scholarly journals Country-based rate of emissions reductions should increase by 80% beyond nationally determined contributions to meet the 2 °C target

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peiran R. Liu ◽  
Adrian E. Raftery
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Probabilistic Framework ◽  
Emissions Reductions ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
Reduce Emissions ◽  
Rate Of Decline

AbstractThe 2015 Paris Agreement aims to keep global warming by 2100 to below 2 °C, with 1.5 °C as a target. To that end, countries agreed to reduce their emissions by nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Using a fully statistically based probabilistic framework, we find that the probabilities of meeting their nationally determined contributions for the largest emitters are low, e.g. 2% for the USA and 16% for China. On current trends, the probability of staying below 2 °C of warming is only 5%, but if all countries meet their nationally determined contributions and continue to reduce emissions at the same rate after 2030, it rises to 26%. If the USA alone does not meet its nationally determined contribution, it declines to 18%. To have an even chance of staying below 2 °C, the average rate of decline in emissions would need to increase from the 1% per year needed to meet the nationally determined contributions, to 1.8% per year.

scholarly journals Fusing subnational with national climate action is central to decarbonization: the case of the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan E. Hultman ◽  
Leon Clarke ◽  
Carla Frisch ◽  
Kevin Kennedy ◽  
Haewon McJeon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Emissions Reductions ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Reduce Emissions

Abstract Approaches that root national climate strategies in local actions will be essential for all countries as they develop new nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement. The potential impact of climate action from non-national actors in delivering higher global ambition is significant. Sub-national action in the United States provides a test for how such actions can accelerate emissions reductions. We aggregated U.S. state, city, and business commitments within an integrated assessment model to assess how a national climate strategy can be built upon non-state actions. We find that existing commitments alone could reduce emissions 25% below 2005 levels by 2030, and that enhancing actions by these actors could reduce emissions up to 37%. We show how these actions can provide a stepped-up basis for additional federal action to reduce emissions by 49%—consistent with 1.5 °C. Our analysis demonstrates sub-national actions can lead to substantial reductions and support increased national action.

scholarly journals The Montreal Protocol or the Paris Agreement as a Model for a Plastics Treaty?

AJIL Unbound ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 114 ◽  
pp. 212-216
Author(s):  
Elizabeth A. Kirk
Keyword(s):  
Iterative Process ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Emissions Reduction ◽  
Emissions Reductions ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Common But Differentiated Responsibilities ◽  
Alternative Materials ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
Over Time

The notion that a plastics treaty is necessary is gaining traction, but there is less agreement as to its content. Some, including this author, have suggested that a plastics treaty should be modelled on treaties such as the Montreal Protocol, which sets out a broad commitment to end the use of a particular material and then introduce regulations to ban particular forms of that material over time. This approach has an immediate appeal—it sends a signal to states and to industry that they must change their behaviors and products, while giving time to adapt to the new regulation and develop alternative materials or ways of working. The potential drawback of this approach is that some states simply will not accept such rigid standards. In addition, some states may prefer a second approach that is more obviously rooted in the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, which assigns different obligations to parties according to their respective capacities. Within the climate change regime, the Paris Agreement takes both approaches, asking states to set their own nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to emissions reductions (common but differentiated responsibilities) and then to revise these NDCs over time through an iterative process to deliver progressively more ambitious targets for emissions reduction (moving toward a ban) or mitigation. In reality, neither approach is entirely suited to regulating plastics, so a new approach to treaty-making is required. This new approach should focus on the outcomes desired rather than the practices that need to be regulated.

scholarly journals Combating climate change with matching-commitment agreements

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chai Molina ◽  
Erol Akcay ◽  
Ulf Dieckmann ◽  
Simon Levin ◽  
Elena A. Rovenskaya
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Collective Action ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Collective Action Problem ◽  
Emissions Reductions ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Reduce Emissions

