scholarly journals Rainfall variations in central Indo-Pacific over the past 2,700 y

2019 ◽  
Vol 116 (35) ◽  
pp. 17201-17206 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liangcheng Tan ◽  
Chuan-Chou Shen ◽  
Ludvig Löwemark ◽  
Sakonvan Chawchai ◽  
R. Lawrence Edwards ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Warm Period ◽  
Tropical Rainfall ◽  
The Past ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
Continuous Record ◽  
Southern Central ◽  
Drying Trend ◽  
Rainfall Variations

Tropical rainfall variability is closely linked to meridional shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and zonal movements of the Walker circulation. The characteristics and mechanisms of tropical rainfall variations on centennial to decadal scales are, however, still unclear. Here, we reconstruct a replicated stalagmite-based 2,700-y-long, continuous record of rainfall for the deeply convective northern central Indo-Pacific (NCIP) region. Our record reveals decreasing rainfall in the NCIP over the past 2,700 y, similar to other records from the northern tropics. Notable centennial- to decadal-scale dry climate episodes occurred in both the NCIP and the southern central Indo-Pacific (SCIP) during the 20th century [Current Warm Period (CWP)] and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), resembling enhanced El Niño-like conditions. Further, we developed a 2,000-y-long ITCZ shift index record that supports an overall southward ITCZ shift in the central Indo-Pacific and indicates southward mean ITCZ positions during the early MWP and the CWP. As a result, the drying trend since the 20th century in the northern tropics is similar to that observed during the past warm period, suggesting that a possible anthropogenic forcing of rainfall remains indistinguishable from natural variability.

Tropical Rainfall Variability Accompanying Global Normal Mode Oscillations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takatoshi Sakazaki
Keyword(s):  
Normal Mode ◽  
Amazon Basin ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Normal Modes ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Phase Relationship ◽  
Moisture Flux ◽  
Tropical Rainfall ◽  
Zonal Wavenumber ◽  
Rainfall Variations

AbstractUsing global precipitation datasets (GSMaP, TRMM) and the latest reanalysis data (ERA5) we performed a comprehensive analysis of the tropical rainfall variability that accompanies global-scale, low-frequency normal modes: Rossby, Rossby-gravity and Kelvin modes. Cross spectral analysis and lag-regression analysis both showed that coherent rainfall variations accompany not only the wavenumber 1 gravest Rossby mode (“5 day” wave) but other low-frequency modes. The normal mode rainfall variations are enhanced in regions such as the Amazon basin, but also include circumglobally travelling structures with substantial amplitude over the open ocean. These results are remarkably consistent among the three datasets including even ERA5 rainfall data. The circumglobal rainfall signals may be considered primarily as a response to the normal mode dynamical variations. We found that the phase relationship between rainfall and dynamical field variability is strongly dependent on the type of mode and even on the zonal wavenumber. We suggest that this is explained by the difference in relative importance of two underlying processes: (1) moisture-flux convergence and (2) rainfall enhancement associated with adiabatic cooling. Our determined rainfall signals are the response to quasi-monochromatic, periodic waves that have a simple vertical structure and represent one special case of tropospheric wave-rainfall coupling. Implications for the mechanism of 12-hr rainfall oscillations believed to be forced by the atmospheric tide are also considered.

AD 550–600 Collapse at Teotihuacan

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew S. Lachniet ◽  
Juan Pablo Bernal-Uruchurtu
Keyword(s):  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Spring Discharge ◽  
Domestic Water ◽  
The Past ◽  
Sequence Of Events ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Population Sizes ◽  
Sierra Madre Del Sur ◽  
Rainfall Variations ◽  
Monsoon Strength

