Life Without Glaciers

Glaciers ◽  
2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge Daniel Taillant

Climate change is accelerating glacier melt. In the same month that this book first went to the editors, scientists reported the irreversible collapse of a massive portion of the West Antarctic ice sheet at Thwaites Glacier. Thwaites Glacier had already been news years earlier when a massive piece of ice 50 km (31 mi) wide, nearly 150 km (93 mi) long, and 3 km (1.8 mi) thick—that’s more than thirty city blocks of ice stacked on top of each other—broke off into the ocean and became Thwaites iceberg. Imagine an ice cube about seventy-five times the size of Manhattan Island floating away into the ocean. With the new reported collapse, the entire West Antarctic ice sheet has now entered into a rapid and irreversible melting phase (Figure 6.1). Thwaites Glacier, as well as others in the Amundsen Bay sector, such as the Pine Island Glacier, form part of a massive ice sheet on Antarctica that is falling to pieces. This is an ice sheet larger than France, Spain, Germany, and Italy combined, and it contains nearly 30 million cubic kilometers of ice (that’s about seven million cubic miles; Gosnell, 2005, p. 109). As these colossal ice bodies fall into the warmer ocean, they will begin to melt away, eventually raising global sea levels by about 1.2 meters (4 ft) (Figure 6.2). The breakdown has come much more quickly than expected and has now entered into an irreversible “runaway process.” What should have taken thousands of years in the natural evolution of things will now be complete in just centuries or less. The Pine Island Glacier is a long, flowing ice stream in the northeastern part of Amundsen Bay, and it is the world’s greatest contributor of ice to the oceans through melting and calving processes. It is also another of the glaciers at risk of collapsing entirely into the ocean. Thwaites Glacier’s collapse is an indicator that the whole ice sheet may be in imminent danger.

2012 ◽  
Vol 42 (5) ◽  
pp. 709-731 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica O’Reilly ◽  
Naomi Oreskes ◽  
Michael Oppenheimer

How and why did the scientific consensus about sea level rise due to the disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), expressed in the third Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment, disintegrate on the road to the fourth? Using ethnographic interviews and analysis of IPCC documents, we trace the abrupt disintegration of the WAIS consensus. First, we provide a brief historical overview of scientific assessments of the WAIS. Second, we provide a detailed case study of the decision not to provide a WAIS prediction in the Fourth Assessment Report. Third, we discuss the implications of this outcome for the general issue of scientists and policymakers working in assessment organizations to make projections. IPCC authors were less certain about potential WAIS futures than in previous assessment reports in part because of new information, but also because of the outcome of cultural processes within the IPCC, including how people were selected for and worked together within their writing groups. It became too difficult for IPCC assessors to project the range of possible futures for WAIS due to shifts in scientific knowledge as well as in the institutions that facilitated the interpretations of this knowledge.


Geology ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
C.-D. Hillenbrand ◽  
G. Kuhn ◽  
J. A. Smith ◽  
K. Gohl ◽  
A. G. C. Graham ◽  
...  

2016 ◽  
Vol 106 (5) ◽  
pp. 607-611 ◽  
Author(s):  
Delavane Diaz ◽  
Klaus Keller

The Earth system may react in a nonlinear threshold response to climate forcings. Incorporating threshold responses into integrated assessment models (IAMs) used for climate policy analysis poses nontrivial challenges, for example due to methodological limitations and pervasive deep uncertainties. Here we explore a specific threshold response, a potential disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). We review the current scientific understanding of WAIS, identify methodological and conceptual issues, and demonstrate avenues to address some of them through a stochastic hazard IAM framework combining emulation, expert knowledge, and learning. We conclude with a discussion of challenges and research needs.


2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 2995-3035 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Schön ◽  
A. Zammit-Mangion ◽  
J. L. Bamber ◽  
J. Rougier ◽  
T. Flament ◽  
...  

Abstract. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is the largest potential source of future sea-level rise. Mass loss has been increasing over the last two decades in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but with significant discrepancies between estimates, especially for the Antarctic Peninsula. Most of these estimates utilise geophysical models to explicitly correct the observations for (unobserved) processes. Systematic errors in these models introduce biases in the results which are difficult to quantify. In this study, we provide a statistically rigorous, error-bounded trend estimate of ice mass loss over the WAIS from 2003–2009 which is almost entirely data-driven. Using altimetry, gravimetry, and GPS data in a hierarchical Bayesian framework, we derive spatial fields for ice mass change, surface mass balance, and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) without relying explicitly on forward models. The approach we use separates mass and height change contributions from different processes, reproducing spatial features found in, for example, regional climate and GIA forward models, and provides an independent estimate, which can be used to validate and test the models. In addition, full spatial error estimates are derived for each field. The mass loss estimates we obtain are smaller than some recent results, with a time-averaged mean rate of −76 ± 15 GT yr−1 for the WAIS and Antarctic Peninsula (AP), including the major Antarctic Islands. The GIA estimate compares very well with results obtained from recent forward models (IJ05-R2) and inversion methods (AGE-1). Due to its computational efficiency, the method is sufficiently scalable to include the whole of Antarctica, can be adapted for other ice sheets and can easily be adapted to assimilate data from other sources such as ice cores, accumulation radar data and other measurements that contain information about any of the processes that are solved for.


2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 403-424
Author(s):  
Fang Zou ◽  
Robert Tenzer ◽  
Samurdhika Rathnayake

Abstract In this study, we estimate the ice mass changes, the ice elevation changes and the vertical displacements in Antarctica based on analysis of multi-geodetic datasets that involve the satellite gravimetry (GRACE), the satellite altimetry (ICESat) and the global navigation satellite systems (GNSS). According to our estimates, the total mass change of the Antarctic ice sheet from GRACE data is −162.91 Gt/yr over the investigated period between April 2002 and June 2017. This value was obtained after applying the GIA correction of −98.12 Gt/yr derived from the ICE-5G model of the glacial iso-static adjustment. A more detailed analysis of mass balance changes for three individual drainage regions in Antarctica reveal that the mass loss of the West Antarctic ice sheet was at a rate of −143.11 Gt/yr. The mass loss of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet was at a rate of −24.31 Gt/yr. The mass of the East Antarctic ice sheet increased at a rate of 5.29 Gt/yr during the investigated period. When integrated over the entire Antarctic ice sheet, average rates of ice elevation changes over the period from March 2003 to October 2009 derived from ICESat data represent the loss of total ice volume of −155.6 km3.The most prominent features in ice volume changes in Antarctica are characterized by a strong dynamic thinning and ice mass loss in the Amundsen Sea Embayment that is part of the West Antarctic ice sheet. In contrast, coastal regions between Dronning Maud Land and Enderby Land exhibit a minor ice increase, while a minor ice mass loss is observed in Wilkes Land. The vertical load displacement rates estimated from GRACE and GPS data relatively closely agree with the GIA model derived based on the ice-load history and the viscosity profile. For most sites, the GRACE signal appears to be in phase and has the same amplitude as that obtained from the GPS vertical motions while other sites exhibit some substantial differences possibly attributed to thermo-elastic deformations associated with surface temperature.


Nature ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 512 (7514) ◽  
pp. 310-313 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brent C. Christner ◽  
◽  
John C. Priscu ◽  
Amanda M. Achberger ◽  
Carlo Barbante ◽  
...  

Geology ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 38 (5) ◽  
pp. 411-414 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Bentley ◽  
Christopher J. Fogwill ◽  
Anne M. Le Brocq ◽  
Alun L. Hubbard ◽  
David E. Sugden ◽  
...  

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