Natural Hazards and Risk

Geography ◽  
2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
John P. Tiefenbacher

Natural hazards are processes that occur in nature that threaten the safety, health, and economic interests of human beings. People have often regarded the natural processes as the causes of their losses or the sources of imminent threat. The most dramatic of these events are either geomorphologic processes (earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, and others) or meteorological processes (hurricanes, tornados, river floods, and others), and these attract widespread attention, but occasionally some derive from complex processes (wildfires, coastal inundation, and other climate change exacerbated processes) or are merely more subtle because they develop slowly or incur slowly appearing changes (such as in droughts, freeze events, infestations [by animals or plants], or disease outbreaks). The likelihood that a particular type of event will occur in a specific location is called risk, and this probability will influence the potential for human exposure in occupied landscapes. The populating of “risky” landscapes creates the hazard, which exists only when human interests are threatened. In this way, “hazard” reflects a measurement of the potential for loss. If humans and their valuables are not present (i.e., potentially exposed to a hazardous event), there is no hazard (statistically speaking). Geographers’ interest in hazard, beyond understanding geophysical processes, stems from the recognition of the importance of human processes (economic, political, sociological, psychological, and others) in the creation and response to hazardous circumstances. The adoption of the “human ecology” perspective (originating in the discipline of sociology) in the 1920s by Harlan Barrows and others established a tradition of analysis of the interaction of physical and human processes. Gilbert White’s scholarship, beginning in the 1940s, opened the policy realm to rational management of human processes and our relationships to the geographies of natural processes. Since then, the geographic perspective of hazards has diversified in a number of ways. Not only has the literature expanded in terms of the sources of hazard but also in terms of critical evaluation of the deeper causes behind the decisions that increase hazard. The past forty years of scholarship have employed increasingly sophisticated social, political, economic, and philosophical models to understand why people are driven to live in places and in ways that increase the likelihood that they will be impacted by detrimental conditions. In geography, in particular, geographic information science and geospatial technologies have enhanced efforts to understand and reduce hazard.

Author(s):  
José Vicente Amórtegui Gil

Hydrocarbon pipelines are exposed to hazards from natural processes, which may affect their integrity and trigger processes that have consequences on the environment. Among the natural hazards are the effects of the earthquakes, the neotectonic activity, the volcanism, the weathering of soils and rocks, the landslides, the flows or avalanches of mud or debris, the processes related to sediment transport such as the erosion, the scour by streams, the floods and the sloughing due to rains. Those processes are sometimes related to each other, e.g. the earthquakes can produce slides, or movement of geological faults, or soil liquefaction; the rain can trigger landslides and can cause avalanches and mudslides or debris flow; the volcanic eruptions can originate landslides and avalanches, or pyroclastic flows. Human activities can also induce or accelerate “natural” processes that affect the integrity of the pipelines. The strength and stiffness of the pipelines allow them to tolerate the effects of natural hazards for some period of time. The amount of time depends on the strength and deformability, the stress state, the age, the conditions of installation and operation of the pipelines and their geometric arrangement with regard to the hazardous processes. In the programs for pipeline integrity management, the risk is defined as a function that relates the probability of the pipeline rupture and the consequences of the failure. However, some people define risk as the summation of the indicators of probability and consequences, such as a RAM matrix. Others define the risk as the product of the probability of failure times the cost of the consequences, while the overall function used to evaluate the rupture probability of a pipeline facing hazards considered in the ASME b31.8 S standard includes all the elements involved in the failure process. In that standard, for the specific analysis of natural hazards, it is proposed that the function is separated in the two following principal elements: the probability of occurrence of the threatening process (hazard) and the pipeline’s capacity to tolerate it. In this paper a general function is proposed, which is the product of the probability of occurrence of the threatening process, the vulnerability of the pipeline (expressed as the fraction of the potential damage the pipe can undergo), and the consequences of the pipeline failure (represented in the summation of the costs of the spilled product, its collection, the pipeline repair and the damages made by the rupture).


