scholarly journals Probabilistic reanalysis of storm surge extremes in Europe

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (4) ◽  
pp. 1877-1883 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco M. Calafat ◽  
Marta Marcos
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Values ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Tide Gauge Record ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Estimation Uncertainty

Extreme sea levels are a significant threat to life, property, and the environment. These threats are managed by coastal planers through the implementation of risk mitigation strategies. Central to such strategies is knowledge of extreme event probabilities. Typically, these probabilities are estimated by fitting a suitable distribution to the observed extreme data. Estimates, however, are often uncertain due to the small number of extreme events in the tide gauge record and are only available at gauged locations. This restricts our ability to implement cost-effective mitigation. A remarkable fact about sea-level extremes is the existence of spatial dependences, yet the vast majority of studies to date have analyzed extremes on a site-by-site basis. Here we demonstrate that spatial dependences can be exploited to address the limitations posed by the spatiotemporal sparseness of the observational record. We achieve this by pooling all of the tide gauge data together through a Bayesian hierarchical model that describes how the distribution of surge extremes varies in time and space. Our approach has two highly desirable advantages: 1) it enables sharing of information across data sites, with a consequent drastic reduction in estimation uncertainty; 2) it permits interpolation of both the extreme values and the extreme distribution parameters at any arbitrary ungauged location. Using our model, we produce an observation-based probabilistic reanalysis of surge extremes covering the entire Atlantic and North Sea coasts of Europe for the period 1960–2013.

scholarly journals Probabilistic reanalysis of storm surge extremes in Europe

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Mir Calafat ◽  
Marta Marcos
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Values ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Tide Gauge Record ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Estimation Uncertainty

<p>Extreme sea levels are a significant threat to life, property, and the environment. These threats are managed by coastal planers through the implementation of risk mitigation strategies. Central to such strategies is knowledge of extreme event probabilities. Typically, these probabilities are estimated by fitting a suitable distribution to the observed extreme data. Estimates, however, are often uncertain due to the small number of extreme events in the tide gauge record and are only available at gauged locations. This restricts our ability to implement cost-effective mitigation. A remarkable fact about sea-level extremes is the existence of spatial dependences, yet the vast majority of studies to date have analyzed extremes on a site-by-site basis. Here we demonstrate that spatial dependences can be exploited to address the limitations posed by the spatiotemporal sparseness of the observational record. We achieve this by pooling all the tide gauge data together through a Bayesian hierarchical model that describes how the distribution of surge extremes varies in time and space. Our new approach has two highly desirable advantages: 1) it enables sharing of information across data sites, with a consequent drastic reduction in estimation uncertainty; 2) it permits interpolation of both the extreme values and the extreme distribution parameters at any arbitrary ungauged location. Using our model, we produce the first, to our knowledge, observation-based probabilistic reanalysis of surge extremes covering the entire Atlantic and North Sea coasts of Europe for the period 1960-2013.</p>

scholarly journals A century of sea level data and the UK's 2013/14 storm surges: an assessment of extremes and clustering using the Newlyn tide gauge record

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1995-2028 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. P. Wadey ◽  
I. D. Haigh ◽  
J. M. Brown
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
High Water ◽  
Lower Probability ◽  
Tide Gauge Record ◽  
Storm Activity ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Level Data

Abstract. For the UK's longest and most complete sea level record (Newlyn), we assess extreme high water events and their temporal clustering; prompted by the 2013/2014 winter of flooding and storms. These are set into context against this almost 100 yr record. We define annual periods for which storm activity, tides and sea levels can be compared on a year-by-year basis. Amongst the storms and high tides which affected Newlyn the recent winter produced the largest recorded high water (3 February 2014) and five others above a 1 in 1 yr return period. The large magnitude of tide and mean sea level, and the close inter-event spacings (of large return period high waters), suggests that the 2013/2014 high water "season" may be considered the most extreme on record. However, storm and sea level events may be classified in different ways. For example in the context of sea level rise (which we calculate linearly as 1.81 ± 0.1 mm yr−1 from 1915 to 2014), a lower probability combination of surge and tide occurred on 29 January 1948, whilst 1995/1996 storm surge season saw the most high waters of ≥ 1 in 1 yr return period. We provide a basic categorisation of five types of high water cluster, ranging from consecutive tidal cycles to multiple years. The assessment is extended to other UK sites (with shorter sea level records and different tide-surge characteristics), which suggests 2013/2014 was extreme, although further work should assess clustering mechanisms and flood system "memory".

scholarly journals A joint probabilistic index for objective drought identification: the case study of Haiti

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 471-487
Author(s):  
Beatrice Monteleone ◽  
Brunella Bonaccorso ◽  
Mario Martina
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Indices

Abstract. Since drought is a multifaceted phenomenon, more than one variable should be considered for a proper understanding of such an extreme event in order to implement adequate risk mitigation strategies such as weather or agricultural indices insurance programmes or disaster risk financing tools. This paper proposes a new composite drought index that accounts for both meteorological and agricultural drought conditions by combining in a probabilistic framework two consolidated drought indices: the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the vegetation health index (VHI). The new index, called the probabilistic precipitation vegetation index (PPVI), is scalable, transferable all over the globe and can be updated in near real time. Furthermore, it is a remote-sensing product, since precipitation is retrieved from satellite data and the VHI is a remote-sensing index. In addition, a set of rules to objectively identify drought events is developed and implemented. Both the index and the set of rules have been applied to Haiti. The performance of the PPVI has been evaluated by means of a receiver operating characteristic curve and compared to that of the SPI and VHI considered separately. The new index outperformed SPI and VHI both in drought identification and characterization, thus revealing potential for an effective implementation within drought early-warning systems.

