Bayesianism: Objections and Rebuttals

2021 ◽  
pp. 267-286
Author(s):  
Norman Fenton ◽  
David Lagnado
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Legal Reasoning ◽  
Statistical Evidence ◽  
Subjective Measure ◽  
Probability Judgments ◽  
Legal Case ◽  
The World ◽  
The Bayesian Approach

While the laws of probability are rarely disputed, the question of how we should interpret probability judgments is less straightforward. Broadly, there are two ways to conceive of probability—either as an objective feature of the world, or as a subjective measure of our uncertainty. Both notions have their place in science, but it is the latter subjective notion (the Bayesian approach) that is crucial in legal reasoning. This chapter explains the advantages of using Bayesian networks in adjudicative factfinding. It addresses a number of common objections to the Bayesian approach, such as “There is no such thing as a probability of a single specified event”; “The Bayesian approach only works with statistical evidence”; “The Bayesian approach is too difficult for legal factfinders to comprehend”; and “A Bayesian network can never capture the full complexity of a legal case.” Fenton and Lagnado offer rebuttals to each of these objections.

A Predictive Bayesian Approach to Multistate Reliability Analysis

2003 ◽  
Vol 10 (03) ◽  
pp. 221-234 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Aven ◽  
A. Hjorteland
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Probability Models ◽  
Bayesian Paradigm ◽  
Bayesian Procedures ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
The World ◽  
The Bayesian Approach

In this paper we discuss how to implement a Bayesian thinking for multistate reliability analysis. The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analysing and expressing reliability, but in our view the standard Bayesian procedures gives too much emphasis on probability models and inference on fictional parameters. We believe that there is a need for a rethinking on how to implement the Bayesian approach, and in this paper we present and discuss such a rethinking for multistate reliability analysis. The starting point of the analysis should be observable quantities, expressing states of the world, not fictional parameters.

scholarly journals Selectivity of a fishing gear used in the catch of Anomalocardia flexuosa in the Northeast of Brazil

2020 ◽  
Vol 50 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Severino Adriano de Oliveira Lima ◽  
Humber Agrelli Andrade ◽  
Alfredo Olivera Gálvez
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Reference Value ◽  
The State ◽  
Fishing Gear ◽  
Selectivity Estimation ◽  
The World ◽  
The Bayesian Approach

ABSTRACT: A type of dredge was introduced as fishing gear along the extractive bank of Mangue Seco - PE from which the largest annual catch of Anomalocardia flexuosa in the world is extracted. This study was carried out with the objective of estimating the selectivity of the new fishing gear and quantitatively evaluating the length classes most compromised by the catches, especially considering 20 mm as the reference value. Specimens larger than this size are most likely to be mature. For the selectivity estimation, the methodology using codends (16 or 20 mm) and small meshed cover (2 mm) was used. To estimate the selectivity parameters, a logistic regression and the Bayesian approach were used. The transition between the state in which the specimen is invulnerable to the fishing gear and vulnerable occurs between 10 and 18 mm, using a 16 mm mesh, and using a 20 mm mesh, this transition is between 14 and 20 mm. Dredgers with 16 mm and 20 mm mesh compromise a large proportion of specimens smaller than 20 mm. If the intention is to protect this part of the population, measures such as total restriction of the 16 mm mesh and use of the 20 mm mesh should be necessary only in the months of less catching incidences, or increasing the mesh to 25 mm.

“The Old Settlers Have Bred a Great Quantity of Slaves”

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katherine Paugh
Keyword(s):  
Legal Status ◽  
Legal Case ◽  
The World ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Status Of Women

The prospect of legalizing Afro-Caribbean marriage in order to promote fertility raised troubling issues for abolitionist reformers. The previously obscure legal case of Mary Hylas illustrates the legal quagmire created by the uncertain legal status of women who were both married and enslaved. Mary was an enslaved Afro-Barbadian woman who traveled to England with her mistress; while there, she married an Afro-Caribbean man. After her return to Barbados, Mary’s husband sued for her return on the basis that, as her husband, he had greater claim to her person than her master. This case, and the closely related Somerset case, resulted in a legal fracas in which abolitionist and pro-planter lawyers each struggled to define the relationship between marriage and slavery. Mary’s story thus allows us to think more deeply about the world of problems that British reformers faced as they contemplated promoting fertility among the enslaved by encouraging Christian marriage.

