scholarly journals What If the Influenza Vaccine Did Not Offer Such Variable Protection?

2020 ◽  
Vol 222 (7) ◽  
pp. 1138-1144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah M Bartsch ◽  
Elizabeth A Mitgang ◽  
Gail Geller ◽  
Sarah N Cox ◽  
Kelly J O’Shea ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Influenza Vaccine ◽  
Compartment Model ◽  
Medical Costs ◽  
The United States ◽  
Individual Factors ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Direct Medical Costs ◽  
Productivity Losses ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background The protection that an influenza vaccine offers can vary significantly from person to person due to differences in immune systems, body types, and other factors. The question, then, is what is the value of efforts to reduce this variability such as making vaccines more personalized and tailored to individuals. Methods We developed a compartment model of the United States to simulate different influenza seasons and the impact of reducing the variability in responses to the influenza vaccine across the population. Results Going from a vaccine that varied in efficacy (0–30%) to one that had a uniform 30% efficacy for everyone averted 16.0–31.2 million cases, $1.9–$3.6 billion in direct medical costs, and $16.1–$42.7 billion in productivity losses. Going from 0–50% in efficacy to just 50% for everyone averted 27.7–38.6 million cases, $3.3–$4.6 billion in direct medical costs, and $28.8–$57.4 billion in productivity losses. Going from 0–70% to 70% averted 33.6–54.1 million cases, $4.0–$6.5 billion in direct medical costs, and $44.8–$64.7 billion in productivity losses. Conclusions This study quantifies for policy makers, funders, and vaccine developers and manufacturers the potential impact of efforts to reduce variability in the protection that influenza vaccines offer (eg, developing vaccines that are more personalized to different individual factors).

scholarly journals The Clinical and Economic Burden of Norovirus Gastroenteritis in the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 222 (11) ◽  
pp. 1910-1919 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah M Bartsch ◽  
Kelly J O’Shea ◽  
Bruce Y Lee
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Burden ◽  
Computational Simulation ◽  
Medical Costs ◽  
The United States ◽  
School Work ◽  
Direct Medical Costs ◽  
Productivity Losses ◽  
Incidence Estimate ◽  
Norovirus Gastroenteritis

Abstract Background Although norovirus outbreaks periodically make headlines, it is unclear how much attention norovirus may receive otherwise. A better understanding of the burden could help determine how to prioritize norovirus prevention and control. Methods We developed a computational simulation model to quantify the clinical and economic burden of norovirus in the United States. Results A symptomatic case generated $48 in direct medical costs, $416 in productivity losses ($464 total). The median yearly cost of outbreaks was $7.6 million (range across years, $7.5–$8.2 million) in direct medical costs, and $165.3 million ($161.1–$176.4 million) in productivity losses ($173.5 million total). Sporadic illnesses in the community (incidence, 10–150/1000 population) resulted in 14 118–211 705 hospitalizations, 8.2–122.9 million missed school/work days, $0.2–$2.3 billion in direct medical costs, and $1.4–$20.7 billion in productivity losses ($1.5–$23.1 billion total). The total cost was $10.6 billion based on the current incidence estimate (68.9/1000). Conclusion Our study quantified norovirus’ burden. Of the total burden, sporadic cases constituted >90% (thus, annual burden may vary depending on incidence) and productivity losses represented 89%. More than half the economic burden is in adults ≥45, more than half occurs in winter months, and >90% of outbreak costs are due to person-to-person transmission, offering insights into where and when prevention/control efforts may yield returns.

scholarly journals Impact of temperature and relative humidity on the transmission of COVID-19: a modelling study in China and the United States

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. e043863
Author(s):  
Jingyuan Wang ◽  
Ke Tang ◽  
Kai Feng ◽  
Xin Lin ◽  
Weifeng Lv ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
The United States ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Higher Temperature ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact

ObjectivesWe aim to assess the impact of temperature and relative humidity on the transmission of COVID-19 across communities after accounting for community-level factors such as demographics, socioeconomic status and human mobility status.DesignA retrospective cross-sectional regression analysis via the Fama-MacBeth procedure is adopted.SettingWe use the data for COVID-19 daily symptom-onset cases for 100 Chinese cities and COVID-19 daily confirmed cases for 1005 US counties.ParticipantsA total of 69 498 cases in China and 740 843 cases in the USA are used for calculating the effective reproductive numbers.Primary outcome measuresRegression analysis of the impact of temperature and relative humidity on the effective reproductive number (R value).ResultsStatistically significant negative correlations are found between temperature/relative humidity and the effective reproductive number (R value) in both China and the USA.ConclusionsHigher temperature and higher relative humidity potentially suppress the transmission of COVID-19. Specifically, an increase in temperature by 1°C is associated with a reduction in the R value of COVID-19 by 0.026 (95% CI (−0.0395 to −0.0125)) in China and by 0.020 (95% CI (−0.0311 to −0.0096)) in the USA; an increase in relative humidity by 1% is associated with a reduction in the R value by 0.0076 (95% CI (−0.0108 to −0.0045)) in China and by 0.0080 (95% CI (−0.0150 to −0.0010)) in the USA. Therefore, the potential impact of temperature/relative humidity on the effective reproductive number alone is not strong enough to stop the pandemic.

scholarly journals 1414. #Vaccine Twitter Influencers: is it Just About Reach and Followers?