Countries generally agree that global greenhouse gas emissions are too high, but prefer other countries reduce emissions rather than reducing their own. The Paris Agreement is intended to solve this collective action problem, but is likely insufficient. One proposed solution is a matching-commitment agreement, through which countries can change each other’s incentives by committing to conditional emissions reductions, before countries decide on their unconditional reductions. Here, we study matching-commitment agreements between two heterogeneous countries. We find that such agreements (1) incentivize both countries to make matching commitments that in turn incentivize efficient emissions reductions, (2) reduce emissions from those expected without an agreement, and (3) increase both countries’ welfare. Matching-commitment agreements are attractive because they do not require a central enforcing authority and only require countries to fulfil their promises; countries are left to choose their conditional and unconditional emissions reductions according to their own interests.

scholarly journals Permafrost carbon feedbacks threaten global climate goals

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (21) ◽  
pp. e2100163118
Author(s):  
Susan M. Natali ◽  
John P. Holdren ◽  
Brendan M. Rogers ◽  
Rachael Treharne ◽  
Philip B. Duffy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Arctic Warming ◽  
Permafrost Thaw ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
Thawing Permafrost ◽  
Reduce Emissions ◽  
Climate Crisis ◽  
Global Emissions

Rapid Arctic warming has intensified northern wildfires and is thawing carbon-rich permafrost. Carbon emissions from permafrost thaw and Arctic wildfires, which are not fully accounted for in global emissions budgets, will greatly reduce the amount of greenhouse gases that humans can emit to remain below 1.5 °C or 2 °C. The Paris Agreement provides ongoing opportunities to increase ambition to reduce society’s greenhouse gas emissions, which will also reduce emissions from thawing permafrost. In December 2020, more than 70 countries announced more ambitious nationally determined contributions as part of their Paris Agreement commitments; however, the carbon budgets that informed these commitments were incomplete, as they do not fully account for Arctic feedbacks. There is an urgent need to incorporate the latest science on carbon emissions from permafrost thaw and northern wildfires into international consideration of how much more aggressively societal emissions must be reduced to address the global climate crisis.

scholarly journals Climate Change: Reversing the Past and Advancing the Future

AJIL Unbound ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 115 ◽  
pp. 80-85
Author(s):  
Daniel Bodansky
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Global Institutions ◽  
Change Policy ◽  
Global Action ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
Executive Action

After four years of not simply inaction but significant retrogression in U.S. climate change policy, the Biden administration has its work cut out. As a start, it needs to undo what Trump did. The Biden administration took a step in that direction on Day 1 by rejoining the Paris Agreement. But simply restoring the pre-Trump status quo ante is not enough. The United States also needs to push for more ambitious global action. In part, this will require strengthening parties’ nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement; but it will also require actions by what Sue Biniaz, the former State Department climate change lawyer, likes to call the Greater Metropolitan Paris Agreement—that is, the array of other international actors that help advance the Paris Agreement's goals, including global institutions such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the Montreal Protocol, and the World Bank, as well as regional organizations and non-state actors. Although the Biden administration can pursue some of these international initiatives directly through executive action, new regulatory initiatives will face an uncertain fate in the Supreme Court. So how much the Biden Administration is able to achieve will likely depend significantly on how much a nearly evenly-divided Congress is willing to support.

EXPLORING FAIR AND AMBITIOUS MITIGATION CONTRIBUTIONS OF ASIAN ECONOMIES FOR THE GLOBAL WARMING LIMIT UNDER THE PARIS AGREEMENT

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
XINRU LI ◽  
XUEMEI JIANG ◽  
YAN XIA
Keyword(s):  
Developing Economies ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Asian Economies ◽  
Zero Carbon ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
Emission Quotas ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Ideal

Focusing on the mitigation responsibilities and efforts, this paper provides a unified estimation of allowable emission quotas for a number of Asian economies to limit the global temperature rise well below 2°C based on a range of effort-sharing approaches. The study also explores the inconsistency between their planned emission pathways under the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the allowable emissions to achieve the 2°C target. The results show that most of the Asian developing economies would be in favor of the Equal-Per-Capita and Grandfather criteria, for which they would obtain more allowable emissions quota. However, even with the most favorable criterion, official mitigation pledges represented by NDCs are far less enough for these developing Asian economies such as China, India, Vietnam, Thailand and Pakistan, as their emission pathways under NDCs significantly exceed the ideal pathways under all effort-sharing approaches. In contrast, most of the Asian developed economies have already planned reductions of annual CO2 emissions under NDCs, in line with their ideal pathways under the most favorable effort-sharing approach. However, their reductions of emissions require deep strengthening of deployment in low-carbon, zero-carbon and negative-carbon techniques, given the current growing trend of emissions for these economies.