We analyze a 2400-year rainfall reconstruction from an ultra-high-resolution absolutely-dated stalagmite (JX-6) from southwestern Mexico (Lachniet et al., 2012). Oxygen isotope variations correlate strongly to rainfall amount in the Mexico City area since 1870 CE, and for the wider southwestern Mexico region since 1948, allowing us to quantitatively reconstruct rainfall variability for the Basin of Mexico and Sierra Madre del Sur for the past 2400 years. Because oxygen isotopes integrate rainfall variations over broad geographic regions, our data suggest substantial variations in Mesoamerican monsoon strength over the past two millennia. As a result of low age uncertainties (≤ 11 yr), our stalagmite paleoclimate reconstruction allows us to place robust ages on past rainfall variations with a resolution an order of magnitude more precise than archeological dates associated with societal change. We relate our new rainfall reconstruction to the sequence of events at Teotihuacan (Millon, 1967; Cowgill, 2015a) and to other pre-Colombian civilizations in Mesoamerica. We observe a centuries long drying trend that culminated in peak drought conditions in ca. 750 CE related to a weakening monsoon, which may have been a stressor on Mesoamerican societies. Teotihuacan is an ideal location to test for links between climate change and society, because it was located in a semi-arid highland valley with limited permanent water sources, which relied upon spring fed irrigation to ensure a reliable maize harvest (Sanders, 1977). The city of Teotihuacan was one of the largest Mesoamerican cities, which apparently reached population sizes of 80,000 to 100,000 inhabitants by AD 300 (Cowgill, 1997; 2015a). Following the “Great Fire”, which dates approximately to AD 550, population decreased to lower levels and many buildings were abandoned (Cowgill, 2015). Because of the apparent reliance on rainwater capture (Linn é, 2003) and spring-fed agriculture in the Teotihuacan valley to ensure food security and drinking water, food production and domestic water supplies should have been sensitive to rainfall variations that recharge the surficial aquifer that sustained spring discharge prior recent groundwater extraction.

Indian Monsoon Rainfall Variability and associated Climatic forcings in the last two millennia inferred by a Stalagmite from the peninsular India

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naveen Gandhi ◽  
Phannindra Reddy A. ◽  
Raghavan Krishnan ◽  
Madhusudan G. Yadava
Keyword(s):  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Indian Subcontinent ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Warm Period ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Peninsular India ◽  
Rainfall Variations ◽  
The Last Two Millennia

<p>We present high temporal (near-annually) resolved δ<sup>18</sup>O values from absolutely dated stalagmite record that represents the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall variations for the Indian subcontinent spanning from 207 AD to 2014 AD. This rainfall reconstruction shows ISM varaitions for four major global climatic periods viz., Roman Warm Period (RWP), Dark Ages Cold Period (DACP), Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA). Cave records from different patrs of the sub-continent synchronously show enhanced precipitation during DACP. This wet period was forced by Solar-induced El-NiNo Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Tibetan Plateau Temperature. Cliamtic conditions were wetter during LIA than that during MWP, as the former witnessed more number of wet monsoon years. However, MWP witnessed the strongest and the weakest monsoon years in the last two millennia. The direct influence of Soalr activity on the position of Inter Tropical Convergance zone (ITCZ) might have caused the observed ISM variability of MWP. Altough ISM shows largest variability during MWP, the overall monsoon state was moving towards wetter conditions, forced by ENSO. Solar induced forcings on ENSO influenced ISM during LIA. Our results suggest of non-stationary dynamical forcings over ISM during different periods in the last two millennia.</p>

scholarly journals Supporting Restoration Decisions through Integration of Tree-Ring and Modeling Data: Reconstructing Flow and Salinity in the San Francisco Estuary over the Past Millennium

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 2139
Author(s):  
Paul H. Hutton ◽  
David M. Meko ◽  
Sujoy B. Roy
Keyword(s):  
San Francisco ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
San Francisco Estuary ◽  
Salinity Intrusion ◽  
Estuarine Ecosystem ◽  
Freshwater Flow ◽  
The Past ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
Past Millennium

