The Kitchen Sink

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary Smith
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Scatter Plot ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
The World ◽  
Scatter Plots ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The One ◽  
Over Time

Back in the 1980s, I talked to an economics professor who made forecasts for a large bank based on simple correlations like the one in Figure 1. If he wanted to forecast consumer spending, he made a scatter plot of income and spending and used a transparent ruler to draw a line that seemed to fit the data. If the scatter looked like Figure 1, then when income went up, he predicted that spending would go up. The problem with his simple scatter plots is that the world is not simple. Income affects spending, but so does wealth. What if this professor happened to draw his scatter plot using data from a historical period in which income rose (increasing spending) but the stock market crashed (reducing spending) and the wealth effect was more powerful than the income effect, so that spending declined, as in Figure 2? The professor’s scatter plot of spending and income will indicate that an increase in income reduces spending. Then, when he tries to forecast spending for a period when income and wealth both increase, his prediction of a decline in spending will be disastrously wrong. Multiple regression to the rescue. Multiple regression models have multiple explanatory variables. For example, a model of consumer spending might be: C = a + bY + cW where C is consumer spending, Y is household income, and W is wealth. The order in which the explanatory variables are listed does not matter. What does matter is which variables are included in the model and which are left out. A large part of the art of regression analysis is choosing explanatory variables that are important and ignoring those that are unimportant. The coefficient b measures the effect on spending of an increase in income, holding wealth constant, and c measures the effect on spending of an increase in wealth, holding income constant. The math for estimating these coefficients is complicated but the principle is simple: choose the estimates that give the best predictions of consumer spending for the data used to estimate the model. In Chapter 4, we saw that spurious correlations can appear when we compare variables like spending, income, and wealth that all tend to increase over time.

scholarly journals Public support for empowering police during the COVID-19 crisis: Evidence from London

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia Yesberg ◽  
Zoe Hobson ◽  
Krisztián Pósch ◽  
Ben Bradford ◽  
Jonathan Jackson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Support ◽  
Specific Factor ◽  
Representative Survey ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Police Services ◽  
The World ◽  
The Face ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Over Time

In the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, police services around the world were granted unprecedented new powers to enforce social distancing restrictions to help to get the virus under control. Using data from a representative survey of Londoners fielded during the height of the first wave of the pandemic (April – June 2020), we explore the scale of public support for giving police additional powers to enforce the regulations, how support for different powers changed over time, and what factors predicted support. Aside from one lockdown-specific factor, we find that even in the midst of a pandemic, trust, legitimacy and affect were the most important predictors of support for police empowerment.

E-Government and Related Indices

2020 ◽  
pp. 1810-1824
Author(s):  
Kathleen M. Boyer-Wright ◽  
Jeffrey E. Kottemann
Keyword(s):  
Future Research ◽  
Government Services ◽  
Telecommunications Infrastructure ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The World ◽  
Efficacy Index ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Qualitative Analyses

The primary United Nations E-Government Index is a composite of three component indices: telecommunications infrastructure, human capital, and online e-government services, where the first two can be seen as enablers of the third. This study investigates the addition of a complementary component index for institutional efficacy, which is hypothesized to be another enabling factor. The institutional efficacy index is operationalized using existing measures gathered and made available by the World Bank. Statistical analysis shows that the institutional efficacy index is indeed a significant, additional predictor of online e-government services across nations. Following the presentation of basic results, qualitative analyses are undertaken to develop an assortment of generic national profiles. Preliminary analyses of changes over time are also presented using data from prior years, and directions for future research are outlined.

Test Case 3

2020 ◽  
pp. 107-115
Author(s):  
G. E. R. Lloyd
Keyword(s):  
Papua New Guinea ◽  
Social Order ◽  
Golden Rule ◽  
The Other ◽  
Test Case ◽  
The World ◽  
Similarities And Differences ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The One ◽  
Over Time

A sense of the difference between right and wrong and a corresponding recognition of a concept of morality can be widely, maybe even universally, attested, as has been suggested for the Golden Rule (treat others as you would have them treat you). But how far does the great variety of explicit codified legal systems that can be attested across the world and over time undermine any possibility of treating law or even ‘custom’ as a robust cross-cultural category? This chapter investigates the similarities and differences in those systems in ancient societies (Greece, China) and in modern ones (e.g. Papua New Guinea) to throw light on the one hand on the importance of law for social order but on the other on the difficulties facing any programme to secure lasting justice.

