scholarly journals Permafrost carbon feedbacks threaten global climate goals

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (21) ◽  
pp. e2100163118
Author(s):  
Susan M. Natali ◽  
John P. Holdren ◽  
Brendan M. Rogers ◽  
Rachael Treharne ◽  
Philip B. Duffy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Arctic Warming ◽  
Permafrost Thaw ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
Thawing Permafrost ◽  
Reduce Emissions ◽  
Climate Crisis ◽  
Global Emissions

Rapid Arctic warming has intensified northern wildfires and is thawing carbon-rich permafrost. Carbon emissions from permafrost thaw and Arctic wildfires, which are not fully accounted for in global emissions budgets, will greatly reduce the amount of greenhouse gases that humans can emit to remain below 1.5 °C or 2 °C. The Paris Agreement provides ongoing opportunities to increase ambition to reduce society’s greenhouse gas emissions, which will also reduce emissions from thawing permafrost. In December 2020, more than 70 countries announced more ambitious nationally determined contributions as part of their Paris Agreement commitments; however, the carbon budgets that informed these commitments were incomplete, as they do not fully account for Arctic feedbacks. There is an urgent need to incorporate the latest science on carbon emissions from permafrost thaw and northern wildfires into international consideration of how much more aggressively societal emissions must be reduced to address the global climate crisis.

China’s Carbon Neutrality Policy: Objectives, Impacts and Paths

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (01) ◽  
pp. 5-18
Author(s):  
Liang DONG ◽  
Gaoyi MIAO ◽  
Weigang WEN
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Profound Impact ◽  
Carbon Neutrality ◽  
Policies And Measures ◽  
Policy Objectives ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions

In order to realise the goal of the Paris Agreement, China has announced to enhance its nationally determined contributions (NDCs), demonstrating its determination to adopt more rigorous policies and measures to achieve a peak in carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. China’s pledge to carbon neutrality not only has a profound impact on its economic reforms, but also spurs the country to be more proactive in global climate governnance.

scholarly journals Fusing subnational with national climate action is central to decarbonization: the case of the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan E. Hultman ◽  
Leon Clarke ◽  
Carla Frisch ◽  
Kevin Kennedy ◽  
Haewon McJeon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Emissions Reductions ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Reduce Emissions

Abstract Approaches that root national climate strategies in local actions will be essential for all countries as they develop new nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement. The potential impact of climate action from non-national actors in delivering higher global ambition is significant. Sub-national action in the United States provides a test for how such actions can accelerate emissions reductions. We aggregated U.S. state, city, and business commitments within an integrated assessment model to assess how a national climate strategy can be built upon non-state actions. We find that existing commitments alone could reduce emissions 25% below 2005 levels by 2030, and that enhancing actions by these actors could reduce emissions up to 37%. We show how these actions can provide a stepped-up basis for additional federal action to reduce emissions by 49%—consistent with 1.5 °C. Our analysis demonstrates sub-national actions can lead to substantial reductions and support increased national action.

scholarly journals Global Recognition of the Importance of Nature-Based Solutions to Climate Change Impacts

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathalie Seddon ◽  
Elizabeth Daniels ◽  
Rowan Davis ◽  
Rian Harris ◽  
Xiaoting Hou-Jones ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Change Policy ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Evidence Base ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Change Policy ◽  
Ecosystem Science ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
Science Community

Ecosystems are not merely vulnerable to climate change but, if sustainably restored and protected, are a major source of human resilience. Not only is the evidence-base for the importance of these “Nature-based Solutions” (NbS) growing rapidly, but NbS are featuring with increasing prominence in global climate change policy. Here we report on the prominence of NbS in the 141 adaptation components of the 167 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that were submitted to UNFCCC by all signatories of the Paris Agreement. In total, 103 nations include NbS in the adaptation component of their NDC, 76 nations include them in both their adaptation and mitigation component, and an additional 27 include them as part of their mitigation plans only. In other words, 130 nations—or 66% of all signatories to the Paris Agreement—have articulated intentions of working with ecosystems, in one form or another, to address the causes and consequences of climate change. However, commitments rarely translate into robust science-based targets. As climate pledges are revised in 2020, we urge the ecosystem science community to work closely with policymakers to identify meaningful adaptation targets that benefit both people and the ecosystems on which they depend.

