Evolving the National Weather Service to Build a Weather-Ready Nation: Connecting Observations, Forecasts, and Warnings to Decision-Makers through Impact-Based Decision Support Services

2019 ◽  
Vol 100 (10) ◽  
pp. 1923-1942 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis W. Uccellini ◽  
John E. Ten Hoeve
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Support Services ◽  
The United States ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Supporting Evidence ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Climate Events ◽  
Weather Service

AbstractAs the cost and societal impacts of extreme weather, water, and climate events continue to rise across the United States, the National Weather Service (NWS) has adopted a strategic vision of a Weather-Ready Nation that aims to help all citizens be ready, responsive, and resilient to extreme weather, water, and climate events. To achieve this vision and to meet the NWS mission of saving lives and property and enhancing the national economy, the NWS must improve the accuracy and timeliness of forecasts and warnings, and must directly connect these forecasts and warnings to critical life- and property-saving decisions through the provision of impact-based decision support services (IDSS). While the NWS has been moving in this direction for years, the shift to delivering IDSS holistically requires an agency-wide transformation. This article discusses the elements driving the need for change at the NWS to build a Weather-Ready Nation; the foundational basis for IDSS; ongoing challenges to provide IDSS across federal, state, local, tribal, and territorial levels of government; the path toward evolving the NWS to deliver more effective IDSS; the importance of partnerships within the weather, water, and climate enterprise and with those responsible for public safety to achieve the Weather-Ready Nation vision; and initial supporting evidence and lessons learned from early efforts.

The United States National Weather Service Real-Time Flood Forecasting

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro J. Restrepo
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
The United States ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Federal State ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Precipitation Temperature ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Weather Service

The U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) is the agency responsible for flood forecasting. Operational flow forecasting at the NWS is carried out at the 13 river forecasting centers for main river flows. Flash floods, which occur in small localized areas, are forecast at the 122 weather forecast offices. Real-time flood forecasting is a complex process that requires the acquisition and quality control of remotely sensed and ground-based observations, weather and climate forecasts, and operation of reservoirs, water diversions, and returns. Currently used remote-sense observations for operational hydrologic forecasts include satellite observations of precipitation, temperature, snow cover, radar observations of precipitation, and airborne observations of snow water equivalent. Ground-based observations include point precipitation, temperature, snow water equivalent, soil moisture and temperature, river stages, and discharge. Observations are collected by a number of federal, state, municipal, tribal and private entities, and transmitted to the NWS on a daily basis. Once the observations have been checked for quality, a hydrologic forecaster uses the Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS), which takes care of managing the sequence of models and their corresponding data needs along river reaches. Current operational forecasting requires an interaction between the forecaster and the models, in order to adjust differences between the model predictions and the observations, thus improving the forecasts. The final step in the forecast process is the publication of forecasts.

scholarly journals Institutional Framework for Assessing Water Availability and Allocation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ralph Wurbs
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Allocation ◽  
The United States ◽  
State Legislature ◽  
The State ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Planning System ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Interstate Compacts

Effective water resources management requires assessments of water availability within a framework of complex institutions and infrastructure employed to manage extremely variable stream flow shared by numerous often competing water users and diverse types of use. The Water Rights Analysis Package (WRAP) modeling system is fundamental to water allocation and planning in the state of Texas in the United States. Integration of environmental flow standards into both the modeling system and comprehensive statewide water management is a high priority for continuing research and development. The public domain WRAP software and documentation are generalized for application any place in the world. Lessons learned in developing and implementing the modeling system in Texas are relevant worldwide. The modeling system combines: (1) detailed simulation of water right systems, interstate compacts, international treaties, federal/state/local agreements, and operations of storage and conveyance facilities; (2) simulation of river system hydrology; and (3) statistical frequency and reliability analyses. The continually evolving modeling system has been implemented in Texas by a water management community that includes the state legislature, planning and regulatory agencies, river authorities, water districts, cities, industries, engineering consulting firms, and university researchers. The shared modeling system contributes significantly to integration of water allocation, planning, system operations, and research.

