Deducing the Principal Principle

2019 ◽  
pp. 98-137
Author(s):  
Carl Hoefer
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Principal Principle ◽  
Epistemic Agent ◽  
Von Mises

This chapter gives two distinct justifications of the Principal Principle (PP) for Humean objective chances (HOCs). The first justification is “consequentialist” in nature: it shows that in practical decision-making, an agent who has to make bets on repeated chancy events of type A, and who knows the chance of A but has no better information (the scenario of PP), will do better setting her credence equal to the chance of A than she can do with any other, significantly different, betting strategy. The second justification shows that an epistemic agent meeting the conditions for application of PP is irrational—logically incoherent, in fact—if she sets her credence to a level substantially different from the chance. This argument is an adaptation of one originally offered by Colin Howson and Peter Urbach (1993) to justify the PP for von Mises–style hypothetical frequentism. It is shown that the argument works better in support of HOC than it did in support of frequentism.

scholarly journals HAS THE COVID-19 CRISIS PUT PLANNING BACK ON THE AGENDA?

2021 ◽  
Vol 230 (4) ◽  
pp. 259-273
Author(s):  
J. Sapir­ ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Market Failures ◽  
Economic Calculation ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
War Economy ◽  
Flexible Mode ◽  
To Come ◽  
Post War ◽  
Von Mises

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the emergence of an unforeseen event with far-reaching consequences. This surprise invalidated the traditional results of economic calculation and made the act of political decision-making emerge as central as the markets proved incapable of handling this type of event. In such a situation, the political decision turns out to be more effective than economic calculation. This is also the case with heuristic decision-making because it becomes impossible to calculate in advance the consequences of the unforeseeable event. In this situation, O. Neurath had shown in the debate with L. von Mises and F.A. Hayek that planning could be an effective alternative to a market. J.E. Stiglitz has stressed the risk of market failures too. It is therefore now clear that the health crisis has revived the issue of planning. The fear of a recurrence of such a pandemic will permanently shape economic behaviour in the years to come. We find empirical applications both in the case of war economies during the two world conflicts and in the Japanese or French post-war economy. Conscious and organized consultation, which can then take the form of a flexible mode of planning such as what was practiced in post-war France or in Japan by the MITI, can then - as Claude Gruson shows - prove to be a procedure that is not only effective but empirically efficient in the face of uncertainty and the inability of the market to manage information effectively.

Discarding optimality: Throwing out the baby with the bathwater?

2018 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Simen ◽  
Fuat Balcı
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Perceptual Decision Making ◽  
Reward Rate ◽  
Perceptual Decision ◽  
Standard Observer ◽  
Rate Maximization ◽  
Reward Rate Maximization ◽  
Descriptive Standard ◽  
Observer Model

AbstractRahnev & Denison (R&D) argue against normative theories and in favor of a more descriptive “standard observer model” of perceptual decision making. We agree with the authors in many respects, but we argue that optimality (specifically, reward-rate maximization) has proved demonstrably useful as a hypothesis, contrary to the authors’ claims.

LPCD framework: Analytical tool or psychological model?

2018 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Danks
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Analytical Tool ◽  
Mathematical Framework ◽  
Bayesian Decision ◽  
Perceptual Decision Making ◽  
Psychological Model ◽  
Psychological Reality ◽  
Psychological Theories ◽  
Target Article ◽  
Bayesian Decision Making

AbstractThe target article uses a mathematical framework derived from Bayesian decision making to demonstrate suboptimal decision making but then attributes psychological reality to the framework components. Rahnev & Denison's (R&D) positive proposal thus risks ignoring plausible psychological theories that could implement complex perceptual decision making. We must be careful not to slide from success with an analytical tool to the reality of the tool components.

Elaborating the role of reflection and individual differences in the study of folk-economic beliefs

2018 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Arceneaux
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Individual Differences ◽  
Cognitive Processes ◽  
Evolutionary History ◽  
Behavioral Responses ◽  
History Of ◽  
Economic Beliefs

AbstractIntuitions guide decision-making, and looking to the evolutionary history of humans illuminates why some behavioral responses are more intuitive than others. Yet a place remains for cognitive processes to second-guess intuitive responses – that is, to be reflective – and individual differences abound in automatic, intuitive processing as well.

The primacy of conscious decision making – ERRATUM

2014 ◽  
Vol 38 (01) ◽  
pp. 46
Author(s):  
David R. Shanks ◽  
Ben R. Newell
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Conscious Decision

The primacy of conscious decision making – RETRACTION

2014 ◽  
Vol 38 (01) ◽  
pp. 48
Author(s):  
David R. Shanks ◽  
Ben R. Newell
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Conscious Decision

Abstraction: An alternative neurocognitive account of recognition, prediction, and decision making

2020 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valerie F. Reyna ◽  
David A. Broniatowski
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Software Engineering ◽  
Systems Engineering ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Extensive Literature ◽  
Trace Theory ◽  
Fuzzy Trace Theory ◽  
Abstract Representations ◽  
Technical Systems

Abstract Gilead et al. offer a thoughtful and much-needed treatment of abstraction. However, it fails to build on an extensive literature on abstraction, representational diversity, neurocognition, and psychopathology that provides important constraints and alternative evidence-based conceptions. We draw on conceptions in software engineering, socio-technical systems engineering, and a neurocognitive theory with abstract representations of gist at its core, fuzzy-trace theory.

The Relationship Between Hearing Loss Self-Management and Hearing Aid Benefit and Satisfaction

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 274-284 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Convery ◽  
Gitte Keidser ◽  
Louise Hickson ◽  
Carly Meyer
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Hearing Loss ◽  
Hearing Aids ◽  
Clinical Decision Making ◽  
Hearing Aid ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Self Management ◽  
Hearing Aid Benefit ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose Hearing loss self-management refers to the knowledge and skills people use to manage the effects of hearing loss on all aspects of their daily lives. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between self-reported hearing loss self-management and hearing aid benefit and satisfaction. Method Thirty-seven adults with hearing loss, all of whom were current users of bilateral hearing aids, participated in this observational study. The participants completed self-report inventories probing their hearing loss self-management and hearing aid benefit and satisfaction. Correlation analysis was used to investigate the relationship between individual domains of hearing loss self-management and hearing aid benefit and satisfaction. Results Participants who reported better self-management of the effects of their hearing loss on their emotional well-being and social participation were more likely to report less aided listening difficulty in noisy and reverberant environments and greater satisfaction with the effect of their hearing aids on their self-image. Participants who reported better self-management in the areas of adhering to treatment, participating in shared decision making, accessing services and resources, attending appointments, and monitoring for changes in their hearing and functional status were more likely to report greater satisfaction with the sound quality and performance of their hearing aids. Conclusion Study findings highlight the potential for using information about a patient's hearing loss self-management in different domains as part of clinical decision making and management planning.

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