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giuliano Di Baldassarre

<p>Plinius (23-79 AD) is known worldwide as the author of the encyclopedic Naturalis Historia. He died in Stabiae while trying to rescue his family from the eruption of Mount Vesuvius, one of the deadliest volcanic eruptions in European history that also destroyed the cities of Herculaneum and Pompeii. At that time, natural hazards were mostly seen as “acts of God(s)”. Instead, in today’s Anthropocene, extreme events coexist with two dichotomic (and rather simplistic) views: “disasters are natural” vs. “humans are to blame since they live in risky areas”. In this lecture, I present scientific and societal challenges associated with the increasing impact (from Plinius’ time to the Anthropocene) of humans on the spatial and temporal distribution of natural hazards. I also problematize and challenge myths, preconceptions and conventional wisdoms related with uncertainty, behavioral heuristics, expert vs. local knowledge, social power and inequalities. To this end, I review recent studies in various socioeconomic contexts, and across multiple hazards, with a focus on five events that have significantly influenced my research work: the 1963 Vajont Dam landslide, the 2004 flooding in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake, the water crisis (Day Zero) during the 2015-2017 drought in Cape Town and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.</p>


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruce D. Malamud ◽  
Emmah Mwangi ◽  
Joel Gill ◽  
Ekbal Hussain ◽  
Faith Taylor ◽  
...  

<p>Global policy frameworks, such as the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, increasingly advocate for multi-hazard approaches across different spatial scales. However, management approaches on the ground are still informed by siloed approaches based on one single natural hazard (e.g. flood, earthquake, snowstorm). However, locations are rarely subjected to a single natural hazard but rather prone to more than one. These different hazards and their interactions (e.g. one natural hazard triggering or increasing the probability of one or more natural hazards), together with exposure and vulnerability, shape the disaster landscape of a given region and associated disaster impact.  Here, as part of the UK GCRF funded research grant “Tomorrow’s Cities” we first map out the single natural hazardscape for Nairobi using evidence collected through peer-reviewed literature, grey literature, social media and newspapers. We find the following hazard groups and hazard types present in Nairobi: (i) geophysical (earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides), (ii) hydrological (floods and droughts), (iii) shallow earth processes (regional subsidence, ground collapse, soil subsidence, ground heave), (iv) atmospheric hazards (storm, hail, lightning, extreme heat, extreme cold), (v) biophysical (urban fires), and vi) space hazards (geomatic storms, and impact events). The breadth of single natural hazards that can potentially impact Nairobi is much larger than normally considered by individual hazard managers that work in Nairobi. We then use a global hazard matrix to identify possible hazard interactions, focusing on the following interaction mechanisms: (i) hazard triggering secondary hazard, (ii) hazards amplifying the possibility of the secondary hazard occurring.  We identify 67 possible interactions, as well as some of the interaction cascade typologies that are typical for Nairobi (e.g. a storm triggers and increases the probability of a flood which in turn increases the probability of a flood). Our results indicate a breadth of natural hazards and their interactions in Nairobi, and emphasise a need for a multi-hazard approach to disaster risk reduction.</p>


The Fly ◽  
2018 ◽  
pp. 87-96
Author(s):  
Emma Westwood

This chapter describes the scenes of Act Two of David Cronenberg's The Fly (1986). In Act Two, Seth Brundle makes the transition from amiable and reclusive scientist to predatory and misogynistic Brundlefly — a seamless character transition that creeps up on the audience through Cronenberg's screenplay and direction, and Jeff Goldblum's subtle yet defined performance. As the Brundlefly persona comes to the fore, the audience still sympathises with the overtly animalistic, egregious person he has become. They know this is not the real Seth; it is the corruption of Seth at a cellular level. Cronenberg's patented brand of body horror is coming into its own right here with Seth finally admitting to himself that something is wrong. He questions whether he is dying, and if this is what dying is like, which directly references Cronenberg's own explanation of the film: that it is an allegory for our mortality as human beings and the natural processes that lead to old age and death. It is by way of the computer that he discovers his DNA has fused with a fly — the vital ‘reveal’ — in a cinematic moment common to many great science-fiction films where pivotal information of emotional resonance is not communicated between human beings but between human and machine.


