scholarly journals THE ROLE OF THEORETICAL AND MATHEMATICAL MODELLING EN SCALE-UP

1994 ◽  
Vol 12 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 1-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piet J.A.M. Kerkhof
2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alice Zwerling ◽  
Sourya Shrestha ◽  
David W. Dowdy

As novel diagnostics, therapies, and algorithms are developed to improve case finding, diagnosis, and clinical management of patients with TB, policymakers must make difficult decisions and choose among multiple new technologies while operating under heavy resource constrained settings. Mathematical modelling can provide helpful insight by describing the types of interventions likely to maximize impact on the population level and highlighting those gaps in our current knowledge that are most important for making such assessments. This review discusses the major contributions of TB transmission models in general, namely, the ability to improve our understanding of the epidemiology of TB. We focus particularly on those elements that are important to appropriately understand the role of TB diagnosis and treatment (i.e., what elements of better diagnosis or treatment are likely to have greatest population-level impact) and yet remain poorly understood at present. It is essential for modellers, decision-makers, and epidemiologists alike to recognize these outstanding gaps in knowledge and understand their potential influence on model projections that may guide critical policy choices (e.g., investment and scale-up decisions).


This book critically assesses the expanding field of global health. It brings together an international and interdisciplinary group of scholars to address the medical, social, political, and economic dimensions of the global health enterprise through vivid case studies and bold conceptual work. The book demonstrates the crucial role of ethnography as an empirical lantern in global health, arguing for a more comprehensive, people-centered approach. Topics include the limits of technological quick fixes in disease control, the moral economy of global health science, the unexpected effects of massive treatment rollouts in resource-poor contexts, and how right-to-health activism coalesces with the increased influence of the pharmaceutical industry on health care. The chapters explore the altered landscapes left behind after programs scale up, break down, or move on. We learn that disease is really never just one thing, technology delivery does not equate with care, and biology and technology interact in ways we cannot always predict. The most effective solutions may well be found in people themselves, who consistently exceed the projections of experts and the medical-scientific, political, and humanitarian frameworks in which they are cast. This book sets a new research agenda in global health and social theory and challenges us to rethink the relationships between care, rights, health, and economic futures.


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (S1) ◽  
pp. s416-s416
Author(s):  
Sumon Ghosh ◽  
Md. Sohel Rana ◽  
Sukanta Chowdhury

Background: Vaccinating dogs against rabies is an effective means of reducing human rabies. Methods: We analyzed 1,327 clinically diagnosed human rabies deaths and mass dog vaccination (MDV) data during 2006–2018 to quantify the impacts of MDV on human rabies incidence in Bangladesh and a subset of rabies death data (n = 422) for clinico-epidemiological analysis. Results: We found a positive and increasing trend of dog population vaccination (P = .01 and τ = 0.71) and a negative and declining trend (P < .001 and τ = −0.88) of human rabies cases (correlation coefficient, −0.82). Among 422 human rabies death cases, most victims (78%) sought treatment from traditional healers, and 12% received postexposure prophylaxis (PEP). The mean incubation period of rabies cases with exposure sites on the head and neck (35 days) was shorter than the upper limb (mean, 64 days; P = .02) and lower limb (mean, 89 days; P < .01). MDV is effective for reducing human rabies cases in Bangladesh. Conclusions: Creating awareness among the animal bite victims to stop relying on traditional healers rather seeking PEP, addressing the role of traditional healers through an awareness education program in respect to the treatment of dog bites, ensuring availability of PEP, and continuing to scale up MDV can help prevent human rabies deaths.Funding: NoneDisclosures: None


2005 ◽  
Vol 6 (Suppl 3) ◽  
pp. S15
Author(s):  
Najl Valeyev ◽  
Andrei Skorinkin ◽  
Kristy Downing ◽  
Iain Campbell ◽  
Nikolai Kotov

2002 ◽  
Vol 45 (6) ◽  
pp. 169-176 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Salem ◽  
D. Berends ◽  
J.J. Heijnen ◽  
M.C.M. van Loosdrecht