The Rise of Global Human Capital and the End of World Population Growth

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wolfgang Lutz ◽  
KC Samir
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Social Change ◽  
Educational Attainment ◽  
Economic Change ◽  
Adult Population ◽  
Social Structures ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
The World ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Age And Sex

This is the first of three chapters that present the population projections by age, sex, and level of educational attainment for all countries in the world with a time horizon of 2060, and extensions to 2100. Before discussing the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (WIC) projections, however, it is worth stepping back to consider how social structures change over time. While understanding the evolution of social structures is important under the conventional demographic approach that breaks down populations by age and sex, a more in-depth understanding of the changes in human capital requires that the interplay between different levels of schooling over time (the flow variable), and the changing educational attainment composition of the adult population (the stock variable) be taken into account. Societies can be stratified along several dimensions. In conventional social science the divisions studied refer to social class, race, or ethnicity. Demographers routinely break down populations by age and sex. Another important demographic dimension is that of birth cohorts or generations, that is, persons born and socialized during the same historical period. Particularly during periods of rapid social change, young cohorts tend to differ from older ones in important respects, and the demographic process of generational replacement is a powerful driver of socio-economic change. This process is analytically described by the theory of ‘Demographic Metabolism’, recently introduced as a generalized predictive demographic theory of socio-economic change by the first author (Lutz, 2013), building on earlier work by Mannheim (1952) and Ryder (1965). Ryder, who introduced the notion of Demographic Metabolism in a qualitative way, saw it as the main force of social change. While this theory applies to many stable human characteristics that are acquired at young age and remain invariant over a lifetime, it is particularly appropriate for studying and modelling the dynamics of the change in the distributions of highest educational attainment by age and sex over time. This perspective on human capital formation is the main focus of this book. This first of the three results chapters will highlight the results with respect to future population numbers by level of education in different parts of the world.

scholarly journals Gli erbari aretini da Andrea Cesalpino ai giorni nostri

2008 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Eighteenth Century ◽  
Sixteenth Century ◽  
Natural History ◽  
19Th Century ◽  
Systematic Study ◽  
18Th Century ◽  
The World ◽  
The One ◽  
University Museum ◽  
Over Time

The production of this book has been made possible by the collaboration of a number of scholars and the generosity of the Arezzo Provincial Authority. It provides detailed descriptions of the contents of precious botanical collections amassed by natives of Arezzo, or simply conserved in institutions situated within the territory. The book provides an overview of both herbals of dried plants and painted herbals from the sixteenth century up to the present, starting from the one created in 1563 by the Arezzo doctor Andrea Cesalpino. The first herbal in the world to be organised through systematic criteria, this collection is now in the Botanical Section of the Florence University Museum of Natural History, together with another small eighteenth-century herbal produced by a pharmacist from Cortona, Agostino Coltellini. Conserved in Cortona itself is another eighteenth-century herbal, this one painted by Mattia Moneti, while in Castiglion Fiorentino and Poppi respectively are the intriguing collections of the Hortus siccus pisanus (18th century) and of the Biblioteca Rilliana (late 17th century). Also described in the book is a herbal from the Convent of La Verna (18th century) and the Egyptian herbal of Jacob Corinaldi (19th century), conserved in Montevarchi. Finally there are also the modern herbals, illustrating the continuity over time of a practice that is the foundation of all systematic study. The book is in fact rounded off by an anastatic reprint of the description of the Cesalpino herbal published in 1858, which is still a seminal work for studies such as those contained in this collection.

scholarly journals TOWARDS MEETING THE IATA-AGREED 1.5% AVERAGE ANNUAL FUEL EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS BETWEEN 2010 AND 2020: THE CURRENT PROGRESS BEING MADE BY U.S. AIR CARRIERS

Aviation ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 123-132
Author(s):  
Kit Sum Cho ◽  
Guanying Li ◽  
Nicholas Bardell
Keyword(s):  
Fuel Efficiency ◽  
Aircraft Engine ◽  
Efficiency Improvement ◽  
The World ◽  
Efficiency Performance ◽  
Fuel Efficiency Improvement ◽  
Overall Performance ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The One ◽  
Air Carriers

The purpose of this paper is to see if airlines in general, and U.S. air-carriers in particular, are meeting their IATA-agreed 1.5% average annual fuel efficiency improvements between 2010 and 2020. To assess the fuel efficiency performance, a quantitative analysis was performed using data provided by ICAO, IATA and the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) Form 41 Schedules P 12(a) and T-2. The metric used to assess fuel efficiency is the one advanced by ICAO, namely Litres per Revenue Tonne Kilometre performed. Trends are examined over an extended timeframe to establish annual fuel efficiency improvements. The findings show that the overall performance of U.S. air-carriers from 2010 to 2018 has just met IATA’s 1.5% target with a 1.52% year-upon-year annual fuel efficiency improvement, with domestic operations showing a greater level of improvement than international operations. Such performance suggests that the U.S.A, and by inference, the rest of the world, are just likely to meet their IATA target by 2020. This achievement has largely been made possible through industry’s tremendous efforts to enhance aircraft engine technologies, implement operational improvements, and reduce airframe weight through the extensive application of composite materials.

