The United States National Weather Service Real-Time Flood Forecasting

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro J. Restrepo
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
The United States ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Federal State ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Precipitation Temperature ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Weather Service

The U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) is the agency responsible for flood forecasting. Operational flow forecasting at the NWS is carried out at the 13 river forecasting centers for main river flows. Flash floods, which occur in small localized areas, are forecast at the 122 weather forecast offices. Real-time flood forecasting is a complex process that requires the acquisition and quality control of remotely sensed and ground-based observations, weather and climate forecasts, and operation of reservoirs, water diversions, and returns. Currently used remote-sense observations for operational hydrologic forecasts include satellite observations of precipitation, temperature, snow cover, radar observations of precipitation, and airborne observations of snow water equivalent. Ground-based observations include point precipitation, temperature, snow water equivalent, soil moisture and temperature, river stages, and discharge. Observations are collected by a number of federal, state, municipal, tribal and private entities, and transmitted to the NWS on a daily basis. Once the observations have been checked for quality, a hydrologic forecaster uses the Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS), which takes care of managing the sequence of models and their corresponding data needs along river reaches. Current operational forecasting requires an interaction between the forecaster and the models, in order to adjust differences between the model predictions and the observations, thus improving the forecasts. The final step in the forecast process is the publication of forecasts.

scholarly journals Estimating the Uncertainty in Spatial Estimates of Areal Snow Water Equivalent

1996 ◽  
Vol 27 (5) ◽  
pp. 295-312
Author(s):  
Steven S. Carroll
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
The United States ◽  
Hydrologic Simulation ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
The West ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Snow Model ◽  
Weather Service

With the increased demand for water in the United States, particularly in the West, it is essential that water resources be accurately monitored. Consequently, the National Weather Service (NWS) maintains a set of conceptual, continuous, hydrologic simulation models used to generate extended streamflow predictions, water supply outlooks, and flood forecasts. A vital component of the hydrologic simulation models is a snow accumulation and ablation model that uses observed temperature and precipitation date to simulate snow cover conditions. The simulated model states are updated throughout the snow season using snow water equivalent estimates (estimates of the water content of snowpack) obtained from airborne and ground-based snow water equivalent data. The National Weather Service has developed a spatial geostatistical model to estimate the areal snow water equivalent in a river basin. The estimates, which are obtained for river basins throughout the West, are used to update the snow model. To facilitate accurate updating of the simulated snow water equivalent estimates generated by the snow model, it is necessary to incorporate measures of uncertainty of the areal snow water equivalent estimates. In this research, we derive the expression for the mean-squared prediction error of the areal snow water equivalent estimate and illustrate the methodology with an example from the Upper Colorado River basin.

Evolving the National Weather Service to Build a Weather-Ready Nation: Connecting Observations, Forecasts, and Warnings to Decision-Makers through Impact-Based Decision Support Services

2019 ◽  
Vol 100 (10) ◽  
pp. 1923-1942 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis W. Uccellini ◽  
John E. Ten Hoeve
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Support Services ◽  
The United States ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Supporting Evidence ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Climate Events ◽  
Weather Service

AbstractAs the cost and societal impacts of extreme weather, water, and climate events continue to rise across the United States, the National Weather Service (NWS) has adopted a strategic vision of a Weather-Ready Nation that aims to help all citizens be ready, responsive, and resilient to extreme weather, water, and climate events. To achieve this vision and to meet the NWS mission of saving lives and property and enhancing the national economy, the NWS must improve the accuracy and timeliness of forecasts and warnings, and must directly connect these forecasts and warnings to critical life- and property-saving decisions through the provision of impact-based decision support services (IDSS). While the NWS has been moving in this direction for years, the shift to delivering IDSS holistically requires an agency-wide transformation. This article discusses the elements driving the need for change at the NWS to build a Weather-Ready Nation; the foundational basis for IDSS; ongoing challenges to provide IDSS across federal, state, local, tribal, and territorial levels of government; the path toward evolving the NWS to deliver more effective IDSS; the importance of partnerships within the weather, water, and climate enterprise and with those responsible for public safety to achieve the Weather-Ready Nation vision; and initial supporting evidence and lessons learned from early efforts.

scholarly journals Large scale snow water equivalent status monitoring: comparison of different snow water products in the upper Colorado Basin