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S714-S715
Author(s):  
Jean-Etienne Poirrier ◽  
Theodore Caputi ◽  
John Ayers ◽  
Mark Dredze ◽  
Sara Poston ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Social Media ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Small Proportion ◽  
The United States ◽  
Research Support ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Media Messages ◽  
Social Media Platforms ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background A small number of powerful users (“influencers”) dominates conversations on social media platforms: less than 1% of Twitter accounts have at least 3,000 followers and even fewer have hundreds of thousands or millions of followers. Beyond simple metrics (number of tweets, retweets...) little is known about these “influencers”, particularly in relation to their role in shaping online narratives about vaccines. Our goal was to describe influential Twitter accounts that are driving conversations about vaccines and present new metrics of influence. Methods Using publicly-available data from Twitter, we selected posts from 1-Jan-2016 to 31-Dec-2018 and extracted the top 5% of accounts tweeting about vaccines with the most followers. Using automated classifiers, we determined the location of these accounts, and grouped them into those that primarily tweet pro- versus anti-vaccine content. We further characterized the demographics of these influencer accounts. Results From 25,381 vaccine-related tweets available in our sample representing 10,607 users, 530 accounts represented the top 5% by number of followers. These accounts had on average 1,608,637 followers (standard deviation=5,063,421) and 340,390 median followers. Among the accounts for which sentiment was successfully estimated by the classifier, 10.4% (n=55) posted anti-vaccine content and 33.6% (n=178) posted pro-vaccine content. Of the 55 anti-vaccine accounts, 50% (n=18) of the accounts for which location was successfully determined were from the United States. Of the 178 pro-vaccine accounts, 42.5% (n=54) were from the United States. Conclusion This study showed that only a small proportion of Twitter accounts (A) post about vaccines and (B) have a high follower count and post anti-vaccine content. Further analysis of these users may help researchers and policy makers better understand how to amplify the impact of pro-vaccine social media messages. Disclosures Jean-Etienne Poirrier, PhD, MBA, The GSK group of companies (Employee, Shareholder) Theodore Caputi, PhD, Good Analytics Inc. (Consultant) John Ayers, PhD, GSK (Grant/Research Support) Mark Dredze, PhD, Bloomberg LP (Consultant)Good Analytics (Consultant) Sara Poston, PharmD, The GlaxoSmithKline group of companies (Employee, Shareholder) Cosmina Hogea, PhD, GlaxoSmithKline (Employee, Shareholder)

scholarly journals The Impact of Audit Committees on US Nonprofit Organizations’ Governance

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 30
Author(s):  
Husam Abu-Khadra
Keyword(s):  
Nonprofit Organizations ◽  
Audit Committee ◽  
Nonprofit Sector ◽  
The United States ◽  
Preliminary Evidence ◽  
Securities And Exchange Commission ◽  
Audit Committees ◽  
Public Companies ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Impact

All public companies in the United States are required by the securities and exchange commission (SEC) to have an audit committee. Such enforcement can be attributed to high-profile corporate failures and their connections to nonexistence, ineffective or weak audit committees and governance. Despite the efforts to establish a similar argument and enforcement structure for the nonprofit sector, the internal revenue service (IRS) has not pursued legislation, and no empirical evidence has been established to support any public policy changes. This paper contributes to the literature in this field by being the first study to examine 124,980 nonprofit organizations during the period of 2010 to 2015 to test the association between governance in nonprofit organizations and audit committees. We included fifteen measures from these organizations’ IRS Form 990 filings to formulate the study variables. We found significant evidence that the existence of audit committees improves the governance scores of nonprofit organizations. Our study findings have significant implications for nonprofit executives, policy makers and any other interested parties; these findings act as preliminary evidence to support more proactive policies regarding mandatory audit committees for nonprofit organizations. 

scholarly journals Impact of Gulfstream-IV Dropsondes on Tropical Cyclone Prediction in a Regional OSSE System

