Protective Effects of Familial Longevity Decrease with Age and Become Negligible for Centenarians

Lower Mortality ◽

Protective Effects ◽

Hazards Model ◽

Specific Mortality ◽

Theory Of Aging ◽

Familial Longevity

Abstract It is known that biological relatives of long-lived individuals demonstrate lower mortality and longer lifespan compared to relatives of shorter-lived individuals, and at least part of this advantage is likely to be genetic. Less information, however, is available about effects of familial longevity on age-specific mortality trajectories. We compared mortality patterns after age 50 years for 10,045 siblings of U.S. centenarians and 12,308 siblings of shorter-lived individuals (died at age 65 years). Similar comparisons were made for sons and daughters of longer-lived parents (both parents lived 80 years and more) and shorter-lived parents (both parents lived less than 80 years) within each group of siblings. Although relatives of longer-lived individuals have lower mortality at younger ages compared to relatives of shorter lived individuals, this mortality advantage practically disappears by age 100 years. To validate this observation further, we analyzed survival of 3,408 U.S. centenarians born in 1890-97 with known information on maternal and paternal lifespan. We found using the Cox proportional hazards model that both maternal and paternal longevity (lifespan 80+ years) is not significantly associated with survival after age 100 years. The results are compatible with the predictions of reliability theory of aging suggesting higher initial levels of system redundancy (reserves) in individuals with protective familial/genetic background and hence lower initial mortality. Heterogeneity hypothesis is another possible explanation for the observed phenomena.

Prediagnosis plasma concentrations of enterolactone and survival after colorectal cancer: the Danish Diet, Cancer and Health cohort

British Journal Of Nutrition ◽

10.1017/s0007114518002143 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 122 (5) ◽

pp. 552-563 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Cecilie Kyrø ◽

Kirsten Frederiksen ◽

Marianne Holm ◽

Natalja P. Nørskov ◽

Knud E. B. Knudsen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Colorectal Cancer ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Plasma Concentrations ◽

Limited Attention ◽

Hazards Model ◽

Specific Mortality ◽

Cancer Specific Mortality

AbstractThe association between lifestyle and survival after colorectal cancer has received limited attention. The female sex hormone, oestrogen, has been associated with lower colorectal cancer risk and mortality after colorectal cancer. Phyto-oestrogens are plant compounds with structure similar to oestrogen, and the main sources in Western populations are plant lignans. We investigated the association between the main lignan metabolite, enterolactone and survival after colorectal cancer among participants in the Danish Diet, Cancer and Health cohort. Prediagnosis plasma samples and lifestyle data, and clinical data from time of diagnosis from 416 women and 537 men diagnosed with colorectal cancer were used. Enterolactone was measured in plasma using a liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry (LC–MS/MS) method. Participants were followed from date of diagnosis until death or end of follow-up. During this time, 210 women and 325 men died (170 women and 215 men died due to colorectal cancer). The Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % CI. Enterolactone concentrations were associated with lower colorectal cancer-specific mortality among women (HRper doubling: 0·88, 95 % CI 0·80, 0·97, P=0·0123). For men, on the contrary, enterolactone concentrations were associated with higher colorectal cancer-specific mortality (HRper doubling: 1·10, 95 % CI 1·01, 1·21, P=0·0379). The use of antibiotics affects enterolactone production, and the associations between higher enterolactone and lower colorectal cancer-specific mortality were more pronounced among women who did not use antibiotics (analysis on a subset). Our results suggest that enterolactone is associated with lower risk of mortality among women, but the opposite association was found among men.

Mortality of Spanish Former Elite Soccer Players and Coaches

International Journal of Sports Medicine ◽

10.1055/a-1308-3116 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

José Carlos Diz ◽

Santiago Iglesias Sueiro ◽

Eva Diz Ferreira ◽

Miguel Adriano Sanchez-Lastra ◽

Carlos Ayán

Keyword(s):

General Population ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Soccer Players ◽