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (12) ◽  
pp. 5127-5139 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. A. Artan ◽  
J. P. Verdin ◽  
R. Lietzow
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Water Content ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Passive Microwave ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Trmm Precipitation ◽  
Colorado Basin

Abstract. We illustrate the ability to monitor the status of snow water content over large areas by using a spatially distributed snow accumulation and ablation model that uses data from a weather forecast model in the upper Colorado Basin. The model was forced with precipitation fields from the National Weather Service (NWS) Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data-sets; remaining meteorological model input data were from NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) model output fields. The simulated snow water equivalent (SWE) was compared to SWEs from the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) and SNOwpack TELemetry system (SNOTEL) over a region of the western US that covers parts of the upper Colorado Basin. We also compared the SWE product estimated from the special sensor microwave imager (SSM/I) and scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) to the SNODAS and SNOTEL SWE data-sets. Agreement between the spatial distributions of the simulated SWE with MPE data was high with both SNODAS and SNOTEL. Model-simulated SWE with TRMM precipitation and SWE estimated from the passive microwave imagery were not significantly correlated spatially with either SNODAS or the SNOTEL SWE. Average basin-wide SWE simulated with the MPE and the TRMM data were highly correlated with both SNODAS (r = 0.94 and r = 0.64; d.f. = 14 – d.f. = degrees of freedom) and SNOTEL (r = 0.93 and r = 0.68; d.f. = 14). The SWE estimated from the passive microwave imagery was significantly correlated with the SNODAS SWE (r = 0.55, d.f. = 9, p = 0.05) but was not significantly correlated with the SNOTEL-reported SWE values (r = 0.45, d.f. = 9, p = 0.05).The results indicate the applicability of the snow energy balance model for monitoring snow water content at regional scales when coupled with meteorological data of acceptable quality. The two snow water contents from the microwave imagery (SMMR and SSM/I) and the Utah Energy Balance forced with the TRMM precipitation data were found to be unreliable sources for mapping SWE in the study area; both data sets lacked discernible variability of snow water content between sites as seen in the SNOTEL and SNODAS SWE data. This study will contribute to better understanding the adequacy of data from weather forecast models, TRMM, and microwave imagery for monitoring status of the snow water content.

scholarly journals Experimental measurements for improved understanding and simulation of snowmelt events in the Western Tatra Mountains

2016 ◽  
Vol 64 (4) ◽  
pp. 316-328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavel Krajčí ◽  
Michal Danko ◽  
Jozef Hlavčo ◽  
Zdeněk Kostka ◽  
Ladislav Holko
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Variability ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Tatra Mountains ◽  
Snow Water

AbstractSnow accumulation and melt are highly variable. Therefore, correct modeling of spatial variability of the snowmelt, timing and magnitude of catchment runoff still represents a challenge in mountain catchments for flood forecasting. The article presents the setup and results of detailed field measurements of snow related characteristics in a mountain microcatchment (area 59 000 m2, mean altitude 1509 m a. s. l.) in the Western Tatra Mountains, Slovakia obtained in winter 2015. Snow water equivalent (SWE) measurements at 27 points documented a very large spatial variability through the entire winter. For instance, range of the SWE values exceeded 500 mm at the end of the accumulation period (March 2015). Simple snow lysimeters indicated that variability of snowmelt and discharge measured at the catchment outlet corresponded well with the rise of air temperature above 0°C. Temperature measurements at soil surface were used to identify the snow cover duration at particular points. Snow melt duration was related to spatial distribution of snow cover and spatial patterns of snow radiation. Obtained data together with standard climatic data (precipitation and air temperature) were used to calibrate and validate the spatially distributed hydrological model MIKE-SHE. The spatial redistribution of input precipitation seems to be important for modeling even on such a small scale. Acceptable simulation of snow water equivalents and snow duration does not guarantee correct simulation of peakflow at short-time (hourly) scale required for example in flood forecasting. Temporal variability of the stream discharge during the snowmelt period was simulated correctly, but the simulated discharge was overestimated.