Mathematical modelling is considered a time and cost-saving tool for evaluation of new wastewater treatment concepts. Modelling can help to bridge the gap between lab and full-scale application. Bio-augmentation can be used to obtain nitrification in activated sludge systems with a limited aerobic sludge retention time. In the present study the potential for augmenting the endogenous nitrifying population is evaluated. Implementing a nitrification reactor in the sludge return line fed with sludge liquor with a high ammonia concentration leads to augmentation of the native nitrifying population. Since the behaviour of nitrifiers is relatively well known, a choice was made to evaluate this new concept mainly based on mathematical modelling. As an example an existing treatment plant (wwtp Walcheren, The Netherlands) that needed to be upgraded was used. A mathematical model, based on the TUDP model and implemented in AQUASIM was developed and used to evaluate the potential of this bioaugmentation in the return sludge line. A comparison was made between bio-augmentation and extending the existing aeration basins and anoxic tanks. The results of both modified systems were compared to give a quantitative basis for evaluation of benefits gained from such a system. If the plant is upgraded by conventional extension it needs an increase in volume of about 225%; using a bioaugmentation in the return sludge line the total volume of the tanks needs to be expanded by only 75% (including the side stream tanks). Based on the modelling results a decision was made to implement the bioaugmentation concept at full scale without further pilot scale testing, thereby strongly decreasing the scale-up period for this process.


1996 ◽  
Vol 289 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
D.J. am Ende ◽  
P.J. Clifford ◽  
D.L. Northrup

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adedeji A. Adelodun ◽  
Temitope M. Olajire ◽  
Ochuko Mary Ojo

Using biomass as a renewable energy source has earned tremendous interest from researchers in recent decades, especially because the technology is environmentally benign. This article reviews the recent methods for generating biogas from water hyacinth (WH, Eichornia crassipes), arguably the world’s most evasive aquatic macrophyte. Therefore, various economic, environmentally benign, and renewable procedures that enhance biogas production from WH biomass are reviewed. WH has been co-digested with numerous waste types, including poultry droppings, municipal wastes, animal tissue wastes, pig wastes, cow dungs, etc., recording varying success degrees. Other studies focused on optimizing the operation parameters, such as mixing ratio, contact time, pH, temperature, organic loading rate, etc. We observed that most attempts to generate biogas from WH alone were not promising. However, when co-digested with other biomasses or wastes, WH either increases the process rate or improves the methane yield content. Also, the potential of WH as a phytoremdiator-cum-biogas source was investigated. This chapter provides mathematical models, scale-up installation models, and specific experimental results from various studies to guide future study plans toward optimizing CH4 generation from WH co-digestion.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henry Zakumumpa

Abstract Background The expanding roles and increasing importance of the nursing workforce in health services delivery in resource-limited settings is not adequately documented and sufficiently recognized in the current literature. Drawing upon the theme of 2020 as the international year of the nurse and midwife, we set out to describe how the role of nurses had expanded tremendously in health facilities in Uganda during the era of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) scale-up between 2004 and 2014.Methods A mixed-methods study was conducted in two phases. Phase One entailed a cross-sectional health facility survey (n=195) to assess the extent to which human resource management strategies (such as task shifting) were common. Phase Two entailed qualitative case-studies of 16 (of the 195) health facilities for an in-depth understanding of the strategies adopted (e.g. nurse-centred HIV care). We adopted a qualitatively-led mixed methods approach whereby core thematic analyses were supported by descriptive statistics.Results We found that nurses were the most represented cadre of health workers involved in the overall leadership of HIV clinics across Uganda. Most of nurse-led HIV clinics were based in rural settings although this trend was fairly even across all settings (rural/urban/peri-urban). A number of health facilities in our sample (n=36) deliberately adopted nurse-led HIV care models. Nurses were empowered to be multi-skilled with a wide range of competencies across the HIV care continuum right from HIV testing to mainstream clinical HIV disease management. In several facilities, nursing cadre were the backbone of ART service delivery. A select number of facilities devised differentiated models of task shifting from physicians to doctors to nurses in which the latter handled patients who were stable on ART.Conclusion Overall, our study reveals a wide expansion in the scope-of-practice of nurses during the initial ART scale-up phase in Uganda. Nurses were thrust in roles of HIV disease management that were traditionally the preserve of medical doctors. Our study underscores the importance of reforming regulatory frameworks governing nursing workforce scope of practice in Uganda such as the need for evolving a policy on task shifting which is currently lacking in Uganda.


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