2030 ◽  
2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rutger van Santen ◽  
Djan Khoe ◽  
Bram Vermeer

A hurricane striking the Chinese coast is ten times as lethal as one hitting the United States. The number of U.S. victims is limited because of better precautions, warning systems, and evacuation methods. More effective observation and communication can save lives. A century ago, hurricanes killed around 7,000 Americans every year, whereas nowadays there are only very few hurricanes of the lethality of Katrina. That progress has yet to reach every corner of Earth, says Guus Berkhout regretfully. This Dutch geophysicist has immersed himself in the mechanisms of disasters and disaster prevention since the beginning of his scientific career—first as professor of seismic imaging and later as professor of innovation at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands. We talked to him at the university campus that lies 3 meters below sea level. At his laboratory, Berkhout analyzes the early warning systems and contingency plans that will be needed to protect both his lab and his compatriots. “We can’t stop earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, or tidal waves from happening,” he stresses. “And we may never be able to predict hurricanes or earthquakes with sufficient accuracy. Nor can we hope to prevent people from living in dangerous places. They are simply too attractive.” Human beings indeed seem addicted to living on the edge of catastrophe. The World Bank has calculated that a fifth of all countries are under permanent threat of natural disaster, with some 3.4 billion people—roughly half the world’s population—at heightened risk of being killed by one. Yet unsafe regions are often exceptionally popular places to live and work, one reason being that floodplains and the slopes of volcanoes are highly fertile. The climate is milder along the coast, the soil better, and transport more efficient than farther inland. Even the likelihood of earthquakes isn’t enough to persuade people to live elsewhere, as witnessed by some of the most densely populated areas of California and Japan. Current migration trends—moving to where the action is—suggest that the proportion of people living in unsafe areas will only increase.


2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer B. Nuzzo ◽  
Diane Meyer ◽  
Michael Snyder ◽  
Sanjana J. Ravi ◽  
Ana Lapascu ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The 2014–2016 Ebola outbreak was a wake-up call regarding the critical importance of resilient health systems. Fragile health systems can become overwhelmed during public health crises, further exacerbating the human, economic, and political toll. Important work has been done to describe the general attributes of a health system resilient to these crises, and the next step will be to identify the specific capacities that health systems need to develop and maintain to achieve resiliency. Methods We conducted a scoping review of the literature to identify recurring themes and capacities needed for health system resiliency to infectious disease outbreaks and natural hazards and any existing implementation frameworks that highlight these capacities. We also sought to identify the overlap of the identified themes and capacities with those highlighted in the World Health Organization’s Joint External Evaluation. Sources of evidence included PubMed, Web of Science, OAIster, and the websites of relevant major public health organizations. Results We identified 16 themes of health system resilience, including: the need to develop plans for altered standards of care during emergencies, the need to develop plans for post-event recovery, and a commitment to quality improvement. Most of the literature described the general attributes of a resilient health system; no implementation frameworks were identified that could translate these elements into specific capacities that health system actors can employ to improve resilience to outbreaks and natural hazards in a variety of settings. Conclusions An implementation-oriented health system resilience framework could help translate the important components of a health system identified in this review into specific capacities that actors in the health system could work to develop to improve resilience to public health crises. However, there remains a need to further refine the concept of resilience so that health systems can simultaneously achieve sustainable transformations in healthcare practice and health service delivery as well as improve their preparedness for emergencies.


2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
YuHang Zhang ◽  
Tao Zeng ◽  
Lei Chen ◽  
ShiJian Ding ◽  
Tao Huang ◽  
...  