scholarly journals Patterns of Education Financing and Debt: A Comparison of Two Cohorts of Canadian Post-Secondary Graduates

1996 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 23-46
Author(s):  
Robert D. Hiscott
Keyword(s):  
Community College ◽  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Student Loans ◽  
Post Secondary ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
College And University ◽  
Recent Graduates ◽  
Statistics Canada ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Recent Cohort

Using data from 1988 and 1992 National Graduates Surveys (conducted by Statistics Canada), this paper explores educational financing and debt patterns for recent graduates of Canadian community college and university programs. A majority of recent post-secondary graduates borrowed to finance their education at some point during their educational programs through the Canada Student Loans Program and/or other sources. The more recent cohort of post-secondary graduates (1990 graduates interviewed in 1992) reported markedly higher debt loads and significantly greater amounts owing two years after graduation, relative to the earlier cohort (of 1986 graduates surveyed in 1988). Multiple regression models are developed and tested to predict the amount of debt (in dollars) owed by graduates approximately two years after completion of their programs. Key explanatory variables of (1) total amount borrowed, (2) university or community college program graduate, (3) number of months not employed between graduation and time of interview, (4) current job temporary or not, and (5) current employment income were all found to be highly significant for the most recent cohort of post-secondary graduates. However, there are important differences in multiple regression results between the two cohorts which are discussed in detail in the paper.

scholarly journals Serendipity and strategy in rapid innovation

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
T. M. A. Fink ◽  
M. Reeves ◽  
R. Palma ◽  
R. S. Farr
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Change ◽  
Significant Role ◽  
Product Space ◽  
Historical Analysis ◽  
Building Blocks ◽  
The Other ◽  
Individual Experience ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The One ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Innovation is to organizations what evolution is to organisms: it is how organizations adapt to environmental change and improve. Yet despite advances in our understanding of evolution, what drives innovation remains elusive. On the one hand, organizations invest heavily in systematic strategies to accelerate innovation. On the other, historical analysis and individual experience suggest that serendipity plays a significant role. To unify these perspectives, we analysed the mathematics of innovation as a search for designs across a universe of component building blocks. We tested our insights using data from language, gastronomy and technology. By measuring the number of makeable designs as we acquire components, we observed that the relative usefulness of different components can cross over time. When these crossovers are unanticipated, they appear to be the result of serendipity. But when we can predict crossovers in advance, they offer opportunities to strategically increase the growth of the product space.

scholarly journals Quantifying Interagency Differences in Tropical Cyclone Best-Track Wind Speed Estimates

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (4) ◽  
pp. 1459-1473 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth R. Knapp ◽  
Michael C. Kruk
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Temporal Changes ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Spatially Inhomogeneous ◽  
The World ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Numerous agencies around the world perform postseason analysis of tropical cyclone position and intensity, a process described as “best tracking.” However, this process is temporally and spatially inhomogeneous because data availability, operational techniques, and knowledge have changed over time and differ among agencies. The net result is that positions and intensities often vary for any given storm for different agencies. In light of these differences, it is imperative to analyze and document the interagency differences in tropical cyclone intensities. To that end, maximum sustained winds from different agencies were compared using data from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) global tropical cyclone dataset. Comparisons were made for a recent 5-yr period to investigate the current differences, where linear systematic differences were evident. Time series of the comparisons also showed temporal changes in the systematic differences, which suggest changes in operational procedures. Initial attempts were made to normalize maximum sustained winds by correcting for known changes in operational procedures. The result was mixed, in that the adjustments removed some but not all of the systematic differences. This suggests that more details on operational procedures are needed and that a complete reanalysis of tropical cyclone intensities should be performed.

scholarly journals Visual mode switching learned through experience

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanjun Li ◽  
Katherine EM. Tregillus ◽  
Qiongsha Luo ◽  
Stephen A. Engel
Keyword(s):  
Visual System ◽  
Mode Switching ◽  
General Strategy ◽  
Color Adaptation ◽  
Visual Mode ◽  
State Switching ◽  
The World ◽  
Accurate Perception ◽  
The One ◽  
Over Time

AbstractWhen the environment changes, vision adapts to maintain accurate perception. For repeatedly encountered environments, learning to switch immediately to prior adaptive states would be beneficial, but past work remains inconclusive. We tested if the visual system can learn such visual mode switching for a strongly tinted environment, where adaptation causes the dominant hue to fade over time. Eleven observers wore red glasses for five one-hour periods per day, for five days. Color adaptation was measured by asking observers to identify “unique yellow”, appearing neither reddish nor greenish. As expected, the world appeared less and less reddish during the one-hour periods of glasses wear. Critically, across days the world also appeared significantly less reddish immediately after donning the glasses. This indicates that the visual system learned to shift rapidly to a partially adapted state, switching modes to stabilize color vision. Mode switching likely provides a general strategy to optimize perceptual processes.

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