered Species Act, the US Fish and Wildlife Service concluded that a designation of threatened or endangered was warranted, but the species was "precluded from listing by higher listing priorities." A major revelation of the 1995 assessment was the recognition that information useful for determining population status was limited. Fundamental information was missing, including an accurate estimate of the species' distribution before European settlement and an estimate of the species' current distribution and trends. The objectives of this paper are to fill those gaps in knowledge. Historical records were compiled and, in combination with knowledge of the habitat requirements of the species, the historical range of the Swift Fox is estimated to be approximately 1.5 million km2. Using data collected between 2001 and 2006, the species' current distribution is estimated to be about 44% of its historical range in the United States and 3% in Canada. Under current land use, approximately 39% of the species' historical range contains grassland habitats with very good potential for Swift Fox occupation and another 10% supports grasslands with characteristics that are less preferred (e.g., a sparse shrub component or taller stature) but still suitable. Additionally, land use on at least 25% of the historical range supports dryland farming, which can be suitable for Swift Fox occupation. In the United States, approximately 52% of highest quality habitats currently available are occupied by Swift Foxes.

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Statelessness in the United States: A Study to Estimate and Profile the US Stateless Population

Journal on Migration and Human Security ◽

10.1177/2331502420907028 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 (2) ◽

pp. 150-213

Author(s):

Donald Kerwin ◽

Daniela Alulema ◽

Michael Nicholson ◽

Robert Warren

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

At Risk ◽

New York ◽

Legal Status ◽

The United States ◽

Census Bureau ◽

Executive Summary ◽

Public And Private ◽

Data Limitations ◽

The Us

Executive Summary In October 2017, the Center for Migration Studies of New York (CMS) initiated a study to map the stateless population in the United States. This study sought to: Develop a methodology to estimate the US stateless population; Provide provisional estimates and profiles of persons who are potentially stateless or potentially at risk of statelessness in the United States; Create a research methodology that encouraged stateless persons to come forward and join a growing network of persons committed to educating the public on and pursuing solutions to this problem; and Establish an empirical basis for public and private stakeholders to develop services, programs, and policy interventions to prevent and reduce statelessness (UNHCR 2014g, 6), and to safeguard the rights of stateless persons ( UNHCR 2014d ). This report describes a unique methodology to produce estimates and set forth the characteristics of US residents who are potentially stateless or potentially at risk of statelessness. The methodology relies on American Community Survey (ACS) data from the US Census Bureau, supplemented by very limited administrative data on stateless refugees and asylum seekers. 1 As part of the study, CMS developed extensive, well-documented profiles of non–US citizen residents who are potentially stateless or potentially at risk of statelessness. It then used these profiles to query ACS data to develop provisional estimates and determine the characteristics of these populations. The report finds that the population in the United States that is potentially stateless or potentially at risk of statelessness is larger and more diverse than previously assumed, albeit with the caveat that severe data limitations make it impossible to provide precise estimates of this population. Stateless determinations require individual screening, which the study could not undertake. Individuals deemed potentially stateless or potentially at risk of statelessness in this report may in fact have been able to secure nationality in their home countries or in third countries. They may also be on a path to citizenship in the United States, although nobody in CMS’s estimates had yet to obtain US citizenship. According to CMS’s analysis, roughly 218,000 US residents are potentially stateless or potentially at risk of statelessness. These groups live in all 50 states, 2 with the largest populations in California (20,600), New York (18,500), Texas (15,200), Ohio (13,200), Minnesota (11,200), Illinois (8,600), Pennsylvania (8,200), Wisconsin (7,300), Georgia (6,600), and Virginia (6,500). The report recommends ways to improve data collection and, thus, develop better estimates in the future. It also lifts up the voices and challenges of stateless persons, and outlines steps to reduce statelessness and safeguard the rights of stateless persons in the United States. As it stands, the paucity of reliable federal data on the stateless, the lack of a designated path to legal status for them under US law, and the indifference of government agencies contribute to the vulnerability and isolation of these populations.

