scholarly journals Macroeconomic Fluctuations with HANK&SAM: an Analytical Approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Morten O Ravn ◽  
Vincent Sterk
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Macroeconomic Fluctuations ◽  
Precautionary Savings ◽  
Downward Pressure ◽  
Considerable Impact ◽  
Earnings Risk ◽  
Model Features ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Recently developed HANK models, which combine Heterogeneous Agents and New Keynesian frictions, have had a considerable impact on macroeconomics. However, due to the complexity of such models, the literature has focused on numerically solved models and therefore little is known about their general properties. This paper presents a tractable HANK model that integrates Search and Matching (SAM) frictions in the labor market. The model features an endogenous idiosyncratic earnings risk, which may be procyclical or countercyclical. When this risk is countercyclical, which we argue is the empirically plausible case, there is a downward pressure on real interest rates in recessions due to a precautionary savings motive. We show that in this setting (a) the economy may get stuck in a high-unemployment steady state, (b) the Taylor principle is insufficient to eliminate the local indeterminacy of the intended steady state, and (c) nominal rigidities and inincomplete markets are complementary in terms of amplifying the impact of shocks on the macroeconomy.

The Effect of Quantitative Easing on Investment in the US and UK: An SVAR Approach

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Russell
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Structural Vector Autoregression ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Downward Pressure ◽  
The Us ◽  
Historical Relationship ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England implemented asset purchase programs to provide further liquidity to faltering markets, and to continue to place downward pressure on market interest rates. Later called Quantitative Easing, the higher asset prices and lower market yields induced by the purchases were expected to translate into lower market borrowing costs and increased investment. This project focused on estimating the effect of Quantitative Easing on real investment in the US and UK up to 2010. First, the historical relationship between bond yields and investment was estimated using a time series econometric model called a structural vector autoregression. Next, using the historical relationship between bond yields and investment, the impact of the asset purchases on investment was calculated using the bond yield changes induced by  Quantitative Easing announcements. Deviations in bond yields on Quantitative Easing announcement dates suggested an impact on investment of 5.93% in the US, and an impact of 3.37% in the UK. Moreover, both the US and UK econometric results are statistically significant. Taking into account the econometric assumptions required to estimate the impact of Quantitative Easing on investment, the results in this project should be viewed with caution. However, the results will be useful in framing future thought on Quantitative Easing as a tool to provide macroeconomic stability 

scholarly journals THE ROLE OF INTEREST RATES AND PROVINCIAL MONETARY AGGREGATE IN MAINTAINING INFLATION IN INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 267-286
Author(s):  
Chandra Utama ◽  
Miryam B.L. Wijaya ◽  
Charvin Lim
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Method Of Moments ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Monetary Aggregate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Inflation is a regional phenomenon hence the use of provincial data might be more appropriateon explaining the relationship between monetary policy and inflation. This paper analyzes the impact of changes in provincial money supply, the policy rate, and the interbank rate on regional inflation, within the framework of Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve (HNKPC). This paper employs Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) on panel data of 32 provinces from 2005-III to 2014-IV. The estimation result shows that provincial monetary aggregate influence inflation significantly only in Sumatera. Furthermore, the policy fate affects the inflation in Sumatera and Kalimantan-Sulawesi. Using the interbank money rate, the result shows this rate also affect the inflation in most of the region except Kalimantan-Sulawesi. These findings show the price-based policy is more significant on affecting the provincial inflation compared to the provincial money supply.

scholarly journals The Costs of Macroprudential Deleveraging in a Liquidity Trap

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (89) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiaqian Chen ◽  
Daria Finocchiaro ◽  
Jesper Lindé ◽  
Karl Walentin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Transaction Costs ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Liquidity Trap ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates ◽  
Model Features

We examine the effects of various borrower-based macroprudential tools in a New Keynesian environment where both real and nominal interest rates are low. Our model features long-term debt, housing transaction costs and a zero-lower bound constraint on policy rates. We find that the long-term costs, in terms of forgone consumption, of all the macroprudential tools we consider are moderate. Even so, the short-term costs differ dramatically between alternative tools. Specifically, a loan-to-value tightening is more than twice as contractionary compared to loan-to-income tightening when debt is high and monetary policy cannot accommodate.

NKV: A New Keynesian Model with Vulnerability

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 ◽  
pp. 470-476
Author(s):  
Tobias Adrian ◽  
Fernando Duarte ◽  
Nellie Liang ◽  
Pawel Zabczyk
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
New Keynesian Model ◽  
Risk Return ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Price Of Risk ◽  
The Impact

We present a New Keynesian model with endogenous risk. The conditional output gap volatility depends on the price of risk, giving rise to a vulnerability channel of monetary policy. Lower interest rates not only shift consumption intertemporally but also shift conditional output risk. The model fits estimates of the conditional output gap distribution 1 to 12 quarters ahead and suggests an intertemporal risk return trade-off for policymakers. Via the impact on risk taking, easy monetary policy lowers short-term downside risks to growth but increases medium-term risks. The framework can be used to jointly consider macroprudential and monetary policy.

DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN FISKAL TERHADAP KINERJA SEKTOR PERTANIAN DI SULAWESI TENGGARA

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
La Ode Jabuddin ◽  
Ayub M Padangaran ◽  
Azhar Bafadal Bafadal
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Simultaneous Equations ◽  
Poor People ◽  
Land Area ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Historical Simulation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Direct Expenditure

This study aims to: (1) Knowing the dynamics of fiscal policy and the performance of the agricultural sector, (2) Analyze the factors that influence fiscal policy and the performance                   of the agricultural sector, and (3) Analyzing the impact of fiscal policy on the performance of the agricultural sector. The data used in this study were pooled 2005-2013 data in the aggregate. Econometric model the impact of fiscal policy on the performance of the agricultural sector is built in the form of simultaneous equations, consisting of 7 equations with 25 total variables in the model, 7 endogenous variables, 12 exogenous variables, and 6 variables lag. The model is estimated by 2SLS method SYSLIN procedures and historical simulation with SIMNLIN procedure.The results showed that: (1) The development of fiscal policy in Southeast Sulawesi from year to year tends to increase, (2) The performance of the agricultural sector from the aspect of GDP has decreased, from the aspect of labor is still consistent, in terms of investment to grow positively, and assign roles which means to decrease the number of poor people, (3) factors affecting fiscal policy is local revenues, equalization funds, other revenues, as well as the lag fiscal policy, (4) the factors that affect the performance of the agricultural sector from the aspect GDP is labor, direct expenditure and GDP lag; from the aspect of labor is the total labor force, investment, land area, direct expenditure, as well as the lag of labor; from the aspect of investment is influenced by GDP per capita, land area, interest rates and investment lag; as well as from the aspect of poor people, are affected by population, investments, direct expenditure and poverty lag, (5). Fiscal policy impact on the agricultural sector GDP increase, a decrease in the number of poor, declining agricultural laborers, and a decrease in the amount of investment in the agricultural sector.Keywords: Fiscal policy, the performance of the agricultural sector, the simultaneous equations

FAKTOR DETERMINAN PENYALURAN KREDIT BANK PERSERO

2018 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-71
Author(s):  
Wigiyanti Masodah
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Main Activity ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Given ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Models

Offering credit is the main activity of a Bank. There are some considerations when a bank offers credit, that includes Interest Rates, Inflation, and NPL. This study aims to find out the impact of Variable Interest Rates, Inflation variables and NPL variables on credit disbursed. The object in this study is state-owned banks. The method of analysis in this study uses multiple linear regression models. The results of the study have shown that Interest Rates and NPL gave some negative impacts on the given credit. Meanwhile, Inflation variable does not have a significant effect on credit given. Keywords: Interest Rate, Inflation, NPL, offered Credit.

scholarly journals Advanced Constitutive Modeling of the Thixotropic Elasto-Visco-Plastic Behavior of Blood: Steady-State Blood Flow in Microtubes

Materials ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 367
Author(s):  
Konstantinos Giannokostas ◽  
Yannis Dimakopoulos ◽  
Andreas Anayiotos ◽  
John Tsamopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Blood Flow ◽  
Steady State ◽  
Constitutive Model ◽  
Blood Plasma ◽  
Constitutive Modeling ◽  
Flow Direction ◽  
Momentum Balance ◽  
Plastic Behavior ◽  
Flow Investigation ◽  
The Impact

The present work focuses on the in-silico investigation of the steady-state blood flow in straight microtubes, incorporating advanced constitutive modeling for human blood and blood plasma. The blood constitutive model accounts for the interplay between thixotropy and elasto-visco-plasticity via a scalar variable that describes the level of the local blood structure at any instance. The constitutive model is enhanced by the non-Newtonian modeling of the plasma phase, which features bulk viscoelasticity. Incorporating microcirculation phenomena such as the cell-free layer (CFL) formation or the Fåhraeus and the Fåhraeus-Lindqvist effects is an indispensable part of the blood flow investigation. The coupling between them and the momentum balance is achieved through correlations based on experimental observations. Notably, we propose a new simplified form for the dependence of the apparent viscosity on the hematocrit that predicts the CFL thickness correctly. Our investigation focuses on the impact of the microtube diameter and the pressure-gradient on velocity profiles, normal and shear viscoelastic stresses, and thixotropic properties. We demonstrate the microstructural configuration of blood in steady-state conditions, revealing that blood is highly aggregated in narrow tubes, promoting a flat velocity profile. Additionally, the proper accounting of the CFL thickness shows that for narrow microtubes, the reduction of discharged hematocrit is significant, which in some cases is up to 70%. At high pressure-gradients, the plasmatic proteins in both regions are extended in the flow direction, developing large axial normal stresses, which are more significant in the core region. We also provide normal stress predictions at both the blood/plasma interface (INS) and the tube wall (WNS), which are difficult to measure experimentally. Both decrease with the tube radius; however, they exhibit significant differences in magnitude and type of variation. INS varies linearly from 4.5 to 2 Pa, while WNS exhibits an exponential decrease taking values from 50 mPa to zero.

