scholarly journals Forecasting of the efficiency indicators of the use of boiler and furnace fuel in the non-traction power engineering of railway transport based on the model of temporaryth row

2021 ◽  
Vol 2131 (4) ◽  
pp. 042077
Author(s):  
D Rozhitskiy ◽  
Yu Bardykin ◽  
Yu Pavlov ◽  
A Repin ◽  
V Chernikov
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Specific Consumption ◽  
Railway Transport ◽  
Railway Network ◽  
Furnace Fuel ◽  
Gas Heating ◽  
Geographically Distributed ◽  
Heating Oil ◽  
Traction Power

Abstract The article considers the solution of the problem of constructing forecast values for a long period of changes in the value of the specific consumption of boiler and furnace fuel by boilers for a geographically distributed company-Russian Railways, taking into account the use of various types for the main types of fuel used in the generation of thermal energy: natural gas, heating oil, coal and brown coal. A mathematical model based on time series using the Bollinger method is proposed, which includes elements of extrapolation and modeling. An example of calculating the change in the values of specific consumption in the future until 2035 in the whole railway network is given. A simulation of the change in this value is performed for the variant fractions of substitution of one type of fuel with another. The possibility of determining long-term forecast indicators using a time series model is shown.

scholarly journals Aerosol optical depth retrievals at the Izaña Atmospheric Observatory from 1941 to 2013 by using artificial neural networks

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. D. García ◽  
O. E. García ◽  
E. Cuevas ◽  
V. E. Cachorro ◽  
A. Barreto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Aerosol Optical Depth ◽  
Optical Depth ◽  
Mineral Dust ◽  
Dust Particles ◽  
Filter Radiometer ◽  
Artificial Neural

Abstract. This paper presents the reconstruction of a 73-year time series of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 500 nm at the subtropical high-mountain Izaña Atmospheric Observatory (IZO) located in Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain). For this purpose, we have combined AOD estimates from artificial neural networks (ANNs) from 1941 to 2001 and AOD measurements directly obtained with a Precision Filter Radiometer (PFR) between 2003 and 2013. The analysis is limited to summer months (July–August–September), when the largest aerosol load is observed at IZO (Saharan mineral dust particles). The ANN AOD time series has been comprehensively validated against coincident AOD measurements performed with a solar spectrometer Mark-I (1984–2009) and AERONET (AErosol RObotic NETwork) CIMEL photometers (2004–2009) at IZO, obtaining a rather good agreement on a daily basis: Pearson coefficient, R, of 0.97 between AERONET and ANN AOD, and 0.93 between Mark-I and ANN AOD estimates. In addition, we have analysed the long-term consistency between ANN AOD time series and long-term meteorological records identifying Saharan mineral dust events at IZO (synoptical observations and local wind records). Both analyses provide consistent results, with correlations  >  85 %. Therefore, we can conclude that the reconstructed AOD time series captures well the AOD variations and dust-laden Saharan air mass outbreaks on short-term and long-term timescales and, thus, it is suitable to be used in climate analysis.

scholarly journals Long-Term Data Traffic Forecasting for Network Dimensioning in LTE with Short Time Series

Electronics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1151
Author(s):  
Carolina Gijón ◽  
Matías Toril ◽  
Salvador Luna-Ramírez ◽  
María Luisa Marí-Altozano ◽  
José María Ruiz-Avilés
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Data Traffic ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Traffic Forecasting ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Radio Planning

Network dimensioning is a critical task in current mobile networks, as any failure in this process leads to degraded user experience or unnecessary upgrades of network resources. For this purpose, radio planning tools often predict monthly busy-hour data traffic to detect capacity bottlenecks in advance. Supervised Learning (SL) arises as a promising solution to improve predictions obtained with legacy approaches. Previous works have shown that deep learning outperforms classical time series analysis when predicting data traffic in cellular networks in the short term (seconds/minutes) and medium term (hours/days) from long historical data series. However, long-term forecasting (several months horizon) performed in radio planning tools relies on short and noisy time series, thus requiring a separate analysis. In this work, we present the first study comparing SL and time series analysis approaches to predict monthly busy-hour data traffic on a cell basis in a live LTE network. To this end, an extensive dataset is collected, comprising data traffic per cell for a whole country during 30 months. The considered methods include Random Forest, different Neural Networks, Support Vector Regression, Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average and Additive Holt–Winters. Results show that SL models outperform time series approaches, while reducing data storage capacity requirements. More importantly, unlike in short-term and medium-term traffic forecasting, non-deep SL approaches are competitive with deep learning while being more computationally efficient.

scholarly journals Assessing Stream-Aquifer Connectivity in a Coastal California Watershed

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 416
Author(s):  
Bwalya Malama ◽  
Devin Pritchard-Peterson ◽  
John J. Jasbinsek ◽  
Christopher Surfleet
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Low Permeability ◽  
Pumping Tests ◽  
Stream Flows ◽  
The Impact

