Financial variables as leading indicators of GDP growth: Evidence from a MIDAS approach during the Great Recession

Established wisdom is sceptical of direct linkages between economic hardship and contentious mobilization. Occupy protests seem to constitute an anomaly in this regard by their very existence, but factors associated with these events have not been investigated yet. This study of 398 self-designated Occupy protests across 180 countries finds that the country’s level of inequality was associated with a higher rate of protest. Equally important were the severity of the downturn in GDP growth in 2007–11 and the level of democracy. The results offer some evidence for the ‘inverse J-curve’ hypothesis whereby an economic boom period followed by a downturn is conducive to protest. Few studies have previously investigated the influence of inequality and economic growth on political protest across a diverse set of countries going beyond OECD democracies. The applicability of these findings to protest events more generally needs to be corroborated and discussed in future work.

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Financial Variables' Predictive Content for the U.S. Economy During the Great Recession

SSRN Electronic Journal ◽

10.2139/ssrn.2915298 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Dou Young Lee

Keyword(s):

Great Recession ◽

The Great Recession ◽

Financial Variables ◽

Predictive Content ◽

The U.S

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Fiscal Policy and the Great Recession in the Euro Area

The American Economic Review ◽

10.1257/aer.102.3.71 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 102 (3) ◽

pp. 71-76 ◽

Cited By ~ 45

Author(s):

Günter Coenen ◽

Roland Straub ◽

Mathias Trabandt

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Fiscal Policy ◽

Euro Area ◽

Great Recession ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Extended Version ◽

The Great Recession ◽

European Central ◽

Real Gdp ◽

Percentage Points

How much did fiscal policy contribute to euro area real GDP growth during the Great Recession? We estimate that discretionary fiscal measures have increased annualized quarterly real GDP growth during the crisis by up to 1.6 percentage points. We obtain our result by using an extended version of the European Central Bank's New Area-Wide Model with a rich specification of the fiscal sector. A detailed modeling of the fiscal sector and the incorporation of as many as eight fiscal time series appear pivotal for our result.

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THE EXTENSION OF SHORT-TIME WORK SCHEMES DURING THE GREAT RECESSION: A STORY OF SUCCESS?

Macroeconomic Dynamics ◽

10.1017/s1365100518000263 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 24 (2) ◽

pp. 360-402 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Björn Brey ◽

Matthias S. Hertweck

Keyword(s):

Unemployment Rate ◽

Great Recession ◽

Oecd Countries ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Eligibility Criteria ◽

The Great Recession ◽

Automatic Stabilizer ◽

Time Work ◽

Short Time

This paper evaluates the effectiveness of short-time work (STW) extensions—e.g., relaxing eligibility criteria or implementing new schemes—in OECD countries during the Great Recession. First, we find that the dampening effect of STW on the unemployment rate diminishes at higher take-up rates. Second, only countries with pre-existing STW schemes were able to fully exploit the benefits of STW. Third, the effects of STW were strongest when GDP growth was deeply negative at the beginning of the recession. In summary, our results indicate that STW is most effective when used as a fast-responding automatic stabilizer.

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Fluctuations in Uncertainty

The Journal of Economic Perspectives ◽

10.1257/jep.28.2.153 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 28 (2) ◽

pp. 153-176 ◽

Cited By ~ 501

Author(s):

Nicholas Bloom

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Growth Rate ◽

Developing Countries ◽

Business Cycles ◽

Great Recession ◽

Developed Countries ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Economic Uncertainty ◽

The Great Recession ◽

Broad Concept

Uncertainty is an amorphous concept. It reflects uncertainty in the minds of consumers, managers, and policymakers about possible futures. It is also a broad concept, including uncertainty over the path of macro phenomena like GDP growth, micro phenomena like the growth rate of firms, and noneconomic events like war and climate change. In this essay, I address four questions about uncertainty. First, what are some facts and patterns about economic uncertainty? Both macro and micro uncertainty appear to rise sharply in recessions and fall in booms. Uncertainty also varies heavily across countries—developing countries appear to have about one-third more macro uncertainty than developed countries. Second, why does uncertainty vary during business cycles? Third, do fluctuations in uncertainty affect behavior? Fourth, has higher uncertainty worsened the Great Recession and slowed the recovery? Much of this discussion is based on research on uncertainty from the last five years, reflecting the recent growth of the literature.

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Brazilian economic performance since the emergence of the great recession: The effects of income distribution on consumption

Panoeconomicus ◽

10.2298/pan1602157a ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 63 (2) ◽

pp. 157-174 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Philip Arestis ◽

Carolina Troncoso-Baltar ◽

Daniela Magalhães-Prates

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Economic Performance ◽

Great Recession ◽

Growth Rates ◽

Global Financial Crisis ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Macroeconomic Policies ◽

Main Hypothesis ◽

The Great Recession ◽

The Global Financial Crisis

After a long period of unstable and low economic activity, Brazil achieved a relatively high economic growth with low inflation from 2004 to 2008, when the world scenario was favourable for the Brazilian trade balance. An incomes policy, focused on real increases in the minimum wage along with a credit boom, led to a decade of high consumption growth rates. High levels of consumption and exports, in turn, induced investment and stimulated manufacturing production, despite the real appreciation of the national currency. However, the Great Recession that emerged after the global financial crisis of 2007/2008 brought challenges to the Brazilian economic performance, with unpleasant consequences for the country?s GDP growth. Consumption, investment and exports have decelerated, despite anti-cyclical macroeconomic policies. In this setting, manufacturing production stagnated and GDP growth slowed down substantially, while imports continued rising considerably. The aim of this paper is to provide an explanation to the slowdown of Brazilian growth rates after the Great Recession. The main hypothesis is that consumption was the main source of effective demand in the country since 2003. However, Brazil has not yet been able to sustain manufacturing and economic growth without a more active government policy to stimulate productive investment.

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