Lower Mortality ◽

Hazards Model ◽

Kaplan Meier ◽

Mortality Hazard Ratio

AbstractWe analyzed whether male Spanish elite soccer players live longer than the general population. Secondly, we compared their mortality with a cohort of soccer players who continued working as soccer elite coaches after retirement. Using age and calendar-date adjusted life tables, we analyzed the mortality hazard ratio of 1333 Spanish male players born before 1950, and who played in elite leagues from 1939, compared with the Spanish population. Using Cox proportional hazards model we compared their mortality with a cohort of 413 players who continued as coaches. Players showed significantly lower mortality than the general population, but this advantage decreased with advanced age, disappearing after 80 years. Coaches showed a similar pattern. Comparing players versus coaches, date of birth and years as professional were associated with survival, but debut age and player position were not. Unadjusted median survival time was 79.81 years (IQR 72.37–85.19) for players and 81.8 years (IQR 74.55–86.73) for coaches. Kaplan-Meier estimator adjusted for covariables showed no difference between cohorts (p=0.254). In conclusion, former Spanish male players showed lower mortality than the general population, but this effect disappeared after 80 years of age. Continuing their career as coaches after retirement from playing did not confer major benefits.

Factors influencing prostate cancer specific mortality in patients receiving delayed androgen deprivation therapy for metastasis after biochemical recurrence following radical prostatectomy

Journal of Clinical Oncology ◽

10.1200/jco.2006.24.18_suppl.4571 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 24 (18_suppl) ◽

pp. 4571-4571 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

D. V. Makarov ◽

B. J. Trock ◽

E. B. Humphreys ◽

L. A. Mangold ◽

M. A. Carducci ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Prostate Cancer ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Failure Times ◽

Factors Influencing ◽

Hazards Model ◽

Psa Failure ◽

Specific Mortality

4571 Background: For men developing PSA failure after radical prostatectomy (RP), administration of immediate androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) has not been shown to improve survival compared to delaying ADT until evidence of metastatic disease. We evaluated factors influencing prostate cancer (PCa) specific mortality (PCSM) in a cohort of PSA era patients developing metastases after RP treated with delayed ADT. Methods: 3,658 men had RP by a single surgeon at Johns Hopkins Hospital from 4/82 until 6/05. 553 had PSA failure. 216 developed radiographically evident distant metastasis. Of these, 91 men formed the study cohort: initially treated during the PSA era (1987–2005), received ADT only after documented metastasis, and having complete data. 41 of these men died. Median failure times were estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method. Prognostic impact was estimated as the hazard ratio (HR) derived from the Cox proportional hazards model. Results: Median followup from RP was 10 yrs (range 2–18). Actuarial median failure times are: 1 yr from RP to PSA failure (range 1–11), 32 mos from PSA failure to metastasis (range 0–129), 79 mos from metastasis to death (range 7–181), and 13 yrs from RP to death (range 2–18). The following variables were significant prognostic factors for PCSM in univariate analyses: Pain at diagnosis of metastases (p < 0.01), time from RP to metastasis (p = 0.02), hematocrit at metastasis (p < 0.01) and PSADT <3 mos during the 2 years prior to metastasis (p < 0.01). A multivariable Cox proportional hazards model demonstrated the following independent predictors of PCSM: pain (HR = 10.5 p < 0.01), PSA at metastasis ≥100 ng/mL (HR = 5.3 p < 0.01) and PSADT < 3 months (HR = 7.1 p < 0.01). PSADT determined in the two years immediately after PSA failure (HR = 1.0 p = 0.37) and time from RP to bone metastasis (HR = 1.0 p = 0.80) were not independent predictors of PCSM. Conclusion: Men receiving delayed ADT for development of metastasis after RP may have a prolonged survival time (13 yrs post RP - range 2–18). Optimizing the time for ADT in these patients requires well-designed, prospective randomized studies. Our data may facilitate the selection of patients and thresholds for implementation of ADT. No significant financial relationships to disclose.

Risk factors associated with major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events following percutaneous coronary intervention: a 10-year follow-up comparing random survival forest and Cox proportional-hazards model

BMC Cardiovascular Disorders ◽

10.1186/s12872-020-01834-1 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Maryam Farhadian ◽

Sahar Dehdar Karsidani ◽

Azadeh Mozayanimonfared ◽

Hossein Mahjub

Keyword(s):