scholarly journals Intercomparison of Mixing Layer Heights from the National Weather Service Ceilometer Test Sites and Collocated Radiosondes

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 129-137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Micheal Hicks ◽  
Belay Demoz ◽  
Kevin Vermeesch ◽  
Dennis Atkinson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Mixing Layer ◽  
The United States ◽  
Arid Climate ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Layer Height ◽  
Hot Arid Climate ◽  
Mixing Layer Height ◽  
Sky Conditions ◽  
Weather Service

AbstractA network of automated weather stations (AWS) with ceilometers can be used to detect sky conditions, aerosol dispersion, and mixing layer heights, in addition to the routine surface meteorological parameters (temperature, pressure, humidity, etc.). Currently, a dense network of AWSs that observe all of these parameters does not exist in the United States even though networks of them with ceilometers exist. These networks normally use ceilometers for determining only sky conditions. Updating AWS networks to obtain those nonstandard observations with ceilometers, especially mixing layer height, across the United States would provide valuable information for validating and improving weather/climate forecast models. In this respect, an aerosol-based mixing layer height detection method, called the combined-hybrid method, is developed and evaluated for its uncertainty characteristics for application in the United States. Four years of ceilometer data from the National Weather Service Ceilometer Proof of Concept Project taken in temperate, maritime polar, and hot/arid climate regimes are utilized in this evaluation. Overall, the method proved to be a strong candidate for estimating mixing layer heights with ceilometer data, with averaged uncertainties of 237 ± 398 m in all tested climate regimes and 69 ± 250 m when excluding the hot/arid climate regime.

scholarly journals Research evaluation support services in biomedical libraries

2018 ◽  
Vol 106 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen Elizabeth Gutzman ◽  
Michael E. Bales ◽  
Christopher W. Belter ◽  
Thane Chambers ◽  
Liza Chan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Biomedical Research ◽  
Support Services ◽  
Research Evaluation ◽  
Clinical Care ◽  
The United States ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Research Libraries ◽  
Group Of Seven ◽  
Service Models ◽  
Paper Review

Objective: The paper review provides a review of current practices related to evaluating support services reported by seven biomedical and research libraries.Methods: A group of seven libraries from the United States and Canada described their experiences with establishing evaluation support services at their libraries. A questionnaire was distributed among the libraries to elicit information as to program development, service and staffing models, campus partnerships, training, products such as tools and reports, and resources used for evaluation support services. The libraries also reported interesting projects, lessons learned, and future plans.Results: The seven libraries profiled in this paper report a variety of service models in providing evaluation support services to meet the needs of campus stakeholders. The service models range from research center cores, partnerships with research groups, and library programs with staff dedicated to evaluation support services. A variety of products and services were described such as an automated tool to develop rank-based metrics, consultation on appropriate metrics to use for evaluation, customized publication and citation reports, resource guides, classes and training, and others. Implementing these services has allowed the libraries to expand their roles on campus and to contribute more directly to the research missions of their institutions.Conclusions: Libraries can leverage a variety of evaluation support services as an opportunity to successfully meet an array of challenges confronting the biomedical research community, including robust efforts to report and demonstrate tangible and meaningful outcomes of biomedical research and clinical care. These services represent a transformative direction that can be emulated by other biomedical and research libraries.

scholarly journals Estimating the Uncertainty in Spatial Estimates of Areal Snow Water Equivalent

1996 ◽  
Vol 27 (5) ◽  
pp. 295-312
Author(s):  
Steven S. Carroll
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
The United States ◽  
Hydrologic Simulation ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
The West ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Snow Model ◽  
Weather Service