This work presents updated reconstructions of watershed runoff to San Francisco Estuary from tree-ring data to AD 903, coupled with models relating runoff to freshwater flow to the estuary and salinity intrusion. We characterize pre-development freshwater flow and salinity conditions in the estuary over the past millennium and compare this characterization with contemporary conditions to better understand the magnitude and seasonality of changes over this time. This work shows that the instrumented flow record spans the range of runoff patterns over the past millennium (averaged over 5, 10, 20 and 100 years), and thus serves as a reasonable basis for planning-level evaluations of historical hydrologic conditions in the estuary. Over annual timescales we show that, although median freshwater flow to the estuary has not changed significantly, it has been more variable over the past century compared to pre-development flow conditions. We further show that the contemporary period is generally associated with greater spring salinity intrusion and lesser summer–fall salinity intrusion relative to the pre-development period. Thus, salinity intrusion in summer and fall months was a common occurrence under pre-development conditions and has been moderated in the contemporary period due to the operations of upstream reservoirs, which were designed to hold winter and spring runoff for release in summer and fall. This work also confirms a dramatic decadal-scale hydrologic shift in the watershed from very wet to very dry conditions during the late 19th and early 20th centuries; while not unprecedented, these shifts have been seen only a few times in the past millennium. This shift resulted in an increase in salinity intrusion in the first three decades of the 20th century, as documented through early records. Population growth and extensive watershed modification during this period exacerbated this underlying hydrologic shift. Putting this shift in the context of other anthropogenic drivers is important in understanding the historical response of the estuary and in setting salinity targets for estuarine restoration. By characterizing the long-term behavior of San Francisco Estuary, this work supports decision-making in the State of California related to flow and salinity management for restoration of the estuarine ecosystem.

Modulation of the relationship between summer temperatures in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau and Arctic over the past millennium by external forcings

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Feng Shi ◽  
Anmin Duan ◽  
Qiuzhen Yin ◽  
John T Bruun ◽  
Cunde Xiao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Warm Period ◽  
Temperature Correlation ◽  
The Past ◽  
External Forcings ◽  
Centennial Variation ◽  
Summer Temperatures ◽  
Past Millennium

Abstract The Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau and Arctic both have an important influence on global climate, but the correlation between climate variations in these two regions remains unclear. Here we reconstructed and compared the summer temperature anomalies over the past 1,120 yr (900–2019 CE) in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau and Arctic. The temperature correlation during the past millennium in these two regions has a distinct centennial variation caused by volcanic eruptions. Furthermore, the abrupt weak-to-strong transition in the temperature correlation during the sixteenth century could be analogous to this type of transition during the Modern Warm Period. The former was forced by volcanic eruptions, while the latter was controlled by changes in greenhouse gases. This implies that anthropogenic, as opposed to natural, forcing has acted to amplify the teleconnection between the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau and Arctic during the Modern Warm Period.

Response of Siberian trees to climatic changes over the past 1500 years

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olga Churakova (Sidorova) ◽  
Marina Fonti ◽  
Rolf Siegwolf ◽  
Tatyana Trushkina ◽  
Eugene Vaganov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Medieval Warm Period ◽  
Warm Period ◽  
Taimyr Peninsula ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Northeastern Part ◽  
The Past ◽  
Tree Ring Cellulose

