GCM Simulations of Cirrus for Climate Studies

Cirrus ◽  
2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony D. Del Genio
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Short Wave ◽  
Convective Transport ◽  
Radiation Balance ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Wave Effects ◽  
Jet Streaks ◽  
Different Parts

One of the great challenges in predicting the rate and geographical pattern of climate change is to faithfully represent the feedback effects of various cloud types that arise via different mechanisms in different parts of the atmosphere. Cirrus clouds are a particularly uncertain component of general circulation model (GCM) simulations of long-term climate change for a variety of reasons, as detailed below. First, cirrus encompass a wide range of optical thicknesses and altitudes. At one extreme are the thin tropopause cirrus that barely affect the short-wave albedo while radiating to space at very cold temperatures, producing a net positive effect on the planetary radiation balance and causing local upper troposphere warming, thus stabilizing the lapse rate. At the other extreme are thick cumulus anvil cirrus whose bases descend to the freezing level; these clouds produce significant but opposing short-wave and long-wave effects on the planetary energy balance while cooling the surface via their reflection of sunlight. In fact, satellite climatologies show a continuum of optical thicknesses between these two extremes (Rossow and Schiffer 1991). In a climate change, the net effect of cirrus might either be a positive or a negative feedback, depending on the sign and magnitude of the cloud cover change in each cloud-type category and the direction and extent of changes in their optical properties (see Stephens et al. 1990). Second, the dynamic processes that create cirrus are poorly resolved and different in different parts of the globe. In the tropics, small-scale convective transport of water from the planetary boundary layer to the upper troposphere is the immediate source of a significant fraction of the condensate in mesoscale cirrus anvils (see Gamache and Houze 1983), and ultimately the source of much of the water vapor that condenses out in large-scale uplift to form thinner cirrus. However, many observed thin cirrus cannot directly be identified with a convective source, suggesting that in situ upper troposphere dynamics and regeneration processes within cirrus (see Starr and Cox 1985) are important. In mid-latitudes, although summertime continental convection is a source of cirrus, in general cirrus is associated with mesoscale frontal circulations in synoptic-scale baroclinic waves and jet streaks (see Starr and Wylie 1990; Mace et al. 1995).

scholarly journals Abrupt Circulation Responses to Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Warming in a Relatively Simple Stratosphere-Resolving AGCM

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (12) ◽  
pp. 4097-4115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuguang Wang ◽  
Edwin P. Gerber ◽  
Lorenzo M. Polvani
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Critical Threshold ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Upper Troposphere

Abstract The circulation response of the atmosphere to climate change–like thermal forcing is explored with a relatively simple, stratosphere-resolving general circulation model. The model is forced with highly idealized physics, but integrates the primitive equations at resolution comparable to comprehensive climate models. An imposed forcing mimics the warming induced by greenhouse gasses in the low-latitude upper troposphere. The forcing amplitude is progressively increased over a range comparable in magnitude to the warming projected by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change coupled climate model scenarios. For weak to moderate warming, the circulation response is remarkably similar to that found in comprehensive models: the Hadley cell widens and weakens, the tropospheric midlatitude jets shift poleward, and the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) increases. However, when the warming of the tropical upper troposphere exceeds a critical threshold, ~5 K, an abrupt change of the atmospheric circulation is observed. In the troposphere the extratropical eddy-driven jet jumps poleward nearly 10°. In the stratosphere the polar vortex intensifies and the BDC weakens as the intraseasonal coupling between the troposphere and the stratosphere shuts down. The key result of this study is that an abrupt climate transition can be effected by changes in atmospheric dynamics alone, without need for the strong nonlinearities typically associated with physical parameterizations. It is verified that the abrupt climate shift reported here is not an artifact of the model’s resolution or numerics.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of Global Modeling Initiative chemistry and transport model simulations of radon-222 and lead-210 to input meteorological data

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 5325-5372 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. B. Considine ◽  
D. J. Bergmann ◽  
H. Liu
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Convective Transport ◽  
Global Modeling ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Lead 210

Abstract. We have used the Global Modeling Initiative chemistry and transport model to simulate the radionuclides radon-222 and lead-210 using three different sets of input meteorological information: 1. Output from the Goddard Space Flight Center Global Modeling and Assimilation Office GEOS-STRAT assimilation; 2. Output from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies GISS II′ general circulation model; and 3. Output from the National Center for Atmospheric Research MACCM3 general circulation model. We intercompare these simulations with observations to determine the variability resulting from the different meteorological data used to drive the model, and to assess the agreement of the simulations with observations at the surface and in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere region. The observational datasets we use are primarily climatologies developed from multiple years of observations. In the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere region, climatological distributions of lead-210 were constructed from ~25 years of aircraft and balloon observations compiled into the US Environmental Measurements Laboratory RANDAB database. Taken as a whole, no simulation stands out as superior to the others. However, the simulation driven by the NCAR MACCM3 meteorological data compares better with lead-210 observations in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere region. Comparisons of simulations made with and without convection show that the role played by convective transport and scavenging in the three simulations differs substantially. These differences may have implications for evaluation of the importance of very short-lived halogen-containing species on stratospheric halogen budgets.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of Global Modeling Initiative chemistry and transport model simulations of radon-222 and lead-210 to input meteorological data

