scholarly journals Spatio-temporal effects of climate change on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of hummingbird-pollinated plants

2019 ◽  
Vol 124 (3) ◽  
pp. 389-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Paula Araujo Correa-Lima ◽  
Isabela Galarda Varassin ◽  
Narayani Barve ◽  
Victor Pereira Zwiener
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Geographical Distribution ◽  
Plant Species ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Flowering Phenology ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Niche Modelling ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Tropical Plants ◽  
Tropical Plant

Abstract Backgrounds and Aims Tropical plant species are already suffering the effects of climate change and projections warn of even greater changes in the following decades. Of particular concern are alterations in flowering phenology, given that it is considered a fitness trait, part of plant species ecological niche, with potential cascade effects in plant–pollinator interactions. The aim of the study was to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of hummingbird-pollinated plants. Methods We implemented ecological niche modelling (ENM) to investigate the potential impacts of different climate change scenarios on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of 62 hummingbird-pollinated plant species in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Key Results Distribution models indicate future changes in the climatic suitability of their current habitats, suggesting a tendency towards discontinuity, reduction and spatial displacement. Flowering models indicate that climate can influence species phenology in different ways: some species may experience increased flowering suitability whereas others may suffer decreased suitability. Conclusions Our results suggest that hummingbird-pollinated species are prone to changes in their geographical distribution and flowering under different climate scenarios. Such variation may impact the community structure of ecological networks and reproductive success of tropical plants in the near future.

scholarly journals Projections for Mexico’s Tropical Rainforests Considering Ecological Niche and Climate Change

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 119
Author(s):  
Antonio Fidel Santos-Hernández ◽  
Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas ◽  
Diódoro Granados-Sánchez ◽  
Antonio Villanueva-Morales ◽  
Malinali Santacruz-Carrillo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Tropical Rainforest ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Ecological Importance

The tropical rainforest is one of the lushest and most important plant communities in Mexico’s tropical regions, yet its potential distribution has not been studied in current and future climate conditions. The aim of this paper was to propose priority areas for conservation based on ecological niche and species distribution modeling of 22 species with the greatest ecological importance at the climax stage. Geographic records were correlated with bioclimatic temperature and precipitation variables using Maxent and Kuenm software for each species. The best Maxent models were chosen based on statistical significance, complexity and predictive power, and current potential distributions were obtained from these models. Future potential distributions were projected with two climate change scenarios: HADGEM2_ES and GFDL_CM3 models and RCP 8.5 W/m2 by 2075–2099. All potential distributions for each scenario were then assembled for further analysis. We found that 14 tropical rainforest species have the potential for distribution in 97.4% of the landscape currently occupied by climax vegetation (0.6% of the country). Both climate change scenarios showed a 3.5% reduction in their potential distribution and possible displacement to higher elevation regions. Areas are proposed for tropical rainforest conservation where suitable bioclimatic conditions are expected to prevail.

scholarly journals Dynamics of invasive alien plant species in China under climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Vol 129 ◽  
pp. 107919
Author(s):  
Wenqin Tu ◽  
Qinli Xiong ◽  
Xiaoping Qiu ◽  
Yongmei Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Plant Species ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Alien Plant Species ◽  
Alien Plant ◽  
Invasive Alien Plant

scholarly journals Using species distribution models to infer potential climate change-induced range shifts of freshwater fish in south-eastern Australia

2011 ◽  
Vol 62 (9) ◽  
pp. 1043 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nick Bond ◽  
Jim Thomson ◽  
Paul Reich ◽  
Janet Stein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Freshwater Fish ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Models

There are few quantitative predictions for the impacts of climate change on freshwater fish in Australia. We developed species distribution models (SDMs) linking historical fish distributions for 43 species from Victorian streams to a suite of hydro-climatic and catchment predictors, and applied these models to explore predicted range shifts under future climate-change scenarios. Here, we present summary results for the 43 species, together with a more detailed analysis for a subset of species with distinct distributions in relation to temperature and hydrology. Range shifts increased from the lower to upper climate-change scenarios, with most species predicted to undergo some degree of range shift. Changes in total occupancy ranged from –38% to +63% under the lower climate-change scenario to –47% to +182% under the upper climate-change scenario. We do, however, caution that range expansions are more putative than range contractions, because the effects of barriers, limited dispersal and potential life-history factors are likely to exclude some areas from being colonised. As well as potentially informing more mechanistic modelling approaches, quantitative predictions such as these should be seen as representing hypotheses to be tested and discussed, and should be valuable for informing long-term strategies to protect aquatic biota.

Geographical distribution modelling for Neospora caninum and Coxiella burnetii infections in dairy cattle farms in northeastern Spain

2012 ◽  
Vol 141 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. NOGAREDA ◽  
A. JUBERT ◽  
V. KANTZOURA ◽  
M. K. KOUAM ◽  
H. FEIDAS ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dairy Cattle ◽  
Geographical Distribution ◽  
Coxiella Burnetii ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Neospora Caninum ◽  
Ecological Niche Modelling ◽  
Spatial Scan Statistic ◽  
High Concentration ◽  
Niche Modelling ◽  
Cattle Farms

SUMMARYMaximum entropy ecological niche modelling and spatial scan statistic were utilized to predict the geographical range and to investigate clusters of infections for Neospora caninum and Coxiella burnetii in dairy cattle farms in Catalonia, northeastern Spain, using the Maxent and SaTScan programs, respectively. The geographical distribution of Neospora and Coxiella with the highest level of probability (P > 0·60) covers central Catalonia and spreads towards northeastern Catalonia which contains a high concentration of dairy cattle farms. The most important environmental factor that contributed to the ecological niche modelling was precipitation of driest month followed by elevation. Significant clusters (P < 0·001) were detected for Neospora and Coxiella infections in the western and eastern regions of Catalonia, respectively.

