scholarly journals Socio-ecological factors shape the opportunity for polygyny in a migratory songbird

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 598-609
Author(s):  
David Canal ◽  
Lotte Schlicht ◽  
Javier Manzano ◽  
Carlos Camacho ◽  
Jaime Potti
Keyword(s):  
Time Window ◽  
Ecological Factors ◽  
Spatial Proximity ◽  
Temporal Separation ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Local Networks ◽  
Open Questions ◽  
Short Time Window ◽  
Primary Nest ◽  
Migratory Songbird

Abstract Why females pair with already mated males and the mechanisms behind variation in such polygynous events within and across populations and years remain open questions. Here, we used a 19-year data set from a pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) population to investigate, through local networks of breeding pairs, the socio-ecological factors related to the probability of being involved in a polygynous event in both sexes. Then, we examined how the breeding contexts experienced by individuals shaped the spatial and temporal separation between broods of polygamous males. The probability of polygyny decreased with the distance between nests. Indeed, secondary females were often close neighbors of primary females, although the distance between both nests increased slightly with increasing synchrony between them. The probability of polygyny was also related to the breeding time of individuals because early breeding males were more likely to become polygynous with late-breeding females. Throughout the season, there was substantial variation in the temporal separation between primary and secondary broods, and this separation was, in turn, related to the breeding asynchrony of the polygamous males (in the primary nest) relative to the neighbors. Polygynous males that bred late relative to their neighbors had a short time window to attract a second female and, thus, the breeding interval between their primary and secondary broods was reduced. Overall, the spatial proximity between polygynous males’ broods and, if the opportunity existed, their temporal staggering are compatible with a male strategy to maximize paternity and reduce the costs of caring for two broods, though the effect of female’s interest, either primary or secondary, cannot be fully ruled out. We highlight that a comprehensive assessment of the breeding contexts faced by individuals is essential to understand mating decisions and reconcile the discrepancies raised by previous work on social polygyny.

scholarly journals Stochastic generation of spatially coherent river discharge peaks for large-scale, event-based flood risk assessment

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dirk Diederen ◽  
Ye Liu ◽  
Ben Gouldby ◽  
Ferdinand Diermanse ◽  
Sergiy Vorogushyn
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Insurance Industry ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
Short Time Window

Abstract. Flood risk assessments are required for long-term planning, e.g. for investments in infrastructure and other urban capital. Vorogushyn et al. (2018) call for new methods in large-scale Flood Risk Assessment (FRA) to enable the capturing of system interactions and feedbacks. With the increase of computational power, large-scale, continental FRAs have recently become feasible (Ward et al., 2013; Alfieri et al., 2014; Dottori et al., 2016; Vousdoukas, 2016; Winsemius et al., 2016; Paprotny et al., 2017). Flood events cause large damages worldwide (Desai et al., 2015). Moreover, widespread flooding can potentially cause large damage in a short time window. Therefore, large-scale (e.g. pan-European) events and for instance maximum probable damages are of interest, in particular for the (re)insurance industry, because they want to know the chance of their widespread portfolio of assets getting affected by large-scale events (Jongman et al., 2014). Using a pan-European data set of modelled, gridded river discharge data, we tracked discharge waves in all major European river basins. We synthetically generated a large catalogue of synthetic, pan-European events, consisting of spatially coherent discharge peak sets.

The social wasp Vespula germanica (Fabricius) (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) population dynamics in England over 39 years.

2018 ◽  
Vol 154 (2) ◽  
pp. 149-155
Author(s):  
Michael Archer
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Dynamic ◽  
Ecological Factors ◽  
Social Wasp ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Vespula Germanica ◽  
The Social ◽  
Minimum Number ◽  
Suction Traps

1. Yearly records of worker Vespula germanica (Fabricius) taken in suction traps at Silwood Park (28 years) and at Rothamsted Research (39 years) are examined. 2. Using the autocorrelation function (ACF), a significant negative 1-year lag followed by a lesser non-significant positive 2-year lag was found in all, or parts of, each data set, indicating an underlying population dynamic of a 2-year cycle with a damped waveform. 3. The minimum number of years before the 2-year cycle with damped waveform was shown varied between 17 and 26, or was not found in some data sets. 4. Ecological factors delaying or preventing the occurrence of the 2-year cycle are considered.

scholarly journals Phenology-mediated effects of phenotype on the probability of social polygyny and its fitness consequences in a migratory passerine