Proportional Hazards ◽

Coronary Intervention ◽

Hazards Model ◽

Cerebrovascular Events ◽

Long Term Follow Up ◽

Stent Length

Abstract Background Due to the limited number of studies with long term follow-up of patients undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI), we investigated the occurrence of Major Adverse Cardiac and Cerebrovascular Events (MACCE) during 10 years of follow-up after coronary angioplasty using Random Survival Forest (RSF) and Cox proportional hazards models. Methods The current retrospective cohort study was performed on 220 patients (69 women and 151 men) undergoing coronary angioplasty from March 2009 to March 2012 in Farchshian Medical Center in Hamadan city, Iran. Survival time (month) as the response variable was considered from the date of angioplasty to the main endpoint or the end of the follow-up period (September 2019). To identify the factors influencing the occurrence of MACCE, the performance of Cox and RSF models were investigated in terms of C index, Integrated Brier Score (IBS) and prediction error criteria. Results Ninety-six patients (43.7%) experienced MACCE by the end of the follow-up period, and the median survival time was estimated to be 98 months. Survival decreased from 99% during the first year to 39% at 10 years' follow-up. By applying the Cox model, the predictors were identified as follows: age (HR = 1.03, 95% CI 1.01–1.05), diabetes (HR = 2.17, 95% CI 1.29–3.66), smoking (HR = 2.41, 95% CI 1.46–3.98), and stent length (HR = 1.74, 95% CI 1.11–2.75). The predictive performance was slightly better by the RSF model (IBS of 0.124 vs. 0.135, C index of 0.648 vs. 0.626 and out-of-bag error rate of 0.352 vs. 0.374 for RSF). In addition to age, diabetes, smoking, and stent length, RSF also included coronary artery disease (acute or chronic) and hyperlipidemia as the most important variables. Conclusion Machine-learning prediction models such as RSF showed better performance than the Cox proportional hazards model for the prediction of MACCE during long-term follow-up after PCI.

Elevated plasma growth and differentiation factor 15 predicts incident anemia in older adults aged 60 years and older

The Journals of Gerontology Series A ◽

10.1093/gerona/glaa324 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Yuko Yamaguchi ◽

Marta Zampino ◽

Toshiko Tanaka ◽

Stefania Bandinelli ◽

Yusuke Osawa ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Older Adults ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Differentiation Factor ◽

Hazards Model ◽

Increased Risk ◽

The Relationship

Abstract Background Anemia is common in older adults and associated with greater morbidity and mortality. The causes of anemia in older adults have not been completely characterized. Although elevated circulating growth and differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) has been associated with anemia in older adults, it is not known whether elevated GDF-15 predicts the development of anemia. Methods We examined the relationship between plasma GDF-15 concentrations at baseline in 708 non-anemic adults, aged 60 years and older, with incident anemia during 15 years of follow-up among participants in the Invecchiare in Chianti (InCHIANTI) Study. Results During follow-up, 179 (25.3%) participants developed anemia. The proportion of participants who developed anemia from the lowest to highest quartile of plasma GDF-15 was 12.9%, 20.1%, 21.2%, and 45.8%, respectively. Adults in the highest quartile of plasma GDF-15 had an increased risk of developing anemia (Hazards Ratio 1.15, 95% Confidence Interval 1.09, 1.21, P<.0001) compared to those in the lower three quartiles in a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model adjusting for age, sex, serum iron, soluble transferrin receptor, ferritin, vitamin B12, congestive heart failure, diabetes mellitus, and cancer. Conclusions Circulating GDF-15 is an independent predictor for the development of anemia in older adults.

Dementia Adjudication Triggers Associated With Increased Mortality for Older Australians: Evidence From ASPREE

Innovation in Aging ◽

10.1093/geroni/igaa057.523 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽

pp. 161-161

Author(s):

Jane Banaszak-Holl ◽

Xiaoping Lin ◽

Jing Xie ◽

Stephanie Ward ◽

Henry Brodaty ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Proportional Hazards ◽

The Elderly ◽

Service Planning ◽

Cognitive Test ◽

Risk Of Death ◽

Hazards Model ◽

Using Data

Abstract Research Aims: This study seeks to understand whether those with dementia experience higher risk of death, using data from the ASPREE (ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly) clinical trial study. Methods: ASPREE was a primary intervention trial of low-dose aspirin among healthy older people. The Australian cohort included 16,703 dementia-free participants aged 70 years and over at enrolment. Participants were triggered for dementia adjudication if cognitive test results were poorer than expected, self-reporting dementia diagnosis or memory problems, or dementia medications were detected. Incidental dementia was adjudicated by an international adjudication committee using the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM-IV) criteria and results of a neuropsychological battery and functional measures with medical record substantiation. Statistical analyses used a cox proportional hazards model. Results: As previously reported, 1052 participants (5.5%) died during a median of 4.7 years of follow-up and 964 participants had a dementia trigger, of whom, 575 (60%) were adjucated as having dementia. Preliminary analyses has shown that the mortality rate was higher among participants with a dementia trigger, regardless of dementia adjudication outcome, than those without (15% vs 5%, Χ2 = 205, p <.001). Conclusion: This study will provide important analyses of differences in the hazard ratio for mortality and causes of death among people with and without cognitive impairment and has important implications on service planning.