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Understanding the Role of Planners in Wildfire Preparedness and Mitigation

ISRN Forestry ◽

10.5402/2012/253028 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 2012 ◽

pp. 1-12 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Menka Bihari ◽

Elisabeth M. Hamin ◽

Robert L. Ryan

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Land Use ◽

Emergency Management ◽

Local Governments ◽

Regulatory Authority ◽

The United States ◽

Federal Agencies ◽

Residential Areas ◽

Wildland Urban Interface

As wildfires affect more residential areas across the United States, the need for collaboration between land managers, federal agencies, neighbours, and local governments has become more pressing especially in the context of the wildland-urban interface. Previous research has not focused much on land-use planners’ role in wildfire mitigation. This paper provides information on how land-use planners can assist communities in learning to live with wildfire risk through planning, preparedness, and mitigation efforts in the wildland-urban interface (WUI). Based on interviews with land-use planners, forest planners, and local emergency management officials, we identified a range of tools that could be used for improving wildfire preparedness and mitigation initiatives in the WUI, but also found that planners felt that they lacked the regulatory authority to use these tenaciously. The paper also identifies a range of possible actions that would contribute towards safer building practices in the interface communities.

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Combatting Coronavirus: The Case for Improved Global Vaccination Systems and Cooperation

10.51627/pghr.2020.08.00015 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Momin Ahmed ◽

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

At Risk ◽

World Health Organization ◽

The United States ◽

World Health ◽

The Us ◽

The World ◽

Health Organization

1979, the year polio was eradicated from the United States. But more than 40 years later, this disease is still infecting children in countries like Afghanistan and Pakistan. While we are close to globally eradicating the disease (95 total cases reported in 2019), the fact that it has taken more than 4 decades to get to this point is not only disheartening but embarrassing (Martin, 2019). In addition, polio is one of several diseases that have been eradicated in the US, but not worldwide. Rubella, measles, and diphtheria are just a few examples of diseases that still affect children worldwide (Vanderslott et al., 2013). According to the World Health Organization (WHO), 20 million children worldwide remain under/un vaccinated and at risk for fatal diseases (WHO, 2020). Although this number is declining yearly, it is still a figure that cannot be ignored and serves as an indication for the need of improved global vaccination systems.

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The effects of global change upon United States air quality

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-15-12645-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 15 (21) ◽

pp. 12645-12665 ◽

Cited By ~ 19

Author(s):

R. Gonzalez-Abraham ◽

S. H. Chung ◽

J. Avise ◽

B. Lamb ◽

E. P. Salathé ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Land Use ◽

Particulate Matter ◽

Air Quality ◽

The United States ◽

Biogenic Emissions ◽

Anthropogenic Emissions ◽

The Us ◽

The Impact ◽

Global Emissions

Abstract. To understand more fully the effects of global changes on ambient concentrations of ozone and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in the United States (US), we conducted a comprehensive modeling effort to evaluate explicitly the effects of changes in climate, biogenic emissions, land use and global/regional anthropogenic emissions on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations and composition. Results from the ECHAM5 global climate model driven with the A1B emission scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to provide regional meteorological fields. We developed air quality simulations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) chemical transport model for two nested domains with 220 and 36 km horizontal grid cell resolution for a semi-hemispheric domain and a continental United States (US) domain, respectively. The semi-hemispheric domain was used to evaluate the impact of projected global emissions changes on US air quality. WRF meteorological fields were used to calculate current (2000s) and future (2050s) biogenic emissions using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN). For the semi-hemispheric domain CMAQ simulations, present-day global emissions inventories were used and projected to the 2050s based on the IPCC A1B scenario. Regional anthropogenic emissions were obtained from the US Environmental Protection Agency National Emission Inventory 2002 (EPA NEI2002) and projected to the future using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy system model assuming a business as usual scenario that extends current decade emission regulations through 2050. Our results suggest that daily maximum 8 h average ozone (DM8O) concentrations will increase in a range between 2 to 12 parts per billion (ppb) across most of the continental US. The highest increase occurs in the South, Central and Midwest regions of the US due to increases in temperature, enhanced biogenic emissions and changes in land use. The model predicts an average increase of 1–6 ppb in DM8O due to projected increase in global emissions of ozone precursors. The effects of these factors are only partially offset by reductions in DM8O associated with decreasing US anthropogenic emissions. Increases in PM2.5 levels between 4 and 10 μg m−3 in the Northeast, Southeast, Midwest and South regions are mostly a result of increase in primary anthropogenic particulate matter (PM), enhanced biogenic emissions and land use changes. Changes in boundary conditions shift the composition but do not alter overall simulated PM2.5 mass concentrations.

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