Independence Revisited

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert E. Goodin ◽  
Kai Spiekermann
Keyword(s):  
Final Section ◽  
The State ◽  
Statistical Independence ◽  
Decision Situation ◽  
Independence Assumption ◽  
Condorcet Jury Theorem ◽  
Condorcet’S Jury Theorem ◽  
Common Causes ◽  
The World ◽  
Jury Theorem

The Independence Assumption is the most misunderstood premise of the Condorcet Jury Theorem. This chapter shows, first, that absence of direct voter interaction is neither necessary nor sufficient for Independence. Second, we explain that the statistical independence required is conditional: in Condorcet’s jury theorem, conditional on the state of the world; in other jury theorems, conditional on the evidence, on common causes, or on the whole decision situation. This insight leads, third, to the ‘Best Responder Corollary’, a jury theorem that is better suited to dealing with the inevitable interdependence of votes caused by common causes. In the final section, we discuss epistemic implications.

The Concept and Task of Eschatology — Theological and Philosophical Reflections

1988 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
pp. 499-515 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Sauter
Keyword(s):  
Final Section ◽  
The State ◽  
Human History ◽  
Preceding Section ◽  
Last Judgment ◽  
The World ◽  
Resurrection Of The Dead ◽  
The Dead ◽  
Lutheran Orthodoxy ◽  
And Task

(1) The term ‘eschatology’ stems from Abraham Calov who entitled the twelfth and last section of his masterpiece of dogmatics, Systema locorum Theologicorum (1677), ‘EΣXATOΛOΓIA Sacra’. This final section, which concludes the Dogmatics of a leading representative of Lutheran Orthodoxy, deals with the ‘last things’ (de novissimis), specifically death and the state after death, the resurrection of the dead, the last Judgment, the consummation of the world, hell and everlasting death, and, finally, life everlasting. Calov does not define the artificial term ‘eschatologia’ which he himself had probably coined; he hardly even explains it in the course of his presentation, so that it remains a mere heading. Clearly it applies to the eschaton, namely ‘the end’, which, according to I Cor. 15.24, comes about when Christ, after subjugating all powers and authorities, delivers over the dominion to God the Father (quaestio 2). In the preceding section Calov had cited NT texts which explicitly or implicitly speak of the eschata, the last things, or of the last day/days as the conclusion of human history.

scholarly journals Epistemic democracy and political legitimacy

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Sheng Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Political Legitimacy ◽  
The State ◽  
Epistemic Value ◽  
Democratic Legitimacy ◽  
Epistemic Democracy ◽  
Condorcet’S Jury Theorem ◽  
Jury Theorem ◽  
The Common ◽  
Egalitarian Principle

My dissertation aims to answer two questions: (1) Is democracy epistemically valuable? (2) Is the epistemic value of democracy, if it has any, necessary for justifying its legitimacy? I argue that democracy in certain form can be epistemically valuable. However, I also argue that the epistemic value of democracy is not necessary for justifying its legitimacy. To defend the epistemic value of democracy, I propose a postdeliberation version of Condorcet's jury theorem. I argue that this version of the jury theorem can avoid the common challenges against the classic version. To reject the necessity of epistemic value for democratic legitimacy, I argue that, given that the epistemic value of democracy is subject to disagreement, it cannot be used to justify legitimacy. In addition, I provide a purely proceduralist argument for democratic legitimacy, which appeals to the egalitarian principle that every citizens ought to be equally respected by the state. This argument, if succeeds, shows that the epistemic value of democracy is not necessary for justifying democratic legitimacy.

scholarly journals A Condorcet Jury Theorem for Large Poisson Elections with Multiple Alternatives

Games ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 2
Author(s):  
Johanna M. M. Goertz
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
Previous Literature ◽  
Plurality Rule ◽  
Condorcet Jury Theorem ◽  
Correct Alternative ◽  
State Of Nature ◽  
Voting Game ◽  
Common Interests ◽  
Jury Theorem ◽  
Two Alternatives