scholarly journals Mobile Money Use: The Impact of Macroeconomic Policy and Regulation

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Lorna Katusiime
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Mobile Money ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the effects of macroeconomic policy and regulatory environment on mobile money usage. Specifically, we develop an autoregressive distributed lag model to investigate the effect of key macroeconomic variables and mobile money tax on mobile money usage in Uganda. Using monthly data spanning the period March 2009 to September 2020, we find that in the short run, mobile money usage is positively affected by inflation while financial innovation, exchange rate, interest rates and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage in Uganda. In the long run, mobile money usage is positively affected by economic activity, inflation and the COVID-19 pandemic crisis while mobile money customer balances, interest rate, exchange rate, financial innovation and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage.

Overburdened Gauls: the case of Florus and Sacrovir’s revolt of 21 CE

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jared Kreiner
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Cumulative Effect ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Local Economies ◽  
Scale Resistance ◽  
Military Campaigns ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In 21 CE, a series of localized movements broke out in Gallia Comata due to heavy debts among provincials according to Tacitus. Modern scholars have long argued that the indebtedness occurred because of rising interest rates, resulting from dwindling currency in circulation after decades of free-spending following Augustus’ victory at Actium, and that Gallic communities were subjected to an additional tribute to support the wars of Germanicus (14–16 CE), which continued unabated after the wars and pushed Gauls beyond their means. These claims are misguided, however, in that there is no certain evidence of a special tax to support Germanicus’ wars and that the argument for a dwindling circulation of currency in Gaul falters under closer inspection. Rather, the pressing statal and military needs imposed on communities in Gallia Comata after 9 CE on top of routine exactions could significantly increase burden levels levied on provincial populations, thus contributing to rising debts. Through examining how Roman logistics and conscription operated in this period, it is possible to trace how populations were impacted by such demands and which communities were most heavily affected by them, too. Individually, the impact of each factor is unlikely to have been burdensome enough to have caused large-scale resistance, it is only the cumulative effect that these explanations had on top of routine Roman extraction schemes that could create the conditions for this revolt. This paper argues that in extraordinary circumstances, such as the period after the Varian Disaster for Gallia Comata, the costs of supporting military campaigns places real short-term strains on local economies, which creates the conditions for revolt. The benefit of this approach is that it may explain other episodes of anti-fiscal resistance that broke out during or within a decade of wars in neighboring regions.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Pandemic, CLABSI, and CAUTI: The Urgent Need to Refocus on Hardwiring Prevention Efforts

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-22
Author(s):  
Mohamad G. Fakih ◽  
Angelo Bufalino ◽  
Lisa Sturm ◽  
Ren-Huai Huang ◽  
Allison Ottenbacher ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Urinary Catheter ◽  
Bloodstream Infections ◽  
Central Line ◽  
Coagulase Negative Staphylococcus ◽  
Safe Environment ◽  
Candida Sp ◽  
Optimal Line ◽  
Considerable Impact ◽  
Tract Infections ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a considerable impact on US hospitalizations, affecting processes and patient population. Methods: We evaluated the impact of COVID-19 pandemic in 78 US hospitals on central line associated bloodstream infections (CLABSI) and catheter associated urinary tract infections (CAUTI) events 12 months pre-COVID-19 and 6 months during COVID-19 pandemic. Results: There were 795,022 central line-days and 817,267 urinary catheter-days over the two study periods. Compared to pre-COVID-19 period, CLABSI rates increased during the pandemic period from 0.56 to 0.85 (51.0%) per 1,000 line-days (p<0.001) and from 1.00 to 1.64 (62.9%) per 10,000 patient-days (p<0.001). Hospitals with monthly COVID-19 patients representing >10% of admissions had a NHSN device standardized infection ratio for CLABSI that was 2.38 times higher compared to those with <5% prevalence during the pandemic period (p=0.004). Coagulase-negative staphylococcus CLABSI increased by 130% from 0.07 to 0.17 events per 1,000 line-days (p<0.001), and Candida sp. by 56.9% from 0.14 to 0.21 per 1,000 line-days (p=0.01). In contrast, no significant changes were identified for CAUTI (0.86 vs. 0.77 per 1,000 catheter-days; p=0.19). Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with substantial increases in CLABSI but not CAUTI events. Our findings underscore the importance of hardwiring processes for optimal line care, and regular feedback on performance to maintain a safe environment.

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