An Economics-Based Intelligence (EI) Tool for Pressure Vessel and Piping (PVP) Failure Consequence Estimation

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert E. Chapman ◽  
Jeffrey T. Fong ◽  
David T. Butry ◽  
Douglas S. Thomas ◽  
James J. Filliben ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Economic Evaluation ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Monte Carlo Techniques ◽  
The Third ◽  
Asset Protection ◽  
Failure Event ◽  
Risk Mitigation Strategies

This paper is built around ASTM E 2506, Standard Guide for Developing a Cost-Effective Risk Mitigation Plan for New and Existing Constructed Facilities. E 2506 establishes a three-step protocol—perform risk assessment, specify combinations of risk mitigation strategies for evaluation, and perform economic evaluation—to insure that the decision maker is provided the requisite information to choose the most cost effective combination of risk mitigation strategies. Because decisions associated with low-probability, high-consequence events involve uncertainty both in terms of appropriate evaluation procedures and event-related measures of likelihood and consequence, NIST developed a Risk Mitigation Toolkit. This paper uses (a) a data center undergoing renovation for improved security, and (b) a PVP-related failure event to illustrate how to perform the E 2506 three-step protocol with particular emphasis on the third step—perform economic evaluation. The third step is built around the Cost-Effectiveness Tool for Capital Asset Protection (CET), which was developed by NIST. Version 4.0 of CET is used to analyze the security- or failure-related event with a focus on consequence estimation and consequence assessment via Monte Carlo techniques. CET 4.0 includes detailed analysis and reporting features designed to identify key cost drivers, measure their impacts, and deliver estimated consequence parameters with uncertainty bounds. Significance of this economics-based intelligence (EI) tool is presented and discussed for security- or failure-consequence estimation to risk assessment of failure of critical structures or components.

scholarly journals A joint probabilistic index for objective drought identification: the case study of Haiti

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Beatrice Monteleone ◽  
Brunella Bonaccorso ◽  
Mario Martina
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Operating Characteristics

Abstract. Since drought is a multifaceted phenomenon, more than one variable should be considered for a proper understanding of such extreme event in order to implement adequate risk mitigation strategies such as weather or agricultural indices insurance programs, or disaster risk financing tools. This paper proposes a new composite drought index that accounts for both meteorological and agricultural drought conditions, by combining in a probabilistic framework two consolidated drought indices: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Vegetation Health Index (VHI). The new index, called Probabilistic Precipitation Vegetation Index (PPVI), is scalable, transferable all over the globe and can be updated in near-real time. Furthermore, it is a remote-sensing product, since precipitation are retrieved from satellite and the VHI is a remote-sensing index. In addition, a set of rules to objectively identify drought events is developed and implemented. Both the index and the set of rules have been applied to Haiti. The performance of PPVI has been evaluated by means of the Receiver Operating Characteristics curve and compared to the ones of SPI and VHI considered separately. The new index outperformed SPI and VHI both in drought identification and characterization, thus revealing potential for an effective implementation within drought early warning systems.

Proactive Actions Based on a Resilient Approach to Urban Seismic Risk Mitigation

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 321-335
Author(s):  
Marco Vona
Keyword(s):  
Urban Planning ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Housing Stock ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Housing System ◽  
Management Tools ◽  
Natural Risk ◽  
Seismic Risk Mitigation

Background: Seismic risk mitigation is an important issue in earthquake-prone countries, and needs to be solved in those complex communities governed by complex processes, where urban planning, socioeconomic dynamics, and, often, the need to preserve cultural assets are present simultaneously. In recent years, due to limited financial resources, mitigation activities have often been limited to post-earthquake events, and only a few in periods of inactivity, particularly in urban planning. At this point, a significant change in point of view is necessary. Methods: The seismic risk mitigation (and more generally, natural risk mitigation) must be considered as the main topic in urban planning and in the governance of communities. In fact, in several recent earthquakes, significant socioeconomic losses have been caused by the low or lack of resilience of the communities. This is mainly due to the high vulnerability of private buildings, in particular, housing units. Results: Therefore, in recent years, several studies have been conducted on the seismic resilience of communities. However, significant improvements are still needed for the resilience assessment of the housing stock, both qualitatively and quantitatively. In this study, which is applied to the housing system, a proposal regarding a change in urban planning and emergency management tools based on the concept of resilience is reported. As a first application, a case study in Italy is considered. Conclusion: The proposal is focused on defining and quantifying the improvement of the resilience of the communities and this must be obtained by modifying the current Civil Protection plan. New tools are based on a new resilience community plan by encompassing urban planning tools, resilient mitigation strategies, and consequently, emergency management planning.