<p>We use an interdisciplinary approach combining stable isotopes in tree rings, pollen data, ice cores from temperature-limited environment in the Siberian north and developed a comprehensive description of the climatic changes over the past 1500 years. We found that the Climatic Optimum Period was warmer and drier compared to the Medieval one, but rather similar to the recent period. Our results indicate that the Medieval Warm period in the Taimyr Peninsula started earlier and was wetter compared to the northeastern part of Siberia (northeastern Yakutia). Summer precipitation reconstruction obtained from carbon isotopes in tree-ring cellulose from Taimyr Peninsula significantly correlated with the pollen data of the Lama Lake (Andreev et al. 2004) and oxygen isotopes of the ice core from Severnaya Zemlya (Opel et al. 2013) recording wetter climate conditions during the Medieval Warm period compared to the northeastern part of Siberia. Common large-scale climate variability was confirmed by significant relationship between oxygen isotope data in tree-ring cellulose from the Taimyr Peninsula and northeastern Yakutia, and oxygen isotope ice core data from Severnaya Zemlja during the Medieval Warm period and the recent one. Finally, we showed that the recent warming on the Taimyr Peninsula is not unprecedented in the Siberian north. Similar climate conditions were recorded by stable isotopes in tree rings, pollen, and ice core data 6000 years ago. On the northeastern part of Siberia newly developed a 1500-year summer vapor pressure deficit (VPD) reconstruction showed, that VPD increased recently, but does not yet exceed the maximum values reconstructed during the Medieval Warm period. The most humid conditions in the northeastern part of Siberia were recorded in the Early Medieval period and during the Little Ice Age. However, the increasing VPD under elevated air temperature in the last decades affects the hydrological regime of these sensitive ecosystems by greater evapotranspiration rates. Further VPD increase will significantly affect Siberian forests most likely leading to drought even under additional access of thawed permafrost water.</p><p>This work was supported by the FP7-PEOPLE-IIF-2008 - Marie Curie Action: "International Incoming Fellowships" 235122 and "Reintegration Fellowships" 909122 “Climatic and environmental changes in the Eurasian Subarctic inferred from tree-ring and stable isotope chronologies for the past and recent periods” and the Government of Krasnoyarsk Kray and Russian Foundation for Basic Research and Krasnoyarsk Foundation 20-44-240001 “Adaptation of conifer forests on the north of the Krasnoyarsk region (Taimyr Peninsula) to climatic changes after extreme events over the past 1500 years“ awarded to Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova).</p>

Quantifying recent lake level changes in Patagonia (Argentina and Chile): Back to the future?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Ariztegui ◽  
Clément Pollier ◽  
Andrés Bilmes
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Lake Level ◽  
Satellite Images ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Tierra Del Fuego ◽  
Water Level Fluctuations ◽  
Lake Levels ◽  
The Past ◽  
Rainfall Variations ◽  
The Impact

<p>Lake levels in hydrologically closed-basins are very sensitive to climatically and/or anthropogenically triggered environmental changes. Their record through time can provide valuable information to forecast changes that can have substantial economical and societal impact.</p><p>Increasing precipitation in eastern Patagonia (Argentina) have been documented following years with strong El Niño (cold) events using historical and meteorological data. Quantifying changes in modern lake levels allow determining the impact of rainfall variations while contributing to anticipate the evolution of lacustrine systems over the next decades with expected fluctuations in ENSO frequencies. Laguna Carrilaufquen Grande is located in the intermontane Maquinchao Basin, Argentina. Its dimension fluctuates greatly, from 20 to 55 km<sup>2</sup> water surface area and an average water depth of 3 m. Several well-preserved gravelly beach ridges witness rainfall variations that can be compared to meteorological data and satellite images covering the last ~50 years. Our results show that in 2016 lake level was the lowest of the past 44 years whereas the maximum lake level was recorded in 1985 (+11.8 m above the current lake level) in a position 1.6 km to the east of the present shoreline. A five-years moving average rainfall record of the area was calculated smoothing the extreme annual events and correlated to the determined lake level fluctuations. The annual variation of lake levels was up to 1.2 m (e.g. 2014) whereas decadal variations related to humid-arid periods for the interval 2002 to 2016 were up to 9.4 m. These data are consistent with those from other monitored lakes and, thus, our approach opens up new perspectives to understand the historical water level fluctuations of lakes with non-available monitoring data.</p><p> </p><p>Laguna de los Cisnes in the Chilean section of the island of Tierra del Fuego, is a closed-lake presently divided into two sections of 2.2 and 11.9 km<sup>2</sup>, respectively. These two water bodies were united in the past forming a single larger lake. The lake level was  ca. 4 m higher than today as shown by clear shorelines and the outcropping of large Ca-rich microbialites. Historical data, aerial photographs and satellite images indicate that the most recent changes in lake level are the result of a massive decrease of water input during the last half of the 20<sup>th</sup> century triggered by an indiscriminate use of the incoming water for agricultural purposes. The spectacular outcropping of living and fossil microbialites is not only interesting from a scientific point of view but has also initiated the development of the site as a local touristic attraction. However, if the use of the incoming water for agriculture in the catchment remains unregulated the lake water level might drop dangerously and eventually the lake might fully desiccate.</p><p>These two examples illustrate how recent changes in lake level can be used to anticipate the near future of lakes. They show that ongoing climate changes along with the growing demand of natural resources have already started to impact lacustrine systems and this is likely to increase in the decades to come.</p>