With the increased demand for water in the United States, particularly in the West, it is essential that water resources be accurately monitored. Consequently, the National Weather Service (NWS) maintains a set of conceptual, continuous, hydrologic simulation models used to generate extended streamflow predictions, water supply outlooks, and flood forecasts. A vital component of the hydrologic simulation models is a snow accumulation and ablation model that uses observed temperature and precipitation date to simulate snow cover conditions. The simulated model states are updated throughout the snow season using snow water equivalent estimates (estimates of the water content of snowpack) obtained from airborne and ground-based snow water equivalent data. The National Weather Service has developed a spatial geostatistical model to estimate the areal snow water equivalent in a river basin. The estimates, which are obtained for river basins throughout the West, are used to update the snow model. To facilitate accurate updating of the simulated snow water equivalent estimates generated by the snow model, it is necessary to incorporate measures of uncertainty of the areal snow water equivalent estimates. In this research, we derive the expression for the mean-squared prediction error of the areal snow water equivalent estimate and illustrate the methodology with an example from the Upper Colorado River basin.

POLLUTION RESPONSE DURING NATIONAL SPECIAL SECURITY EVENTS: STRIKING A BALANCE BETWEEN SECURITY AND RESPONSE.

2005 ◽  
Vol 2005 (1) ◽  
pp. 943-948
Author(s):  
Joseph Gleason
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Homeland Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Coast Guard ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Department Of Homeland Security ◽  
National Convention ◽  
State And Local ◽  
The U.S

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY During the summer of 2004, the First Coast Guard District in Boston, Massachusetts supported both Presidential political nominating conventions for the 2004 election. The Democratic National Convention was held in Boston, Massachusetts on July 26–29, 2004, and the Republican National Convention was held in New York City from August 30th to September 2, 2004. This was the first time both conventions have taken place within the geographic area of responsibility of a single Coast Guard District. The Secretary of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security declared both of these events as National Special Security Events under Presidential Decision Directive 62 (PDD-62). PDD-62 formalized and delineated the roles and responsibilities of federal agencies in the development of security plans for major events. The 2004 Democratic and Republican Conventions were the first political conventions held in the United States since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. In the months before the Democratic National Convention, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Justice stated that there was credible intelligence from multiple sources indicating that al-Qaeda planned to attempt an attack on the United States during the period leading up to the election. (Joint Statement of Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge and Attorney General John Ashcroft on May 28, 2004) The terrorist attacks on the Madrid rail system were a direct attempt by AI Qaeda to influence the elections in Spain, and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security was going to take all appropriate steps to prevent a similar attack in the United States. (Schmidt and Priest, Washington Post May 26, 2004; Page A02) The 2004 Conventions offered a significant challenge for the Coast Guard and other federal, state, and local agencies that had dual responsibility for coordinating security operations while being prepared to respond to a disaster including oil spills and hazardous substance releases—the combination of what was previously designated as crisis and consequence management under PDD-39. This paper will examine lessons learned from planning and operations in support of the conventions. Having served as the First District Project Officer for the Democratic and Republican National Conventions, this paper is written as my observations of the lessons learned and offers some insight into what went well and possible areas for improvement as I observed throughout the more than 18 months of planning for these events of national significance. The Coast Guard planning and operational support for the Democratic and Republican National Conventions demonstrated the importance of a team approach to planning, interagency coordination and partnerships, pre-event preparedness activities, and pre-deploying personnel and resources for response. It is my hope that the observations contained in this paper can benefit federal, state, and local agencies as they prepare for large significant events in the future including National Special Security Events.

Using the National Weather Service’s impact-based decision support services to prepare for extreme winter storms

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 455-467 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heather R. Hosterman, MEM ◽  
Jeffrey K. Lazo, PhD ◽  
Jennifer M. Sprague-Hilderbrand, JD ◽  
Jeffery E. Adkins, MS
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
Support Services ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Winter Storm ◽  
Winter Storms ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
The Face ◽  
Primary Service