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (12) ◽  
pp. 3389-3406 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. B. Considine ◽  
D. J. Bergmann ◽  
H. Liu
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Convective Transport ◽  
Global Modeling ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Lead 210

Abstract. We have used the Global Modeling Initiative chemistry and transport model to simulate the radionuclides radon-222 and lead-210 using three different sets of input meteorological information: 1. Output from the Goddard Space Flight Center Global Modeling and Assimilation Office GEOS-STRAT assimilation; 2. Output from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies GISS II' general circulation model; and 3. Output from the National Center for Atmospheric Research MACCM3 general circulation model. We intercompare these simulations with observations to determine the variability resulting from the different meteorological data used to drive the model, and to assess the agreement of the simulations with observations at the surface and in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere region. The observational datasets we use are primarily climatologies developed from multiple years of observations. In the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere region, climatological distributions of lead-210 were constructed from ~25 years of aircraft and balloon observations compiled into the US Environmental Measurements Laboratory RANDAB database. Taken as a whole, no simulation stands out as superior to the others. However, the simulation driven by the NCAR MACCM3 meteorological data compares better with lead-210 observations in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere region. Comparisons of simulations made with and without convection show that the role played by convective transport and scavenging in the three simulations differs substantially. These differences may have implications for evaluation of the importance of very short-lived halogen-containing species on stratospheric halogen budgets.

“Modes of Variability” and Climate Change

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (10) ◽  
pp. 2639-2658 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grant Branstator ◽  
Frank Selten
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Stochastic Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Meridional Wind ◽  
Model Atmosphere ◽  
Linear Pattern ◽  
Modes Of Variability ◽  
Mean State

Abstract A 62-member ensemble of coupled general circulation model (GCM) simulations of the years 1940–2080, including the effects of projected greenhouse gas increases, is examined. The focus is on the interplay between the trend in the Northern Hemisphere December–February (DJF) mean state and the intrinsic modes of variability of the model atmosphere as given by the upper-tropospheric meridional wind. The structure of the leading modes and the trend are similar. Two commonly proposed explanations for this similarity are considered. Several results suggest that this similarity in most respects is consistent with an explanation involving patterns that result from the model dynamics being well approximated by a linear system. Specifically, the leading intrinsic modes are similar to the leading modes of a stochastic model linearized about the mean state of the GCM atmosphere, trends in GCM tropical precipitation appear to excite the leading linear pattern, and the probability density functions (PDFs) of prominent circulation patterns are quasi-Gaussian. There are, on the other hand, some subtle indications that an explanation for the similarity involving preferred states (which necessarily result from nonlinear influences) has some relevance. For example, though unimodal, PDFs of prominent patterns have departures from Gaussianity that are suggestive of a mixture of two Gaussian components. And there is some evidence of a shift in probability between the two components as the climate changes. Interestingly, contrary to the most prominent theory of the influence of nonlinearly produced preferred states on climate change, the centroids of the components also change as the climate changes. This modification of the system’s preferred states corresponds to a change in the structure of its dominant patterns. The change in pattern structure is reproduced by the linear stochastic model when its basic state is modified to correspond to the trend in the general circulation model’s mean atmospheric state. Thus, there is a two-way interaction between the trend and the modes of variability.

scholarly journals Meteorological modes of variability for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality in the United States: implications for PM2.5 sensitivity to climate change

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 3131-3145 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. P. K. Tai ◽  
L. J. Mickley ◽  
D. J. Jacob ◽  
E. M. Leibensperger ◽  
L. Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Modes Of Variability ◽  
The Us ◽  
Cyclone Frequency

Abstract. We applied a multiple linear regression model to understand the relationships of PM2.5 with meteorological variables in the contiguous US and from there to infer the sensitivity of PM2.5 to climate change. We used 2004–2008 PM2.5 observations from ~1000 sites (~200 sites for PM2.5 components) and compared to results from the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model (CTM). All data were deseasonalized to focus on synoptic-scale correlations. We find strong positive correlations of PM2.5 components with temperature in most of the US, except for nitrate in the Southeast where the correlation is negative. Relative humidity (RH) is generally positively correlated with sulfate and nitrate but negatively correlated with organic carbon. GEOS-Chem results indicate that most of the correlations of PM2.5 with temperature and RH do not arise from direct dependence but from covariation with synoptic transport. We applied principal component analysis and regression to identify the dominant meteorological modes controlling PM2.5 variability, and show that 20–40% of the observed PM2.5 day-to-day variability can be explained by a single dominant meteorological mode: cold frontal passages in the eastern US and maritime inflow in the West. These and other synoptic transport modes drive most of the overall correlations of PM2.5 with temperature and RH except in the Southeast. We show that interannual variability of PM2.5 in the US Midwest is strongly correlated with cyclone frequency as diagnosed from a spectral-autoregressive analysis of the dominant meteorological mode. An ensemble of five realizations of 1996–2050 climate change with the GISS general circulation model (GCM) using the same climate forcings shows inconsistent trends in cyclone frequency over the Midwest (including in sign), with a likely decrease in cyclone frequency implying an increase in PM2.5. Our results demonstrate the need for multiple GCM realizations (because of climate chaos) when diagnosing the effect of climate change on PM2.5, and suggest that analysis of meteorological modes of variability provides a computationally more affordable approach for this purpose than coupled GCM-CTM studies.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Mekong River basin: a case study of the Nam Ou basin, Lao PDR