Evaluation of Changes on World Stock Exchanges in Connection with the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic. Survival Analysis Methods

Risks ◽

10.3390/risks9070121 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (7) ◽

pp. 121

Author(s):

Beata Bieszk-Stolorz ◽

Krzysztof Dmytrów

Keyword(s):

Survival Analysis ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Stock Exchange ◽

Stock Exchanges ◽

Analysis Methods ◽

Hazards Model ◽

Kaplan Meier

The aim of our research was to compare the intensity of decline and then increase in the value of basic stock indices during the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic in 2020. The survival analysis methods used to assess the risk of decline and chance of rise of the indices were: Kaplan–Meier estimator, logit model, and the Cox proportional hazards model. We observed the highest intensity of decline in the European stock exchanges, followed by the American and Asian plus Australian ones (after the fourth and eighth week since the peak). The highest risk of decline was in America, then in Europe, followed by Asia and Australia. The lowest risk was in Africa. The intensity of increase was the highest in the fourth and eleventh week since the minimal value had been reached. The highest odds of increase were in the American stock exchanges, followed by the European and Asian (including Australia and Oceania), and the lowest in the African ones. The odds and intensity of increase in the stock exchange indices varied from continent to continent. The increase was faster than the initial decline.

Association between milk and yogurt intake and mortality: a community-based cohort study (Yamagata study)

BMC Nutrition ◽

10.1186/s40795-021-00435-1 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Akiko Nakanishi ◽

Erika Homma ◽

Tsukasa Osaki ◽

Ri Sho ◽

Masayoshi Souri ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Proportional Hazards ◽

Hazard Analysis ◽

Total Mortality ◽

Milk Intake ◽

Community Based ◽

Hazards Model ◽

Kaplan Meier

Abstract Background Dairy products are known as health-promoting foods. This study prospectively examined the association between milk and yogurt intake and mortality in a community-based population. Methods The study population comprised of 14,264 subjects aged 40–74 years who participated in an annual health checkup. The frequency of yogurt and milk intake was categorized as none (< 1/month), low (< 1/week), moderate (1–6/week), and high (> 1/day) intake. The association between yogurt and milk intake and total, cardiovascular, and cancer-related mortalities was determined using the Cox proportional hazards model. Results During the follow-up period, there were 265 total deaths, 40 cardiovascular deaths and 90 cancer-related deaths. Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that the total mortality in high/moderate/low yogurt intake and moderate/low milk intake groups was lower than that in none group (log-rank, P < 0.01). In the multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis adjusted for possible confounders, the hazard ratio (HR) for total mortality significantly decreased in high/moderate yogurt intake group (HR: 0.62, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.42–0.91 for high intake, HR: 0.70, 95%CI: 0.49–0.99 for moderate intake) and moderate milk intake group (HR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.46–0.97) compared with the none yogurt and milk intake groups. A similar association was observed for cancer-related mortality, but not for cardiovascular mortality. Conclusions Our study showed that yogurt and milk intake was independently associated with a decrease in total and cancer-related mortalities in the Japanese population.