In recent years, the National Weather Service (NWS) increased its focus on providing decision support services to the emergency management community and other core partners to help them understand its forecasts and take appropriate actions in the face of upcoming extreme events. In 2011, the Weather-Ready Nation Strategic Plan began to formalize the NWS approach to impact-based decision support services (IDSS). NWS recognizes IDSS as a primary service and is working to fully and more effectively provide it to federal, state, local, and tribal decision-makers. To do so, it is important that NWS understands how users are benefiting from existing IDSS, even as they look to improve it. This article aims to provide emergency managers (EMs) with an understanding of the efficacy of IDSS. The authors define IDSS and describe the IDSS products and services available during each stage of the emergency-management cycle: preparedness, mitigation, response, and recovery. To demonstrate the role of IDSS for the emergency management community, the authors use a case study analysis to compare two winter storms in the New York City area with similar characteristics but differing in their implementation of IDSS: the December 2010 winter storm (no formal IDSS) and the January 2016 winter storm (formal IDSS). In comparing the winter storm case studies, the authors find that formal IDSS provides EMs and other core partners with accurate, actionable, and consistent weather information and support that allows them to respond to winter storms in a way that reduces impacts to lives and livelihoods.

scholarly journals Usefulness of the United States National Weather Service Radar Display as Rated by Website Users

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 673-691 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michelle E. Saunders ◽  
Kevin D. Ash ◽  
Jennifer M. Collins
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Spatial Clustering ◽  
Weather Radar ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Perceived Usefulness ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Weather Information ◽  
Weather Service

Abstract Weather radar is now widely viewed by the general public in the United States via television, computers/tablets, and smartphones. Anyone can consult near-real-time maps and animations of weather radar data when weather conditions are a factor. However, the usefulness of weather radar data for each user depends on a complex interaction of factors. There have been few studies providing conceptual arguments and empirical data to better understand what the most important factors are and to comprehend patterns of public weather radar use across the United States. The first part of this research provides a basic conceptual framework for research investigating the usefulness of weather radar displays as a source of weather information and as a decision aid. The second part aims to uncover several factors that influence the perceived usefulness rating of the National Weather Service (NWS) website’s weather radar display at both national and regional levels using variables gathered from the 2014 NWS customer satisfaction survey alongside relevant geographic and climatological variables. Data analyses include spatial clustering and ordinal regression utilized within a generalized linear model methodology. Overall, respondents who are more familiar with the NWS and their products, as well as those who indicate they are more likely to take action based on information provided by the NWS, are more likely to find the NWS radar display useful. Geographically, the NWS radar display is most useful to persons residing in the southern United States. Lightning is the most important hazard associated with higher radar usefulness ratings.

scholarly journals An Assessment of National Weather Service Warning Procedures for Ice Storms

2009 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 104-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. Call
Keyword(s):  
Winter Season ◽  
The United States ◽  
Ice Storm ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Intended Audience ◽  
Ice Storms ◽  
High Level ◽  
Communication Policies ◽  
Proactive Communication ◽  
Weather Service

Abstract Ice storms cause substantial damage to the United States every winter season, and the costs have increased in recent years. Accurate prediction and timely dissemination of warnings are effective ways to reduce the effects, because institutions and individuals can take actions to reduce the impacts. The National Weather Service (NWS) is the U.S. government agency charged with issuing warnings of impending ice storms. A survey of NWS warning coordination meteorologists was conducted to assess their awareness of the ice storm hazard, procedures followed to warn for ice storms, and level of contact with members of the community. Several warnings issued in advance of a recent ice storm were also examined. The findings of this research are twofold. First, most meteorologists with the NWS perceive the ice storm hazard with a level of seriousness consistent with climatology. Most follow established procedure and actively engage in warning specific groups before a storm. The second finding was that individual offices maintain a high level of autonomy. While this offers valuable flexibility and the opportunity to try new approaches, there is significant variation in the length and tone of ice storm warnings themselves. Additionally, several offices do not contact outsiders or offer general educational products, which may underserve constituents in their forecast areas. To solve these problems, it is suggested that NWS management encourage and support proactive communication policies. The NWS should also analyze the audience of their warning products and consider guidelines regarding intended audience, tone, and length.

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