Pacific Walker circulation variability during the last millennium reconstructed from a network of water isotope proxy records

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Georgina Falster ◽  
Bronwen Konecky ◽  
Sloan Coats ◽  
Samantha Stevenson ◽  
Midhun Madhavan
Keyword(s):  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Specific Information ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Climate Signal ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Global Precipitation

<p>Changes in the strength of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) can have a significant impact on global mean surface temperatures, as well as regional temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather events far beyond the tropical Pacific. Understanding PWC variability is therefore important for constraining future climate. But observational records of the PWC are short, and single-site proxy records for changes in the strength of the PWC during the last millennium offer contrasting interpretations. This leaves a critical gap in our understanding of PWC variability on the decadal to centennial timescales relevant to future climate change.</p><p>Falster et al. (in prep.) demonstrated that the PWC is strongly imprinted in modern global precipitation δ<sup>18</sup>O (δ<sup>18</sup>O<sub>P</sub>). This relationship arises via multiple complementary mechanisms, including but not limited to ENSO dynamics. We exploit this relationship to reconstruct changes in the strength of the PWC over the past millennium, using six different statistical and machine learning reconstruction methods in conjunction with a globally-distributed network of palaeo-δ<sup>18</sup>O<sub>P</sub> records (Konecky et al. 2020). Although δ<sup>18</sup>O<sub>P</sub> from a relatively small number of locations explains a large proportion of PWC variance in the calibration interval, we use a larger network of sites because larger networks are less susceptible to non-stationary teleconnections or non-signal biases than individual sites or smaller networks. </p><p>Preliminary results indicate that reconstructed PWC variability is coherent across methods, particularly for the past 400 years. Our reconstructions are also robust to both the calibration window used, and the particular palaeo-δ<sup>18</sup>O<sub>P</sub> records included in the reconstruction. This provides confidence that our network comprises sufficient proxy timeseries i.e. that we successfully extracted the common underlying climate signal (the PWC) from site-specific information inherent in individual palaeo-δ<sup>18</sup>O<sub>P</sub> records. Thus, we are confident that our reconstruction of changes in the strength of the PWC through the last millennium is robust, and it will therefore help to constrain the PWC’s long-term internal variability and sensitivity to external forcing.</p><p><br><strong>References:</strong></p><p>Falster, G. M., B. Konecky, M. Madhavan, S. Coats, S. Stevenson. 2021. “Imprint of the Pacific Walker circulation in global precipitation δ<sup>18</sup>O”. In preparation for <em>Journal of Climate</em>. </p><p>Konecky, B. L., N. P. McKay, O. V. Churakova (Sidorova), L. Comas-Bru, E. P. Dassié, K. L. DeLong, G. M. Falster, et al. 2020. “The Iso2k Database: A Global Compilation of Paleo-δ<sup>18</sup>O and δ<sup>2</sup>H Records to Aid Understanding of Common Era Climate.” <em>ESSD</em>. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-5.</p>

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document