Coronaviruses are specific crown-shaped viruses that were first identified in the 1960s, and three typical examples of the most recent coronavirus disease outbreaks include severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), and COVID-19. Particularly, COVID-19 is currently causing a worldwide pandemic, threatening the health of human beings globally. The identification of viral pathogenic mechanisms is important for further developing effective drugs and targeted clinical treatment methods. The delayed revelation of viral infectious mechanisms is currently one of the technical obstacles in the prevention and treatment of infectious diseases. In this study, we proposed a random walk model to identify the potential pathological mechanisms of COVID-19 on a virus–human protein interaction network, and we effectively identified a group of proteins that have already been determined to be potentially important for COVID-19 infection and for similar SARS infections, which help further developing drugs and targeted therapeutic methods against COVID-19. Moreover, we constructed a standard computational workflow for predicting the pathological biomarkers and related pharmacological targets of infectious diseases.


2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heyong Wang ◽  
Dehang Zeng

With the development of computer science and information science, text classification technology has been greatly developed and its application scenarios have been widened. In traditional process of text classification, the existing method will lose much logical relationship information of text. The logical relationship information of a text refers to the relationship information among different logical parts of the text, such as title, abstract, and body. When human beings are reading, they will take title as an important part to remind the central idea of the article, abstract as a brief summary of the content of the article, and body as a detailed description of the article. In most of the text classification studies, researchers concern more about the relationship among words (word frequency, semantics, etc.) and neglect the logical relationship information of text. It will lose information about the relationship among different parts (title, body, etc.) and have an influence on the performance of text classification. Therefore, we propose a text classification algorithm—fusing the logical relationship information of text in neural network (FLRIOTINN), which complements the logical relationship information into text classification algorithms. Experiments show that the effect of FLRIOTINN is better than the conventional backpropagation neural networks which does not consider the logical relationship information of text.


2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 3-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Howard

In no other time in human history has the relationship between human beings, and the biosphere on which we depend, been fraught with such a sense of urgency. Responding to the imminent threat of climate change has focussed our attention on education. There has been a proliferation of international, national and regional programs designed to change attitudes, behaviours, and beliefs associated with the causes of climate change. This paper will look to phenomenology and pedagogy to attempt describe the experience of climate and to help us consider how we may allow the young to live in a time of inevitable climate disruption while  nurturing what seems to come to them naturally, an embodied integration into the wonder and awe of the places they live.  Also, this paper explores two dominant approaches to climate change education and asks how these approaches articulate an understanding of the essential relationship between humans and the larger living world as reflected through changing climatic conditions. 


Author(s):  
Ivis García

Along with sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean is among the geographic regions most exposed and vulnerable to the occurrence of disasters. The vulnerability is explained by geography and climate, but also by prevailing poverty and inequality. Year after year, multiple disasters such as landslides, hurricanes, floods, rains, droughts, storms, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis, among others, threaten the region. Natural disasters reveal the deficiencies of infrastructure and essential services. In particular, they highlight the lack of an institutional framework for effective governance with clearly defined goals of how to prevent, respond to, and reconstruct after a natural catastrophe. One of the priorities of governments in the region is to achieve resilience—that is, to strengthen the capacity to resist, adapt, and recover from the effects of natural disasters. To be able to accomplish this, governments need to prepare before a natural disaster strikes. Therefore, disaster risk management is critical. A fundamental element in the strategy of increasing resilience is good planning in general—that is, to reduce inequality, manage urbanization, and invest in necessary infrastructure such as energy, sewage, and water management. Because climate change increases the risk of disasters, it is generally understood that good governance practices can prevent further global warming. Governments might achieve this, for example, by investing in renewable energy and financing other environmentally friendly initiatives. Unfortunately, most current governance models in Latin America and the Caribbean are characterized by bureaucratic structures that are fragmented into different sectors and whose actors do not have much interaction between them. With technical assistance from organizations, such as the World Bank and the United Nations, stakeholders in Latin America and the Caribbean are learning how to develop plans that encourage the collaboration of multiple sectors (e.g., transportation, housing) and improve the working relationships between various institutions (e.g. local associations, NGOs, private and public organizations). To be adequately prepared for a disaster, it is necessary to establish a network of actors that can engage quickly in decision-making and coordinate effectively between local, regional, and national levels.


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