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
David Canal ◽  
Lotte Schlicht ◽  
Simone Santoro ◽  
Carlos Camacho ◽  
Jesús Martínez-Padilla ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ecological Factors ◽  
Local Networks ◽  
Mediated Effects ◽  
Fitness Consequences ◽  
Phenotypic Quality ◽  
Lifetime Number ◽  
Local Breeding ◽  
Individual Mating ◽  
Sexual Traits ◽  
Secondary Female

AbstractWhy females engage in social polygyny remains an unresolved question in species where the resources provided by males maximize female fitness. In these systems, the ability of males to access several females, as well as the willingness of females to mate with an already mated male, and the benefits of this choice, may be constrained by the socio-ecological factors experienced at the local scale. Here, we used a 19-year dataset from an individual-monitored population of pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) to establish local networks of breeding pairs. Then, we examined whether the probability of becoming socially polygynous and of mating with an already mated male (thus becoming a secondary female) is influenced by morphological and sexual traits as proxies of individual quality relative to the neighbours. We also evaluated whether social polygyny is adaptive for females by examining the effect of females’ mating status (polygamously-mated vs monogamously-mated) on direct (number of recruits in a given season) and indirect (lifetime number of fledglings produced by these recruits) fitness benefits. The phenotypic quality of individuals, by influencing their breeding asynchrony relative to their neighbours, mediated the probability of being involved in a polygynous event. Individuals in middle-age (2–3 years), with large wings and, in the case of males, with conspicuous sexual traits, started to breed earlier than their neighbours. By breeding locally early, males increased their chances of becoming polygynous, while females reduced their chances of mating with an already mated male. Our results suggest that secondary females may compensate the fitness costs, if any, of sharing a mate, since their number of descendants did not differ from monogamous females. We emphasize the need of accounting for local breeding settings (ecological, social, spatial, and temporal) and the phenotypic composition of neighbours to understand individual mating decisions.

scholarly journals Mobility patterns are associated with experienced income segregation in large US cities

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Esteban Moro ◽  
Dan Calacci ◽  
Xiaowen Dong ◽  
Alex Pentland
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Mobility Model ◽  
Coarse Grained ◽  
Spatial Proximity ◽  
Mobility Patterns ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Residential Patterns ◽  
Income Segregation ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Mobility Behavior

AbstractTraditional understanding of urban income segregation is largely based on static coarse-grained residential patterns. However, these do not capture the income segregation experience implied by the rich social interactions that happen in places that may relate to individual choices, opportunities, and mobility behavior. Using a large-scale high-resolution mobility data set of 4.5 million mobile phone users and 1.1 million places in 11 large American cities, we show that income segregation experienced in places and by individuals can differ greatly even within close spatial proximity. To further understand these fine-grained income segregation patterns, we introduce a Schelling extension of a well-known mobility model, and show that experienced income segregation is associated with an individual’s tendency to explore new places (place exploration) as well as places with visitors from different income groups (social exploration). Interestingly, while the latter is more strongly associated with demographic characteristics, the former is more strongly associated with mobility behavioral variables. Our results suggest that mobility behavior plays an important role in experienced income segregation of individuals. To measure this form of income segregation, urban researchers should take into account mobility behavior and not only residential patterns.

scholarly journals 231 A SHORT TIME WINDOW TO PROFIT FROM IL-4 PLUS IL-10 ADDITION TO PROTECT CARTILAGE FROM BLOOD-INDUCED DAMAGE IN VITRO

2011 ◽  
Vol 19 ◽  
pp. S113
Author(s):  
M.E. van Meegeren ◽  
N.W. Jansen ◽  
G. Roosendaal ◽  
S.C. Mastbergen ◽  
F.P. Lafeber
Keyword(s):  
Time Window ◽  
Short Time Window ◽  
Short Time

scholarly journals 383. Feasibility of Specimen Self-collection in Young Children Undergoing SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance for In-person Learning