scholarly journals Predicting potential impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution of mountainous selaginellas in Java, Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN ◽  
JATNA SUPRIATNA ◽  
NISYAWATI NISYAWATI ◽  
ILYAS NURSAMSI ◽  
SUTARNO SUTARNO ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Geographical Distribution ◽  
Flowering Plant ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Mountainous Areas ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
High Level ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. Setyawan AD, Supriatna J, Nisyawati, Nursamsi I, Sutarno, Sugiyarto, Sunarto, Pradan P, Budiharta S, Pitoyo A, Suhardono S, Setyono P, Indrawan M. 2020. Predicting potential impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution of mountainous selaginellas in Java, Indonesia. Biodiversitas 21: 4866-4877. Selaginella is a genus of non-flowering plant that requires water as a medium for fertilization, as such, it prefers mountainous areas with high level of humidity. Such unique ecosystem of Selaginella is available in some parts of Java Island, Indonesia, especially in highland areas with altitude of more than 1,000 meters above sea level. However, most mountainous areas in Java are likely to be affected by climate change due to global warming, threatening the habitat and sustainability of Selaginella. This study aimed to investigate the impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution of Selaginella opaca Warb. and Selaginella remotifolia Spring. In doing so, we predicted the suitable habitats of both species using Species Distribution Model (SDM) tool of MaxEnt under present climate conditions and future conditions under four climate change scenarios. Species occurrence data were obtained from fieldworks conducted in 2007-2014 across Java Island (283 points: 144 and 139 points for S. opaca and S. remotifolia, respectively) and combined with secondary data from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) (52 points: 35 and 17 points for S. opaca and S. remotifolia, respectively), and this dataset was used to model present geographical distribution using environmental and bioclimatic variables. Then, future distribution was predicted under four climate change scenarios: i.e. RCP (Representative Carbon Pathways) 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2080). The results of the models showed that the extent of suitable habitats of S. opaca and S. remotifolia will be reduced between 1.8-11.4% due to changes in climatic condition, and in the areas with high level of habitat suitability, including Mount Sumbing, Mount Sindoro and Mount Dieng (Dieng Plateau), the reduction can reach up to 60%. This study adds another context of evidence to understand the potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity, especially on climate-sensitive species, such as Selaginella, in climate-risk regions like mountainous areas of Java Island.

scholarly journals Using Ecological Niche Modelling to Predict Climate Change Responses of Ten Key Fishery Species in Aotearoa New Zealand

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Amber Brooks
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Marine Species ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Niche Modelling ◽  
Aotearoa New Zealand ◽  
Business As Usual ◽  
Fishery Species

<p>The long-term sustainability and security of food sources for an increasing human population will become more challenging as climate change alters growing and harvesting conditions. Significant infrastructure changes could be required to continue to supply food from traditional sources. Fisheries remain the only major protein supply directly harvested from the wild. This likely makes it the most sensitive primary sector to climate change. Overfishing is an additional concern for harvested species. There is a need to anticipate how marine species may respond to climate change to help inform how management might best be prepared for shifting distributions and productivity levels. The most common response of mobile marine species to changes in climate is an alteration of their geographic distributions and/or range shifts. Predicting changes to a species’ range could promote timely development of more sustainable harvest strategies. Additionally, these predictions could reduce potential conflict when different management areas experience increasing or decreasing catches. Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) is a helpful approach for predicting the response of key fishery species to climate change scenarios.  The overall aim of this research was to use the maximum entropy method, Maxent, to perform ENM on 10 commercially important fishery species, managed under the Quota management system in Aotearoa (New Zealand). Occurrence data from trawl surveys were used along with climate layers from Bio-ORACLE to estimate the species niche and then predict distributions in four different future climate scenarios, called Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios (RCPS), in both 2050 and 2100. With little consensus over the best settings and way to apply the Maxent method, hundreds of variations were tried for each species, and the best model chosen from trial experimentation.  In general, Maxent performed well, with evaluation metrics for best models showing little omission error and good discriminatory ability. There was, however, considerable variation between the different species responses to the future climate scenarios. Consistent with other studies, species able to tolerate sub-tropical or temperate conditions tended to expand southward, while subantarctic species generally contracted within their preferred environment. The increasing emissions or ‘business as usual’ climate change scenario consistently presented the most extreme difference from modern predictions. Northern regions of prediction, where sub-tropical or temperate species increased in probability of presence, were often highly uncertain due to novel conditions in future environments. Southern regions were usually less uncertain. Surface temperature consistently influenced base models more so than any other covariates considered, with the exception of bathymetry.  Some predictions showed common areas of relative stability, such as hoki and ling on the southern Chatham Rise, potentially indicating future refugia. The preservation of habitats in the putative refugia may be important for long-term fisheries resilience. Furthermore, most species that showed large predicted declines are currently heavily harvested and managed. Overfishing could compound the effects of climate change and put these fisheries at serious risk of collapse. Identification of potential refugial areas could aid strategy adjustments to fishing practice to help preserve stock viability. Additionally, when some species shift, there are areas where new fisheries may emerge.  This study offers a perspective of what future distributions could be like under different climate scenarios. The ENM predicts that the ‘business as usual’ scenario, where ‘greenhouse gas’ emissions continue to rise throughout the century, will have a negative impact on multiple aspects of distribution. However, in a reduced emissions scenario, less extreme range shifts are predicted. This study has provided a predictive approach to how fisheries in Aotearoa might change. The next step is to determine whether there is any evidence for the beginning of these changes and to consider how fisheries might best adapt.</p>

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