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (8) ◽  
pp. 2961-2977 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelly Ryan ◽  
Lisa Bucci ◽  
Javier Delgado ◽  
Robert Atlas ◽  
Shirley Murillo
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
The United States ◽  
Track Forecast ◽  
Deterministic Models ◽  
Research Division ◽  
Sensitivity Studies ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Aircraft reconnaissance missions remain the primary means of collecting direct measurements of marine atmospheric conditions affecting tropical cyclone formation and evolution. The National Hurricane Center tasks the NOAA G-IV aircraft to sample environmental conditions that may impact the development of a tropical cyclone threatening to make landfall in the United States or its territories. These aircraft data are assimilated into deterministic models and used to produce real-time analyses and forecasts for a given tropical cyclone. Existing targeting techniques aim to optimize the use of reconnaissance observations and partially rely on regions of highest uncertainty in the Global Ensemble Forecast System. Evaluating the potential impact of various trade-offs in the targeting process is valuable for determining the ideal aircraft flight track for a prospective mission. AOML’s Hurricane Research Division has developed a system for performing regional observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) to assess the potential impact of proposed observing systems on hurricane track and intensity forecasting. This study focuses on improving existing targeting methods by investigating the impact of proposed aircraft observing system designs through various sensitivity studies. G-IV dropsonde retrievals were simulated from a regional nature run, covering the life cycle of a rapidly intensifying Atlantic hurricane. Results from sensitivity studies provide insight into improvements for real-time operational synoptic surveillance targeting for hurricanes and tropical storms, where dropsondes released closer to the vortex–environment interface provide the largest impact on the track forecast. All dropsonde configurations provide a positive 2-day impact on intensity forecasts by improving the environmental conditions known to impact tropical cyclone intensity.

Branding Cultural Products in International Markets: A Study of Hollywood Movies in China

2020 ◽  
Vol 84 (3) ◽  
pp. 86-105
Author(s):  
Weihe Gao ◽  
Li Ji ◽  
Yong Liu ◽  
Qi Sun
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
International Markets ◽  
Brand Name ◽  
Chinese Market ◽  
Cultural Products ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Box Office ◽  
Foreign Countries ◽  
Hollywood Movies ◽  
The Impact

Cultural products are a major component of the world economy and are responsible for a growing share of U.S. exports. The authors examine brand name strategies when cultural products are marketed in foreign countries. Incorporating the unique characteristics of these products, the authors develop a theoretical framework that integrates similarity, which focuses on how the translated brand name relates to the original brand name, and informativeness, which focuses on how the translated brand name reveals product content, to study the impact of brand name translations. The authors analyze Hollywood movies shown in China from 2011 to 2018. The results show that higher similarity leads to higher Chinese box office revenue, and this effect is stronger for movies that perform better in the home market (i.e., the United States). When the translated title is more informative about the movie, the Chinese box office revenue increases. The informativeness effect is stronger for Hollywood movies with greater cultural gap in the Chinese market. Moreover, both similarity and informativeness effects are strongest when the movie is released and reduce over time. This research provides valuable guidance to companies, managers, and policy makers in cultural product industries as well as those in international marketing.

scholarly journals Closing Time! Examining the Impact of Gender and Executive Branch Policy Makers on the Timing of Stay-at-Home Orders

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 935-942 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laine P. Shay
Keyword(s):  
Event History Analysis ◽  
Health Agency ◽  
The United States ◽  
Executive Branch ◽  
Female Leadership ◽  
Closing Time ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
History Analysis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

AbstractThe 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic has significantly altered lives across the globe. In the United States, several states attempted to manage the pandemic by issuing stay-at-home orders. In this research note, I examine whether the gender of state policy makers in the executive branch might impact a state's adoption of a stay-at-home order. Using event history analysis, I find that the governor's gender has no impact on the likelihood of a state adopting a stay-at-home order. However, I find that gender plays a significant role for agency heads. Specifically, my analysis shows that states with a female-headed health agency tend to adopt stay-at-home orders earlier than states with a male administrator. These findings shed light on how female leadership in the executive branch may impact public policy regarding COVID-19.

scholarly journals “1D+4DVAR” Assimilation of NCEP Stage-IV Radar and Gauge Hourly Precipitation Data at ECMWF

2007 ◽  
Vol 135 (7) ◽  
pp. 2506-2524 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Lopez ◽  
Peter Bauer
Keyword(s):  
Stage Iv ◽  
The United States ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Precipitation Data ◽  
Surface Precipitation ◽  
Weather Radars ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Microwave Imager ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The one- plus four-dimensional variational data assimilation (“1D+4DVAR”) method currently run in operations at ECMWF with rain-affected radiances from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager is used to study the potential impact of assimilating NCEP stage-IV analyses of hourly accumulated surface precipitation over the U.S. mainland. These data are a combination of rain gauge measurements and observations from the high-resolution Doppler Next-Generation Weather Radars. Several 1D+4DVAR experiments have been run over a month in spring 2005. First, the quality of the precipitation forecasts in the control experiment is assessed. Then, it is shown that the impact of the assimilation of the additional rain observations on global scores of dynamical fields and temperature is rather neutral, while precipitation scores are improved for forecast ranges up to 12 h. Additional 1D+4DVAR experiments in which all moisture-affected observations are removed over the United States demonstrate that the NCEP stage-IV precipitation data on their own can clearly be beneficial to the analyses and subsequent forecasts of the moisture field. This result suggests that the potential impact of precipitation observations is overshadowed by the influence of other high-quality humidity observations, in particular, radiosondes. It also confirms that the assimilation of precipitation observations has the ability to improve the quality of moisture analyses and forecasts in data-sparse regions. Finally, the limitations inherent in the current assimilation of precipitation data, their implications for the future, and possible ways of improvement are discussed.

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