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S293-S293
Author(s):  
Jonathan Altamirano ◽  
Grace Tam ◽  
Marcela Lopez ◽  
India Robinson ◽  
Leanne Chun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Young Children ◽  
Time Window ◽  
School Administrators ◽  
Error Rates ◽  
Independent Observer ◽  
Specimen Collection ◽  
Timing Data ◽  
Short Time Window ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Background While pediatric cases of COVID-19 are at low risk for adverse events, schoolchildren should be considered for surveillance as they can become infected at school and serve as sources of household or community transmission. Our team assessed the feasibility of young children self-collecting SARS-CoV-2 samples for surveillance testing in an educational setting. Methods Students at a K-8 school were tested weekly for SARS-CoV-2 from September 2020 - June 2021. Error rates were collected from September 2020 - January 2021. Clinical staff provided all students with instructions for anterior nares specimen self-collection and then observed them to ensure proper technique. Instructions included holding the sterile swab while making sure not to touch the tip, inserting the swab into their nostril until they start to feel resistance, and rubbing the swab in four circles before repeating the process in their other nostril. An independent observer timed random sample self-collections from April - June 2021. Results 2,590 samples were collected from 209 students during the study period when data on error rates were collected. Errors occurred in 3.3% of all student encounters (n=87). Error rates over time are shown in Figure 1, with the highest rate occurring on the first day of testing (n=20/197, 10.2%) and the lowest in January 2021 (n=1/202, 0.5%). 2,574 visits for sample self-collection occurred during the study period when independent timing data was collected (April - June 2021). Of those visits, 7.5% (n=193) were timed. The average duration of each visit was 70 seconds. Figure 1. Swab Error Rates Over Time Conclusion Pediatric self-collected lower nasal swabs are a viable and easily tolerated specimen collection method for SARS-CoV-2 surveillance in school settings, as evidenced by the low error rate and short time window of sample self-collection during testing. School administrators should expect errors to drop quickly after implementing testing. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures

scholarly journals Time Windows Voting Classifier for COVID-19 Mortality Prediction

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
TIONG GOH ◽  
MengJun Liu
Keyword(s):  
Time Window ◽  
Majority Vote ◽  
Time Windows ◽  
Mortality Prediction ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Risk Of Mortality ◽  
Machine Learning Model ◽  
Partitioned Data ◽  
Considerable Impact ◽  
Extended Duration

The ability to predict COVID-19 patients' level of severity (death or survival) enables clinicians to prioritise treatment. Recently, using three blood biomarkers, an interpretable machine learning model was developed to predict the mortality of COVID-19 patients. The method was reported to be suffering from performance stability because the identified biomarkers are not consistent predictors over an extended duration. To sustain performance, the proposed method partitioned data into three different time windows. For each window, an end-classifier, a mid-classifier and a front-classifier were designed respectively using the XGboost single tree approach. These time window classifiers were integrated into a majority vote classifier and tested with an isolated test data set. The voting classifier strengthens the overall performance of 90% cumulative accuracy from a 14 days window to a 21 days prediction window. An additional 7 days of prediction window can have a considerable impact on a patient's chance of survival. This study validated the feasibility of the time window voting classifier and further support the selection of biomarkers features set for the early prognosis of patients with a higher risk of mortality.

scholarly journals Harvest strategies for the elimination of low prevalence wildlife diseases

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Atle Mysterud ◽  
Hildegunn Viljugrein ◽  
Christer M. Rolandsen ◽  
Aniruddha V. Belsare
Keyword(s):  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Rangifer Tarandus ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Disease Prevalence ◽  
Management Approach ◽  
Wildlife Diseases ◽  
Demographic Groups ◽  
Short Time Window ◽  
Transmission Period ◽  
Low Prevalence

The intensive harvesting of hosts is often the only practicable strategy for controlling emerging wildlife diseases. Several harvesting approaches have been explored theoretically with the objective of lowering transmission rates, decreasing the transmission period or specifically targeting spatial disease clusters or high-risk demographic groups. Here, we present a novel model-based approach to evaluate alternative harvest regimes, in terms of demographic composition and rates, intended to increase the probability to remove all infected individuals in the population during the early phase of an outbreak. We tested the utility of the method for the elimination of chronic wasting disease based on empirical data for reindeer ( Rangifer tarandus ) in Norway, in populations with (Nordfjella) and without (Hardangervidda) knowledge about exact disease prevalence and population abundance. Low and medium harvest intensities were unsuccessful in eliminating the disease, even at low prevalence. High-intensity harvesting had a high likelihood of eliminating the disease, but probability was strongly influenced by the disease prevalence. We suggest that the uncertainty about disease prevalence can be mitigated by using an adaptive management approach: forecast from models after each harvest season with updated data, derive prevalence estimates and forecast further harvesting. We identified the problems arising from disease surveillance with large fluctuations in harvesting pressure and hence sample sizes. The elimination method may be suitable for pathogens that cause long-lasting infections and with slow epidemic growth, but the method should only be attempted if there is a low risk of reinfection, either by a new disease introduction event (e.g. dispersing hosts) or due to environmental reservoirs. Our simulations highlighted the short time window when such a strategy is likely to be successful before approaching near complete eradication of the population.