scholarly journals The global carbon budget and the Paris agreement

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 310-325 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olga Alcaraz ◽  
Pablo Buenestado ◽  
Beatriz Escribano ◽  
Bàrbara Sureda ◽  
Albert Turon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Carbon Budget ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Carbon Budget ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
First Time ◽  
Global Emissions ◽  
Global Carbon ◽  
Reporting And Verification

Purpose The main purpose of this paper is to introduce the concept of global carbon budget (GCB) as a key concept that should be introduced as a reference when countries formulate their mitigation contributions in the context of the Paris Agreement and in all the monitoring, reporting and verification processes that must be implemented according to the decisions of the Paris Summit. Design/methodology/approach A method based on carbon budget accounting is used to analyze the intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) submitted by the 15 countries that currently head the ranking of global emissions. Moreover, these INDCs are analyzed and compared with each other. Sometimes, inadequate methodologies and a diverse level of ambition in the formulated targets are observed. Findings It is found that the INDCs of those 15 countries alone imply the release into the atmosphere of 84 per cent of the GCB for the period 2011-2030, and 40 per cent of the GCB available until the end of the century. Originality/value This is the first time the INDCs of the top 15 emitters are analyzed. It is also the first analysis made using the GCB approach. This paper suggests methodological changes in the way that the future NDCs might be formulated.

scholarly journals Climate Mitigation Efforts After the Paris Agreement: Achievements, Remaining Debates, and New Challenges

2016 ◽  
Vol 02 (03) ◽  
pp. 383-400
Author(s):  
Huang Yitian
Keyword(s):  
Global Climate ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Institutional Innovation ◽  
First Century ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Climate Regime ◽  
Future Directions ◽  
Global Challenge ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
New Challenges

Climate change has been widely recognized as a global challenge that must be addressed in the twenty-first century. As an important step toward a post-2020 climate regime, the Paris Agreement has shown great achievements as well as future directions of global climate mitigation. Although some key features can be found in the mitigation provisions of the agreement, such as dual goals of temperature increase, reliance on “nationally determined contributions,” the blending of market and non-market elements, and ambiguity in financial and technology transfer, yet remaining debates including the allocation of responsibilities and the fairness of international transfer of mitigation outcomes will continue to affect the future of global climate governance. Furthermore, new challenges have also emerged after the Paris deal. Political and economic uncertainties, “carbon leakage” among industrializing countries, and the overgrowth of climate financial institutions will all generate impacts on future climate mitigation efforts. There is no ready panacea to these problems. Nevertheless, a few options of policy and institutional innovation at the technical level should be considered to generate incremental progress.

scholarly journals Non-state Actors in the International Climate Change Regulatory Framework

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 88-104
Author(s):  
Sina Bergmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Governance Model ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
International Climate ◽  
State Actors ◽  
Law Making ◽  
International Climate Change

Global climate governance is multilateral and involves both state and non-state actors. This study sets to identify the ways in which non-state actors can access and participate in the international climate change regime under the UNFCCC and the 2015 Paris Agreement and to evaluate how they can influence law-making processes and outcomes under the agreements. The study further provides recommendations on how the involvement of non-state actors can be improved under the agreements. The study emphasizes that under the UNFCCC, non-state actors have an important role in acting as intermediaries under the orchestration governance model and in participating to the Conference of Parties and under the Paris Agreement, by exerting influence on state’s nationally determined contributions. The study suggests that the role of non-state actors in formulating nationally determined contributions and in participating to the Conference of Parties should be further formalised and that the NAZCA portal should be improved.

A Regime Paralyzed: An Exploration of Current Climate Politics and the Urgent Need for Reform

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brenna Owen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
International System ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Climate Politics ◽  
International Climate ◽  
Reduce Emissions ◽  
To Come ◽  
Climate Crisis

The science on climate change is in: legitimate scientists have been unable to provide serious scientific evidence that casts doubt on the fact that anthropogenic, that is, human-caused climate change is occurring. Less clear are the speed of climate change and the extent of damages to environmental and human health if emissions from fossil fuels continue unabated. The most recent international conference on the environment, namely the 2013 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) or Conference of the Parties (COP) 19, was characterized by bitter intergovernmental negotiations and non-committal by major emitters to watered-down agreements. COP 19 exemplifies the inadequacies inherent in the current international system, which render it incapable of effectively addressing climate change; in other words, the international community remains unable to come to an agreement or agreements that mitigate the effects of climate change now, while establishing adaptation mechanisms for the future as the effects of climate change become increasingly pronounced. The efficacy of the current regime is impeded not only by its singular, non-binding approach to emissions reduction, but also by the ability of a small number of major emitters’ ability to hinder agreements. In order to make rising to the challenge of the global climate crisis politically feasible, the international climate regime must abandon the current emissions cap approach and adopt an incremental approach to negotiations, crafting sector-specific agreements that aim to gradually reduce emissions in a viable and equitable manner.