scholarly journals The Bayesian Approach and the Results of the ISAR-REACT 5 Trial

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 231-232
Author(s):  
Adnan Kastrati ◽  
Alexander Hapfelmeier
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
The Bayesian Approach

Application of Bayesian Network in Safety Evaluation of Metro Construction

2013 ◽  
Vol 838-841 ◽  
pp. 1463-1468
Author(s):  
Xiang Ke Liu ◽  
Zhi Shen Wang ◽  
Hai Liang Wang ◽  
Jun Tao Wang
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Posterior Probability ◽  
Fault Tree ◽  
Fault Tree Analysis ◽  
Safety Evaluation ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Tunnel Blasting ◽  
Better Than

The paper introduced the Bayesian networks briefly and discussed the algorithm of transforming fault tree into Bayesian networks at first, then regarded the structures impaired caused by tunnel blasting construction as a example, introduced the built and calculated method of the Bayesian networks by matlab. Then assumed the probabilities of essential events, calculated the probability of top event and the posterior probability of each essential events by the Bayesian networks. After that the paper contrast the characteristics of fault tree analysis and the Bayesian networks, Identified that the Bayesian networks is better than fault tree analysis in safety evaluation in some case, and provided a valid way to assess risk in metro construction.

scholarly journals Modeling the City Distribution System Reliability with Bayesian Networks to Identify Influence Factors

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao Zhang ◽  
Liyu Zhu ◽  
Shensi Xu
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
System Reliability ◽  
Distribution System ◽  
Complex Problem ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Correlation Degree ◽  
Urban Distribution ◽  
Distribution System Reliability ◽  
The City

Under the increasingly uncertain economic environment, the research on the reliability of urban distribution system has great practical significance for the integration of logistics and supply chain resources. This paper summarizes the factors that affect the city logistics distribution system. Starting from the research of factors that influence the reliability of city distribution system, further construction of city distribution system reliability influence model is built based on Bayesian networks. The complex problem is simplified by using the sub-Bayesian network, and an example is analyzed. In the calculation process, we combined the traditional Bayesian algorithm and the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm, which made the Bayesian model able to lay a more accurate foundation. The results show that the Bayesian network can accurately reflect the dynamic relationship among the factors affecting the reliability of urban distribution system. Moreover, by changing the prior probability of the node of the cause, the correlation degree between the variables that affect the successful distribution can be calculated. The results have significant practical significance on improving the quality of distribution, the level of distribution, and the efficiency of enterprises.

A new Bayesian approach for QTL mapping of family data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daiane Aparecida Zuanetti ◽  
Luis Aparecido Milan
Keyword(s):  
Qtl Mapping ◽  
Random Effects ◽  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Variance Component ◽  
Mendelian Inheritance ◽  
Family Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Mendelian Segregation ◽  
Gaw17 Data ◽  
The Bayesian Approach

In this paper, we propose a new Bayesian approach for QTL mapping of family data. The main purpose is to model a phenotype as a function of QTLs’ effects. The model considers the detailed familiar dependence and it does not rely on random effects. It combines the probability for Mendelian inheritance of parents’ genotype and the correlation between flanking markers and QTLs. This is an advance when compared with models which use only Mendelian segregation or only the correlation between markers and QTLs to estimate transmission probabilities. We use the Bayesian approach to estimate the number of QTLs, their location and the additive and dominance effects. We compare the performance of the proposed method with variance component and LASSO models using simulated and GAW17 data sets. Under tested conditions, the proposed method outperforms other methods in aspects such as estimating the number of QTLs, the accuracy of the QTLs’ position and the estimate of their effects. The results of the application of the proposed method to data sets exceeded all of our expectations.

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