Single-station SVD-based polarization filtering of ground roll: Perfection and investigation of limitations and pitfalls

Geophysics ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 77 (2) ◽  
pp. V41-V59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olena Tiapkina ◽  
Martin Landrø ◽  
Yuriy Tyapkin ◽  
Brian Link
Keyword(s):  
Time Window ◽  
Synthetic Data ◽  
Vertical Component ◽  
Horizontal Component ◽  
Frequency Bandwidth ◽  
Polarization Filter ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Single Station ◽  
Ground Roll ◽  
Polarization Filtering

The advent of single receiver point, multi-component geophones has necessitated that ground roll be removed in the processing flow rather than through acquisition design. A wide class of processing methods for ground-roll elimination is polarization filtering. A number of these methods use singular value decomposition (SVD) or some related transformations. We focus on a single-station SVD-based polarization filter that we consider to be one of the best in the industry. The method is comprised of two stages: (1) ground-roll detection and (2) ground-roll estimation and filtering. To detect the ground roll, a special attribute dependent on the singular values of a three-column matrix formed by a sliding time window is used. The ground roll is approximated and subtracted using the first two eigenimages of this matrix. To limit the possible damage to the signal, the filter operates within the record intervals where the ground roll is detected and within the ground-roll frequency bandwidth only. We improve the ground-roll detector to make it theoretically insensitive to ambient noise and more sensitive to the presence of ground roll. The advantage of the new detector is demonstrated on synthetic and field data sets. We estimate theoretically and with synthetic data the attenuation of the underlying reflections that can be caused by the polarization filter. We show that the underlying signal always loses almost all the energy on the vertical component and on the horizontal component in the ground-roll propagation plane and within the ground-roll frequency bandwidth. The only signal component, if it exists, that can retain a significant part of its energy is the horizontal component orthogonal to the above plane. When 2D 3C field operations are conducted, the signal particle motion can deviate from the ground-roll propagation plane and can therefore retain some of its energy due to a set of offline reflections. In the case of 3D 3C seismic surveys, the reflected signal always deviates from the ground-roll propagation plane on the receiver lines that do not contain the source. This is confirmed with a 2.5D 3C synthetic data set. We discuss when the ability of the filter to effectively subtract the ground roll may, or may not, allow us to ignore the inevitable harm that is done to the underlying reflected waves.

Azimuth estimation capabilities of the ARCESS regional seismic array

1993 ◽  
Vol 83 (4) ◽  
pp. 1213-1231
Author(s):  
Dorthe B. Carr
Keyword(s):  
Time Window ◽  
Source Region ◽  
Event Data ◽  
Small Aperture ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Low Frequencies ◽  
Source Regions ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Local Geology ◽  
Regional Arrays

Abstract The effect of local geology and noise conditions on the performance of a small regional array is investigated by comparing the regional Pn backazimuth estimation capabilities of the ARCESS array in northern Norway to the NORESS array. A broadband frequency-wavenumber estimator was used to calculate backazimuths from the Pn arrival for each of 203 regional events recorded at ARCESS while varying element spacing, frequency band, and time window. Most of the errors in backazimuth are less than 20° when appropriate parameter combinations are used, and mean backazimuth errors are close to zero. The best results are obtained using a 13-element configuration that has a 1.4 km aperture and a maximum station spacing of about 600 m. With the 13-element configuration and the data filtered to include frequencies between 3 and 10 Hz, the mean errors for the 203 event data set are less than 0.9°, and S.D. are as small as 16.9°. There are differences seen in the backazimuth estimation capabilities of ARCESS and NORESS with specific parameter combinations. The larger aperture configurations (10- and 17-elements) have smaller means at ARCESS, although the precision is about the same. The estimates using unfiltered data at ARCESS are poor, because of local noise conditions that increase the level of background noise at low frequencies. Overall the precision is better at NORESS, but both regional arrays have the best results using the 13-element configuration and filtering the data in the middle frequency range (3 to 10 Hz). Other factors investigated include SNR and source region. Backazimuth estimation statistics improve if only events with 5 dB of SNR are included in the data set at both ARCESS and NORESS. The mean errors move closer to zero and standard deviations decrease. The differences between the two arrays are not as pronounced. There are some path effects from different source regions around the ARCESS array. However, combinations of small aperture configurations and middle (3 to 10 Hz) frequency bands work well for events over the entire distance range of 30 to 1200 km. ARCESS and NORESS have similar backazimuth estimation capabilities even though there are differences in the local geology and noise conditions. Because a 13-element configuration produces reliable results for both arrays, it would be reasonable to reduce the number of elements in a regional array. This in turn will reduce the costs associated with building and deploying small regional arrays.

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