Clinical impact of regression from sustained to paroxysmal atrial fibrillation: the Fushimi AF registry

European Heart Journal ◽

10.1093/ehjci/ehaa946.0678 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽

Author(s):

A Fujino ◽

H Ogawa ◽

S Ikeda ◽

K Doi ◽

Y Hamatani ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Cardiac Death ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Clinical Impact ◽

Cardiac Events ◽

Hazards Model ◽

Adverse Cardiac Events

Abstract Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) commonly progresses from paroxysmal type to sustained type in the natural course of the disease, and we previously demonstrated that the progression of AF was associated with increased risk of clinical adverse events. There are some patients, though less frequently, who regress from sustained to paroxysmal AF, but the clinical impact of the regression of AF remains unknown. Purpose We sought to investigate whether regression from sustained to paroxysmal AF is associated with better clinical outcomes. Methods Using the dataset of the Fushimi AF Registry, patients who were diagnosed as sustained (persistent or permanent) AF at baseline were studied. Conversion of sustained AF to paroxysmal AF during follow-up was defined as regression of AF. Major adverse cardiac events (MACE) were defined as the composite of cardiac death, stroke, and hospitalization for heart failure (HF). Event rates were compared between the patients with and without regression of AF. In patients with sustained AF at baseline, predictors of MACE were identified using Cox proportional hazards model. Results Among 2,253 patients who were diagnosed as sustained AF at baseline, regression of AF was observed in 9.0% (202/2,253, 2.0 per 100 patient-years) during a median follow-up of 4.0 years. Of these, 24.3% (49/202, 4.6 per 100 patient-years) of the patients finally recurred to sustained AF during follow-up. The proportion of asymptomatic patients was lower in patients with regression of AF than those without (with vs without regression; 49.0% vs 69.5%, p<0.01). The percentage of beta-blocker use at baseline was similar between the two groups (37.2% vs 33.8%, p=0.34). The prevalence of patients who underwent catheter ablation or electrical cardioversion during follow-up was higher in patients with regression of AF (catheter ablation: 15.8% vs 5.5%; p<0.01, cardioversion: 4.0% vs 1.4%; p<0.01, respectively). The rate of MACE was significantly lower in patients with regression of AF as compared with patients who maintained sustained AF (3.7 vs 6.2 per 100 patient-years, log-rank p<0.01). Figure shows the Kaplan-Meier curves for MACE, cardiac death, hospitalization for heart failure, and stroke. In patients with sustained AF at baseline, multivariable Cox proportional hazards model demonstrated that regression of AF was an independent predictor of lower MACE (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 0.50, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.28 to 0.88, p=0.02), stroke (HR: 0.51, 95% CI: 0.30 to 0.88, p=0.02), and hospitalization for HF (HR: 0.50, 95% CI: 0.29 to 0.85, p=0.01). Conclusion Regression from sustained to paroxysmal AF was associated with a lower incidence of adverse cardiac events. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

Inter-pregnancy interval and later pediatric cardiovascular health of the offspring – a population-based cohort study

Journal of Developmental Origins of Health and Disease ◽

10.1017/s2040174420001130 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 1-5

Author(s):

Majdi Imterat ◽

Tamar Wainstock ◽

Eyal Sheiner ◽

Gali Pariente

Keyword(s):

Proportional Hazards ◽

Population Based ◽

Cardiovascular Morbidity ◽

Hazards Model ◽

Kaplan Meier ◽

Inter Pregnancy Interval

Abstract Recent evidence suggests that a long inter-pregnancy interval (IPI: time interval between live birth and estimated time of conception of subsequent pregnancy) poses a risk for adverse short-term perinatal outcome. We aimed to study the effect of short (<6 months) and long (>60 months) IPI on long-term cardiovascular morbidity of the offspring. A population-based cohort study was performed in which all singleton live births in parturients with at least one previous birth were included. Hospitalizations of the offspring up to the age of 18 years involving cardiovascular diseases and according to IPI length were evaluated. Intermediate interval, between 6 and 60 months, was considered the reference. Kaplan–Meier survival curves were used to compare the cumulative morbidity incidence between the groups. Cox proportional hazards model was used to control for confounders. During the study period, 161,793 deliveries met the inclusion criteria. Of them, 14.1% (n = 22,851) occurred in parturient following a short IPI, 78.6% (n = 127,146) following an intermediate IPI, and 7.3% (n = 11,796) following a long IPI. Total hospitalizations of the offspring, involving cardiovascular morbidity, were comparable between the groups. The Kaplan–Meier survival curves demonstrated similar cumulative incidences of cardiovascular morbidity in all groups. In a Cox proportional hazards model, short and long IPI did not appear as independent risk factors for later pediatric cardiovascular morbidity of the offspring (adjusted HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.80–1.18; adjusted HR 1.01, 95% CI 0.83–1.37, for short and long IPI, respectively). In our population, extreme IPIs do not appear to impact long-term cardiovascular hospitalizations of offspring.