Antarctic Peninsula sea levels: a real-time system for monitoring Drake Passage transport

2006 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 429-436 ◽  
Author(s):  
P.L. Woodworth ◽  
C.W. Hughes ◽  
D.L. Blackman ◽  
V.N. Stepanov ◽  
S.J. Holgate ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Antarctic Peninsula ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Drake Passage ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Time System ◽  
International Polar Year ◽  
Real Time System ◽  
Sea Levels

Sub-surface pressure (SSP) data from tide gauges at three bases on the Pacific coast of the Antarctic Peninsula, together with SSP information from a bottom pressure recorder deployed on the south side of the Drake Passage, have been used to study the relationships between SSP, Drake Passage transport, and the strength of Southern Ocean zonal winds as represented by the Southern Annular Mode. High correlations were obtained between all parameters, confirming results obtained previously with independent data sets, and demonstrating the value of information from the permanent Rothera base, the southern-most site considered. These are important findings with regard to the design, installation and maintenance of observation networks in Antarctica. In particular, they provide the necessary justification for Antarctic Peninsula tide gauge infrastructure investment in the lead up to International Polar Year. Data delivery from Rothera and Vernadsky is currently being improved and should soon enable the first near real-time system for monitoring Drake Passage transport variability on intraseasonal timescales, an essential component of a Southern Ocean Observing System.

scholarly journals 307 A systems approach to understanding biosecurity decision-making

2020 ◽  
Vol 98 (Supplement_4) ◽  
pp. 43-43
Author(s):  
Scott C Merrill ◽  
Christopher Koliba ◽  
Gabriela Bucini ◽  
Eric Clark ◽  
Luke Trinity ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
African Swine Fever Virus ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Communication Strategy ◽  
Livestock Industry ◽  
Diarrhea Virus ◽  
Operational Level

Abstract Disease and its consequences result in social and economic impacts to the US animal livestock industry, ranging from losses in human capital to economic costs in excess of a billion dollars annually. Impacts would dramatically escalate if a devastating disease like Foot and Mouth Disease or African Swine Fever virus were to emerge in the United States. Investing in preventative biosecurity can reduce the likelihood of disease incursions and their negative impact on our livestock industry, yet uncertainty persists with regards to developing an effective biosecurity structure and culture. Here we show the implications of human behavior and decision making for biosecurity effectiveness, from the operational level to the owner/managerial level and finally to the systems level. For example, adjustments to risk messaging strategies could double worker compliance with biosecurity practices at the operational level. The improvement of our risk communication strategy may increase willingness to invest in biosecurity. Furthermore, the adaptation of policies could nudge behavior so that we observe a short disease outbreak followed by a quick eradication instead of a pandemic. Our research shows how the emergence of now-endemic diseases, such as Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus, cannot be adequately modeled without the use of a human behavioral component. Focusing solely on any one sector or level of the livestock system is not sufficient to predict emergent disease patterns and their social and economic impact on livestock industries. These results provide insight toward developing more effective risk mitigation strategies and ways to nudge behavior toward more disease resilient systems.

scholarly journals Use of failure modes and effects analysis to mitigate potential risks prior to implementation of an intravenous compounding technology

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnes Ann Feemster ◽  
Melissa Augustino ◽  
Rosemary Duncan ◽  
Anand Khandoobhai ◽  
Meghan Rowcliffe
Keyword(s):  
Medication Safety ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
New Technology ◽  
Hazard Index ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Investigational Drug ◽  
Workflow Optimization ◽  
Proactive Approach ◽  
Risk Mitigation Strategies

Abstract Disclaimer In an effort to expedite the publication of articles related to the COVID-19 pandemic, AJHP is posting these manuscripts online as soon as possible after acceptance. Accepted manuscripts have been peer-reviewed and copyedited, but are posted online before technical formatting and author proofing. These manuscripts are not the final version of record and will be replaced with the final article (formatted per AJHP style and proofed by the authors) at a later time. Purpose The purpose of this study was to identify potential failure points in a new chemotherapy preparation technology and to implement changes that prevent or minimize the consequences of those failures before they occur using the failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) approach. Methods An FMEA was conducted by a team of medication safety pharmacists, oncology pharmacists and technicians, leadership from informatics, investigational drug, and medication safety services, and representatives from the technology vendor. Failure modes were scored using both Risk Priority Number (RPN) and Risk Hazard Index (RHI) scores. Results The chemotherapy preparation workflow was defined in a 41-step process with 16 failure modes. The RPN and RHI scores were identical for each failure mode because all failure modes were considered detectable. Five failure modes, all attributable to user error, were deemed to pose the highest risk. Mitigation strategies and system changes were identified for 2 failure modes, with subsequent system modifications resulting in reduced risk. Conclusion The FMEA was a useful tool for risk mitigation and workflow optimization prior to implementation of an intravenous compounding technology. The process of conducting this study served as a collaborative and proactive approach to reducing the potential for medication errors upon adoption of new technology into the chemotherapy preparation process.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document