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Shrestha ◽  
M. S. Babel ◽  
S. Maskey ◽  
A. van Griensven ◽  
S. Uhlenbrook ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sediment Yield ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Sediment Flux ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Nam Ou basin located in northern Laos. Future climate (temperature and precipitation) from four general circulation models (GCMs) that are found to perform well in the Mekong region and a regional circulation model (PRECIS) are downscaled using a delta change approach. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to assess future changes in sediment flux attributable to climate change. Results indicate up to 3.0 °C shift in seasonal temperature and 27% (decrease) to 41% (increase) in seasonal precipitation. The largest increase in temperature is observed in the dry season while the largest change in precipitation is observed in the wet season. In general, temperature shows increasing trends but changes in precipitation are not unidirectional and vary depending on the greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES), climate models, prediction period and season. The simulation results show that the changes in annual stream discharges are likely to range from a 17% decrease to 66% increase in the future, which will lead to predicted changes in annual sediment yield ranging from a 27% decrease to about 160% increase. Changes in intra-annual (monthly) discharge as well as sediment yield are even greater (−62 to 105% in discharge and −88 to 243% in sediment yield). A higher discharge and sediment flux are expected during the wet seasons, although the highest relative changes are observed during the dry months. The results indicate high uncertainties in the direction and magnitude of changes of discharge as well as sediment yields due to climate change. As the projected climate change impact on sediment varies remarkably between the different climate models, the uncertainty should be taken into account in both sediment management and climate change adaptation.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on Cotton Yield using Cropsyst and Regression Models

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 1433-1451 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pantazis Georgiou ◽  
Panagiota Koukouli
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Planting Date ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Cotton Yield ◽  
Cotton Production

The regional as well as the international crop production is expected to be influenced by climate change. This study describes an assessment of simulated potential cotton yield using CropSyst, a cropping systems simulation model, in Northern Greece. CropSyst was used under the General Circulation Model CGCM3.1/T63 of the climate change scenario SRES B1 for time periods of climate change 2020-2050 and 2070-2100 for two planting dates. Additionally, an appraisal of the relationship between climate variables, potential evapotranspiration and cotton yield was done based on regression models. Multiple linear regression models based on climate variables and potential evapotranspiration could be used as a simple tool for the prediction of crop yield changes in response to climate change in the future. The CropSyst simulation under SRES B1, resulted in an increase by 6% for the period 2020-2050 and a decrease by about 15% in cotton yield for 2070-2100. For the earlier planting date a higher increase and a slighter reduction was observed in cotton yield for 2020-2050 and 2070-2100, respectively. The results indicate that alteration of crop management practices, such as changing the planting date could be used as potential adaptation measures to address the impacts of climate change on cotton production.

scholarly journals Modeling and predicting suspended sediment load under climate change conditions: a new hybridization strategy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saeed Farzin ◽  
Mahdi Valikhan Anaraki
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Suspended Sediment ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Sediment Load ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Suspended Sediment Load ◽  
Inference System ◽  
New Strategy

Abstract In the present study, for the first time, a new strategy based on a combination of the hybrid least-squares support-vector machine (LS-SVM) and flower pollination optimization algorithm (FPA), average 24 general circulation model (GCM) output, and delta change factor method has been developed to achieve the impacts of climate change on runoff and suspended sediment load (SSL) in the Lighvan Basin in the period (2020–2099). Also, the results of modeling were compared to those of LS-SVM and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) methods. The comparison of runoff and SSL modeling results showed that the LS-SVM-FPA algorithm had the best results and the ANFIS algorithm had the worst results. After the acceptable performance of the LS-SVM-FPA algorithm was proved, the algorithm was used to predict runoff and SSL under climate change conditions based on ensemble GCM outputs for periods (2020–2034, 2035–2049, 2070–2084, and 2085–2099) under three scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The results showed a decrease in the runoff in all periods and scenarios, except for the two near periods under the RCP2.6 scenario for runoff. The predicted runoff and SSL time series also showed that the SSL values were lower than the average observation period, except for 2036–2039 (up to an 8% increase in 2038).

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