Obligations to Reduce Emissions: From the Oslo Principles to Enterprises

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Sutherland
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Tort Law ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Business And Human Rights ◽  
Reduce Emissions ◽  
Mitigate Climate Change ◽  
Central Pillar ◽  
Domestic Law

AbstractThe release of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) by the activities of humans is a major contributor to current global climate change. A major environmental catastrophe caused by this climate change will be averted only if the emission of GHGs are drastically reduced. Attempts have been made to reach international agreements among nations to achieve this, but these attempts, of which the Paris Agreement is the most recent, appear to be inadequate and ineffective. A group of scholars, the Oslo group, therefore asked the question whether more comprehensive obligations that bind states and enterprises could be deduced from other sources of law. The attempts to answer these questions have culminated in the Oslo Principles on Global Climate Change Obligations. The basic methodology that was followed in drafting the Oslo Principles is described. The Oslo group concluded that several concrete obligations to mitigate climate change could be stated by reference to international and domestic law. Particular attention is given in this contribution to tort law as a basis for mitigation obligations in the Oslo Principles but some attention is also given to other areas of law. The central pillar of the Oslo Principles is the primary mitigation obligation, which according to the Principles, is imposed on states. The ambit and nature of this obligation are described. Finally, it is acknowledged that the Oslo Principles only describe rudimentary obligations on enterprises and that it is both difficult and necessary to set out mitigation obligations that can be imposed on enterprises. The contribution finally proposes that the ideas behind the Oslo Principles and United Nations Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights can be utilised in devising basic mitigation obligations for enterprises.

scholarly journals Country-based rate of emissions reductions should increase by 80% beyond nationally determined contributions to meet the 2 °C target

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peiran R. Liu ◽  
Adrian E. Raftery
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Probabilistic Framework ◽  
Emissions Reductions ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
Reduce Emissions ◽  
Rate Of Decline

AbstractThe 2015 Paris Agreement aims to keep global warming by 2100 to below 2 °C, with 1.5 °C as a target. To that end, countries agreed to reduce their emissions by nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Using a fully statistically based probabilistic framework, we find that the probabilities of meeting their nationally determined contributions for the largest emitters are low, e.g. 2% for the USA and 16% for China. On current trends, the probability of staying below 2 °C of warming is only 5%, but if all countries meet their nationally determined contributions and continue to reduce emissions at the same rate after 2030, it rises to 26%. If the USA alone does not meet its nationally determined contribution, it declines to 18%. To have an even chance of staying below 2 °C, the average rate of decline in emissions would need to increase from the 1% per year needed to meet the nationally determined contributions, to 1.8% per year.

scholarly journals A Global Roll-out of Nationally Relevant Policies Bridges the Emissions Gap

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heleen van Soest ◽  
Lara Aleluia Reis ◽  
Luiz Bernardo Baptista ◽  
Christoph Bertram ◽  
Jacques Després ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Demand ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Good Practice ◽  
Scale Up ◽  
Local Context ◽  
Success Stories ◽  
Early Action ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
Global Emissions ◽  
Roll Out

Abstract Closing the remaining emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals will likely require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National and sectoral policies can help fill the gap, but success stories in one country cannot be automatically replicated in other countries, but need to be adapted to the local context. Here, we develop a new Bridge scenario based on nationally relevant measures informed by interactions with country experts. We implement this scenario with an ensemble of global integrated assessment models (IAMs). We show that a global roll-out of these good practice policies closes the emissions gap between current NDCs and a cost-optimal well below 2 °C scenario by two thirds by 2030 and more than fully by 2050, while being less disruptive than a scenario that delays cost-optimal mitigation to 2030. The Bridge scenario leads to a scale-up of renewable energy (reaching 50%-85% of global electricity supply by 2050), electrification of end-uses, efficiency improvements in energy demand sectors, and enhanced afforestation and reforestation. Our analysis suggests that early action via good-practice policies is less costly than a delay in global climate cooperation.

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