Herein, we prove a Condorcet jury theorem (CJT) for large elections with multiple alternatives. Voters have common interests that depend on an unknown state of nature. Each voter receives an imprecise private signal about the state of nature and then submits one vote (simple plurality rule). We also assume that this is a Poisson voting game with population uncertainty. The question is whether the simple plurality rule aggregates information efficiently so that the correct alternative is elected with probability tending to one when the number of voters tends to infinity. The previous literature shows that the CJT holds for large elections with two alternatives, but there is also an example of a large election with three alternatives that has an inefficient equilibrium. We show that there always exists an efficient equilibrium, independent of the number of alternatives. Under certain circumstances (informative types), it is unique in elections with two alternatives. The existence of inefficient equilibria in elections with more than two alternatives is generic.

scholarly journals A functional equation of tail-balance for continuous signals in the Condorcet Jury Theorem

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steve Alpern ◽  
Bo Chen ◽  
Adam J. Ostaszewski
Keyword(s):  
Functional Equation ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
The State ◽  
Condorcet Jury Theorem ◽  
Signal Distribution ◽  
Binary Signal ◽  
Marquis De Condorcet ◽  
Jury Theorem ◽  
Natural Symmetry ◽  
States Of Nature

Abstract Consider an odd-sized jury, which determines a majority verdict between two equiprobable states of Nature. If each juror independently receives a binary signal identifying the correct state with identical probability p, then the probability of a correct verdict tends to one as the jury size tends to infinity (Marquis de Condorcet in Essai sur l’application de l’analyse à la probabilité des décisions rendues à la pluralité des voix, Imprim. Royale, Paris, 1785). Recently, Alpern and Chen (Eur J Oper Res 258:1072–1081, 2017, Theory Decis 83:259–282, 2017) developed a model where jurors sequentially receive independent signals from an interval according to a distribution which depends on the state of Nature and on the juror’s “ability”, and vote sequentially. This paper shows that, to mimic Condorcet’s binary signal, such a distribution must satisfy a functional equation related to tail-balance, that is, to the ratio $$\alpha (t)$$ α ( t ) of the probability that a mean-zero random variable satisfies X$$>t$$ > t given that $$|X|>t$$ | X | > t . In particular, we show that under natural symmetry assumptions the tail-balances $$\alpha (t)$$ α ( t ) uniquely determine the signal distribution and so the distributions assumed in Alpern and Chen (Eur J Oper Res 258:1072–1081, 2017, Theory Decis 83:259–282, 2017) are uniquely determined for $$\alpha (t)$$ α ( t ) linear.

scholarly journals The Premises of Condorcet's Jury Theorem Are Not Simultaneously Justified

Episteme ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 56-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Franz Dietrich
Keyword(s):  
Independence Assumption ◽  
Condorcet’S Jury Theorem ◽  
Technical Sense ◽  
Jury Theorem

ABSTRACTCondorcet's famous jury theorem reaches an optimistic conclusion on the correctness of majority decisions, based on two controversial premises about voters: they are competent and vote independently, in a technical sense. I carefully analyse these premises and show that: (i) whether a premise is justified depends on the notion of probability considered and (ii) none of the notions renders both premises simultaneously justified. Under the perhaps most interesting notions, the independence assumption should be weakened.

The Classic Framework

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert E. Goodin ◽  
Kai Spiekermann
Keyword(s):  
Group Size ◽  
Majority Vote ◽  
Asymptotic Result ◽  
Correct Decision ◽  
Independence Assumption ◽  
Condorcet Jury Theorem ◽  
Correct Alternative ◽  
Jury Theorem

In the classic setup of the Condorcet Jury Theorem, voters decide by majority vote between two different options. The Competence Assumption is that all voters are more likely than not to identify the correct alternative with the same probability. The Independence Assumption is that the votes are statistically independent. The Sincerity Assumption is that the voters always vote for the alternative they believe to be correct. Two results follow if these conditions are met. First, the Non-asymptotic Result says that the probability of a correct decision increases in group size. Second, the Asymptotic Result says that this probability converges to 1. We show that this convergence happens very quickly.

scholarly journals Frontera Combustible: Conceptualising the State Through the Experiences of Petrol Smugglers in the Colombian/Venezuelan Borderlands of Norte de Santander/Táchira

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 42-60
Author(s):  
Charles Beach
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Trade Union ◽  
Final Section ◽  
The State ◽  
Ethnographic Research ◽  
Informal Workers ◽  
Anthropology Of The State ◽  
Union Leaders ◽  
The World ◽  
Critical Phenomenology

