From “Inconvenient Truth” to Effective Governance

Author(s):  
Richard Passarelli ◽  
David Michel ◽  
William Durch

The Earth’s climate system is a global public good. Maintaining it is a collective action problem. This chapter looks at a quarter-century of efforts to understand and respond to the challenges posed by global climate change and why the collective political response, until very recently, has seemed to lag so far behind our scientific knowledge of the problem. The chapter tracks the efforts of the main global, intergovernmental process for negotiating both useful and politically acceptable responses to climate change, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, but also highlights efforts by scientific and environmental groups and, more recently, networks of sub-national governments—especially cities—and of businesses to redefine interests so as to meet the dangers of climate system disruption.

Author(s):  
Cynthia Rosenzweig ◽  
Daniel Hillel

The climate system envelops our planet, with swirling fluxes of mass, momentum, and energy through air, water, and land. Its processes are partly regular and partly chaotic. The regularity of diurnal and seasonal fluctuations in these processes is well understood. Recently, there has been significant progress in understanding some of the mechanisms that induce deviations from that regularity in many parts of the globe. These mechanisms include a set of combined oceanic–atmospheric phenomena with quasi-regular manifestations. The largest of these is centered in the Pacific Ocean and is known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The term “oscillation” refers to a shifting pattern of atmospheric pressure gradients that has distinct manifestations in its alternating phases. In the Arctic and North Atlantic regions, the occurrence of somewhat analogous but less regular interactions known as the Arctic Oscillation and its offshoot, the North Atlantic Oscillation, are also being studied. These and other major oscillations influence climate patterns in many parts of the globe. Examples of other large-scale interactive ocean–atmosphere– land processes are the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the Pacific/North American pattern, the Tropical Atlantic Variability, the West Pacific pattern, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, and the Indian Ocean Dipole. In this chapter we review the earth’s climate system in general, define climate variability, and describe the processes related to ENSO and the other major systems and their interactions. We then consider the possible connections of the major climate variability systems to anthropogenic global climate change. The climate system consists of a series of fluxes and transformations of energy (radiation, sensible and latent heat, and momentum), as well as transports and changes in the state of matter (air, water, solid matter, and biota) as conveyed and influenced by the atmosphere, the ocean, and the land masses. Acting like a giant engine, this dynamic system is driven by the infusion, transformation, and redistribution of energy.


Author(s):  
Michael H. Fox

We, the teeming billions of people on earth, are changing the earth’s climate at an unprecedented rate because we are spewing out greenhouse gases and are heading to a disaster, say most climate scientists. Not so, say the skeptics. We are just experiencing normal variations in earth’s climate and we should all take a big breath, settle down, and worry about something else. Which is it? A national debate has raged for the last several decades about whether anthropogenic (man-made) sources of carbon dioxide (CO2 ) and other so-called “greenhouse gases“ (primarily methane and nitrous oxide) are causing the world to heat up. This phenomenon is usually called “global warming,” but it is more appropriate to call it “global climate change,” since it is not simply an increase in global temperatures but rather more complex changes to the overall climate. Al Gore is a prominent spokesman for the theory that humans are causing an increase in greenhouse gases leading to global climate change. His movie and book, An Inconvenient Truth, gave the message widespread awareness and resulted in a Nobel Peace Prize for him in 2008. However, the message also led to widespread criticism. On the one hand are a few scientists and a large segment of the general American public who believe that there is no connection between increased CO2 in the atmosphere and global climate change, or if there is, it is too expensive to do anything about it, anyway. On the other hand is an overwhelming consensus of climate scientists who have produced enormous numbers of research papers demonstrating that increased CO2 is changing the earth’s climate. The scientific consensus is expressed most clearly in the Fourth Assessment Report in 2007 by the United Nations–sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the fourth in a series of reports since 1990. The IPCC began as a group of scientists meeting in Geneva in November 1988 to discuss global climate issues under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Program.


Author(s):  
Stella Z. Theodoulou ◽  
Ravi K. Roy

The forces of globalization are compelling public administrators to direct their attention increasingly towards transnational forms of governance. ‘Globalization and the rise of network governance’ shows that in network governance-type systems, power and authority tend to be decentralized and dispersed among a variety of autonomous stakeholders operating beyond the scope and control of national governments. They are organized around values, concerns, issues, and problems ranging from global climate change to human security. Flexible and fluid in their organizational structure, they allow participants to flow in and out of a network as circumstances change. Examples of how governing networks have been particularly influential in addressing the climate change crisis are provided.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rowan T. Sutton ◽  
Ed Hawkins

Abstract. Policy making on climate change routinely employs socio-economic scenarios to sample the uncertainty in future forcing of the climate system, but the IPCC has not developed similar discrete scenarios to sample the uncertainty in the global climate response. Here we argue that to enable development of robust policies this gap should be addressed, and we propose a simple methodology.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah S. Eggleston ◽  
Oliver Bothe ◽  
Nerilie Abram ◽  
Bronwen Konecky ◽  
Hans Linderholm ◽  
...  