We report the results of field and laboratory investigations of stream-aquifer interactions in a watershed along the California coast to assess the impact of groundwater pumping for irrigation on stream flows. The methods used include subsurface sediment sampling using direct-push drilling, laboratory permeability and particle size analyses of sediment, piezometer installation and instrumentation, stream discharge and stage monitoring, pumping tests for aquifer characterization, resistivity surveys, and long-term passive monitoring of stream stage and groundwater levels. Spectral analysis of long-term water level data was used to assess correlation between stream and groundwater level time series data. The investigations revealed the presence of a thin low permeability silt-clay aquitard unit between the main aquifer and the stream. This suggested a three layer conceptual model of the subsurface comprising unconfined and confined aquifers separated by an aquitard layer. This was broadly confirmed by resistivity surveys and pumping tests, the latter of which indicated the occurrence of leakage across the aquitard. The aquitard was determined to be 2–3 orders of magnitude less permeable than the aquifer, which is indicative of weak stream-aquifer connectivity and was confirmed by spectral analysis of stream-aquifer water level time series. The results illustrate the importance of site-specific investigations and suggest that even in systems where the stream is not in direct hydraulic contact with the producing aquifer, long-term stream depletion can occur due to leakage across low permeability units. This has implications for management of stream flows, groundwater abstraction, and water resources management during prolonged periods of drought.

scholarly journals The Connections between COVID-19 and the Energy Commodities Prices: Evidence through the Dynamic Time Warping Method

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (13) ◽  
pp. 4024
Author(s):  
Krzysztof Dmytrów ◽  
Joanna Landmesser ◽  
Beata Bieszk-Stolorz
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Dynamic Time Warping ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Price Change ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
The Other ◽  
Time Warping ◽  
Heating Oil ◽  
Dynamic Time

The main objective of the study is to assess the similarity between the time series of energy commodity prices and the time series of daily COVID-19 cases. The COVID-19 pandemic affects all aspects of the global economy. Although this impact is multifaceted, we assess the connections between the number of COVID-19 cases and the energy commodities sector. We analyse these connections by using the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) method. On this basis, we calculate the similarity measure—the DTW distance between the time series—and use it to group the energy commodities according to their price change. Our analysis also includes finding the time shifts between daily COVID-19 cases and commodity prices in subperiods according to the chronology of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings are that commodities such as ULSD, heating oil, crude oil, and gasoline are weakly associated with COVID-19. On the other hand, natural gas, palm oil, CO2 allowances, and ethanol are strongly associated with the development of the pandemic.

scholarly journals A Century of French Railways: The Value of Remote Sensing and VGI in the Fusion of Historical Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 154
Author(s):  
Robert Jeansoulin
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Computer Assisted ◽  
Railway Network ◽  
Reconstruction Process ◽  
Railway Stations ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Public Datasets

Providing long-term data about the evolution of railway networks in Europe may help us understand how European Union (EU) member states behave in the long-term, and how they can comply with present EU recommendations. This paper proposes a methodology for collecting data about railway stations, at the maximal extent of the French railway network, a century ago.The expected outcome is a geocoded dataset of French railway stations (gares), which: (a) links gares to each other, (b) links gares with French communes, the basic administrative level for statistical information. Present stations are well documented in public data, but thousands of past stations are sparsely recorded, not geocoded, and often ignored, except in volunteer geographic information (VGI), either collaboratively through Wikipedia or individually. VGI is very valuable in keeping track of that heritage, and remote sensing, including aerial photography is often the last chance to obtain precise locations. The approach is a series of steps: (1) meta-analysis of the public datasets, (2) three-steps fusion: measure-decision-combination, between public datasets, (3) computer-assisted geocoding for ‘gares’ where fusion fails, (4) integration of additional gares gathered from VGI, (5) automated quality control, indicating where quality is questionable. These five families of methods, form a comprehensive computer-assisted reconstruction process (CARP), which constitutes the core of this paper. The outcome is a reliable dataset—in geojson format under open license—encompassing (by January 2021) more than 10,700 items linked to about 7500 of the 35,500 communes of France: that is 60% more than recorded before. This work demonstrates: (a) it is possible to reconstruct transport data from the past, at a national scale; (b) the value of remote sensing and of VGI is considerable in completing public sources from an historical perspective; (c) data quality can be monitored all along the process and (d) the geocoded outcome is ready for a large variety of further studies with statistical data (demography, density, space coverage, CO2 simulation, environmental policies, etc.).

scholarly journals Maps, trends, and temperature sensitivities—phenological information from and for decreasing numbers of volunteer observers

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ye Yuan ◽  
Stefan Härer ◽  
Tobias Ottenheym ◽  
Gourav Misra ◽  
Alissa Lüpke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Strong Decrease ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Interpolation Accuracy ◽  
Observation Network ◽  
Shiny App ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Autumn And Winter

AbstractPhenology serves as a major indicator of ongoing climate change. Long-term phenological observations are critically important for tracking and communicating these changes. The phenological observation network across Germany is operated by the National Meteorological Service with a major contribution from volunteering activities. However, the number of observers has strongly decreased for the last decades, possibly resulting in increasing uncertainties when extracting reliable phenological information from map interpolation. We studied uncertainties in interpolated maps from decreasing phenological records, by comparing long-term trends based on grid-based interpolated and station-wise observed time series, as well as their correlations with temperature. Interpolated maps in spring were characterized by the largest spatial variabilities across Bavaria, Germany, with respective lowest interpolated uncertainties. Long-term phenological trends for both interpolations and observations exhibited mean advances of −0.2 to −0.3 days year−1 for spring and summer, while late autumn and winter showed a delay of around 0.1 days year−1. Throughout the year, temperature sensitivities were consistently stronger for interpolated time series than observations. Such a better representation of regional phenology by interpolation was equally supported by satellite-derived phenological indices. Nevertheless, simulation of observer numbers indicated that a decline to less than 40% leads to a strong decrease in interpolation accuracy. To better understand the risk of declining phenological observations and to motivate volunteer observers, a Shiny app is proposed to visualize spatial and temporal phenological patterns across Bavaria and their links to climate change–induced temperature changes.

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