Automated Quality Control Procedure for the "Water Equivalent of Snow on the Ground" Measurement

1995 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 143-151 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas W. Schmidlin ◽  
Daniel S. Wilks ◽  
Megan McKay ◽  
Richard P. Cember
Keyword(s):  
Quality Control ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Data Entry ◽  
The United States ◽  
Control Procedure ◽  
Quality Control Procedure ◽  
Ground Measurement ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Automated Quality Control ◽  
High Winds

Abstract Snow water equivalent (SWE) has been measured daily by the United States National Weather Service since 1952, whenever snow depth is 2 in. (5 cm) or greater. These data are used to develop design snow loads for buildings, for hydrological forecasting, and as an indicator of climate change. To date they have not been subjected comprehensively to quality control. An automated quality control procedure for these data is developed here, which checks daily SWE values for common data entry errors, values beyond reasonable limits, and consistency with daily precipitation and estimated melt. Potential effects of drifting in high winds and of the intrinsic microscale variability of SWE are also considered. An SWE measurement is declared suspicious if a sufficient discrepancy is found with respect to the expected SWE. Data values flagged as potential errors are checked manually. Results of applying the procedure to available SWE data from the northeastern UnitedStates are also summarized.

scholarly journals Influence of snow water equivalent on droughts and their prediction in the USA

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Abel ◽  
Felix Pollinger ◽  
Heiko Paeth
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Original Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Southern Us ◽  
Snow Water

Abstract. Droughts can result in enormous impacts for environment, societies, and economy. In arid or semiarid regions with bordering high mountains, snow is the major source of water supply due to its role as natural water storage. The goal of this study is to examine the influence of snow water equivalent (SWE) on droughts in the United States and find large-scale climatic predictors for SWE and drought. For this, a Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA), also known as Singular Value Decomposition, is performed with snow data from the ERA–Interim reanalysis and the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc–PDSI) as drought index. Furthermore, the relationship of resulting principal components and original data with atmospheric patterns is investigated. The leading mode shows the spatial connection between SWE and drought via downstream water/moisture transport. Especially the Rocky Mountains in Colorado (CR) play a key role for the central and western South, but the Sierra Nevada and even the Appalachian Mountains are relevant, too. The temperature and precipitation based sc–PDSI is able to capture this link because increased soil moisture results in higher evapotranspiration with lower sensible heat and vice versa. A time shifted MCA indicates a prediction skill for drought conditions in spring and early summer for the downstream regions of CR on the basis of SWE in March. Furthermore, the phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation is a good predictor for drought in the southern US and SWE around Colorado. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Pacific North American Pattern is not that clear.

scholarly journals Microwave Snow-Water Equivalent Mapping of the Upper Colorado River Basin, U.S.A. (Abstract)

1987 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. 244-245
Author(s):  
W.J. Campbell ◽  
E.G. Josberger ◽  
P. Gloersen ◽  
A.T.C. Chang
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Crystal Size ◽  
Colorado River ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
The Other ◽  
Colorado River Basin ◽  
Snow Pack ◽  
Upper Colorado River Basin ◽  
Snow Water

During spring 1984, a joint agency research effort was made to explore the use of satellite passive microwave techniques to measure snow-water equivalents in the upper Colorado River basin. This study involved the near real-time acquisition of microwave radiances from the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) aboard the Nimbus-7 satellite, coupled with quasi-simultaneous surface measurements of snow-pack depth and profiles of temperature, density, and crystal size within the basin. A key idea in this study was to compare, for the same space and time-scales, the SMMR synoptic physics data taken in the basin. Such a snow-measurement program was logistically difficult, but two field teams took detailed snow-pit measurements at 18 sites in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming during the last 2 weeks of March, when the snow-pack is normally at its maximum extent and depth. These observations were coupled with snow-water-equivalent measurements from Soil Conservation Service SNOTEL sites. Microwave- gradient ratio, Gr (Gr is the difference of the vertically polarized radiances at 8 mm and 17 mm divided by the sum), maps of the basin were derived in a near real-time mode every 6 days from SMMR observations. The sequential Gr maps showed anomalously low values in the Wyoming snow-pack when compared to the other states. This near real-time information then directed the field teams to Wyoming to carry out an extensive survey, which showed that these values were due to the presence of depth hoar; the average crystal sizes were more than twice as large as in the other areas. SMMR can be used to monitor the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of crystal size in snow-packs. Also, scatter diagrams of snow-water equivalents from the combined snow-pit and SNOTEL observations versus Gr from the Wyoming part, and the Colorado and Utah part, of the basin can be used to estimate snow-water equivalents for various parts of the basin.

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