This paper is based on an ongoing ethnographic research project conducted in the borderlands between Colombia and Venezuela, in particular the Colombian city of Cúcuta. There is a thriving smuggling trade between the two countries caused by Venezuela’s economic crisis and the extreme devaluation of goods. The area has become one of Colombia’s ‘hottest’ regions due to the proliferation of armed gangs that make money by smuggling of contraband, especially petrol. The article aims to describe how petrol vendors, transporters and smugglers conceptualise the state and how they negotiate and interact with state actors present in the borderlands. It engages in an anthropology of the state through the ethnographic lens of organised informal workers. Starting with a theoretical framework, it criticizes attempts to do anthropology in the margins of the state for its uncomfortably Hobbesian vision of the world, and settles instead on a ‘critical phenomenology of power’ (Krupa and Nugent 2015) as a methodology. It goes on to introduce two pimpinero trade unionists and the struggles of running petrol from the border as well as of political organising. The final section analyses this struggle as ‘insurgent citizenship’, a citizenry’s bottom up attempt to claim full access to their rights as citizens (Holston 2013), as well as ethnographically justifying the need for a conceptual borderland region. All informants’ names are anonymized apart from two trade union leaders who requested not to be anonymous.

scholarly journals A Subjectivist Account of Life’s Meaning

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 45-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frans Svensson
Keyword(s):  
Mental State ◽  
Meaning In Life ◽  
Final Section ◽  
The State ◽  
Practical Identity ◽  
A Value ◽  
The World ◽  
Theories Of Meaning

In this paper, I propose and defend a particular desire-based theory of what makes a person’s life meaningful. Desire-based theories avoid the problems facing other theories of meaning in life: in contrast to objectivist theories (both consequentialist and non-consequentialist ones), they succeed in providing a necessary link between what makes a person’s life meaningful and the person’s own set of attitudes or concerns; in contrast to hybrid theories (or subjectivist theories with a value requirement), they avoid the elitism or exclusivism inherent in the former; and in contrast to mental-state theories, they avoid the problem of not taking the state of the world properly into account when determining whether someone’s life is meaningful. However, meaningfulness does not plausibly depend on the satisfaction of just any desires—perhaps especially not on the satisfaction of desires that we experience as alien to ourselves. I therefore suggest that the meaning in your life depends on the extent to which your categorical desires (i.e. those desires that are partly constitutive of your practical identity) are satisfied or fulfilled. In the final section of the paper, I respond to at least four possible objections to this view.

TOURIST BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT IN UKRAINE

2019 ◽  
pp. 39-46
Author(s):  
Stefania Mosiuk ◽  
Igor Mosiuk ◽  
Vladimir Mosiuk
Keyword(s):  
National Economy ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Business Development ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
The State ◽  
Complete Analysis ◽  
Resource Potential ◽  
The World ◽  
Potential Resource ◽  
Favorable Conditions

The purpose of the article is to analyze and substantiate the development of tourism business in Ukraine as a priority component of the national economy. The methodology of this study is to use analytical, spatial, geographical, cultural and other methods. This methodological approach provided an opportunity to carry out a complete analysis of the state of the tourism industry of the state and to draw some conclusions.The scientific novelty lies in the coverage of the real and potential resource potential for the development of the recreational and tourism sphere in Ukraine, detailing the measures for the country ‘s entry into the world tourist market. Conclusions. Analyzing the state and prospects of tourism business development in Ukraine, it should be noted that this industry is one of the priority areas for improving the economy of the country. Historical, cultural – ethnographic, gastronomic, sanatorium and resort potentials of the country will lead the country into world leaders of the tourism industry when creating favorable conditions for investment and proper marketing.

The World Opened to Everyone. The Main Library of Krasnoyarsk Region has Celebrated 75-year Anniversary

2010 ◽  
pp. 99-100
Author(s):  
Julia N. Shubnikova
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
The State ◽  
Krasnoyarsk Region ◽  
The World ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Krasnodar Region

On the State Universal Scientific Library of the Krasnodar region, which is one of the largest regional libraries in the Russian Federation.

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