<p>The past two thousand years is a key interval for climate science because this period encompasses both the era of human-induced global warming and a much longer interval when changes in Earth's climate were governed principally by natural drivers. This earlier 'pre-industrial' period is particularly important for two reasons. Firstly, we now have a growing number of well-dated, climate sensitive proxy data with high temporal resolution that spans the full period. Secondly, the pre-industrial climate provides context for present-day climate change, sets real-world targets against which to evaluate the performance of climate models, and allows us to address other questions of Earth sciences that cannot be answered using only a century and a half of observational data. </p><p>Here, we first provide several perspectives on the concept of a 'pre-industrial climate'. Then, we highlight the activities of the PAGES 2k Network, an international collaborative effort focused on global climate change during the past two thousand years. We highlight those aspects of pre-industrial conditions (including both past climate changes and past climate drivers) that are not yet well constrained, and suggest potential areas for research during this period that would be relevant to the evolution of Earth's future climate.</p>


2011 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 281-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Good ◽  
John Caesar ◽  
Dan Bernie ◽  
Jason A. Lowe ◽  
Paul van der Linden ◽  
...  

This article reviews some of the major lines of recent scientific progress relevant to the choice of global climate policy targets, focusing on changes in understanding since publication of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4). Developments are highlighted in the following major climate system components: ice sheets; sea ice; the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; tropical forests; and accelerated carbon release from permafrost and ocean hydrates. The most significant developments in each component are identified by synthesizing input from multiple experts from each field. Overall, while large uncertainties remain in all fields, some substantial progress in understanding is revealed.


2006 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dragoljub Belic

Global warming or Climate change refers to long-term fluctuations in temperature, precipitation, wind, and other elements of the Earth's climate system. Natural processes such as solar-irradiance variations, variations in the Earth's orbital parameters, and volcanic activity can produce variations in climate. The climate system can also be influenced by changes in the concentration of various gases in the atmosphere, which affect the Earth's absorption of radiation.


2012 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. I. Dorman

Abstract. We consider possible effects of cosmic rays and some other space factors on the Earth's climate change. It is well known that the system of internal and external factors formatting the climate is very unstable; decreasing planetary temperature leads to an increase of snow surface, and decrease of the total solar energy input into the system decreases the planetary temperature even more, etc. From this it follows that even energetically small factors may have a big influence on climate change. In our opinion, the most important of these factors are cosmic rays and cosmic dust through their influence on clouds, and thus, on climate.


Author(s):  
Andrew S. Cohen

Exciting days lie ahead for paleolimnology. As we embark on a new millennium, the opportunities and challenges in this field are extremely bright. As an epilogue to this book, it seems appropriate to conclude with a few of the developments that seem to me particularly promising for the near future. 1. Increasing application of paleolimnological data to address problems in global climate change. Paleolimnologists need to make governments and societies aware of the importance of high-resolution paleorecords from lakes for providing information about baseline variability of the biosphere, consequences and histories of past climate change events, and past responses of our precious aquatic resources to such changes. Paleolimnology should and will increasingly play a role in providing decision-makers with critical information about earth system history as they formulate policies to cope with these changes. Few, if any, paleoenvironmental records provide earth history records in environments as intimately associated with human activity as lake deposits. Lakes and wetlands are increasingly recognized as potentially important components of the global carbon cycle, especially as environments for sequestering large volumes of carbon, and future research will undoubtedly quantify the magnitude and dynamics of this role. Paleolimnologists will need to work even more closely with climate modelers, hydrologists, and atmospheric scientists in years to come, to insure that the paleorecords we study will help resolve important questions about the earth’s climate system. 2. Advances in geobiology. The rapid developments of new and automated tools in molecular biology and organic geochemistry for analyzing small sample volumes and extracting compound-specific isotopic information from organic compounds have important implications for paleolimnology. In years to come we will increasingly rely on organic geochemistry and microbial geobiology to help decipher the organic record of algal primary producers, decomposers, and other elements of the microbial food web. These are components of a lake’s ecosystem that ecologists recognize as immensely important in biogeochemical cycles and as being on the front line of lake responses to changes in climate and watershed processes, but which have heretofore been largely intractable to any detailed interpretation by paleolimnologists.


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