scholarly journals Contrasting Suitability and Ambition in Regional Carbon Mitigation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mingxi Du ◽  
Yu Liu ◽  
Qi Cui ◽  
Jintai Lin ◽  
Yawen Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Effect ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Social Cost Of Carbon ◽  
Carbon Mitigation ◽  
Potential Cost ◽  
Cost And Benefit ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
Potential Benefits ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
Reduce Emissions

Abstract Substantially enhancing carbon mitigation ambition is a crucial step towards achieving the Paris climate goal. Yet this attempt is hampered by poor knowledge on the net economic effect of mitigation for each emitter, by taking into account potential cost and benefit. Here we use a global economic model with regional and sectoral disaggregation details to assess the mitigation costs for 27 major emitting countries and regions, and further contrast the costs against the potential benefits of mitigation valued as avoided social cost of carbon. We find substantial variabilities across these emitters in both cost and benefit of mitigating each ton of carbon dioxide and, more importantly, a strong negative spatial correlation between cost and benefit. The relative suitability of carbon mitigation, defined as the ratio of normalized benefit to normalized cost, shows great spatial mismatch with the mitigation ambition of emitters indicated in their first intended nationally determined contributions. China is relatively suitable for domestic carbon mitigation and could largely enhance their mitigation ambition. The European Union, which is economically less suitable to reduce domestic emissions, could work with many developing countries which are more suitable but less capable to reduce emissions. Our work provides important information to improve concerted climate action and formulate more efficient mitigation strategy.

scholarly journals Leaf photosynthetic function duration during yield formation of large-spike wheat in rainfed cropping systems

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lifang Wang ◽  
Jutao Sun ◽  
Chenyang Wang ◽  
Zhouping Shangguan
Keyword(s):  
Photosynthetic Rate ◽  
Cropping Systems ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Grain Filling ◽  
Triticum Aestivum L ◽  
Relative Water ◽  
Large Spike ◽  
Rate Of Decline ◽  
Yield Formation

Improving photosynthetic capacity significantly affects the yield of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in rainfed regions. In this study, the physiological characteristics of eight large-spike wheat lines were compared with a multiple-spike cultivar as a control (CK) in a field over two consecutive seasons: 2010–2012. The tillering peak was 7–21 d after returning green for line 2040, the average rate of decline of relative water content was slower, and the average duration time of photosynthetic rate was longer than CK in vitro. There was a strong linear and positive correlation between photosynthetic rate and root activity at jointing, flowering, and grain-filling stages. In addition, average yields were higher in large-spike lines than CK (multiple-spike cultivar). The results suggest that large-spike lines might have greater water retaining capacity during yield formation under rainfed conditions.

scholarly journals KONSEP PERTANIAN PULAU-PULAU KECIL BERBASIS GUGUS PULAU MENGHADAPI PERUBAHAN IKLIM GLOBAL DI PROVINSI MALUKU

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Agustinus Kastanya
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Indigenous Rights ◽  
Agroforestry System ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Small Islands ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
Concept Framework

Indonesia has already agreed to and submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) to the UNFCCC, to reduce emission gases by 29% on its own and by 41% with outside help by 2030. This step follows the Paris Agreement (COP 21) to reduce world emission gases to prevent the earth warming by 20C . Maluku is characterized by small islands, narrow and short watersheds and needs an innovative approach to development. Multi landscape based development of small islands means using island clusters, watersheds, ecological conditions and socio-economic conditions. An agricultural concept for small islands based on multi landscape plans like green economics has been developed in 3 base concepts : (1) conceptual framework; (2) macro concept framework; (3) micro concept framework. The multi landscape format integrates water catchments and RTRWP/K which are organized into the smallest management units in accordance with indigenous rights. The complete landscape is managed using an agroforestry system for conservation of the watersheds, islands, cluster groups and seas. Thus, the agricultural concept can deliver productivity and services to meet the needs of the community and the environment as well as for mitigation of and adaptation to climate change.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document